Jeff Bridges is the red hot favourite with the bookmakers at 1/6 (bet $60 to win $10 profit) to win Best Actor at this year’s Oscars. Bridges is nominated for his performance as Otis ‘Bad’ Blake in Crazy Heart, and his short odds are justifable given that he has recently won a Golden Globe.
Before punters pile into Jeff Bridges, it is worth bearing in mind that Mickey Rourke failed to complete the Best Actor double in last years Academy Awards, as he was beaten to the Oscar by Sean Penn.
The story line of Crazy Heart has been criticised as mundane by some critics, but the overwhelming consensus is that Jeff Bridges takes the film to another level. His character is an alcoholic country musician, who enters a relationship with a young journalist. On Rotten Tomatoes, the film has a 92% ‘fresh’ rating.
Since the Best Leading Actor market opened on Betfair, $16,000 out of a total of $18,000 has been traded on Bridges.
George Clooney has taken an alarming drift in the market out to 18/1 from 4/1 on the exchange, which would suggest that his chances are slim. His film, Up In The Air, has received a total of six Oscar nominations.
If anything, it is actually Colin Firth that has been backed against the odds-on favourite, and he is at 12/1 with Bet365. It is only his first Oscars nomination, and his momentum has been derived from success at the BAFTAs and at the Venice Film Festival.
Morgan Freeman is 25/1 for Invictus and Jeremy Renner can also be backed at long odds.
Slumdog Millionaire was the big winner last night, picking up 8 awards, including Best Picture. It was 1/7 for that award and Danny Boyle was also rewarded at 1/9 for directing.
On New Years Day we said that:
This prize likes to recognize films that are financially successful, and Slumdog Millionaire ticks that box. For that reason, 7/4 looks like a fair price.
Since then it tightened at the head of the market, and was cut from 4/9 into 1/6. Meanwhile Benjamin Button drifted out from 4/1 to 13/2 on the night.
Kate Winslet won Best Actress at 1/3, but William Hill quoted 15/8 that she’d win 2 or more. Paddy Power were 4/6 about her crying during her acceptance speech, but she managed to avoid a repeat of the Golden Globes.
Kate was the early favourite to win the Oscar, albeit for a different film. Don’t expect Paddy Power to pay out on bets for Revolutionary Road.
I think that The Reader, a film about the Holocaust, will go down better than Revolutionary Road. At 9/4, I’m happy to look elsewhere for a bet.
Even though we tipped Richard Jenkins for Best Actor, there were only 3 realistic contenders according to the betting. The bookies avoided a blood bath after 8/15 Mickey Rourke was denied by 2/1 Sean Penn.
4 of the last 5 winners of the Golden Globe had gone on to win the Oscar, so Sean Penn was a surprise.
Penn’s performance in Milk is likely to go down well, and he has already picked up the award before in 2003. Daniel Day-Lewis also won before in 1989, so history suggests that shouldn’t be a problem.
As for Mickey Rourke…
Does Hollywood want Mickey Rourke back? He may even be favourite on the night, but I’m can’t back him at 9/4 at this stage.
One of the biggest betting stories was Amy Adams, who was gambled into 11/4 from 14/1, after a ‘leaked document’ on the net claimed that she was the future recipient of the Best Supporting Actress award. Paddy Power will breathe a sigh of relief after taking £40,000 of bets on Amy.
Our Oscars Betting section is well worth a look, but many of the prices have changed since we embarked on the value hunt at the turn of the year. Slumdog Millionaire was an early 13/8 with Paddy Power, but is now 1/6.
We said that it was ‘nailed on’ at 4/9, but we forecast that it could go off shorter in the betting if it performed well at the BAFTAs. It won 7 of the 10 BAFTAs it was nominated for. Danny Boyle is now 1/7 to be Best Director.
Each major category has a warm favourite, but I’m not alone in feeling that not all of them will oblige on the night. Kate Winslet is now 4/9 for Best Actress, whilst Mickey Rourke is 4/7 with Blue Square for Best Actor.
Sean Penn is still in with a shout at 21/10, but our tip Richard Jenkins is a 66/1 no-hoper. Heath Ledger is 1/33 for Best Supporting Actor - surely punters will be ‘printing money’ on the night!
Penelope Cruz is 13/20 for Best Supporting Actress, but there has been a bit of late money for 14/1 Amy Adams.
Don’t worry if you missed the early prices, you can still have a bet on Kate’s acceptance speech with Paddy Power. It’s 4/6 that she cries and 9/4 that she thanks the Academy first in her speech.
It’s 10/1 that a nominated actress is photographed at the Oscars with her nipple uncovered and a juicy 12/1 that an Oscar gong is dropped on the night!
The British Academy Film Awards (BAFTAs) are the nearest thing that Britain has to the Oscars, meaning that the betting is very similar. They take place on the 8th February and will almost certainly have an effect on the odds for the Oscars betting markets.
Whilst most nominations are the same, there are some regional differences which punters have to take into account. For example, in the Original Screenplay category foreign films such as Burn After Reading and I’ve Loved You So Long have picked up BAFTA nominations.
In the Best Actress Category, the Brits have gone for Kate Winslet (twice!) and Kristin Scott Thomas (25/1). Over the sea, the Americans preferred to give Melissa Leo a shock nomination. This actress protectionism means that I still think Anne Hathaway is a good bet for an Oscar (3/1 Victor Chandler), because Winslet keeps coming up short.
Kate is already preparing an acceptance speech for her BAFTA award, but we don’t know yet which film she’ll get in for: either The Reader (11/10) or Revolutionary Road (6/4). If I was pushed to have a bet in that category, I’d go for The Reader, which has nominations for Best Film and Best Director.
Slumdog Millionaire will probably make the headlines, and Ladbrokes are taking bets on just how many BAFTAs it’ll scoop up. 5-6 Awards is their 5/4 favourite, whilst 7-8 Awards is on offer for 6/4. 9-10 Awards may be of interest to some optimistic punters at 8/1.
I don’t fancy lead actor Dev Patel to pick up Best Actor at 10/1, but Danny Boyle should win Best Director at 2/9. Ladbrokes go 1/4 that Slumdog wins Best Film, and it could even Outstanding British Film at 8/11, but Hunger could be a better bet at 5/2.
Bet with caution, but it could also take Music, Editing, Production Design and Adapted Screenplay. If it doesn’t do as well as expected, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button looks like the one to benefit (8/1 Best Film, Bet365).
Slumdog Millionaire is now best priced at 4/9 with Boylesports to win Best Film at the Oscars. Most of the other bookmakers have been scared off and go as short as 1/5. Danny Boyle’s film has been backed from about 1/2 on the betting exchanges into 2/5.
Now that I have seen the film I can’t say that I’m in a better place to bet than before. It was well directed and I was impressed with young Dev Patel. However, one problem is that that it doesn’t accurately follow the book, which is beautifully written and highly recommended, whether you’ve seen the hyped film or not.
Readers may disagree, but the storyline is soppy and the dancing business at the end is cringe-worthy. Don’t get me wrong, I still enjoyed the film! The problem is that the Academy loves feel good movies and films that have been financially successful, so it will probably win. At this stage there looks like no stopping Slumdog Millionaire, and I wouldn’t be put off that it has fewer Oscar nominations than The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.
I also have mixed feelings about Benjamin Button, which was recently backed into 4/1, only to weaken out to 9/2. It is almost 3 hours long, and it takes Brad Pitt a long time to age backwards. I enjoyed the storyline and the makeup was excellent.
It is difficult to find opposition to Slumdog, but William Hill have recently cut Milk into 10/1. I would be extremely surprised if Slumdog Millionaire didn’t win a BAFTA (1/4), which could see its Oscar price cut further.
The last time we wrote about the betting for this year’s Oscars, Kate Winslet was the 9/4 favourite to win the Best Leading Actress award for Revolutionary Road. After she picked up 2 Golden Globes, in the leading and supporting actress categories, she looks nailed on to go and pick up at least one Oscar next month.
I got excited when our alternative, 7/2 Anne Hathaway, took over favouritism at 2/1. She is now a 6/1 chance, so don’t quite write her off yet!
William Hill are offering 1/5 that Kate Winslet wins at least one Oscar, and 15/8 that she wins 2 or more. She has already been nominated 5 times without winning an award, and you can get 4/1 that she goes home empty handed.
Kate is 4/6 favourite with Paddy Power to win Best Actress, but Sally Hawkins has emerged as another serious contender. We said that she should be ‘by no means ruled out’ at 5/1 and is now 2/1 after winning the Golden Globe in the comedy section.
Elsewhere Slumdog Millionaire is a very warm order at 2/5 to win Best Film after it won the equivalent Golden Globe. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button is next at 5/1, although it failed to win a Golden Globe from 5 possible categories.
At the time of writing, the betting for the Best Actress in a Leading Role looks fairly open, despite the presence of Kate Winslet at the top. There isn’t an obvious winner at the moment, but the other contenders are just as worthy, and could even shade favouritism before the big night.
9/4 Kate Winslet (Revolutionary Road)
Really should become a 7 time Oscar nominee, but whether she will finally win is another question. The Academy probably want to give her an award, and Kate will be hoping that they don’t classify her role in The Reader as a lead. Of the 10 actors that have been nominated in both the lead and supporting categories in the same year, 6 won an award. I think that The Reader, a film about the Holocaust, will go down better than Revolutionary Road. At 9/4, I’m happy to look elsewhere for a bet.
5/2 Meryl Streep (Doubt)
Hasn’t won since Sophie’s Choice, which was released in 1982! The film Doubt looks like a long shot in the Best Film betting, but Meryl Streep has the chance to win Best Actress. Her character is very likable, and the story focuses on sexism and coverups in the Catholic Church. I’m not sure how it will go down on the night, but her drift in the Golden Globes market is alarming, out to 3/1 from 5/2. The Golden Globes don’t always work out as a form guide before the Oscars, but I’d rather bet on an actress that was gathering momentum in the market.
7/2 Anne Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married)
The problem about the 7/2 on offer is that everyone loves Anne Hathaway in this movie, but opinion is divided on the film itself. The Academy loves the younger contenders in this category, meaning that Anne has a terrific chance. If Revolutionary Road flops, Hathaway could mop up at tasty odds of 7/2. She has made the transition from the ‘popcorn’ movies and is a good campaigner. She is best priced at 11/4 for a Golden Globe, so her true price for an Oscar may in fact be shorter than the 7/2. Taking it now is a bit risky before other bookmakers open markets, but I’m happy enough with the price.
5/1 Sally Hawkins (Happy-Go-Lucky)
If she gets nominated, Sally Hawkins has a good chance of winning. Paddy Power are of the same opinion, and go 5/1 from 8/1. She has picked up a few critics’ award, but the same was true for Naomi Watts, who didn’t get an Oscar nomination. My advice would be to tread carefully, but I would by no means rule her out.
6/1 Kristin Scott Thomas (Il y a longtemps que je t’aime)
8/1 Angelina Jolie could pick up a nomination this year, but she hasn’t had one since 1999. If she is back in favour, I fancy that Kristin Scott Thomas will be the casualty. The latter is also a 6/1 long shot for a Golden Globe, but she was brilliant in Il y a longtemps que je t’aime. It’s the only film that I’ve seen on this shortlist - Scott Thomas plays Juliette, who goes to live with her younger sister after a long spell in jail. French films punch above their weight at the Oscars, such as Amélie Poulain, Les Choristes and Le Scaphandre et Le Papillon, which got 4 nominations last year.
Recommendation:
4pts @ 7/2 Anne Hathaway Best Actress in a Leading Role
The Best Actor in a Leading Role award should go to either Sean Penn, Mickey Rourke or Frank Langella, if the betting is to be believed. Any other result would have to go down as an upset, but if one of the other 2 nominees wins the Golden Globe, the market will look drastically different on January 12.
13/8 Sean Penn (Milk)
Sean Penn was the even money favourite to win a Golden Globe for Best Actor (Drama), but is still pretty well fancied as 5/4 with Ladbrokes. The winner of that award is fairly significant, as 4 of the last 5 winners have gone on to win an Oscar. Daniel Day-Lewis won both last year, and was an incredible 1/9 after the Golden Globe.
If we have identified a solid trend, can we capitalize on odds-against for Sean Penn? My view is that he will go odds-on should he win the Golden Globe, I’d estimate his new price to win the Oscar to be about 4/6. Penn’s performance in Milk is likely to go down well, and he has already picked up the award before in 2003. Daniel Day-Lewis also won before in 1989, so history suggests that shouldn’t be a problem.
9/4 Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler)
Mickey Rourke is the only reason why Sean Penn isn’t odds-on to win the award. For some reason he is only starting to attract praise for his performance as Randy Robinson in The Wrestler. The film won the Golden Lion award at the Venice Film Festival and has apparently received 98% positive reviews. I haven’t seen it, but one critic has said that “Rourke creates a galvanizing, humorous, deeply moving portrait that instantly takes its place among the great, iconic screen performances.” He has now been installed at the head of the betting.
Does Hollywood want Mickey Rourke back? He may even be favourite on the night, but I’m can’t back him at 9/4 at this stage.
4/1 Frank Langella (Frost/Nixon)
I thought that this film was pretty fun to watch and it kept me engaged throughout. Frank Langella would be a banker to get nominated for an Oscar if there was a market, because his President Nixon is spot on. What impressed me was how he even copies Nixon’s walking style, amongst other habits.
I’d be surprised if he actually won the award though, and 4/1 is perhaps a bit short if you are looking for an alternative to take on the favourite.
8/1 Leonardo DiCaprio (Revolutionary Road)
DiCaprio has been nominated twice for this award already, but may not necessarily get nominated for Revoltuionary Road this year. He teams up with Kate Winslet again in a love story set in 1950s America. I won’t be investing in him this year, as he is the only recent winner of a Golden Globe in recent years not to go on and win an Oscar. Like with The Titanic, it may just be Kate Winslet who gets nominated.
8/1 Richard Jenkins (The Visitor)
Paddy Power have priced up Richard Jenkins for his role in The Reader, even though he didn’t take part. I assume that they will pay out if Jenkins picks up the award for his performance in The Visitor. It is great to see him finally play the lead, who is a retired college professor. He carries it out with aplomb, creating a complex character who is confronted by 2 immigrants staying in his New York flat. He deserves a nomination at least, but it will be a tall order to go on and win the award. Betting Advice:
Sean Penn is pretty short at 13/8, but at this stage he is the most likely winner of the award. Clint Eastwood (Gran Torino) could also get nominated, and is 10/1 for the award. I thought that Brad Pitt would be in the running on what could be a great ceremony for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, but Paddy Power haven’t priced him up. I’ll have a very small stake on Richard Jenkins, who could shorten if nominated.
1pt @ 8/1 Richard Jenkins to win Best Leading Actor
At the moment, there are 281 films in the running for the most prestigious Academy Award, Film of the Year. Nevertheless, you can bet that that the eventual winner will come from Paddy Power’s shortlist of 12 films. Bet365 are also taking bets on this market, and give you slightly more options. That said, do you really think that 66/1 Quantum of Solace was that good?
7/4 Slumdog Millionaire
I would’ve been happy to take the original price of 2/1, but now the best price you can find is 7/4 with William Hill. This film should be at the top of anyone’s list, simply because it has had to build an audience, as it doesn’t have the big studio behind it. This prize likes to recognize films that are financially successful, and Slumdog Millionaire ticks that box. For that reason, 7/4 looks like a fair price.
6/1 Milk
Milk wasn’t nominated in the Best Picture category in the Globes, but it is pretty solid in the betting at 6/1. That price looks pretty short, as I give it a similar chance to both Frost/Nixon and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. Sean Penn’s portrayal of California’s first openly gay elected official will be popular, not least because it’s a politcally apt topic. To be honest, I’d rather put my money on Sean Penn in the Best Actor category.
16/1 Doubt
May eventually get out-grossed by Slumdog Millionaire, but Doubt has to be recognised as another financial success. The first available price was 5/1, but now you can get 16s, maybe because Meryl Streep’s performance has been criticized for one reason or another. Doubt picked up the most Screen Actors Guild nominations, but the same ‘curse’ befell Into The Wild last year.
5/1 The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
I haven’t seen this one, but apparently it is very ordinary and simply helped by its star appeal. Cate Blanchett and Brad Pitt add great weight to this film’s popularity and I’m interested that the Paddy Power now go 5/1 from last week’s 8/1. The film is about an 80 year old man who ages backwards (i.e. gets younger with time) and is described by its director as ‘dark’ and ‘romantic’. Its 3 day total came to $27.2 million - these financially successful films always tend to do well.
8/1 Frost/Nixon
Kevin Bacon deserves an Oscar sometime soon, and could be decent value to pick one up this year in the Best Supporting Actor Category for his performance as an aide in Frost/Nixon. This film should make the final 5, but Ron Howard’s films always come across to me as both slow and a bit static. I’ll confess to not having seen this film yet, but it isn’t worthy of best picture. The interview part has been criticized for being repeatedly interrupted.
Aside from the market leaders, 16/1 The Wrestler could have an outside chance. The Dark Knight is a 25/1 underdog, but has the potential to cause a stunning upset.
Latest Prices (22 February 2009):
1/7 Slumdog Millionaire
13/2 The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
25/1 Milk
bookies.com currently has odds on the 3 main Academy Awards:
It’s the time of year when the showbiz world turns their attention towards the Oscars, which take place on 22 February 2009. As we start a new year’s betting on Bookies Blog, we’ll be looking for some long term value bets to keep us afloat.
Over the next few days we’ll be looking at the front-runners in the main 3 categories, to scrutinise the favourites and see if there could be any upsets to the betting. Click the links to be taken to each individual preview or just go to our Oscars Betting section of the blog to find out the latest developments.
In the Directing category, Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire is 1/2 with Centrebet, followed by 3/1 David Fincher for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. The Dark Knight is a 14/1 outsider in the Best Film category, but director Christopher Nolan has a great chance in this one (10/1).
The best Supporting Actor category will be very prohibitive thanks to Heath Ledger, who must surely pick up the award for his performance as the Joker in The Dark Knight. Skybet have priced him at 1/4.
Penelope Cruz is the even money (1/1) favourite in the best Supporting Actress category, although 4/1 Viola Davis and 6/4 Kate Winslet are close behind. Kate Winslet is a potential nominee for 2 films this year: The Reader and Revolutionary Road. With 5 Golden Globe nominations to her name this year, she has to be considered from a betting angle.
The Adapted Writing category could also go the way of Slumdog Millionaire, which has 4 Golden Globe nominations. The story is about a child from Mumbai who makes it onto the Indian version of Who Wants to be a Millionaire? Others that will be in contention are Doubt and also The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.
In the Original Writing category, Vicky Cristina Barcelona could take it for Woody Allen. The romantic comedy has had great reviews and has had 4 Golden Globe Nominations. It got an 80% rating on Rotten Tomatoes and is Allen’s best film since Match Point in 2005. Rachel Getting Married and Milk will be at the front of the betting, but Changeling could be an outside bet. If I was to have a bet at this stage, I’d probably take WALL-E for some serious value. It has been gathering momentum and could make headlines this year. Expect it to take the Animated Feature Film category.
