Bookies Blog

So Manchester United are favourites so far, with a spectacular season this year and a win at the Champions League. I suspect it has left them brimming with confidence and anticipation for next season, despite the uncertainty of Ronaldo’s position in the team. Man Utd are 5/4 to win the Premier League, this is a pretty confident move on the bookie’s behalf considering the tight competition between the top four.

 Chelsea are just behind with 2/1 at Bet Direct, it’ll be interesting to see how well their season kicks off with yet another new manager, but Big Phil’s experience and success with  Brazil and Portugal be sure to see the odds shortening on Chelsea over the next few months. It’s definitely beneficial to put a bet on Chelsea now while the price is only mildly extortionate.

And then there’s Liverpool at a price of 7/1 general or 8 if your with Betfred. Despite their standard of play last year they only came fourth, I think it’s a reasonable proposal. Liverpool have a talented side and they play consistently well but they still haven’t won a title since 1990, there isn’t much value in this bet right now but it wouldn’t hurt to check out their form closer to the start of the League.

As for relegation, Hull City are 3/10 the bookies don’t show much faith in the recently promoted team who’ll be playing in the Premier League for the first time ever. I think, however that West Brom are much better value at 5/4 for Canbet.

With Hull, Stoke City and West Brom all looking to be knocked out at the end of the season there looks to be some serious betting down this end of the market too. The competition looks tight between Stoke and Hull who were put down as 15/8 (best price) and 6/4 (best price) respectively to finish bottom. West Brom are looking a confident 11/2 on Paddypower, which needs be left alone.

There’s also some interesting odds on who’ll make the top six, Everton and Villa look to fight it out for the number six spot. The odds tell of close contest with Aston Villa at 1.7/1 (betfair) and Everton a 1.5/1 (betfair)

For more Premier League 2009 betting markets click here.

Yet again, the bookies payout as 20 wins for the favourites out of 30 matches results in Spain meeting Germany in the final on Sunday. Graham Sharpe from William Hill is quoted saying “It was the worst possible final we could imagine”. Spain finished off Russia last night with a convincing 3-0 at full time. They provided what seemed an easy victory confident in their superior statistics.

Such a decisive win has brought their odds down to 5/4 at Bluesq, Coral and Paddypower for The Final. In the mean time Germany’s odds have only slightly shortened from 5/2 (general) to 2/1 (Centrebet).

Germany and Spain are definitely two of the heaviest backed teams in the tournament, yet the bookies feel Germany can provide the best way out. After last night’s match, though, the Germans are going to have to take it up a notch in order to compete convincingly at Spain’s standard of play.

Half Time/Full Time – a Spain/Spain scenario here is favourite at 11/4 from Paddypower and 33/10 at Betchronicle, who seem to be offering the majority of best value odds at this tournament. However Draw/Spain catches my eye as good value at 47/10 on Betchronicle, it would mean a repeat of tactics from the Russia game, a wearing down of the opposition’s stamina with controlled one touch passing and then a series of aggressive attacks in the second half.

The odds for over 2.5 goals being scored in 90minutes are 6/5 (general) but Germany play a reasonably defensive game and its very possible they’ll look to take the lead from a trademark last minute goal, the best price for under 2.5 is 4/6 at Stanjames and Skybet. Its a tough call as Spain may change their play if Germany offer an early attack which could potentially result in a higher amount of goals.

Torres is set to be the first goal scorer at 11/2 Bluesq despite only one goal this tournament. To give him his due, he played very comfortably yesterday but he’s not good value at this price, instead I’d look up Guiza at 8/1 on Skybet.

For more Euro 2008 betting markets click here.

Russia stopped the Dutch in their tracks with a 3-1 victory which brings them to face Spain. It’ll be a closely contested match after the Russians played so well against the Netherlands. The bookies have Spain at 11/10 general with best value at Skybet 6/5 so it seems the underdogs are Russia here at 11/4 (Skybet) and 13/5 at William Hill.

Again, though, I feel Spain are unsuited to the pressure. Coach Aragones was effusive about his team’s resolve after the Italy game. This could show he was worried about what such a defensive game could do to his players. However lets not forget Spain’s crushing 4-1 defeat of Russia in the opening stages of the tournament. Definitely solid evidence of Spain’s prowess over the young Russian team. I think Spain will be playing a transformed team though and I would like to hedge my bets with the Russians.

For the half time/full time bets the bookies have pegged down Russia/Russia at 11/2 on Bet365, best value can be found at Bet Chronicle for 63/10. Whilst Spain/Spain is at 14/5 (Bet Chronicle). Its seems the bookies feel that, if Spain can bag an early goal, they should be able to hold on to a lead till the end of the 90minutes. However I feel Russia will play a defensive first half, and go on to score a late second half goal. The odds for this are 7/1 general, with best odds at Ladbrokes for 8/1.

Fernando Torres is placed at 11/2 at Coral to score the first goal, Torres has had five shots on target this tournament and only one goal. I feel this price was made with his premiership career in mind, not his performance in Euro08. However 7/1 at 888Sport is pretty good value for No Goalscorer.

The number of goals market is at 6/5 over 2.5 goals and 4/6 under 2.5. If Spain take control of the game early on we could be looking at a fairly defensive game with a lot of possession to the Spaniards, but I feel Russia will want to play an aggressive first half and may force the opposition to take more shot. Hence I feel these are reasonable odds.

For more Euro2008 betting markets click here.

Germany – Turkey

Now we’re down to the last four and surprisingly Turkey are still in it. Despite numerous injuries to key players, Turkey have battled their way to the semi-finals where they now face a strong German team, if Turkey’s numbers dwindle even further the Uefa have stated they will call an emergency meeting. But it seems Turkey’s momentum could carry them through this next match too, Turkey’s sheer exuberance at achieving this stage in the tournament transfers the pressure to the better team.

Germany’s Coach Low said “After winning two or three games, the euphoria is huge and Turkey are extremely convinced in their ability,”. The bookies feel this wont affect Germany’s quality of play as they’ve marked them down as 4/9 (Coral, Ladbrokes) and 1/2 (Betfred) while Turkey are at 15/2 at Stanjames and Centrebet.

There are high expectations for Germany to be winning by the beginning of the second half with odds of 10/11 (general) and Turkey being at 7/1 (Ladbrokes, Paddypower, Skybet). To be honest, with four players missing from suspension and five from injuries I can see why an absolute victory from the Germans seems to be the safest bet.

Again the bookies are playing it safe with Podolski to score the opening goal at 5/1 with PaddyPower and Skybet. Meanwhile Semih Senturk looks to be Turkey’s best hope for a goal, especially with Nihat Kahveci absent from the squad. The bookies have Senturk as 10/1 (general).

For more Euro2008 betting markets click here.

We take a look at the current situation of Euro2008.

It’s safe to say that this year British bookmakers have taken a beating at the hands of Euro2008’s tempestuous Group Stages. It’s estimated they suffered a £5 million loss due to the start of this summer’s tournament. The bookies have estimated that at the beginning of the competition the odds for 18+ out 24 favourites winning were 65/1. Ladbrokes spokesman Robin Hutchison said: “We’re happy to be accused of whingeing because we’ve got a lot to whinge about at the moment - Euro 2008 has been a bloodbath so far.”

The Dutch raised eyebrows all around after a 2-0 defeat over Romania on Tuesday hence allowing a much more talented Italy to prove themselves against Spain. The bookies have Spain down as 6/4 (general) to beat Italy in Sunday’s match with the best value going to Bet1128 at 8/5. Spain have had three wins so far and approach their next match with confidence but their track record in major tournaments is far more inconsistent to that of Italy’s. The Italians have had a bad start but I feel if they apply sufficient pressure on the night they’ll break the Spaniards. The Italians may know there is even more occasion for this due to the seemingly unlucky date of the match.

In the last 24 years no team who’ve qualified with maximum group points have then gone on to win the cup. These previous statistics obviously shout a trend, but I feel tomorrow’s match against Russia will show the Netherlands as the most consistent team in the tournament. The bookies are favouring the Dutch at 8/11 (90mins). They’ve been outstanding on the field, earning decisive wins over Italy and France mean they’ve already proven themselves against top class competitors. Russia on the other hand weren’t looking extremely confident at the start of Euro2008.

At 22/1 general Turkey aren’t competitors for the top title but tonight’s match against Croatia should prove an interesting fight. Despite their defeat from Portugal, Turkey have played reasonably well in the tournament. I think 4/1 represents a good value. However if Croatia go through to face Germany for the second time this tournament Croatia would have a good chance to make the final.

For more information on the Euro2008 betting markets click here.

The tournament is building momentum with all the heavyweights thrown into the bag together. Group C has proved an exciting contest, Italy have been pushed out of the spotlight by Monday’s clash with Holland and former favourites France have elevated to 12/1 at William Hill after a disappointing draw with Romania. Such an unsettled start has caused the bookies to completely revise their position in the ratings. The Netherlands have been pushed down to 5/1 on Paddy Power and a 5.8/1 on Bet Fair (to win).

Will Italy fall to Romania’s stubborn defence on Friday? Italy’s side is more than adequate to succeed here, but it’s hard to see them holding out to the psychological pressure when combining Romania’s strength against France and the underestimated Dutch’s success over them. Bet 365 has Italy 33/1 for Friday’s match. And it seems the bookies favour Holland in their head to head with France at 9/1 from Ladbrokes.

Germany are also doing a Cracking job of Group B, tomorrow could show an interesting match as they slug it out for top of the group with Croatia. Germany has been on good form recently but I doubt their group will present any real contenders. Germany will be untried if they reach the quarter finals and the odds are too low at 7/2 (general)

Portugal are facing a seasoned side from the Czechs who’ve been lucky to get this far judging by their game with Switzerland, I think Portugal will take control of this match early on and dominate throughout. Blue sq has Portugal at 4/6 to be champions. Yesterday’s match saw Spain deliver a decisive defeat to Russia and Sweden end 2-0 over Greece. Spain has shown that their side is up to the job with Villa’s hat trick paving the way for 9-2 tournament victory. Their next match against Sweden should prove reasonably straight forward.

Once again Chelsea have laid off a superb manager in pursuit of an even better one. Whether or not Avram Grant should have been fired is neither here nor there, although it really does make you wonder why anyone would ever support Chelsea. What is important, however, is ascertaining which manager will fill the dreaded position and what price to back them at.

The back page of the Racing post this morning reported how Mancini had become clear favourite for the position after finally announcing his official departure from Inter Milan. However, this seems to have been a rash public movement and does not take into account the fact that Mancini had pretty much jumped the San Siro ship well before our friend Grant got the boot.

So despite being backed into 5/4 yesterday morning he can now be backed a far more reasonable 5/2 with Centrebet. It’s a similar price to the one currently chalked up on Betfair at present, and if Betfair’s anything to go by then 5/2 isn’t particularly good value, let alone the measly 6/4 currently offered by Totesport and Victor Chandler.

However, rather than looking at what is bad value, it seems to me to be far more productive to look at what is good value. At a first glance, it looks as if Ancelotti has shortened up greatly today and he is priced up at around 9/1. In fact, the only bookie with the old price left is Ladbrokes who have him at a very large 14/1. He is currently just below 10/1 on betfair and therefore looks pretty solid value. One, however, should be wary, Ladbrokes often have extremely good inside information and may know something the other bookmakers do not. Still, if you are going to have a punt then it seems to me this is the one you should have.

In markets like this it is always important to follow the clever money, although following Mancini yesterday may not have been too wise, the occasional bit of research helps a bit as well. So, make sure you keep watching which managers are being pushed out and which ones are shortening. Click here to see how the prices are moving now.

It is the first all English Champions League Final, although for the last few years it has seemed that it was just a matter of time before the inevitable occurred. The Premier League has dominated Europe this year and it looks as if they are set to continue the trend.

United of course are favourites to win the game, they have consistently outplayed Chelsea throughout the season and have with the occasional exception of Arsenal looked by far and away the best team in England. Their European campaign has been no different and it is undeniable that the team that deserves the Champions League this season is United as they have quite obviously been the best team in Europe.

However, we all know that this is not the way the world works and United are going to have to show one last display of brilliance if they are going to take both the Champions League as well as the Premier League title this season. Chelsea are not going to go into the game lying down and if both Drogba and Terry return from injury then it really will be game on.

United are 6/4 to win in the 90 minutes and Chelsea are 9/4 to win the game in the same time. Ronaldo is top priced 15/8 to score in the game and can be backed at 11/2 to score first. It’s not a bad price considering he has scored 41 goals so far this season and he has often been seen at odds on to score so 15/8 doesn’t seem too unfair a price.

The competition’s Golden Boot seems likely to be added to Ronaldo’s currently bulging trophy cabinet. He has scored one more goal than Drogba this season in the Champions League and may be looking to extend that lead in the final. There are questions being asked about Drogba’s fitness as well as his allegiances to his club, so if Drogba does not play on Wednesday then Ronaldo will claim the trophy without having to do any further scoring in the final. He is 1/3 with Corals to win the Boot, which again appears to hold value as the best Betfair can currently muster is 1/4.

I, like most people, can’t see far past Man U, they are still a tight team and, as a club, will be completely focused on the game next Wednesday. I don’t get the same impression from the Chelsea camp, it seems that their players are currently more interested either on the transfer market or on booking their holidays to Malaga. I just need to decide whether to back them at 5/4 to win in 90 minutes or whether to back them at 4/5 to win the cup.

Click here now to view all the betting markets on this years Champions League Final.

On Wednesday evening Old Trafford will host the 2008 UEFA Cup final between Zenit St Petersburg and Rangers Football Club. The two clubs couldn’t be further apart geographically and the trip from Glasgow to Manchester will surely take far less of a toll on Walter Smith’s men than it will on Zenit who will have had to fly almost four hours to Manchester and may have difficulty acclimatising to the humid weather.

Zenit, however, are still heavy favourites to win the game at 13/10 top price from William Hill. Zenit are obviously concentrating solely on winning this competition, they have not concentrated on their domestic league and are therefore third from bottom in their league.

Rangers are currently battling with Celtic to win the Scottish Premier Division and have are playing Queen of the South in the final of the Scottish Cup. They have already won the league cup and are in a position where they could win all four possible pieces of silverware. However, with so much for them to concentrate on, the 5/2 odds on them winning are indicative of how difficult a game this will be for Rangers.

The UEFA Cup Golden Boot seems looks to be shared between Luca Toni and Pavel Pogrebnyak, who have both scored 10 goals in the competition, although a yellow card in Pogrebnyak’s semi final has seem him disqualified from the final.

Click here to check out all the UEFA cup betting markets.

With Derby already in preparation for next years Championship campaign there are just two other unfortunate teams who will be joining them in the Championship next season. Which teams these will be is anybody’s guess, especially since many of the contenders have begun to show some terrific form recently.

Fulham who many thought were as likely to survive as Derby have produced some stunning results of late and are just three points away from safety. Still priced at 1/6 odds on though I am not sure they are the safest of bets at that price as a win against Birmingham next week could see them in an extremely promising position.

Birmingham meanwhile are on rather poor form and were extremely fortunate that Liverpool brought their first team players on so late in the game at the weekend to give them a point. They have a tough game against an in form Fulham coming up and will need to beat Blackburn after that to stay up. In my opinion I don’t think that they are likely to do this and an evens bet on them going down looks good value in my opinion.

Reading are guaranteed at least one win in their next two games as they play Derby on the last game of the season. However, with their appalling goal difference one might wonder if it is enough to keep them safe and Steve Coppell will certainly want to take some points from the game against Tottenham at the weekend. Bolton are not as lucky as Reading, with the same number of points they have very tough games against Sunderland and Chelsea and could easily lose to both, leaving them in deep trouble if Fulham and Reading manage to win their next few games. It seems to me that Bolton at 7/4 is certainly a fair punt but I wouldn’t want to touch reading at 12/5.

Boro and Wigan meanwhile with 36 and 37 points each respectively will secretly be thinking that they have done enough to stay up and as they are both over 40/1 to go down with most bookmakers it looks as if the bookies agree. Still, a couple more points in the last few games for them wouldn’t hurt and they’re not foolish enough to stop trying just yet.

Check the odds on all the Premier League Markets here