Ed Miliband is now as short as 6/1 to be Gordon Brown’s successor, although Paddy Power are best priced at 10/1. With Labour doing badly in the polls, there has been a flurry of bets on the Next Permanent Leader of the Labour Party.

Defeat in the next General Election looks inevitable, and the Tories are now 1/4 in the Winning Party Market.

Gordon Brown is still 2/5 with Ladbrokes to be PM at the start of 2010 and the next leader should take over after the presumed election defeat. Harriet Harman is the 10/3 favourite, although the top political betting story is the momentum of Ed Miliband.

We reckon that Ed is gearing himself up for a leadership challenge after he went against Gordon Brown in demanding environmental concessions for the new Heathrow runway. The move will appeal to the left of the Labour Party, whose support would be crucial in a leadership battle.

Ed Miliband was as high as 20/1 last month and his brother David has drifted from 2/1 out to 11/2. Alan Johnson will probably also run, and he is a 10/1 chance with Ladbrokes.

Peter Mandelson may be 58 years old, but has had a big impact lately. 66/1 looks like a big price to me, but it looks doubtful that he’ll stand.

bookies.com compares odds on political betting markets:

Next General Election Winning Party Betting

Barack Obama becomes the 44th U.S. President tomorrow, and to celebrate the occasion, Ladbrokes are taking bets on his speech.

You can get odds of 5/6 that his speech is under 23 minutes, and the same odds are on offer for over. William Hill go 8/1 that the speech is under 10 minutes 5/2 for between 15 and 20 minutes. A marathon 30 minutes+ is on offer for 8/1.

Perhaps more of interest is the content of the speech, where you can bet on individual words and phrases. Ladbrokes’ favourite is ‘Congress’ at 1/5, but ‘Senate’ has also been cut to 8/13 from evens. ‘John McCain’ isn’t worth a bet at evens, but ‘Hillary Clinton’ can be backed at 5/6. ‘Kenya’ has been cut to 4/1 from 5s but ‘Gordon Brown’ is 33/1.

He is 16/1 to have a 3rd child during his presidency and 50/1 to be impeached. It is 6/4 that Osama bin Laden is captured during his watch, which may not be a bad price if he gets a 2nd term (evens).

bookies.com compares odds across a range of political betting markets:

Length of Speech Betting

Phrase Betting

Paddy Power have invited Barack Obama to attend the Grand National on 4 April, promising him a good feed and several free bets. Aintree’s managing director has welcomed the move, even though it looks highly unlikely during Obama’s first few months as President.

We have all heard about Obama’s poker years, so perhaps he will jump at the opportunity to let his (metaphorical) hair down and have a day at the races. Paddy Power go 16/1 that he does attend, but forgive me for not backing what should be a 50/1 shot! If he did attend, I’d hope that he’d find an betting alternative to the current 20/1 market leader, Comply or Die.

You can also take 9/4 that he stays in Buckingham Palace during his UK visit, or 40/1 that he has lunch with Simon Cowell.

Check out bookies.com for a range of specials markets, including X Factor and I’m a Celebrity.

Barack Obama Specials

Grand National 2009 Betting

Our 8/1 tip, Martina Navratilova is now best-priced at 13/2, but the betting headline belong to George Takei. Ant & Dec have tipped him to win the show, and the bookies are taking no chances by cutting him to 11/4. The question is, will all the Star Trek fans actually pick up the phone to vote?

William Hill have cut John Sargeant to win Strictly Come Dancing from 66/1 to 16/1. His increasing popularity means that he now figures in the betting market, but Austin Healy is still the 11/8 favourite.

In the wonderful world of political betting, Labour‘s resurgence appears to be continuing. Hills have seen interest from punters who believe the next general election will be between January and Jun 2009, forcing the bookmaker to go 11/4 from a previous 5/1. Alternatively, if you think that Gordon Brown can carry his recent momentum into next year, why not back 2009 as the year of the next general election at 13/8.

In the Premier League Arsenal have been eased all the way out to 33/1 by Betfred, following their home defeat to Aston Villa.  Mark Hughes is now 3/1 joint favourite along with Roy Keane in the next Premier League manager to go market. There is also betting available on the next Watford Manager.

Remember to head straight over to bookies.com before betting on a ‘special‘ market.

X Factor Winner Betting

I’m a Celebrity Winner Betting

Strictly Come Dancing Winner Betting

Monday Night NFL: Bills v Browns

There are plenty of betting events this weekend, a particular highlight must be the £1,300,000 Scoop6. A mug’s game you might say, but someone has to win it. The Channel 4 races are from Wincanton and Doncaster, featuring the totesport November Handicap. In that race I like 6/1 Electrolyser who will act on the soft ground and doesn’t carry much weight.

Elsewhere Roy Jones has been well supported in the boxing betting against Joe Calzaghe, forcing bookmakers to clip him into 9/4 from 5/2. In the Snooker, Ronnie O’Sullivan has pulled out of the Bahrain Championship. Stephen Maguire is the 6/1 favourite, although each way value seekers may prefer the likes of Stephen Hendry or Judd Trump, both 25/1 with totesport.

There’s also a feast of rugby this weekend, with England v New Zealand and Scotland v Tonga in the Rugby league World Cup. Rugby Union internationals include England v Pacific Islands, Wales v South Africa and a fascinating renewal of France v Argentina.

The highlight must be the Premier League clash between Manchester United and Arsenal at the Emirates. Boylesports were briefly opposing the away team at 6/4, but now the best you can get is 7/5 with William Hill. Rather like the Chelsea – Man United fixture earlier in the season, I fancy a tight encounter. The draw is 23/10 with totesport, and under 2.5 goals is 4/5 – too short in my opinion to back.

My fancied correct score is 1-1, and I am slightly tempted by the 6/1 on offer. If you reckon the Arsenal attack will draw a blank, try 0-0 at 19/2. The form striker in the match is Berbatov – 9/4 to score anytime or 7/1 to score first.

Recommendation:

1pt each way 6/1 Electrolyser in Saturday’s November Handicap

Next General Election Betting

Doncaster 3.10 Totesport November Handicap Betting

Bahrain Chapionship Betting

Boxing – Calzaghe v Jones Betting

Rugby League World Cup – England v New Zealand Betting

Rugby League World Cup – Scotland v Tonga Betting

Arsenal v Man U Match Betting

Man City take on Steve McClaren’s FC Twente in the UEFA Cup tonight, in a match that will be televised on ITV4. Twente have won 4 out of 5 of their last away games, so 4/9 for the home side looks very short indeed. Twente are a massive 15/2.

Labour are expected to lose the Glenrothes by-election, and are the 2/1 outsiders. Today Labour have drifted from around the even money mark to 2.4/1. The current odds give Labour around a 30% chance of winning, as the Scottish National Party are the 2/5 favourites.

Defeat would be humiliating for Gordon Brown, who has enjoyed a recent comeback in the polls from his no-nonsense handling of the financial crisis. He has even joined the Glenrothes campaign trail personally, which is risky considering his image may get tainted in defeat.

Never mind that the Glenrothes constituency borders Gordon’s very own, all the pointers are that Labour will lose. The SNP were inundated with volunteers over the weekend, and the betting exchanges suggest it will be plain sailing. Let’s not forget the huge market move for Obama on Tuesday – money is a much better litmus test than any polls.

Assuming that the SNP will wrap up Glentrothes, the interesting market is the tricast with Ladbrokes. We have already established the 1-2, and the tricast market currently looks like this:

SNP/Lab/Cons: 13/8

SNP/Lab/Lib Dems: 2/1

Labour activists have reportedly been asked to bet on their party, in order to gather momentum. We’ll keep it simple and stick with a simple SNP win, although the current odds are restrictive. Still the 2/5 with Ladbrokes is value considering its 1.38/1 with Betfair.

Recommendation:

3pts 2/5 SNP Glenrothes by-election

bookies.com compares odds for all sporting events and wide range of political betting markets, including Next Permanent Labour Leader and the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election.

Man City v FC Twente Match Betting

Glenrothes by-election Winning Party Betting

Glenrothes by-election Tricast Betting

With only 4 more recognised Group 1 races this year, all taking place in Hong Kong in December, trainer Aidan O’Brien would have to win all of them just to equal the record. It is doubtful whether he’ll even have a runner given how lethargic the Ballydole team appear.

Tonight I will be leaving the Presidential Election alone, having already got on Obama at a juicy 4/6. Perhaps we would want to dutch McCain at 8/1 to guarantee a profit, but the polls only give him an 8% chance. The favourite-long shot bias may be coming into play, where punters wishfully forecast an upset and overbet the long shot, McCain in this instance. The fact that McCain has drifted like a barge out to 16/1 on Betfair is alarming, as the markets are usually more accurate than any polls. Some may wish to get involved in individual state betting, for example Missouri, where both candidates are 5/6.

Liverpool take on Atletico Madrid again tonight, in the feature match which will be televised on ITV1. The Reds can be backed at 8/13 with Boylesports, despite their loss at Tottenham on Saturday. Another cause for concern is that Liverpool have only won 2 out of 11 at home against Spanish opposition. Postives include their great European form and a possible return for star striker Fernando Torres.

In the last 30 minutes of the previous encounter, which ended 1-1, Atletico played very well. They have only failed to score twice in 15 games. Maybe I’m bitter about Liverpool throwing away my clean sheet bet against PSV, but I will have a small lay on the home side’s clean sheet tonight at 6/5. So laying to win 3 points, means I’m risking a 3.6 point loss. Expect the Atletico goal threats to come from Aguero and Forlan, both 10/1 to score first.

Elsewhere 1/9 Barcelona should run riot against Basle. Back them with a -2.5 goal start with Bet1128 at 881/1000. Unfortunately it won’t be a 1000 pointer to win 881, just the 2 points thanks.  10/11 Marseille really should beat PSV this time, although having let me down last week I won’t be having a wager. Both sides will need miracles to progress to the next round from this point.

Recommendation:

3.6pts Lay Liverpool Clean Sheet v Atletico to win 3pts

2pts 881/1000 Barcelona -2.5 Asian Handicap v Basle

bookies.com compares all the odds for the U.S. Presdiential Election and tonight’s Champions League fixutres

Liverpool v Atletico Match Betting

Liverpool v Atletico First Goalscorer Betting

Liverpool v Atletico Correct Score Betting

Liverpool v Atletico Clean Sheet Betting

Barcelona v Basle Match Betting

Barcelona v Basle Asian Handicap Betting

Marseille v PSV Match Betting

Anorthosis v Inter Match Betting

The firm said, “We declare this race well and truly over and congratulate all those who backed Obama; your winnings await you.” The bookies have reported one-way traffic for the Illinois Senator, who was a 50/1 shot back in May 2005. One astute punter had a cheeky €50 at the price. The firm has also reported a single bet of €100,000 at odds of 1/2 back in June.

Great news for followers of this blog, as our second highest stake to date is on Obama at 4/6. Paddy Power also paid out early on Boris Johnson for the London Mayoral Contest, so the omens are good. Coral are offering 1/8, but I’m afraid I won’t be “buying money”.

Instead this blog will be featuring tips for State Betting, including fascinating contests such as the state of Missouri, which was only got the ultimate winner of the election wrong once since 1904. Are you a great follower of historical trends? The Democrats are currently 4/6 to win Missouri…

bookies.com compares odds for all sports betting markets, as well as specials, including political betting.

Presidential Election Betting

Missouri Winning Party Betting

On August 29^th this year, John McCain took a gamble of his own in announcing the then unknown Sarah Palin as his running mate. The Alaska governor has roused the Republican core, and is seeking to attract female voters, particularly Clinton supporters. Never mind stories about her private life – a recent poll has shown her to be more popular than Obama, McCain and Biden, with a favourability rating of 58%.

Following the “Palin Bounce”, the presidential race is now neck and neck:

Gallup: Obama 47%, McCain 45%

Diageo/Hotline: Obama 45%, McCain 42%

Research 2000: Obama 48%, McCain 44%

Rasmussen Reports: McCain 48%, Obama 47%

The different methods employed by pollsters and conflicting results leaves the punter feeling confused. All the information that we can derive from these results is that the November 4 election will be a tight one. The betting suggests otherwise, with Obama best priced at 4/6 to win the Presidential Election with Hills and Paddy Power. McCain is currently available at 7/5 to back with Ladbrokes.

Odds historically do a better job than polls as political barometers. Despite the 2000 election being close to a dead heat, the winner, George Bush, was a 4/7 favourite. The pendulum appears to have swung back in Obama’s favour.

Even though I don’t often bet at odds-on, I’m more than happy with 4/6 for Obama. I believe that his odds will shorten in the future as the electorate tires of Sarah Palin. Furthermore, the current economic climate could help Obama. For a start his party aren’t presiding over a recession, and secondly he has made a consistent case for tighter regulation. Never mind my personal views on the free market; I’m taking a betting angle.

Recommendation:

6pts at 4/6 Obama to be next U.S. President

Check out all the Presidential Election odds with bookies.com and remember to check this blog for more updates before November 4.

Boris, it seems, has let things slip a bit and he has been pushed out to 4/7 from 4/9 by most bookmakers. It does seem that his campaign has lost momentum recently and it will be interesting to see if his price continues to slip throughout this week.

The betting also suggests that Brian Paddick has very little chance of success, he stands at 150/1 on betfair and 100/1 with the more generous bookmakers. So, if you’re a Liberal Democrat I wouldn’t get your hopes up too high about getting Brian in power.

Elsewhere in the world of politics, Barrack Obama looks set to secure himself the democratic candidacy and is currently top priced 2/9 to be taking on Mc Cain come November. However, those of you who still have faith in Hilary Clinton can back her at 7/2 to represent the democrats. It is the Democrats who are odds on favourites to win the election at 11/20 so a bet on Obama at evens to become the next President of the United States might not be too foolish a bet.

Why not check out the rest of the political betting markets here.