Bookies Blog

The new series of Strictly Come Dancing is fast approaching and the bookmakers have come up with their early odds.

Joe Calzaghe and his partner Kristina Rihanoff are the early favourites, priced at 9/2, slashed from the early odds of 16/1 before punters got stuck in. Retired boxer Calzaghe has been preparing for the show in an unusual way, deciding to go on a relaxed holiday instead of embarking on a fitness regime to get himself in shape. Calzaghe, who retired unbeaten after his fight with Roy Jones Jr. also has form in a public vote, winning BBC Sports Personality of the Year in 2007.

The second favourite pairing of Hollyoaks actor Ricky Whittle and Natalie Lowe are priced at 6/1 with Coral. And five-time tennis Grand Slam winner Martina Hingis looks good at 9/1. Outsider Phil Tufnell together with partner Katya Virshilas also looks worth a bet at 10/1. Tufnell has pedigree in reality television having won I’m a Celebrity … Get Me Out of Here back in 2003.

The third favourite pairing of Jade Johnson and Ian Waite are priced at 7/1 whilst Crimewatch presenter Rav Wilding comes in at 9/1 with his partner Aliona Vilani. Ali Bastian who also acted in Hollyoaks appears at 12/1 while fellow soap-star Natalie Cassidy trades at 18/1. Footballer’s Wives actresses Laila Rouass and Zöe Lucker are at 14/1 and 16/1 respectively. Craig Kelly, former coronation street actor, comes in at 20/1. Sports Journalist and BBC presenter Chris Hollins is another outsider at 22/1. Retired jockey Richard Dunwoody is priced at 25/1, whilst Eastenders actor Ricky Groves is priced at 33/1. The final two contestants are Jo Wood, Rolling Stones’ Ronnie Wood’s ex-wife, and Loose Women panellist Lynda Bellinham who are priced at 40/1 and 50/1.

Click here for all the betting on Strictly Come Dancing

St Helens are favourites tonight in their super league match up against Wigan and they will be looking to increase their lead at the top of the table. However, handicappers have given Wigan an eight point lead which might actually offer some value. Wigan are on great form, having won five on the trot after a tremendous comeback against Hull, where they found themselves with a ten point deficit after as many minutes yet still came back to win by eight points.

Not only are they on a strong run, which has included four comeback wins, the Warriors lost by just seven points to the Saints over Easter when they dominated much of the game and the same fixture at Murrayfield saw them score an emphatic victory over the old enemy in a 38-18 rout. Therefore it seems that the eight point handicap on Wigan may be quite generous.

The sensational return of Michael Schumacher to Formula 1 after Felippe Massa’s crash at the Hungarian Grand Prix has led to the opening of a number of markets by bookmakers. Schumacher has been backed in from 16/1 to 12/1 by Ferrari and Schumacher fans alike to win the Valencia Grand Prix.

However, it seems almost like wishful thinking that Schumacher will return after two years away from the sport to win his first race. The German will not be fully fit and won’t have as much experience of his car as the rest of the drivers in the championship. The Ferrari is still not fully competitive in this constructors championship and the 12/1 price tag on Schumacher therefore seems a little short.

Bookmakers have been putting up what look like pretty stingy prices for the German racing legend in most of their markets in the hope that furore surrounding his return will persuade punters to put their money on Schumacher despite the short prices. The German is available at 3/1 to be on the Podium come the 23rd August and he is 8/15 to earn points for Ferrari in Valencia. However, it seems the bookies are trying to take advantage of infatuated punters and there is very little value to be found in the markets at present.

The Buick Open kicks off in Michigan at noon today and there is plenty of betting to be had on the event. Two time winner Tiger Woods has made a late entry after missing the cut at Turnberry earlier this month. Woods has been installed as 7/4 favourite despite his recent shortcomings. This seems to be a very short price and it is worth looking for some each way value in the rest of the field.

Brandt Snedeker seems to offer great each way value, he has finished in the top five in his last three US events, coming second in the John Deere Classic. Last week he played extremely well in the Canadian Open claiming fifth and he will come into this tournament extremely confident. At 35/1 he seems extremely good value to challenge Tiger and he’ll almost certainly be backing himself to gain a place in the top five.

The second favourite Jim Furyk is also decent value at 14/1. He is a highly consistent player, who, given the poor quality of the field, should have no trouble placing this week. He knows the course very well and in his previous eight visits here, has finished outside the top ten just once. Also on Furyk’s C.V is a win here in 2003 as well as claiming runner up in 2001 and 2006. With Tiger on such variable form, it is well within the abilities of Jim Furyk to take top spot at Warwick Hills.

On the first day there is also plenty of three ball action to be bet on and the standout bet seems to come in the match up between Lee Janzen, John Merrick and David Duval. The 44 year old Lee Janzen has had some very impressive first rounds recently, in the John Deere classic he was amongst the leaders right until final round where he hit a disappointing 73. His competition, includes Merrick, who’s only past experience at Warwick Hills saw him miss the cut in 2007 whilst Duval has broken 70 in the opening round just three times in the 16 tournaments he’s played this season. At 7/4 Janzen looks decent value with Merrick his main threat.

After a season of group matches, the Twenty20 Cup has finally produced eight quarter finalists, the most formidable of whom seem to be Lancashire who topped their group by six points, having lost just one game.

This evening they take on Somerset who scraped into the quarter finals after coming third in the Midlands group. However, the Lancashire bowlers are going to have to be wary this evening. The Somerset batting line up is very dangerous, Trescothick and Langer form an impressive opening pair whilst there are a number of big hitters further down the order.

The boundaries at Taunton are very short and therefore Somerset are used to clearing the ropes, they will have confidence in the depth of their batting line up and should attack the boundaries. Therefore 6/5 with coral on the Sabres hitting the most sixes in the game seems to be a value bet.

Unsurprisingly, Lancashire are ¾ favourites to win the tie and although Somerset may cause them problems, they are just 6/5 to beat the Lancastrians and betting on the sixes seems a far safer bet at the same price.

Having recently lost 6-1 to Leyton Orient in a pre season friendly, Newcastle United have recently been hit by yet another wave of criticism as the club’s future remains uncertain.

Questions such as, who will be managing the side come 8th August along with who will own the club, are both unanswered questions. Former player and boss Alan Shearer said of the situation, “I am in limbo, I don’t know what is going on”. Shearer is 3/20 favourite to be the next permanent Newcastle boss which seems fairly short when listening to his recent remarks. Elsewhere Kevin Keegan is evens whilst current interim manager Chris Hughton is 6/4.

The team’s price to be relegated has been pushed in from 26/1 to 16/1 after the Magpies lost 6-1 to Leyton Orient on Saturday. The heavy defeat came after an embarrassing brawl, which involved 20 players, during a friendly against Huddersfield earlier in the week. The 16/1, however, still looks to hold value as the price on betfair has now fallen below 10/1.

Another equally surprising, but not quite as valuable, price is the top priced 7/4 for Newcastle to be promoted next season. This seems to be appalling value, the club are still paying out huge wages to a number of players. The turmoil at the club has meant that very few of these players have been sold and therefore the majority of Newcastle’s parachute payments will be spent on wages and not on adapting to the Championship. It seems you would have to be crazy to fancy Newcastle’s chances of being promoted next season.

Elsewhere however, the 9/4 on Middlesbrough bouncing back into the Premiership seems to be a far safer bet than backing their North East rivals. Whilst Ipswich, with Roy Keane at the helm, should be battling it out for promotion this season and are 3/1 to book themselves a place in the top flight for 2010. It does seem, however, that on Tyneside the pessimist at 16/1 is in a far better position than the optimist at 7/4.

This years’ ashes has already seen some real drama, first England’s tail end bravely fought off a dominant Australian attack to save themselves from defeat in Cardiff. Then, in the second test, the England team bounced back to a magnanimous victory over their Australian counterparts. Stereotypically, it seems that the two teams may well have switched playing styles, as the English side have definitely looked the more determined side do far.

The bookies, however, still put the Australians as favourites to win the third test at Edgbaston. The Australians are top priced 7/4 whilst England are available at 7/2, England are without their star batsman Kevin Pietersen and Andrew Flintoff’s knee injury may worsen as the series continues. Ricky Ponting will be pretty determined to show up Birmingham and the Australians may be worth backing.

Meanwhile Ricky Ponting is tipped as 7/2 favourite to be the top Australian batsman, whilst if Michael Clarke keeps up his recent form 5/1 with Ladbrokes in the same market may be a generous price. In the series betting both sides now stand at 5/2 to take the series and despite their one nil lead it seems England are the team to lay. Australia, despite their poor start to the series, seem good value at 5/2 and look far safer than backing a temperamental England at the same price.

We’re over half way through this season’s formula one calendar and Button still has a lead of over 20 points. The Red Bull team however seem to have found some form of late and have now pushed Button of the podium for the past two races. The Brawn team, meanwhile, have claimed that they have made ‘significant upgrades’ to their car and hence Button is now 11/4 second favourite behind Sebastian Vettel who is top priced 9/4 with Stan James.

However, it seems that the Red Bulls are the team to watch at the moment and therefore Vettel and Weber seem to be far better value than Button, who seems short priced at 11/4. Meanwhile, if Brawn really have improved their car then Barichello, who is 12/1 might offer some good value.

The other team to be threatening Red Bull, after their previous two consecutive 1-2 placements on the podium, is Ferrari who have been consistently improving throughout the season. Massa can be backed at 33/1 and Raikonen at 40/1, these two seem to offer the best value in the race markets and if you can find favourable each way terms then they may well turn out to be the value bets of the weekend.

The winning constructor market has marked up Red Bull as heavy favourite to win the race at 11/10 whilst Brawn are 11/5 second favourites. Once again however the value could possibly be in the outsiders Ferrari at 20/1, however 9/1 on a McLaren victory looks very short and as much as they say they’re car is better they still face a huge amount of competition.

The British Open Championship begins next week and a couple of bookmakers are going seven places on the event. Both Paddy Power and Boylesports will pay out on the top seven finishers in their each way markets which offers some excellent value in comparison to the five places paid out by other bookmakers.

What makes the seven places even better value is the short price of Tiger Woods, who is currently 2/1. Tiger’s short price means that there are a lot of players with some fairly lengthy odds who have a very realistic chance of getting in the top seven next week.

Ian Poulter seems especially good value at 33/1, he is currently trading at 28/1 on betfair and so if you want to play it safe, one could lay off the win stake of an each way bet. The Brit, however, has been playing very well recently and will get a good warm up at the Scottish Open this weekend and I for one will be keeping my win stake.

Elsewhere Rory Mc Ilroy has been backed into 20/1, whilst Lee Westwood might offer some each way value at a generous 40/1. However, remember to take the seven places, as a Paddy Power spokesman said “In this day and age it’s crazy that bookies try to get away with offering five places for The Open - why would you sign for a bogey when you’ve been offered a birdie?”

Newcastle United is one of the most unstable clubs in league football. No one, players and directors included, knows who is going to own, manage and play for the club next season. This speculation has led to the formation of a next manager market with a variety of potential managers being suggested as potential replacements for Alan Shearer.

Shearer is 2/7 favourite to keep his job, however, in the whacky world of Newcastle football club this cannot be viewed as banker, we have all learnt from experience that decisions most people view as absurd seem to make perfect logic to Newcastle directors and vica versa.

The latest boss to be connected with the club is Gianluca Vialli. Sky bet recently received a number of bets on the Italian. Today, Sky Bet spokesman, Helen Jacob said “This morning, out of the blue, we had a dozen requests for Vialli for Newcastle manager. We didn’t even have him in the betting so quoted 12/1, which was snapped up and he is now down to 4/1 second favourite behind Alan Shearer.”

It does seem absurd, Vialli hasn’t managed a team since 2002, when he lasted just one season managing Watford. It would seem like a bizarre appointment, especially as the club ownership is so uncertain, but you never do know what those Geordies are going to do next.

Other potential mangers include Darren Fergusen at 10/1, Mc Claren at 14/1 whilst King Kev can be backed to return at 40/1. The farcical northern club are 9/2 to win the Championship next season and they are as small as 11/8 to be promoted, however, if your looking for value, odds of 25/1 on the magpies going down seems a far safer bet.