This Saturday’s ‘Spring Classic‘ is the longest single day race at 298km, and is really for sprinters. The course is fairly flat, with a long finishing straight; but the winner won’t necessarily be the fastest sprinter.
The final hills can find some sprinters out, so we’ll be looking for cyclists who are well prepared and have proven endurance.
2008 winner Fabian Cancellara won’t be able to take part, whilst world champ Alessandro Ballan is resting. David Millar is another high-profile absentee.
All the major UK bookmakers are taking bets on the winner, and are also offering each way terms (3 places). Betfair offer you the chance to bet during the race itself.
For sprinters with lightening acceleration, you don’t have to look any further than the offical rankings for sprinters, which were adjusted after Paris-Nice.
The first 5 are all at the head of the betting, joined by 14/1 Mark Cavendish. Cavendish would be a huge loser for the bookies, but they have little to fear on Saturday. He cannot change his rhythm fast enough, and is still young at 23 years old.
Another name that punters may recognise is Lance Armstrong, who is 100/1 with Blue Square. His target is the Tour de France (4/1), and he admits that he’ll only be at 90% for the Giro D’Italia. We can’t ask anything more of him on Saturday than a few camera shots.
Daniele Bennati is the 6/1 favourite, but he failed to get a stage win in the Tirreno-Adriatico, finishing 11th. The reasoning was that he didn’t want to take any risks. He has a good team behind him (Liquigas) and has imporved over hills. The Tuscan has been in decent form this year, but the 6/1 is too short.
Alessandro Petacchi and Tom Boonen are both 13/2, with marginal preference for Boonen.
Petacchi has already won it in 2005 and knows the course well. Despite his 35 years he is in grand form and has the added advantage of having Danilo Di Luca as a team-mate.
Still, at 13/2 I can’t get away from Tom Boonen, who I have been following for some time now. He beat Cancellara in the Paris-Roubaix last year, but was caught up in a cocaine saga. He missed the split last year and only finished 28th, but I am confident that he’ll do better this year.
Too many question marks to have a big bet on him, but a small interest is advised.
10/1 Filippo Pozzato won 3 years ago and finished 2nd last year. He would be a decent bet for a Top 3 finish, but may lack the cutting edge to get seriously involved.
Mirco Lorenzetto may tempt some at 22/1, but his rivals will have improved since he took 2 stages in the Tour of Sardinia.
As well as Boonen, I will have a slightly bigger bet on Thor Hushovd, who looks brilliant value at 20/1 with Ladbrokes.
He won this year’s Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, so has some handy form to his name. He is an experienced sprinter, but may struggle with Saturday’s climbing. He came 3rd in 2005 and his confident Cervélo Test Team will back him on the day.
Long-shots are difficult to find, but the Aussie Allan Davis has a squeak at 40/1, having had a excellent start to the season.
Recommendation:
2pts ew @ 20/1 Thor Hushovd (Ladbrokes)
1pts win @ 13/2 Tom Boonen (Boylesports - N.B. Paying 4 places)
bookies.com is your best bet for comparing cycling odds:
Milan - San Remo Winner Betting
Milan - San Remo Winning Team Betting
