Bookies Blog

Denis Menchov look the lead in stage 12 of last year’s edition of the Giro, and the Russian fought off the prolonged challenge from Danilo Di Luca to win the prestigious Tour of Italy in 2009.

However, the likes of Menchov and 2008 winner Alberto Contador will both be preparing for the Tour De France, so will miss the Giro, and Lance Armstrong will be riding in the Tour of California. With a number of high-profile absentees, the bookies have installed Cadel Evans as the 13/8 favourite to win the Giro, which begins on May 8. 

The Aussie is a very versatile rider, but there will be plenty of punters who are looking someone who has still yet to win a Grand Tour. The world road cycling champion has gears on the flat and is a more than capable climber, but has never been under the spotlight before. The pressure could get to him, but he has the Team BMC to back him up.

Next in the betting is Carlos Sastre, who is attracting bits and pieces of money at odds of 9/2. The 2008 Tour de France winner has had a light season so far, and proved his aptitude for the Italian equivalent by finishing third last year. Sastre rides for Cervelo TestTeam, which managed to win individual stages in each of the three Grand Tours last year.

Sastre is a climbing specialist, and it may be more profitable for his fans to hang onto their cash until the hills. The first mountain stage is on 16 May, when the riders must get from Chianciano to Monte Terminillo.

The third choice of punters on paper is Ivan Basso at 5/1. The Italian can boast a win in this race, but his career has been tainted by a doping scandal. Will punters be able to forgive the Liquigas star?

Bradley Wiggins will have his backers at 25/1, but surely he will be saving himself for the Tour de France. Wiggins is 7/2 with Bet365 to win the first stage in Holland, a time trial in Amsterdam.

Personally, I think that Alexandre ‘Vino’ Vinokourov could be worth an each way investment at 9/1 (Corals, Blue Square). Vino had a year off the roads because he got caught up in yet another doping scandal, but his recent comments in the press suggest that he is highly motivated for more success.

Punters will worry about his backup from Team Astana, and the fact that Vino has been terribly inconsistent in these Grand Tours. However, I think that the price of 9/1 factors in those negatives, and that it is highly significant that he just recently won the Liege-Bastogne-Liege race. Vino is 4/7 with Bet365 to finish in the top 10.  

There are plenty of other markets being offered by the bookmakers for the Giro, such as the King of the Mountains. Stefano Garzelli is the 9/2 favourite in that market, but he could face competition from 7/1 shot Domenico Pozzovivo.

These are the last five winners of the Giro, together with their betting odds at the time:

2009: D. Menchov 10/1

2008: A. Contador 4/1

2007: D. Di Luca 66/1

2006: I. Basso 6/5

2005: P. Savoldelli 25/1

bookies.com is your best bet for comparing cycling betting odds.

2010 Giro d’Italia Outright Winner Betting Odds

2010 Giro d’Italia top 3 Finish Betting Odds

2010 Tour de France Betting Odds

This Saturday’s ‘Spring Classic‘ is the longest single day race at 298km, and is really for sprinters. The course is fairly flat, with a long finishing straight; but the winner won’t necessarily be the fastest sprinter.

The final hills can find some sprinters out, so we’ll be looking for cyclists who are well prepared and have proven endurance.

2008 winner Fabian Cancellara won’t be able to take part, whilst world champ Alessandro Ballan is resting. David Millar is another high-profile absentee.

All the major UK bookmakers are taking bets on the winner, and are also offering each way terms (3 places). Betfair offer you the chance to bet during the race itself.

For sprinters with lightening acceleration, you don’t have to look any further than the offical rankings for sprinters, which were adjusted after Paris-Nice.

The first 5 are all at the head of the betting, joined by 14/1 Mark Cavendish. Cavendish would be a huge loser for the bookies, but they have little to fear on Saturday. He cannot change his rhythm fast enough, and is still young at 23 years old.

Another name that punters may recognise is Lance Armstrong, who is 100/1 with Blue Square. His target is the Tour de France (4/1), and he admits that he’ll only be at 90% for the Giro D’Italia. We can’t ask anything more of him on Saturday than a few camera shots.

Daniele Bennati is the 6/1 favourite, but he failed to get a stage win in the Tirreno-Adriatico, finishing 11th. The reasoning was that he didn’t want to take any risks. He has a good team behind him (Liquigas) and has imporved over hills. The Tuscan has been in decent form this year, but the 6/1 is too short.

Alessandro Petacchi and Tom Boonen are both 13/2, with marginal preference for Boonen.

Petacchi has already won it in 2005 and knows the course well. Despite his 35 years he is in grand form and has the added advantage of having Danilo Di Luca as a team-mate.

Still, at 13/2 I can’t get away from Tom Boonen, who I have been following for some time now. He beat Cancellara in the Paris-Roubaix last year, but was caught up in a cocaine saga. He missed the split last year and only finished 28th, but I am confident that he’ll do better this year.

Too many question marks to have a big bet on him, but a small interest is advised.

10/1 Filippo Pozzato won 3 years ago and finished 2nd last year. He would be a decent bet for a Top 3 finish, but may lack the cutting edge to get seriously involved.

Mirco Lorenzetto may tempt some at 22/1, but his rivals will have improved since he took 2 stages in the Tour of Sardinia.

As well as Boonen, I will have a slightly bigger bet on Thor Hushovd, who looks brilliant value at 20/1 with Ladbrokes.

He won this year’s Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, so has some handy form to his name. He is an experienced sprinter, but may struggle with Saturday’s climbing. He came 3rd in 2005 and his confident Cervélo Test Team will back him on the day.

Long-shots are difficult to find, but the Aussie Allan Davis has a squeak at 40/1, having had a excellent start to the season.

Recommendation:

2pts ew @ 20/1 Thor Hushovd (Ladbrokes)

1pts win @ 13/2 Tom Boonen (Boylesports – N.B. Paying 4 places)

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Milan – San Remo Winner Betting

Milan – San Remo Winning Team Betting

Milan – San Remo Winning Nationality Betting

Tour de France Betting

Mark Cavendish manages to get his stage win just before the sprinters take the back seat and the racers head for the hills. Yesterday saw a cracking finish to stage five as Cavendish was forced into an early move by Thor Hushovd and subsequently went on to win the stage.

But now we move on to stages six and seven, as the overall gradient steepens the sprinters will begin to take a back seat and the GC’s start to get serious. Stage seven will eliminate any early weaknesses as the riders cross the Massif Central, it should prove the first real endurance test and a warm up to the dreaded stage 15 climb.

Alejandro Valverde seems to be the favourite with a price of 7/2 at bluesq and 888sport or 4-1 for stage 6 of the race but he still lost a minute to Cadel Evans in Stage 4. Alejandro, however, is expected to start shining as they move on to competitive territory. Cadel Evan’s is favourite to win the overall competition at evens (general) which wont be a very good value bet.

Cunego has been on hot form this season with a stage win at the Vuelta al Pais Vasco and a points win. He also won the one day Klaiska Primavera in Spain, not exactly a testament to his stamina (in Tour de France terms) but it shows he should have a strong backing for a stage seven win. To win overall Damiano is 9/1 at bluesq and 888sport.

Denis Menchov is a great choice, despite a mediocre start to 2008 this guy’s got the experience and an excellent form from last year with a yellow jersey and a stage win in the Vuelta a Espana and 2^nd place overall in the Volta a Catalunya. The bookies have him at 15/2 (Bluesq and 888sport).

For more Tour de France 2008 betting markets click here.