Bookies Blog

The new Hockenheim course should prove an interesting challenge for the drivers this weekend. It’s the first Grand Prix to be held there since 2006 and although many have driven F3 on it, they found it a new experience on this revamped course for last week’s test trials

Hamilton looked strong with a half second lead on the second day of tests. The press have been speculating whether mcalren will employ the use of the new fin engine cover for the race, it is said to be factor in Hamilton’s confidence at the tests. However the fin doesn’t perform well in strong winds and Hockenheim, a track suffering from such problems, seems a risky place to test it for real.

 After Silverstone Hamilton has taken up joint residency of the number one spot with Massa and Raikkonen. All three will be pushing hard in the qualifying rounds to gain the pole position. This can explain such closely calculated odds for the Pole Position market, Raikkonen, Hamilton and Massa are 7/4, 9/4 and 9/4 respectively. This doesn’t really leave much value in the market, the only hope to distinguish anything between the three is Hamilton’s consistently high scores in the Qualifying rounds but to be frank its not really worth it.

 As to the winner it appears just as tight between the top three but I might have an each way bet on Kovalainen and see if I can make anything more than a modest return. Paddypower have released the same odds for the top three as in the Pole Position market.

 This weekend the money’s to be found in the points finish market down by Glock and Button. I’d probably stay away from Button despite, I’m sure, your patriotic inclinations. Glock is a good choice though, probably the most experienced driver for the Hockenheim circuit he’s pretty good money at 3/1 with Skybet and Bet365. If your feeling adventurous you might take a gamble on Barrichello after his pretty spectacular performance at Silverstone.

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The Open due to start on Thursday looks to have a pretty high chance of rain, the weather report says it should only last 24hrs after such we may well be blessed with some sunshine. Still, its enough to throw some confusion among the ranks of golfers lining up for the biggest event on Britain’s golfing calendar.

Sergio Garcia has a lot to prove here at Birkdale, with the absence of Tiger one of his main rivals will be Padraig Harrington who landed two balls in the drink and then came back to beat Garcia last year at Carnoustie by one stroke. Harrington has had a good week as he opted out of the Loch Lomond Scottish Open this year in order to compete in the European open which he subsequently won.

Garcia is favourite at 9/1 on 888sport, Bluesq and Coral while Harrington is ranked fifth favourite at 16/1 (general). Both players made critical mistakes at last year’s Scottish Open despite both starting off comfortably. It’ll be interesting to see which one prevails this year, if you like the look of Padraig’s form recently then the bookies have offered pretty good value for the defending champ, but Garcia has had some training with Stan Utley recently and his putting is seen to be shaping up as proved by his latest win at the Players Championship.

And then there’s Ernie Els close behind Garcia with a short 10/1 with Totesport who pulled off a late win at the Honda Classic in March, pulling back from Luke Donald’s lead. He’s been looking reasonably good of late, apart form his win in Florida Ernie has also had a joint sixth in the Players Championship.

With the unwelcoming weather waiting for the players in Birkdale both Els and Mickelson are looking to sharpen their short game in order to get an edge on those who’ll rely on their drive to steal a couple less shots. Birkdale will be a real challenge for players like Garcia as no two holes are facing the same direction. Mickelson is at 16/1 (General) with his best price of 18/1 at Betfred.

All these contenders priced so close together and then add in a Lee Westwood at a 16/1 (General) it seems we’re spoilt for choice. But im inclined to take Garcia out of the equation due to the weather conditions and the difficulty of readjusting his shot according to varying strong winds, not that this is beyond his skill merely that the Spaniard cannot handle the psychological pressure applied at this level of play. Instead I feel Ernie Els to be pretty good value.

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Mark Cavendish manages to get his stage win just before the sprinters take the back seat and the racers head for the hills. Yesterday saw a cracking finish to stage five as Cavendish was forced into an early move by Thor Hushovd and subsequently went on to win the stage.

But now we move on to stages six and seven, as the overall gradient steepens the sprinters will begin to take a back seat and the GC’s start to get serious. Stage seven will eliminate any early weaknesses as the riders cross the Massif Central, it should prove the first real endurance test and a warm up to the dreaded stage 15 climb.

Alejandro Valverde seems to be the favourite with a price of 7/2 at bluesq and 888sport or 4-1 for stage 6 of the race but he still lost a minute to Cadel Evans in Stage 4. Alejandro, however, is expected to start shining as they move on to competitive territory. Cadel Evan’s is favourite to win the overall competition at evens (general) which wont be a very good value bet.

Cunego has been on hot form this season with a stage win at the Vuelta al Pais Vasco and a points win. He also won the one day Klaiska Primavera in Spain, not exactly a testament to his stamina (in Tour de France terms) but it shows he should have a strong backing for a stage seven win. To win overall Damiano is 9/1 at bluesq and 888sport.

Denis Menchov is a great choice, despite a mediocre start to 2008 this guy’s got the experience and an excellent form from last year with a yellow jersey and a stage win in the Vuelta a Espana and 2^nd place overall in the Volta a Catalunya. The bookies have him at 15/2 (Bluesq and 888sport).

For more Tour de France 2008 betting markets click here.

So Manchester United are favourites so far, with a spectacular season this year and a win at the Champions League. I suspect it has left them brimming with confidence and anticipation for next season, despite the uncertainty of Ronaldo’s position in the team. Man Utd are 5/4 to win the Premier League, this is a pretty confident move on the bookie’s behalf considering the tight competition between the top four.

 Chelsea are just behind with 2/1 at Bet Direct, it’ll be interesting to see how well their season kicks off with yet another new manager, but Big Phil’s experience and success with  Brazil and Portugal be sure to see the odds shortening on Chelsea over the next few months. It’s definitely beneficial to put a bet on Chelsea now while the price is only mildly extortionate.

And then there’s Liverpool at a price of 7/1 general or 8 if your with Betfred. Despite their standard of play last year they only came fourth, I think it’s a reasonable proposal. Liverpool have a talented side and they play consistently well but they still haven’t won a title since 1990, there isn’t much value in this bet right now but it wouldn’t hurt to check out their form closer to the start of the League.

As for relegation, Hull City are 3/10 the bookies don’t show much faith in the recently promoted team who’ll be playing in the Premier League for the first time ever. I think, however that West Brom are much better value at 5/4 for Canbet.

With Hull, Stoke City and West Brom all looking to be knocked out at the end of the season there looks to be some serious betting down this end of the market too. The competition looks tight between Stoke and Hull who were put down as 15/8 (best price) and 6/4 (best price) respectively to finish bottom. West Brom are looking a confident 11/2 on Paddypower, which needs be left alone.

There’s also some interesting odds on who’ll make the top six, Everton and Villa look to fight it out for the number six spot. The odds tell of close contest with Aston Villa at 1.7/1 (betfair) and Everton a 1.5/1 (betfair)

For more Premier League 2009 betting markets click here.

Anticipation is mounting as we approach next weekend’s Grand Prix at Silvestone and the possibility of a home grown champion. The three Brits attending (Hamilton, Button and Coulthard) will be heavily supported by a record crowd of 240,000 over the race weekend. Hamilton is looking comfortable with the incredible turnout saying “It gives an extra boost to your confidence to know you’re getting more support, and it seems to make you perform better. Last year I found the support was immense and made the weekend a lot easier to get through.”

Hamilton will be looking to improve on his fourth place position after incurring penalties in Canada and France. Lewis finished third last year at Silverstone in his first British Grand Prix clocking up some much needed experience. Hamilton is expected to have a reasonable position after the qualifying round. His 12/5 at Betinternet shows the bookies feel his consistency as a driver will make up for his faults on etiquette.

Jenson Button is also looking forward to racing at Silverstone despite only a 1.21.445 best lap time (9^th). Jenson is at 400/1 at Boylesports.

Massa feels Mclaren will put up a greater challenge for his Ferarri team this week at the faster, more flowing, British track. “At Magny-Cours, we didn’t see the real performance from McLaren in the race as they were always blocked in traffic, but for sure, they can be a lot more competitive here.” However Massa will be looking to retain his lead position after a win at Magny-Cours. He is 3/1 to win at Ladbrokes.

Raikkonen is favourite to win this year at 3/2 on Bet1128 and 1.6/1 on Betfair. However, with the top four places so closely contended its hard to find a good value bet on the winner, I’d say Kubica is potentially a good each way bet at 14/1 on William Hill and Bet365.

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The love square, Stuart looks to have diminished any chance of a Jennifer/Dale relationship. The general public opinion was to approve of such a pairing but Jennifer made her stance clear when she said “Dale obviously has a bit of an infatuation going on, which is very sweet, but it’s never affected our friendship. We’re still good friends.”

Sylvia probably didn’t help matters when she expressed her feelings for Dale to Jennifer. As a result Stuart’s odds have drifted to 33/1 at Bluesq and 888sport and Sylvia is up for eviction tonight and as a result she’s 250/1. The bookies obviously feel she’s outstayed her welcome.

Still leading the winner’s board is Kathreya at 11/10 (general) and 6/5 her best price on Bluesq. In fact the pecking order in the top four seems to have remained the same over the past few weeks. But Dale has drifted to 25/1, next to Mario who I’m surprised to see is still around, most likely because of a certain amount of animosity expressed towards other house mates. Tonight’s eviction sees Sylvia at 1/33 against Mohammed’s 15/1.

Speculation as to the last four housemates shows Michael dropped to 10^th place at 2.5/1 on betfair and Rex displays some apparent popularity in 4^th with 1.24/1. Why not try some good value at 13/1 with Dennis Rodman….?

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Yet again, the bookies payout as 20 wins for the favourites out of 30 matches results in Spain meeting Germany in the final on Sunday. Graham Sharpe from William Hill is quoted saying “It was the worst possible final we could imagine”. Spain finished off Russia last night with a convincing 3-0 at full time. They provided what seemed an easy victory confident in their superior statistics.

Such a decisive win has brought their odds down to 5/4 at Bluesq, Coral and Paddypower for The Final. In the mean time Germany’s odds have only slightly shortened from 5/2 (general) to 2/1 (Centrebet).

Germany and Spain are definitely two of the heaviest backed teams in the tournament, yet the bookies feel Germany can provide the best way out. After last night’s match, though, the Germans are going to have to take it up a notch in order to compete convincingly at Spain’s standard of play.

Half Time/Full Time – a Spain/Spain scenario here is favourite at 11/4 from Paddypower and 33/10 at Betchronicle, who seem to be offering the majority of best value odds at this tournament. However Draw/Spain catches my eye as good value at 47/10 on Betchronicle, it would mean a repeat of tactics from the Russia game, a wearing down of the opposition’s stamina with controlled one touch passing and then a series of aggressive attacks in the second half.

The odds for over 2.5 goals being scored in 90minutes are 6/5 (general) but Germany play a reasonably defensive game and its very possible they’ll look to take the lead from a trademark last minute goal, the best price for under 2.5 is 4/6 at Stanjames and Skybet. Its a tough call as Spain may change their play if Germany offer an early attack which could potentially result in a higher amount of goals.

Torres is set to be the first goal scorer at 11/2 Bluesq despite only one goal this tournament. To give him his due, he played very comfortably yesterday but he’s not good value at this price, instead I’d look up Guiza at 8/1 on Skybet.

For more Euro 2008 betting markets click here.

Russia stopped the Dutch in their tracks with a 3-1 victory which brings them to face Spain. It’ll be a closely contested match after the Russians played so well against the Netherlands. The bookies have Spain at 11/10 general with best value at Skybet 6/5 so it seems the underdogs are Russia here at 11/4 (Skybet) and 13/5 at William Hill.

Again, though, I feel Spain are unsuited to the pressure. Coach Aragones was effusive about his team’s resolve after the Italy game. This could show he was worried about what such a defensive game could do to his players. However lets not forget Spain’s crushing 4-1 defeat of Russia in the opening stages of the tournament. Definitely solid evidence of Spain’s prowess over the young Russian team. I think Spain will be playing a transformed team though and I would like to hedge my bets with the Russians.

For the half time/full time bets the bookies have pegged down Russia/Russia at 11/2 on Bet365, best value can be found at Bet Chronicle for 63/10. Whilst Spain/Spain is at 14/5 (Bet Chronicle). Its seems the bookies feel that, if Spain can bag an early goal, they should be able to hold on to a lead till the end of the 90minutes. However I feel Russia will play a defensive first half, and go on to score a late second half goal. The odds for this are 7/1 general, with best odds at Ladbrokes for 8/1.

Fernando Torres is placed at 11/2 at Coral to score the first goal, Torres has had five shots on target this tournament and only one goal. I feel this price was made with his premiership career in mind, not his performance in Euro08. However 7/1 at 888Sport is pretty good value for No Goalscorer.

The number of goals market is at 6/5 over 2.5 goals and 4/6 under 2.5. If Spain take control of the game early on we could be looking at a fairly defensive game with a lot of possession to the Spaniards, but I feel Russia will want to play an aggressive first half and may force the opposition to take more shot. Hence I feel these are reasonable odds.

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Germany – Turkey

Now we’re down to the last four and surprisingly Turkey are still in it. Despite numerous injuries to key players, Turkey have battled their way to the semi-finals where they now face a strong German team, if Turkey’s numbers dwindle even further the Uefa have stated they will call an emergency meeting. But it seems Turkey’s momentum could carry them through this next match too, Turkey’s sheer exuberance at achieving this stage in the tournament transfers the pressure to the better team.

Germany’s Coach Low said “After winning two or three games, the euphoria is huge and Turkey are extremely convinced in their ability,”. The bookies feel this wont affect Germany’s quality of play as they’ve marked them down as 4/9 (Coral, Ladbrokes) and 1/2 (Betfred) while Turkey are at 15/2 at Stanjames and Centrebet.

There are high expectations for Germany to be winning by the beginning of the second half with odds of 10/11 (general) and Turkey being at 7/1 (Ladbrokes, Paddypower, Skybet). To be honest, with four players missing from suspension and five from injuries I can see why an absolute victory from the Germans seems to be the safest bet.

Again the bookies are playing it safe with Podolski to score the opening goal at 5/1 with PaddyPower and Skybet. Meanwhile Semih Senturk looks to be Turkey’s best hope for a goal, especially with Nihat Kahveci absent from the squad. The bookies have Senturk as 10/1 (general).

For more Euro2008 betting markets click here.

We take a look at the current situation of Euro2008.

It’s safe to say that this year British bookmakers have taken a beating at the hands of Euro2008’s tempestuous Group Stages. It’s estimated they suffered a £5 million loss due to the start of this summer’s tournament. The bookies have estimated that at the beginning of the competition the odds for 18+ out 24 favourites winning were 65/1. Ladbrokes spokesman Robin Hutchison said: “We’re happy to be accused of whingeing because we’ve got a lot to whinge about at the moment - Euro 2008 has been a bloodbath so far.”

The Dutch raised eyebrows all around after a 2-0 defeat over Romania on Tuesday hence allowing a much more talented Italy to prove themselves against Spain. The bookies have Spain down as 6/4 (general) to beat Italy in Sunday’s match with the best value going to Bet1128 at 8/5. Spain have had three wins so far and approach their next match with confidence but their track record in major tournaments is far more inconsistent to that of Italy’s. The Italians have had a bad start but I feel if they apply sufficient pressure on the night they’ll break the Spaniards. The Italians may know there is even more occasion for this due to the seemingly unlucky date of the match.

In the last 24 years no team who’ve qualified with maximum group points have then gone on to win the cup. These previous statistics obviously shout a trend, but I feel tomorrow’s match against Russia will show the Netherlands as the most consistent team in the tournament. The bookies are favouring the Dutch at 8/11 (90mins). They’ve been outstanding on the field, earning decisive wins over Italy and France mean they’ve already proven themselves against top class competitors. Russia on the other hand weren’t looking extremely confident at the start of Euro2008.

At 22/1 general Turkey aren’t competitors for the top title but tonight’s match against Croatia should prove an interesting fight. Despite their defeat from Portugal, Turkey have played reasonably well in the tournament. I think 4/1 represents a good value. However if Croatia go through to face Germany for the second time this tournament Croatia would have a good chance to make the final.

For more information on the Euro2008 betting markets click here.