Bookies Blog

Ireland travel to Italy as the 1/6 favourites, and should complete a massacre for the bookies. France and Wales weren’t exactly comfortable yesterday, but they obliged as the first 2 legs of the 4/9 treble.

Ladbrokes took at €20,000 bet on Wales for yesterday’s match and have been forced to cut Ireland into 1/9.

They were impressive in finally beating the French (30-21) and have never lost at the Stadio Flaminio - bad news for 7/1 Italy.

Declan Kidney will be fielding the same team, with Paddy Wallace at centre.

Mauro Bergamasco has a terrible game at Scrum Half at Twickenham, and will be playing in the 3rd line. Nick Mallet has reported the team to be working well this week, so I could be confident in backing Ireland with the -13.5 handicap.

The First Tryscorer market is difficult to get involved in, but Tommy Bowe is the 10/1 favourite with Skybet and should get involved. Alternatively you could back no tries at 33/1! The bookies are expecting plenty of points, but at 5/6 I’d be below the 42.5 line.

William Hill go 4/1 that the Irish get off to a great start, scoring a try as the first scoring play. An Italian penalty would be an exciting bet at 2/1 though.

For those readers who backed Ireland at 7/2 before the France match, I can’t see any reason to have a bet today. It’s a bit of a shame that we didn’t back Ireland at 11/1 for the Grand Slam, because it would’ve been a great trading bet ahead of the Wales match on the 21st March.

Compare odds on bookies.com before having a bet on the rugby:

Italy v Ireland Match Betting

Italy v Ireland Handicap Betting

Six Nations Winner Betting

Six Nations Grand Slam Winner Betting

Six Nations Triple Crown Winner Betting

7/2 tip Ireland beat France in a Croke Park thriller, whilst we also pointed readers in the direction of 14/1 winner, Madison Du Berlais.

If the Levy Board chase had one extra runner, we would’ve gone large on Madison Du Berlais. Instead I just had a few quid on at 19/1 on Friday night. We also forecasted the bookies’ reaction to a Denman flop:

I’d expect the bookmakers to cut stable-mate Kauto to about 6/4

Kauto Star is now generally a 7/4 chance, having been 3/1 with Coral in the morning.

We were thrilled with the Ireland performance, and they are now the 2/1 favourites for the tournament. I wouldn’t get too excited now because of their dreadful away record, but so far so good.

Wales cannot be backed at 8/15 for tomorrow’s trip to Murrayfield. The last time the 2 sides met on Scottish soil, Wales were taught a 21-9 lesson. Yes, things have changed dramatically in Welsh rugby, but Warren Gatland won’t be taking the fixture lightly.

England have often imploded at Murrayfield over the years, but Wales will be hoping to avoid the curse of the favourite. Gavin Henson is out, and they have only won once out of the last 5 encounters in Scotland.

Backing the away side will never make you rich, so I am tempted to give the Scotland a +5.5 head start at 10/11 with Ladbrokes. Another decent bet could be Scotland to score first at 11/10, which would really put the cat amongst the pigeons. As of early 2007, Scotland have scored the first points in 16 of their 22 matches.

2/1 Scotland are missing both Euan Murray and Nathan Hines, and will start the match without Chris Paterson.

Compare odds on bookies.com before having a bet on the rugby:

Scotland v Wales Match Betting

Scotland v Wales Handicap Betting

Six Nations Winner Betting

Six Nations Grand Slam Winner Betting

Six Nations Triple Crown Winner Betting

Like all big betting events, it makes sense to start with the favourites. Should we be backing 2/1 Wales, or be looking to take them on?

Last year’s winners Wales have been backed from 5/2 into 2/1, and are 6/1 for the Grand Slam. They may not have the best team on paper, but confidence will be brimming with the solid club performances of both the Ospreys and the Blues.

Ladbrokes are ducking the favourites by only offering 7/4, but I’d be looking to take them on, maybe as early as this Sunday. They are 1/2 for their away trip to Scotland, but I’d would opt for the home side on the handicap (+6) for value’s sake.

England aren’t of interest, even at 9/2. Then got trounced in the autumn internationals, but that was hardly surprising. Martin Johnson’s side haven’t had the best press, and brave selections such as Andy Goode are already being questioned before the tournament. They also have a difficult schedule, but expect them to make light work of Italy at 1/7.

In the outright winner market, I am caught up between France and Ireland - both 7/2. We’ll know more about the 2 sides after he clash in Saturday’s Croke Park fixture, but by then one of the 2 sides could be the new favourite.

French clubs have given a terrible showing in the Heineken Cup, but the international side are more than capable of pulling this off. Having been 4th in the 2007 Rugby World Cup, they have slipped down the world rankings to 7th. If they are well organised and if Lionel Beauxis is kicking well, 11/8 to beat Ireland will look lke a massive price.

French coach Marc Lièvremont is focused on the 2011 World Cup, meaning that I shall side with 7/2 IRELAND. If they win the match against France, they wil grow in confidence and give Wales a run for their money. Declan Kidney is a great tactician, who will be relying on his Munster pack and Brian O’Driscoll.

They beat Argentina 17-3 last November and are a fit team; so could be worth an in-running investment should they find themselves trailing in a match. Their recent away record is concerning, especially as they travel to both Scotland and Wales.

Italy are the 4/7 favourites for the wooden spoon.

Recommendation:

2pts @ 7/2 Ireland to Win 2009 Six Nations

Compare odds on bookies.com before having a bet on the rugby:

Six Nations Winner Betting

Six Nations Grand Slam Winner Betting

Six Nations Triple Crown Winner Betting

Magners League Winner Betting

Guinness Premiership Winner Betting

Heineken Cup Winner Betting

The economic crisis has also hit rugby clubs hard, with several English clubs left in severe difficulty. The transfer period opens in mid May, where we could see a number of high profile transfers. The window is only open for a month, which is why clubs, agents and players are already in discussions.

Jonny Wilkinson could be the most high profile transfer of the year, and you’ll be surprised to hear that his most likely destination is France. Last year it was unthinkable, but now with the credit crunch things have changed in the rugby world. Dan Carter’s transfer to Perpignan proved that anything is possible, so I wouldn’t bet against Wilkinson moving across The Channel.

If there was a market available, his departure from Newcastle would be odds-on. The clubs said to be interested at this stage are Bayonne and Racing-Métro. Wilkinson is currently injured (again) and should return in March. That means he won’t be taking part in the 6 Nations, in which England are 10/3.

Jamie Noon, also 29 years old, could be offloaded to Brive, whilst Stade Français are looking at Tom Palmer, James Haskell and Iain Balshaw.

Danny Cipriani may look like a surprise move at this stage, but he could be of interest to Bayonne and Perpignan, who are both looking for a Number 10.

Sébastien Chabal has already said that he will return to France, but we aren’t quite sure where yet. He still attracts a lot of press and was supposed to join Montpellier, but since then he has also been linked to Racing-Métro and Toulon. French captain, Lionel Nallet, will leave Castres to join up with either Montpellier or Bayonne.

Compare odds on bookies.com before having a bet on the rugby:

6 Nations Winner Betting

Magners League Winner Betting

Guinness Premiership Winner Betting

Heineken Cup Winner Betting

A disappointing weekend for us. We backed Rebecca Adlington for Sports Personality at 10/3, who was just 4/7 on the night. The winner, Chris Hoy, drifted like a barge out to 7/1! 7/1 JLS put in a great performance on Saturday night, but finished 2nd.

Still if you followed our advice to ‘lay Man U at 1.93 on Betfair’ you won’t have done too badly. Nor if you backed the ‘Big 4′ all to draw at accumulated odds of 366/1. Tonight there’s Charlton v Derby and Motherwell v Kilmarnock if you’re looking for a bet, but today we’re previewing the Heineken Cup.

The biggest story from this weekend was Dan Carter’s successful debut for Perpignan, helping them to overcome Leicester 26-20. You can’t really call the result a shock, as Perpignan are 3rd in the French Top 14. The result saw the Tigers get pushed out to 12/1 from 10s, although they still head Group 3 thanks to a losing bonus point.

The main benefactors are the 16/1 Ospreys who must now fancy their chances of progressing. They’ll meet the Tigers at the Liberty stadium in January, in what’s set to be a crunch tie. London Wasps, also 16/1, are in a similar situation, in that they face 9/1 Leinster in a crucial tie at Twickenham next month.

7/2 Toulouse are pretty well fancied, and they dominated Newport this weekend to maintain their 100% record. Skrela picked up an injury, but he should only be out for a month. Vincent Clerc should be back in action soon after his 8 month injury. Toulouse are 4/11 to win their group, but may rue not picking up a bonus point this weekend.

66/1 Sale lost at Montauban, even though they thrashed them 36-6 last week. They are now out to 9/2 to win their group, which includes last year’s winners, 5/1 Munster. Munster struggled against Clermont on Saturday, needing 2 late tries to win.

With Munster unconvincing, it’s no surprise to see support for unbeaten sides Harlequins and Cardiff. The Blues are flying the flag for Wales, in a tournament that is usually dominated by the big guns of European rugby. They were originally priced at 28/1, but their odds have tumbled after each victory.

Quins were originally 66/1, but are now into 8/1 following 2 upsets against 33/1 Stade Francais. They showed great compusure in the game, and only won with a drop goal scored in the dying seconds. If Stade get 10 points in their next 2 games, they could well escape the group. Group winners all progress to the next round, along with the 2 best runners-up. Take a look at the current teams lying 2nd in their group, and only Stade and Leicester have 2 seemingly simple fixtures.

SkyBet have a market for the Winning Nation, although the odds are fairly prohibitive. Ireland are the 15/8 favourites, with England available at 2/1 and France at 9/4. Wales are the 5/1 outsiders, having been 10/1 in October.

Recommendation:

1pt 33/1 Stade Francais

Heineken Cup Betting

Heineken Cup Winning Nation Betting

Heineken Cup Group Betting

France are a top priced 7/4 to win the 2008 Six Nations championship, despite being beaten by rivals England in the World Cup rugby semi-finals last summer.

Les Bleus are as short as 5/4 with Ladbrokes but are on offer at 7/4 with Corals, who clearly want to ‘get’ the Gallic team.

England are second favourites at a top price of 5/2 with betinternet, which is also a hugely generous price compared with most bookies.

Next up in the betting are Ireland at a general 11/2, followed by Wales at 9/1 and Scotland at 14/1. Italy are, as usual, the massive outsiders and are offered at 100/1.

The difference of opinions means bookies are betting to 98% on the Six Nations winner; that means you can currently bet on every side and be guaranteed to make a profit on the event.

The bookies clearly believe that there is no dominant side among the six as you can bet on there being no Grand Slam winner at a best price of 4/5 with Skybet. No Triple Crown winner is a 2/1 shot.

At Bookies.com we are still waiting for a proper set of spread betting prices to come out so we can have a bet on a low scoring Six Nations season. Evidence from recent rugby union fixtures in the Heineken Cup and Premiership games suggest the top sides are doing a lot more time wasting and diversionary tactics once they are in the lead and I think this all adds up to low scoring (and slightly dull) games.

Check out the Six Nations 2008 winner betting or the Six Nations Betting Index at bookies.com