Bookies Blog

This week on Bookies Blog we have been looking ahead to the weekend’s betting, and who can blame us. The top betting event during this week is probably the Arnold Palmer Invitational (Golf), in which Tiger Woods is the hot 5/2 favourite to defend his crown.

Friday’s practice sessions should tell us a bit more of what to expect from each team this weekend in the F1, but you can even bet on those. Bet365 go 4/1 about the hyped Jenson Button topping the 1st session.

The BBC have the TV rights to F1 this year, and many fans will be up on Sunday morning to watch the Melbourne GP live at 7am UK time.

For those that won’t be betting in running, there will be a replay at 1pm.

In the last 3 runnings of the race, the winners have all gone on to win the Drivers’ Championship. Kimi Raikkonen is the 4/1 favourite for the Drivers Championship this year, yet he is only the 6/1 second favourite for the race.

Ferrari look a very solid bet at 5/4 to win the Constructors Title. One of the biggest gambles of the year was Brawn GP who posted some impressive times in Barcelona, but Centrebet are now taking them on at 10/1.

Button’s only ever win came in the 2006 Hungarian GP, and I’m extremely eager to take him on this weekend. True, 4/1 could look like a massive price on Sunday, but for me it’s too short given what little we know about Brawn.

If you do think he has the fastest car, perhaps Fastest Lap would be a better bet at the same price.

McLaren are having trouble with the rear wing of their MP4-24, so I won’t be backing them this weekend. Stan James are sensibly taking on both Hamilton and Kovalainen at 11/1 and 50/1 respectively.

Ferrari have adapted well to the new regulations (or so we are made to believe by the press), and 7/1 for Felipe Massa looks like a fair enough each way bet.

Toyota have escaped under the radar again, but are 6/1 with Blue Square to win the Constructors Championship without Ferrari, McLaren and BMW. Readers of this blog will remember how we followed Timo Glock last year successfully, and I will be watching with interest this Sunday.

Jarno Trulli reckons that the new Toyota is the best that he has driven in pre-season testing, and is raring to go. Trulli is marginally preferred to Glock in the match bet at 5/6, and is 33/1 with Ladbrokes to win outright. He is worth an each way interest and is 5/2 to win a race this season.

We’ll also back him at 11/10 for a points finish.

Fisichella and Sutil are 8/1 co-favourites in the first to retire market, with Lewis Hamilton a massive 20/1! Ladbrokes go 5/6 that there is a safety car.

Recommendation:

1pt each way @ 33/1 J. Trulli Race Winner (Ladbrokes, 1-2-3, 1/4 odds)

3pts @ 11/10 J. Trulli Points Finish (Various)

bookies.com is your best bet for comparing Formula One betting odds:

Drivers’ Championship 2009 Betting

Constructors’ Championship 2009 Betting

Australian GP Race Winner Betting

Australian GP Pole Position Betting

Australian GP Fastest Lap Betting

Australian GP Points Finish Betting

Formula 1 betting has gathered momentum ahead of the Australian GP on March 29, but this year the betting story isn’t McLaren or Ferrari.

Well Lewis Hamilton is drifting out to 9/2 in the Drivers Championship is pretty significant, having been as short as 2/1, but this year is all about Brawn GP, the ex-Honda team led by Ross Brawn.

Last week they were 150/1 in the Constructor’s Championship, but now they are as short as 9/2 with bet365. Centrebet are best priced at 10/1, but aren’t offering any each way terms.

They have done very well in the testing, with Rubens Barrichello thrashing the likes of Felipe Massa (Ferrari) in Barcelona. Team-mate Jenson Button is also also topping the times, and is a crazy 11/1 to win the Drivers Championship.

The car is very well styled and has taken a lot of work. Obviously we don’t know how much petrol they were testing the cars with.

If you were interested in jumping aboard the gamble, I’d prefer to be on Barrichello at a much bigger price - 25/1. A classic case of the British public over-betting their man (e.g. Andy Murray, Australian Open fav. 2009). Rubens has 9 career wins to Jenson’s 1, and is a tempting 4/1 in the Drivers Championship without the Big 6.

Jenson Button is the 5/2 favourite for the Australian GP, but Fernando Alonso has also been supported into 9/1. Renault have progressed well with the R29, but will probably be outclassed. Alonso reckons that both BMW and Toyota will be quicker.

bookies.com is your best bet for comparing Formula 1 odds -

Drivers Championship Betting

Drivers Championship W/O Big 6 Betting

Constructors Championship Betting

Australian GP Betting

A sensational weekend of betting, marred only by hard luck in the Chinese Grand Prix. Lewis Hamilton finally conquered his Asian demons, and is 1/7 to take the Drivers Championship. Even if Massa wins the Brazilian GP, Hamilton only needs to finish 5th. The Ferrari driver is 6/4 favourite with Ladbrokes for victory at Interlagos - a decent price for his home GP.

Alonso was a commendable 4th in Shanghai, not sufficient for our each way bet, but still rewarding for punters who back him at evens to win the grand prix with the ‘Big 6′. Bourdais shortened to evens for a points finsh after qualifying, but his race was over following an early incident with Jarno Trulli.

Our ante-post fancy for the Melbourne Cup is Mad Rush, backed at 16/1. Following an unlucky fourth in the Caulfield Cup on Saturday from a terrible draw, he has now been promoted to favoritism at 4/1! Let’s not forget that our biggest bet to date, Aidan O’Brien not to train 26 or more Group 1 winners in 2008, is doing very well. We backed it at evens, now William Hill go 1/4! The shake up comes after Rip Van Winkle flopped in the Dewhurst, heavily backed at 11/8.

Duke of Marmalade has been confirmed for the Breeders Cup Classic, in which he is 12/1. Johnny Murtagh will almost certainly ride the Duke, because 7/1 Henrythenavigator isn’t proven over the 1m2f trip. We told you 11 days ago that the Duke “cannot be backed at 4/1 in the Breeders’ Cup Turf given that he may opt for the Classic.” I cannot imagine that you will get 3/1 for Curlin on the day, so take it now at Ladbrokes. Our selection for the Breeders’ Cup Turf was 12/1 Winchester, although I backed him the following day at Ladbrokes at 14/1. He has shortened to 10/1, but is as short as 6/1 with some firms.

Meanwhile in tonight’s Premier League clash, Manchester City travel to Newcastle, who have lost their last three matches at St. James’ Park. Don’t be too impressed by Newcastle’s apparently ‘gutsy’ draw at Everton - Moyes’ side haven’t won at home in four tries. The form pick is certainly an away win, 6/4 this morning but now 11/8. The home side make little appeal at 23/10, so I’ll side with a Man City win. Even with Michael Owen missing due to a groin strain, I still think this will be a high scoring match.

Back over 2.5 goals at 5/6 with Stan James, because both teams have woeful defensive records. If asked to recommend a player in the First Goalscorer market, it would have to be a Man City player, as we are supporting them to win the Premier League without the Big 4. 6/1 Robinho and 7/1 Jo are obvious choices, but I’d prefer a bigger price for an each way selection. Shaun Wright-Phillips is 10/1, but I’ll take Stephen Ireland at a whopping 16/1.

Recommendation:

3pts 6/4 Massa to win the Brazilian GP

3pts 3/1 Curlin to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic

4pts 5/6 Over 2.5 goals Newcastle v Man City

1pt each way 16/1 Stephen Ireland to score first

bookies.com will enable you to find the best odds for all of the Breeders’ Cup Races and the forthcoming Champions League Fixtures.

Brazilian GP Winner Betting

F1 Drivers Championship Betting

Melbourne Cup Betting

Breeders Cup Turf Betting

Breeders Cup Classic Betting

Newcastle v Man City Match Result Betting

Newcastle v Man City First Goalscorer Betting

Newcastle v Man City HT/FT Betting

Newcastle v Man City to score 2+ Betting

Newcastle v Man City Correct Score Betting

Lewis Hamilton heads the outright winner betting at 7/4, but his form in Asia this year reads: 5-13-3-12. Patriotism can badly skew the betting markets in Britain, just as Stan James have cut England to win the 2010 World Cup from 10/1 to 7/1. Lewis topped Friday’s second practice in Shanghai, and will hopefully drive more conservatively after his antics in Japan cost my bet on Kimi Raikonnen.

Raikonnen is generally 6/1 this weekend, although I am concerned about the car’s speed. The two Ferraris finished sixth and eighth in the practice, which doesn’t inspire betting confidence. Nevertheless, they are 11/10 to be the winning constructor this weekend.

I accept that the odds won’t be as generous as Singapore, but 11/1 Fernando Alonso has to enter calculations. The Renaults had plenty of pace in the practice, finishing 3rd and 4th. I would want each way terms, so the best we can do is 9/1 with Blue Square. Simply betting on him at 8/5 to get a podium finish makes little appeal, never mind how erratic the Big 4 have been.

Heikki Kovalainen was showing good speed last weekend until he suffered from a rare technical glitch, so is also an interesting each way prospect at 16/1 with Paddy Power.

My big bet this weekend is on Sébastien Bourdais to finish in the points at 13/8. Bourdais was in the top 3 in practice today until he ended up in the gravel, which meant that he missed the last 11 minutes. He still managed a creditable 7th place. The Frenchman was harshly penalised 25 seconds for an incident with Felipe Massa, which meant that he just missed out on a points finish.  The team’s technical director, Laurent Mekie, believes that the Chinese GP will be more favourable for the team. The Toro Rosso team haven’t guaranteed Bourdais a place in the team for next season, and with the F1 season drawing to a close, he will be giving it his all.

Recommendation:

5pts 13/8 Bourdais Points Finish

1pt ew 9/1 Alonso to win the Chinese GP

bookies.com compares the odds between the leading British bookmakes for all of the F1 markets, including whther or not there will be a Safety Car.

World Cup 2010 Winner Betting

Chinese GP: Winner Betting

Chinese GP: Winning Constructor Betting

Chinese GP: Podium Finish Betting

Chinese GP: Pole Position Betting

The first practice session for Sunday’s inaugural night time grand prix in Singapore saw Hamilton set the fastest lap time, but only narrowly ahead of his main rival, Felipe Massa. We cannot draw too many conclusions about the grand prix as of yet, and the fact that it is the first to take place under flood lights means we have little to go on from a punting aspect.

Lewis Hamilton is generally priced at 6/4 to win the Singapore Grand Prix, but I shall be taking on the favourite. With limited opportunities for overtaking, pole position will be crucial. You could back whoever has pole on Sunday morning, but the odds will be prohibitive. Ferrari have been much more competitive at tracks with high temperatures and have used soft tyres effectively.

Therefore I am looking towards Massa, a tasty 3/1 with William Hill, to win. He is the form pick, having won 2 out of his last 3 races. Furthermore, he would’ve won the Hungarian GP had it not been for an engine failure. Hamilton has been hit by 3 steward’s decision this season, and has failed to respond with a podium finish in any of the next races.

Let’s quickly have a look at the Asian form. Hamilton has failed to secure a podium finish in either of the two Asian GPs this season, Bahrain and Malaysia. Perhaps Robert Kubica is the value, having finished 2^nd and 3^rd. We all remember how Hamilton lost momentum in his title challenge last year as the season wore on, so it would not be a surprise to see Massa overtake him in the standings this weekend.

For those looking for an each way selection, I have already mentioned Kubica who is 23/1 in the winner’s market – remember a podium finish pays out 1/5 of the odds. Timo Glock is a massive 125/1 to win the race, but I’ll be taking the 11/8 offered by Paddy Power for him to finish in the points.  Toyota have experience in night racing from the Le Mans 24 Hours, and Glock was Rookie of the Year in the 2005 Champ Car series.

Recommendation:

3pts at 3/1 Massa to win the Singapore GP

2pts at 11/8 Glock to finish in the points

 bookies.com compares the odds across a range of bookmakers, ensuring that you’ll always get the best value:

Winning Driver

Winning Constructor

Qualifying

Points Finish

Fastest Lap

Safety Car

The new Hockenheim course should prove an interesting challenge for the drivers this weekend. It’s the first Grand Prix to be held there since 2006 and although many have driven F3 on it, they found it a new experience on this revamped course for last week’s test trials

Hamilton looked strong with a half second lead on the second day of tests. The press have been speculating whether mcalren will employ the use of the new fin engine cover for the race, it is said to be factor in Hamilton’s confidence at the tests. However the fin doesn’t perform well in strong winds and Hockenheim, a track suffering from such problems, seems a risky place to test it for real.

 After Silverstone Hamilton has taken up joint residency of the number one spot with Massa and Raikkonen. All three will be pushing hard in the qualifying rounds to gain the pole position. This can explain such closely calculated odds for the Pole Position market, Raikkonen, Hamilton and Massa are 7/4, 9/4 and 9/4 respectively. This doesn’t really leave much value in the market, the only hope to distinguish anything between the three is Hamilton’s consistently high scores in the Qualifying rounds but to be frank its not really worth it.

 As to the winner it appears just as tight between the top three but I might have an each way bet on Kovalainen and see if I can make anything more than a modest return. Paddypower have released the same odds for the top three as in the Pole Position market.

 This weekend the money’s to be found in the points finish market down by Glock and Button. I’d probably stay away from Button despite, I’m sure, your patriotic inclinations. Glock is a good choice though, probably the most experienced driver for the Hockenheim circuit he’s pretty good money at 3/1 with Skybet and Bet365. If your feeling adventurous you might take a gamble on Barrichello after his pretty spectacular performance at Silverstone.

For more GP betting markets click here.

Anticipation is mounting as we approach next weekend’s Grand Prix at Silvestone and the possibility of a home grown champion. The three Brits attending (Hamilton, Button and Coulthard) will be heavily supported by a record crowd of 240,000 over the race weekend. Hamilton is looking comfortable with the incredible turnout saying “It gives an extra boost to your confidence to know you’re getting more support, and it seems to make you perform better. Last year I found the support was immense and made the weekend a lot easier to get through.”

Hamilton will be looking to improve on his fourth place position after incurring penalties in Canada and France. Lewis finished third last year at Silverstone in his first British Grand Prix clocking up some much needed experience. Hamilton is expected to have a reasonable position after the qualifying round. His 12/5 at Betinternet shows the bookies feel his consistency as a driver will make up for his faults on etiquette.

Jenson Button is also looking forward to racing at Silverstone despite only a 1.21.445 best lap time (9^th). Jenson is at 400/1 at Boylesports.

Massa feels Mclaren will put up a greater challenge for his Ferarri team this week at the faster, more flowing, British track. “At Magny-Cours, we didn’t see the real performance from McLaren in the race as they were always blocked in traffic, but for sure, they can be a lot more competitive here.” However Massa will be looking to retain his lead position after a win at Magny-Cours. He is 3/1 to win at Ladbrokes.

Raikkonen is favourite to win this year at 3/2 on Bet1128 and 1.6/1 on Betfair. However, with the top four places so closely contended its hard to find a good value bet on the winner, I’d say Kubica is potentially a good each way bet at 14/1 on William Hill and Bet365.

For more Formula One betting markets click here.

Kimi Raikkonen is the bookies’ favourite for the French Grand Prix at a top price of 5/4 with Blue Square, Coral, Ladbrokes and Paddy Power. The Flying Finn led a Ferrari 1-2 last season in what was considered the turning point in the drivers’ championship. Ferrari also won the race in 2006 with Michael Schumacher taking the chequered flag, so they have a record to be respected here.

Ferrari team mate Felipe Massa is the 9/4 second favourite with Sportingbet and with his great recent record in qualifying means there is a good chance he is on the front row of the grid.

Kubica, who won in Canada, is top priced at 8/1 third favourite with Totesport, while Lewis Hamilton is a 11/1 shot with Victor Chandler and Totesport. Only Heidfeld and Alonso are rated shorter than 100/1 to win the race.

In the pole position betting Massa and Raikkonen are the joint 5/2 favourites with Skybet, followed by Lewis Hamilton at 3/1 with Sportingbet and Kubica at 13/2, also with Sportingbet. Massa took pole last year, so he looks a solid bet this year at 5/2.

Skybet are betting on whether there will be a safety car in the race and offer 4/6 on ‘yes’ and 11/10 on ‘no’. There have been safety cars in the last three races but Magny-Cours is a much more open circuit and the 11/10 on ‘no’ looks like a touch of value.

See all the French Grand Prix betting at bookies.com

With the team line ups for the Formula One season now known the bookies have opened up their betting on the Constructors Championship.

Ferrari are unsuprisingly the 4/5 favourites with Canbet and Victor Chandler, followed by McLaren at a best price of 15/8 with Stan James.

For those who think that Renault can improve massively this season then you can get 8/1 with Stan James about the Alonso led team being top dog in 2008.

BMW are on offer at a general 16/1 while every other team is on offer at 40/1 or bigger.

Given that many people think that FIA stands for Ferrari’s Interests Always then it is not hard to see why the bookies make them such short priced favourites. I don’t think there’s a huge amount of value in the market as it stands, certainly until we learn how Kovalainen adapts to his new car. If he does prove to be as good as many expect then the 15/8 McLaren may be the value wager. I have backed him at 16/1 each way for the Drivers’ Championship on the basis of the skill he showed last season but he’ll only really shorten up if he shows that he can drive the car as well (or better) than Hamilton.

Check out all the 2008 Formula One betting odds at bookies.com