Denman has swerved the Scottish Grand National in favour of today’s Grade 1 Punchestown Guinness Gold Cup, to be run over a distance of three miles and one furlong. UK viewers can catch him live on At The Races at 5.30pm, Sky channel 415. He faces a very strong field in the showpiece of the Punchestown Festival, and it is hardly surprising that his odds have drifted out to 13/8 from an early show of 5/4 from the bookies.
The going is said to be on the slow side of good, which shouldn’t inconvenience the runners. However there are a couple of horses in the field that would prefer much softer conditions.
Let’s take a look at each of the runners and their betting odds for the Gold Cup. Is Denman a value bet at 13/8 with William Hill? Or can we find an outsider to run a big race at rewarding odds?
13/8 Denman
The 2008 Cheltenham Gold Cup winner will again be partnered by jockey AP McCoy, who has won the Grand National since last sitting on board ‘The Tank’. To give you an idea just how classy Denman is, his official rating is 180, and the next best horse is rated just 162. This graded race is not a handicap, so in theory Denman should thrash all of his opponents by at least 18 lengths.
But this is horse racing, and there are a number of important facts to take in surrounding the race. Denman’s trip by ferry across the Irish sea may be seen by some as a negative, but I’m concerned by his recent string of form: 22F-1U2. He would certainly prefer a bit of give in the ground and the horse isn’t getting any younger at 10 years old.
Trainer Paul Nicholls is a legend of the game, but even his recent form isn’t great. Twist Magic refused to race in yesterday’s Champion Chase, and his fancied pair of Advisor and Meanus Dandy were both thrashed last weekend up at Ayr.
Don’t get me wrong, I’d love to see him rout the field, but he won’t make you rich at short odds of 13/8.
5/1 Cooldine
Willie Mullins has to be respected at Punchestown, and especially in these Grade 1 races. Mullins recorded a sensational 700/1 treble Grade 1-treble yesterday, which reminded punters just where their money should be going this week.
Cooldine is a class act on his day, and he won the 2009 RSA Chase at Cheltenham by a whopping 16 lengths. He was then beaten here by Rare Bob at 5/6 last year, and he hasn’t had his head in front since. Backers are taking a leap of faith here, but he has the potential to bounce back for a top team.
11/2 Joncol
Beat Cooldine in the 2010 Irish Hennessy, and won at this track last December. He’s an improving sort, but isn’t certain to go on the ground.
13/2 J’y Vole
13/2 could be a terrific price for J’y Vole today, but then again it may be dreadful. Let me explain.
Being a half-sister to yesterday’s Champion Chase winner Golden Silver, this mare is in receipt of 5lbs from all of her rivals. She has improved dramatically, and was third in this year’s Ryanair Chase at 28/1. To give you an idea of her improvement, she won a handicap at this festival last year off a mark of 134, but now she can boast a rating of 157.
The ground isn’t a worry, and Willie Mullins holds her in high regard. Looks the one to be on, each way of course!
11/1 Tranquil Sea
The 2009 Paddy Power Gold Cup winner ran terribly at the Cheltenham Festival, and is hard to fancy today. Another one that may prefer it softer.
18/1 Barbers Shop
The Queen‘s Barbers Shop is due a big win, but 3m would appear a stretch. I thought he had a good chance in the Ryanair, but he only managed seventh.
28/1 Rare Bob
A good third in the John Smiths Handicap at Aintree, but not classy enough to win a race as good as this.
33/1 Notre Pere
Won this race last year at odds of 15/8, but hasn’t performed since. Wants boggy ground.
33/1 Planet Of Sound
Not certain to see out the trip.
41/1 War Of Attrition
Won this race in 2006 after the Cheltenham Gold Cup, and he’ll be retired this year. Connections won’t want him to have a hard race, but there is part of me that thinks he could run into a place at the very least.
War Of Attrition has won six of his ten starts at this track, could he be worth a final sentimental investment?
75/1 Siegemaster
Fell in the Irish National this year.
110/1 Follow The Plan
Hard to fancy, but has bits and pieces of form as a novice. Monitor in the betting perhaps.
Betting Advice:
1pt ew J’y Vole @ 13/2 (Bet 365, 1/4 odds 1-2-3)
1pt win War Of Attrition @ 41/1 (on Betfair)
bookies.com is your best bet for comparing Punchestown betting odds.
2010 Guinness Gold Cup Betting Odds
ANTEPOST Rabobank Champion Hurdle Betting Odds (Dunguib is the 100/30 favourite)



20/1 Vic Venturi




