Bookies Blog

Rio Ferdinand has certainly not been a regular fixture in defence for Manchester United, yet he has nevertheless been handed the England captaincy from Fabio Capello.

Ferdinand is suffering from a back injury, which isn’t simply disappear in a matter of weeks like any common injury. Sir Alex Ferguson decided not to risk him in this week’s clash against West Ham, and he has already been ruled out of this weekend’s Carling Cup Final. United are the 4/9 favourites to lift the trophy instead of Aston Villa, and are expected to cope once again without Rio.

And so we come to the betting on England’s World Cup Captain, a market that will be settled when England kick off against USA. Rio is unsurprisingly the 1/6 favourite with William Hill, but the nature of his injury must put punters off from taking such a short price about the supposed ‘good thing’ in the market. I very much doubt that Capello would start Ferdinand at the back against USA if he wasn’t feeling 100%.

The layers on Betfair offer slightly more generous odds of 1/3 on Rio. If you are willing to play the bookmaker and lay those odds, you are effectively backing the field at 3/1.

In Rio’s absence, Steven Gerrard will be captain, as he has already been named as the vice-captain. Hills go 9/2 that he leads England out against the USA, which has to be the value bet at this stage of the season. He drifted right out to 9/1 from even money on the exhange, but has now been halved in price. Also bear in mind that Gerrard’s Champions League campaign has been cut short, and that his beloved Liverpool will be looking to bank a top-four spot in the domestic league rather than lifting the Europa League.

It would take a horrendous run of injuries for John Terry to win back the captaincy at 20/1, and 25/1 Beckham is more likely to start on the bench. Becks is 1/5 with Bet365 to make the squad this summer, which looks like a pretty safe bet to me.

Bookies.com is your best bet for comparing football odds:

World Cup 2010 Betting Odds

England Captain vs USA Betting

England Squad Betting

As soon as it was possible for Arsenal to draw Celtic in the Champions League qualification stage then it seemed almost inevitable that the two British clubs would meet. Fate obliged this morning and paired up the two clubs that will provide amusement and anticipation for most British football fans excepting those who actually support the two clubs who may be feeling somewhat exasperated.

Elsewhere Lyon take on Anderlecht, FC Timisoara take on VFB Stuttgart, Sporting meet Fiorentina and Panathinaikos will play Atletico Madrid. Stuttgart will be very pleased with their draw; there were some dangerous teams in the unseeded category and they have picked up by far the weakest team in the form of the Romanian Timisoara.

Other match ups are a bit tighter, although Atletico Madrid will fancy their chances against Greek counterparts Panathinaikos, whilst Anderlecht who are 1000/1 on Betfair to win the Champions league may struggle against Lyon.

The draw hasn’t had a huge effect on the Champions League outright betting although Celtic have been pushed out to 250/1 with the bookies after their draw against Arsenal. Barcelona remain joint 5/1 favourites with Real Madrid followed by a trio of English sides in the form of Chelsea 7/1, Man U 7/1 and Liverpool at 10/1. Arsenal meanwhile remain at 16/1 to win the Champions league despite the tough draw against Celtic.

You can see all the Champions League odds here.

The Championship begins this weekend and with it will come a flood of football match bets as regular football returns to our televisions. However, it seems that the stand out match of the weekend is to be played between Newcastle and West Brom. Both teams suffered relegation from the premiership last season and therefore they will be looking to bounce back up into the top flight.

However, where this may be a realistic prospect for the Baggies, for the Magpies it is quite a different matter. The problems that sent Newcastle down last season, rather than being dispelled over the summer have instead escalated. Owner Mike Ashley has been desperately trying to sell the club whilst both players as well as manager, Chris Hughton, are uncertain of their future at the club.

The club have been inefficient at selling their players which has meant that the club’s parachute payments will be spent on wages rather than restructuring to meet the demands of the Championship. The team have embarrassed themselves on the pitch in pre season matches, losing to Leyton Orient 6-1 whilst when playing Huddersfield the entire team were involved in a twenty man brawl.

There will be no incentive for the Newcastle players to perform on Saturday. Caretaker manager, Chris Hughton, has been assured that his position is only temporary and he will therefore have great difficulty controlling the unsettled players in the dressing room.

Meanwhile, West Brom are in a far more secure position, they have a permanent manager in the form of Roberto Di Matteo who has taken over from Tony Mowbray. They have also brought in a new striker in the form of Simon Cox, who scored 32 goals for Swindon Town last season. The team will be well prepared for the start of this season and should be heavy favourites to beat a shambolic Newcastle side.

However, West Brom, despite hosting the fixture at the Hawthorns this weekend are 13/10 to win the game. This seems a very generous price as they should really be odds on playing at home against Newcastle on the first day of the season. Newcastle meanwhile are 5/2 and the draw is marked up at 12/5. Check out all the different markets on the game here or take a look at the odds of all of this weekends Championship games here.

It’s often useful to look back through the pre-season betting to see what value you could have had if your crystal ball had been working at the start of August 2008. Seeing where the winners came from - and what the odds were - often helps clarify betting strategies for future seasons.

It was no great surprise to anyone that the Premiership favourites, Manchester United, won the title again, which was a 6-4 chance at the start of the season. You could have had odds of 12-1 that Manchester United finished top with Liverpool second while the MU-Liverpool-Chelsea tricast was a 18-1 shot, which looks pretty generous now.

Everton were 6-1 to win the ‘without the top four’ market, while in the top six market you could back Everton at 9-4 and Villa at 12-5, which in retrospect look fat prices for something that in retrospect was fairly predictable.

In the relegation market no team that went down was odds-on to be relegated; West Brom could have been backed at 6-5, Middlesborough at 9-1 and Newcastle at 22-1. There is a strong lesson to most punters there - betting the short price teams for the drop in the Premiership is a fast way to go broke. West Brom were 15-2 to finish bottom, which again shows why swerving the obvious choices of Stoke and Hull was the shrewd move.

The same is usually true of the top goalscorer market. Nicolas Anelka won the Golden Boot with 19 goals - he was a 25-1 shot at the start of the season. In second was Cristiano Ronaldo on 18 goals, who was offered at 7-1, which Steven Gerrard’s 16 goals took third place; he was a 66-1 shot pre-season.

Bookies also offer handicap markets in which clubs are given various points starts over Manchester United and Fulham and Stoke topped the tables, depending on which bookie you bet with. In order, the top five were Fulham, Stoke, Liverpool, Manchester United, Hull, Everton, Wigan and West Ham. These markets are almost always won by a team that the bookies expect to be hovering in or around the relegation zone who outperform all expectations.

What a weekend of racing! Admittedly the only Kentucky Derby challenger that we fully wrote off was 100/1 Mine That Bird, but we did tip you the 2000 Guineas winner Sea The Stars, albeit in the wrong market.

Let’s just hope that John Oxx takes his chance in the Irish 2000 Guineas before he wins the Derby, because 20/1 will be a very attractive price indeed.

In the 1000 Guineas, Rainbow View was a massive dissapointment but we tipped the second, 12/1 Cuis Ghaire. Perhaps our lovely picture of Richard Hills persuaded you to get on 20/1 Ghanaati.

The ‘Big Four’ all won this weekend for the fourth time in a row, but the accumulator still paid out a generous 6/1 with Victor Chandler.

Liverpool obliged against Newcastle (3-0) to maintain the pressure on Manchester United, but they can still be backed at 9/1 with Sky Bet for the title.

The relegation betting looks a lot tighter, but even 1/100 West Brom still have an outside chance at survival if they win their remaining fixtures.

Before Hull take on Aston Villa tonight, the bottom end of the table looks like this:

Middlesbrough can be backed at 1/4, but are far from certainties. They have been in woeful form, and haven’t scored in the last three games. Having said that, a victory against Newcastle on May 11 would be a great help for Gareth Southgate’s side. Their other two fixtures are perfectly winnable.

The bookies also expect to see Alan Shearer’s Newcastle get sent down a division at 1/2. The Magpies lack confidence and Joey Barton’s red card comes just at the wrong time. His season must surely be over. They have only scored once in the last five games.

Blackburn look safe at 33/1, but I think that 15/8 Hull City could soon find themselves in deep trouble.

Hull have lost their last three and finish at home to Man U at the end of the season. They should lose at Villa Park tonight (4/7) and have a shocking record away to Bolton.

To their credit they did very well to stay up in the Championship two seasons ago.

10/3 Sunderland have tricky fixtures, but have the bonus of a four point cushion.

Fulham are 9/4 favourites to grab the last available European spot.

Remember to scan the markets available on bookies.com before placing a bet:

Premier League Winner Betting

Relegation 08/09 Odds

Yesterday saw Roy Keane backed into 1/3 from 14/1 with Sky Bet for the Ipswich job. He held his first press conference as the new coach, and the bookies are already taking bets on how he fares in the Championship next season.

Totesport go 4/1 that Ipswich are promoted next season, something which Jim Magilton failed to acheive in his three years at the club.

Victor Chandler are taking on Roy Keane’s new side, offering 18/1 for Ipswich Town to win the Championship Title in 2010.

If you think that Keane’s mission will take longer than a season, you can take totesport’s 6/4 that Ipswich are promoted by the start of the 2011/2012 season. That’s if you don’t lose your betting slip down the side of the sofa by then.

Sky Bet go just 1/4 that Ipswich finish in the top half next year, but offer a generous 25/1 about them being relegated.

Keane is just 4/9 to see out his contract with Totesport.

bookies.com conveniently compares all football odds in one place - so make sure you always get the best available price!

Next QPR Manager Betting

Championship Promotion 2009 Betting

Championship Relegation 2009 Betting

Championship To Reach Playoffs 2009 Betting

Last night was the second time in a week that Rafa Benitez’s Liverpool have been involved in a thrilling 4-4 draw.

Who’d have thought that lightening would strike twice? A Paddy Power punter in Leicester.

The Liverpool fan had already netted £12,500 last week, having put £25 on the correct score at 500/1. 

Paddy Power typically offer huge odds on the crazy scorelines, but they are reeling from the two results. In total they have lost a staggering £750,000.

The Leicester punter could’ve checked bookies.com beforehand to see that Paddy Power were best priced again last night for the 4-4 draw.

This time he had £57.64 at 500/1 for the Liverpool - Arsenal clash, which paid out £28,887.

Tonight’s FA Cup Final taster between Chelsea and Everton offers the home side a great chance to catch up in the title race. Chelsea are currently 16/1 with Sky Bet.

Paddy Power have cut the odds on another 4-4 draw from 500/1 into 250/1, meaning that Bet365 are best-priced at 300/1.

bookies.com conveniently compares all football odds in one place - so make sure you always get the best available price!

Chelsea v Everton Match Betting

Chelsea v Everton Correct Score Betting

FA Cup Winner 2009 Betting

It’s a bit early to talk about the 128th FA Cup Final between Everton and Chelsea, but there is no better time to find a value bet.

I’m not referring the the FA Cup Winner market, which is unattractive from a betting point of view. If you had a wager before Manchester United were knocked out, then hats off.

Everton were 33/1 shots at the beginning of the year to crash the Big Four party, but are now generally available at 7/4 to lift the trophy on 30 May.

Toffees supporters would probably get a better run for their money with 4/1 in the 90 minutes betting, but 17/2 for Everton/Everton in the HT/FT market is a good trade if Everton open the scoring - a 7/4 chance.

Chelsea are a stand-out 10/11 to win in 90 minutes with Sky Bet, but the treble could be a better value bet at 66/1 with William Hill. 

At this early stage, the betting value lies with the 0-0 scoreline. The bore draw is 17/2 with Victor Chandler, which simply must be backed.

The last two Wembley finals have finished 1-0, but the surface has been criticised for being ’spongy and dead’. The surface and the pressure of the occasion make the 0-0 quite a likely result.

Sir Alex Ferguson wants the FA to improve the surface, but thankfully we won’t have to put up with his ranting before the Final. In the week preceding the FA Cup Final there are three Play-Off Finals.

We recommended the bore draw in the Carling Cup Final at 10/1, as it tends to be under-bet.

I’d still consider the scoreline if the best price available was 5/1, but when you compare odds online, the punter can find better value.

Following Man U’s exit from the competition, they are now 5/2 to win a quadruple.

bookies.com is the best place to go to compare FA Cup odds:

FA Cup Winner 2009 Betting

FA Cup Final 2009: Chelsea v Everton Match Betting

FA Cup Final 2009: Chelsea v Everton Over/Under Betting

FA Cup Final 2009: Chelsea v Everton HT/FT Betting

FA Cup Final 2009: Chelsea v Everton Correct Score Betting

Manchester United have an astonishing 5 out of the 6 players nominated for the PFA Player of the Year - hardly surprising in the season where they could win a famous quintuple (8/1).

That said, Steven Gerrard is Paddy Power’s 11/8 co-favourite and the Liverpool skipper is currently shading favouritism on Betfair.

David Ginola was the last player from outside the Big Four to last win the PFA Trophy in 1999, whilst 8/1 Cristiano Ronaldo has won Player of the Year for the last two seasons.

Ronaldo was the first Portuguese player to ever win the trophy, but no player has won it three times.

We don’t know how bad Gerrard’s injury is, but 13 Premiership goals is a remarkable achievement at this stage of the year. Liverpool’s comeback in the title race can be largely put down to Stevie, who deserves to be favourite.

Gerrard commands enormous respect from his fellow players, so much so that he won the award in 2006.

Nemanja Vidic has been key part of Manchester United’s defense this season. The Serbian been well supported with Paddy Power, but at 11/8, surely his value has gone.

Man U’s record 14 straight clean sheets could also be put down to Van Der Sar and Rio Ferdinand, both 28/1 chances. Their presence in the shortlist could split up the Vidic vote.

Vidic’s disciplinary record shouldn’t count against him, and on the plus side he has scored 12 goals in 142 appearances.

GERRARD is the pick, but offers no value at the price. 7/1 is a tempting price in the Top Goalscorer market, but we don’t know the extent of his injury.

**Update 23/4/09**

Ryan Giggs has been backed into 1/3 on Betfair, having traded at a high of 159/1 earlier this season.

bookies.com conveniently compares all football odds in one place - so make sure you always get the best available price!

PFA Player of the Year 2009 Betting

Premier League Winner 2009 Betting

Premier League Top Goalscorer Betting

Liverpool v Chelsea. Champions League. Again. 

Should be an easy one betting-wise; they met in the semis last year and both play in the Premier League.

A handful of bookies are undecided as to who’ll progress through this tie, offering 5/6 about both teams.

Corals report that they’ve seen equal amounts of money for both sides, although Chelsea are odds-against to qualify on Betfair.

Backing a team at 5/6 isn’t going to make you rich, and Wednesday’s match betting doesn’t look particularly rewarding. Liverpool are best priced at 11/8 with Paddy Power to beat Chelsea at Anfield, the draw is available at 11/5 and an away victory at 11/4.

Liverpool are 11/4 with Skybet to make the final and 11/5 to get knocked out in the semis like last year.

The sides last met at the same venue in February, with Liverpool winning in the last few minutes thanks to a Torres double. Florent Malouda thinks Chelsea are better, but the same correct score can be backed at 9/1. 

Torres is 10/1 with Paddy Power to score 2 goals or more.

In such a tight encounter, my preference is with the 0-0 scoreline, which usually offers cracking value. Boylesports are the only firm going 7/1 about No Goalscorer, which gives you room for the own goal nightmare.

Remember that Riise scored one in the 94th minute last year. He is no longer with the Reds.

I fancy under 2.5 goals, but 8/15 is a shocking price. Liverpool have scored in each of their last 18 CL matches, so preference would be for the 1-0 home win at 6/1 with Blue Square.

Another juicy price is 4/1 for the draw/draw outcome in the half-time/full-time market.

bookies.com conveniently compares all football odds in one place - so make sure you always get the best available price!

Liverpool v Chelsea Match Betting 

Liverpool v Chelsea Asian Handicap Betting

Liverpool v Chelsea Correct Score Betting

Liverpool v Chelsea First Goalscorer Betting

Liverpool v Chelsea Half-time/Full-time Betting