I’ll start off stating the bleedingly obvious. In the National you need a horse that 1) jumps well and 2) stays the full four and half miles. It also helps if your horse likes the prevailing good to soft ground and has experience over the Aintree fences – this really is a race where horses for courses is a relevant expression.
If you’re going to have a bet then make sure you take the best price on the horse you want to back – go to Bookies.com - http://www.bookies.com/betting-odds/horse-racing/uk-saturday/aintree/4-15 - and click on the bold odds next to the horse you fancy to have a bet.
So let’s look at the runners and odds:
Cloudy Lane 11-2
Comply Or Die 11-1
Well handicapped and has proven stamina, having won the Eider Chase at
Slim Pickings 12-1
Finished third last year and has been aimed at this race all year. Carrying quite a lot of weight and the odds look about right. Although he jumped well last year he has been sketchy at his fences in other races and I can find others at bigger prices who I prefer.
Simon 12-1
Fell six from home last year when looking like a serious contender and is one of the horses with the best ‘story’, which the National winner always seems to have (owner Mercy Rimmell’s husband trained four National winners). Definitely one for the shortlist but the bookies are not giving much away.
Stays forever but would be much better on heavy ground. Slightly dodgy jumper and I expect will find several a little bit faster.
Good jumper, stays well and has Tony McCoy on board. All obvious credentials but his form looks a bit suspect and his prep race was unimpressive. Hard to get too excited about at the odds.
Bewleys
Second in the Becher Chase in November and going well last year when falling at Becher’s Brook on the second circuit. However he carries five pounds more this year and that looks a tough burden on what he has achieved. A potential winner but more likely fully in the grip of the handicapper.
Mr. Pointment 20-1
Won the Becher Chase over these fences in November and was right at the head of the betting when the weights were published. Since then ran an absolute shocker at
King Johns Castle 20-1
Bit of a dodgepot and all his best racing has been at under 3 miles. Prefers softer ground too. Paul Carberry is a decent jockey but he looks more like a 50-1 shot.
Snowy Morning 25-1
One of the form horses in the race and started second favourite in the Hennessy before falling early on. Was well fancied when the weights came out and has been on the drift ever since. On the form he showed in the Royal and Sun Alliance Chase last year, when he finished second to Denman, he should be a good thing but there are big question marks about whether he has trained on from that. At the odds on offer I think he has a big chance but you have to consider that the odds reflect his poor recent form and dubious jumping. A definite value bet but win only is the best option.
Point Barrow 25-1
Proven stayer, jumps well and trained for this race. Started as 8-1 co-favourite last year and fell at the first. This year he carries one pound less and although his form this season has been a little below par, it’s hard to see why he’s a 25-1 chance. The each way bet of the race.
McKelvy 25-1
Second last year and now eight pounds higher. Broke down after last year’s National and it’s hard to have much confidence. Others preferred.
Hedgehunter 25-1
Former winner but too old and carrying too much weight, in my opinion. Could place but hard to see him winning and the odds are not generous.
Philson Run 25-1
Stays forever and will trot round and stay past beaten horses. Booked for sixth or seventh, I’d guess. Only realistic chance is if it pours with rain all day, at which point could be an each way bet.
Turko 28-1
Might not stay, no experience in big handicaps and the stats say that at six he has no chance (last six year old winner was in 1916). Hard to get excited by Turko.
Mon Mome 28-1
A horse for the stats fans on his second in the Welsh National and his relatively easy prep for the race. Recent form is not impressive but definitely a likeable type and could be a decent value each way selection.
D’Argent 33-1
Jumps well and stays but will need to run the race of his life to win this. Stable is confident and the money is down so not one to dismiss but it will take a mega performance for D’Argent to win.
Dun Doire 33-1
Just snuck into the race as bottom weight and trained by notable shrewdie Tony Martin. Showed very little in last year’s race when pulled up four out and will have to have progressed a huge amount to make a mark this year.
L’Ami 33-1
Ran well for about three quarters of the race last year and then ran out of steam. Carries nine pounds less this year but I think the main target this year was Cheltenham. A big surprise if he wins.
Vodka Bleu 40-1
Doubtful stayer and carrying plenty of weight. One for the alcoholics.
Kelami 50-1
Didn’t seem to enjoy the Grand National last year and hard to see why he should have a change of heart this time around.
Black Apalachi 50-1
Jumps well but doubts how well he stays. May lack a bit of speed and easily passed over.
Knowhere 66-1
In great form but fell at the Canal Turn last year and doesn’t look like a National horse to me. Carrying plenty of weight and not one I can get excited by.
Idle Talk 66-1
Not the stable’s main chance and all the evidence to date suggests he is a non stayer. Miracle if he suddenly proves otherwise.
Fundamentalist 66-1
Plenty of weight but tends to do all his winning over distances about one and a half miles shorter. That tends to be a problem in the Grand National.
Madison Du Berlais 66-1
Out of form, dubious stayer and not that good a jumper. No thanks.
Joaaci 66-1
Quite an interesting outsider and the sort of horse that could spring a massive shock. Definite stayer and trained by David Pipe are the positives; not much good at jumping is the obvious negative. Not one to totally write off.
Baily Breeze 66-1
Dubious stayer and uninspiring form.
Ardaghey 100-1
No recent form that would suggest he can be a contender.
Iron Man 100-1
Has consistent Aintree form – every time he runs here, he falls. Perhaps a good clue why he is 100-1.
No Full 100-1
Carrying plenty of weight, no recent form, may not stay and potentially not recovered from an injury. Does that sound like a good bet to you?
Bob Hall 100-1
Badly handicapped, doesn’t appear to like jumping very much, prefers a much shorter trip and unlikely to enjoy his day out very much. Who’d be a horse?
Cornish Sett 100-1
Reasonable pedigree and has a good amateur rider on board. Recent form is lousy but of the 100-1 shots he is the one least likely to be on the way to the Pedigree Chum factory at the end of the season.
Naughton Brook 100-1
Didn’t seem to stay the full trip last year but if you want to back one that will bowl along in front for the first circuit and then drop away then this is the one for you.
Milan Deux Mille 100-1
Fifth in the Topham as a five year old so he shows he can jump these fences but very unlikely to stay and six year olds have an appalling record in the National. Easy to swerve.
Backbeat 100-1
Almost certain to not stay the trip. Form of Sandown win in January gives him a very, very, very outside chance but only really a horse for the eternal optimist.
Hi Cloy 150-1
Lots of weight and dubious stamina so hard to fancy. A good quality horse but not sure why he’s been entered for the National.
Tumbling Dice 150-1
Out of form and may not stay. Miracle if this one wins.
Nadover 150-1
Recent form is poor and is a sketchy jumper. Probably won’t stay either. All in all, a genuine 150-1 shot.
Contraband 500-1
Owner appears to be running this in order to get free entry into the racecourse and a good place in the grandstand. If it started at 4.15pm on Friday it probably still wouldn’t win the race.
