Bookies Blog

Last night Ulrika Jonsson caused the ‘biggest upset in reality TV history’ by winning this year’s edition of Celebrity Big Brother. Before the final show she was availble to back at 12/1, but even more stunning is that she drifted out to 66/1 with some bookmakers when put up for eviction with Lucy Pinder.

She was also matched at a high of 94/1 on Betfair. Cast your minds back to when Ulrika was a 2/1 shot to be evicted:

I said I though that Ulrika wasn’t a bad bet at 25/1 last weekend, because she is very funny. I was secretly disappointed to see her drift in the winner market, to a giant 66/1. She has now come back into 33s, which could be a better bet than Lucy to get evicted, which is what I expect to happen tonight.

Yep, Lucy also got evicted. We also tipped her up as a potential winner just after the show had started:

Ulrika Jonsson is certainly of interest at 25/1, because she is used to performing for the TV cameras. I’m not referring to her dubious love life, but her presenting skills. There hasn’t been any great money for her yet, but I’m happy enough with the current price to latch on now.

Recommendation:

2pts 11/4 Ulrika Jonsson Top Female

1pt 25/1 Ulrika Jonsson Winner of CBB

1pt 6/4 Verne Troyer Winner of CBB (Saver Bet)

Perhaps even more amazingly was the flop of Verne Troyer at 1/5. I thought that our saver bet on him would get us out of jail as the money came pouring in for him, but finally we have managed to oppose a losing short priced favourite. JLS and Martina Navratilova were both runners-up, but Ulrika has rewarded the Bookies Blog value-seekers!

4/5 Ray Quinn looks like he’ll oblige in Dancing on Ice, but the bookies won’t be too worried. William Hill have reported a profit of £100,000 from last night’s shock result.

bookies.com compares a wide range of odds for specials markets:

Dancing on Ice Winner Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Film Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Actor Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Actress Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Director Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Supporting Actor Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Supporting Actress Betting

BAFTA’s Betting

Things have changed since we previewed Celebrity Big Brother last weekend. Coolio and Tina Malone were live outsiders, but have since drifted in the winner market. We told you that 13/2 Coolio

is a fun guy, but there is always a chance that he’ll scupper his chances by being too aggressive.

Needless to say he is now ‘at war’ with some of the celebrities and has incited violence towards Mutya Buena, who is into 18/1 from 33/1. Verne Troyer is still the hot favourite, and has hardened into 5/4.

Tonight’s Eviction market has been active since Wednesday, when Lucy Pinder was attracting plenty of support to be evicted. She was nominated along with Ulrika Jonsson by Terry Christian, who also nominated Ben Adams, although the latter was saved by his housemates.

Paddy Power weren’t alone in offering 5/6 for both candidates to be evicted, but this morning the betting looks rather different. The ‘least talented’ Lucy Pinder came in for some more support and is now the 1/2 favourite with Sky Bet. ‘Most inflated ego’ Jonsson has drifited out to 2/1 with Ladbrokes.

I said I though that Ulrika wasn’t a bad bet at 25/1 last weekend, because she is very funny. I was secretly disappointed to see her drift in the winner market, to a giant 66/1. She has now come back into 33s, which could be a better bet than Lucy to get evicted, which is what I expect to happen tonight.

Celebrity Big Brother Next Eviction Betting

Celebrity Big Brother Winner Betting

Celebrity Big Brother Top Female Betting

Celebrity Big Brother Top Male Betting

New Year, along comes another edition of Celebrity Big Brother to our screens. At bookies.com we featured odds from Paddy Power ages ago, who had Ian Wright as their favourite. Now that the show has started (no Ian Wright) the betting has taken a rather different complexion.

The money revolves around Verne Troyer, who played Mini Me in the Austin Powers films. He was a serious contender at 3/1 before the first show, but is now the overwhelming favourite at 6/4 (William Hill). That’s a better price than Betfair, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him shorten further. Troyer was cheered when he entered the house - significant given that this show is essentially a popularity contest.

80% of the money is on him, so the bookies won’t be taking any chances. The 2ft movie star is sure to prove popular, but he may get overtaken in the betting later on. We want to spot the gamble before it happens, and I’m rarely happy with lumping on short-priced favourites. We opposed hot favourite Diana Vickers with 7/1 JLS in the X Factor, only for them to finish 2nd. The I’m A Celebrity! selection, Martina Navratilova, also finished 2nd at 8/1. Hopefully we can go one better this time around.

Ulrika Jonsson is certainly of interest at 25/1, because she is used to performing for the TV cameras. I’m not referring to her dubious love life, but her presenting skills. There hasn’t been any great money for her yet, but I’m happy enough with the current price to latch on now. Directors were hoping to also have Sven’s girl, Nancy Dell’Olio, in the house, which would’ve caused sparks.

Terry Christian is 10/1 from a big 20/1 before the show. He is the head of house, which entitles him to unlimited hot water. With Ben Adams weak in the betting at 6/1, the men have a very strong hand this year. That said, I won’t be backing the boys in the winning gender market at cramped odds of 2/5.

Jonsson should be backed in the top female market at 11/4, because her competition looks weak. Lucy Pinder and Michelle Heaton can be discounted at this stage, and Ulrika’s main competition is in the form of actress Tina Malone. Tina is 3/1 in the top female market, but has drifted to 14/1 in the outright winner market.

Blue Square are best priced for many of the long shots, offering prices greater than Betfair. Tommy Sheridan was last matched at 31/1 on the exchange, yet Blue Square go 40/1. The specials featured 1/2 that a celeb would walk out and also 16/1 for the show to be taken off air during the current series.

Recommendation:

2pts 11/4 Ulrika Jonsson Top Female

1pt 25/1 Ulrika Jonsson Winner of CBB

1pt 6/4 Verne Troyer Winner of CBB (Saver Bet)

bookies.com compares odds on a range of specials markets, including Dancing on Ice and Oscars Betting:

Celebrity Big Brother Outright Winner Betting

Celebrity Big Brother Top Male Betting

Celebrity Big Brother Top Female Betting

Celebrity Big Brother Gender of Winner Betting

The love square, Stuart looks to have diminished any chance of a Jennifer/Dale relationship. The general public opinion was to approve of such a pairing but Jennifer made her stance clear when she said “Dale obviously has a bit of an infatuation going on, which is very sweet, but it’s never affected our friendship. We’re still good friends.”

Sylvia probably didn’t help matters when she expressed her feelings for Dale to Jennifer. As a result Stuart’s odds have drifted to 33/1 at Bluesq and 888sport and Sylvia is up for eviction tonight and as a result she’s 250/1. The bookies obviously feel she’s outstayed her welcome.

Still leading the winner’s board is Kathreya at 11/10 (general) and 6/5 her best price on Bluesq. In fact the pecking order in the top four seems to have remained the same over the past few weeks. But Dale has drifted to 25/1, next to Mario who I’m surprised to see is still around, most likely because of a certain amount of animosity expressed towards other house mates. Tonight’s eviction sees Sylvia at 1/33 against Mohammed’s 15/1.

Speculation as to the last four housemates shows Michael dropped to 10^th place at 2.5/1 on betfair and Rex displays some apparent popularity in 4^th with 1.24/1. Why not try some good value at 13/1 with Dennis Rodman….?

For more Big Brother betting markets click here.

The big brother producers will be delighted by the turbulent start to series 9. Alexandra’s odds have already drifted to 200/1 on paddy power but I doubt she’ll be off for a while, the public seem to enjoy a bit of banter and she’s certainly the cause. Meanwhile, early favourite Kathreya has eclipsed the votes for Darnell and Mohammed at 3/1 on Betfred and Stanjames. I think Michael also has a good chance to win, the bookies have him marked just above Katheyra at 5/1 (general) which isn’t bad value considering the amount of people who’ve marked him down to be at the finish line.

As for next eviction, Mario seems to have captured the newspaper’s eye. Although a born schemer, he lacks notable intelligence hence landing himself in the public’s black books with his recent failed escapades. The bookies have him down as 2/5 (general). Steph, Mario’s co-conspirator has also landed herself in deep water, it seems her fraternizing didn’t do her any favours. William Hill has her at 7/4. Respect.

Top man – again Michael appears to have earned someone’s approval as the bookies chalk him in as the favourite to win this event. In the event of a personality failure the obvious choice seems to be Luke, but I would also keep an eye on Mohamed’s figures. Top Woman – at this stage I’d be unwilling to bet against Katheyra.