Bookies Blog

The 2010 BRIT Awards take place on 16 February and will be screened live on ITV1. As ever, the bookies have priced up the nominees according to their theoretical chances of winning an award.

Duffy made waves in the betting last year as she scooped a total of three awards: British Breakthrough, Best Female Solo and Best British Album. Winning multiple awards on the same night is eminently possible, and has been done by the likes of Coldplay and Oasis in the past.

Therefore it may be a sound betting strategy to support your favourite group or singer across a range of markets.

JLS are the 6/4 favourites to win Best British Single for ‘Beat Again’, but will have to fight off competition from Cheryl Cole’s ‘Fight For This Love’ which is a 15/8 chance with Bet365. 2009 was a good year for genres such as R&B and hip hop, but the likes of Taio Cruz and N-Dubz aren’t given much of a chance at odds of 20/1 each.

JLS could also cap off a great night with the Best Group award, but Kasabian are the hot favourites at 5/6 in that betting market.

Nevertheless many pundits believe that this year’s Brit Awards will be a night dominated by the ladies. Lady GaGa, Florence and the Machine, Pixie Lott and Alexandra Burke all have nominations and solid chances respectively.

Florence and the Machine is strongly fancied in the Best Album market at 2/5 and could also take Best Female Artist at 9/4. Singer Florence Welch won Best Breakthrough Act last year, and has already received plenty of critical acclaim.

Paddy Power are best-priced at 2/7 about Lady GaGa winning Best International Female Artist - in what looks like a one horse race.

bookies.com is your best bet when it comes to comparing odds between the leading bookmakers:

British Male Solo Artist Betting

British Female Solo Artist Betting

Best Group Betting

British Breakthrough Act Betting

British Album Betting

British Single Betting

International Male Solo Artist Betting

International Female Solo Artist Betting

International Album Betting

International Breakthrough Act Betting

NME Awards Betting

Simon Cowell has described the Rage Against The Machine Facebook campaign as ’stupid’, but it still presents a very live threat to Joe McElderry’s divine right to Christmas Number One.

The X Factor winner is usually a banker for Christmas No. 1, but Joe’s cover of the Miley Cyrus single ‘The Climb‘ only has a 50% chance of claiming the prestigious top spot. Betfred are best-priced at evens, about an event that would not normally be a betting opportunity.

The Rage Against The Machine single (Killing In The Name Of) has been all the rage in the betting, and is now the 4/5 favourite from an early show of 6/1 at the beginning of this month.

Paddy Power offer a generous 1/18 that RATM wins in the market without The Climb. Bet £18,000 to win £1,000, and your Christmas will be sorted.

In another popular festive market, William Hill and Ladbrokes have reported decent money for a White Christmas. Snow in London on the 25th is now a 9/4 possibility with Betfred and Stan James. Paddy Power won’t tempt any punters with 66/1 about Big Ben to stop working due to the frost!

Ricky Whittle is favourite to win this year’s Strictly Come Dancing, and can be backed at 8/11.

bookies.com compares specials markets online:

2009 Xmas Number One Betting Odds

Winner without X Factor Betting

Strictly Come Dancing Betting

White Christmas Betting

Ladbrokes go 4/1 that Alistair Darling says ’sorry’ at anytime during tomorrow’s budget speech, but all us cynics know that the real odds ought to be more like 100/1! That said, ’sorry’ has been backed in from 20/1.

The ‘to say anytime’ market is always fun to look at, but this year the bookies are even offering odds on the colour of the Chancellor’s tie.

Red is the 7/4 favourite, but will Darling stay loyal to his Party’s colours? Blue is a 3/1 chance, but I like the prospect of pink at 5/2.

He wore purple last year, which we can safely discount at 6/1. Is Darling’s fashion sense as bad as his grip on the economy? Brown is 33/1 with William Hill! 

The Chancellor is expected to extend the stamp duty holiday on homes below the £175,000 threshold, meaning that 1/6 is an attractive price for him to say ’stamp duty’. ‘Climate change’ is also easy money at 1/5 as Darling will try to justify spending his way out of the recession.

Paddy Power go 4/6 that a rise in income tax is announced and 1/3 for an increase in beer duty.

bookies.com compares political betting odds online:

The Budget 2009 To Say Anytime Betting

The Budget 2009 Tie Colour Betting

The Budget 2009 Length of Speech Betting

We’ve only had one episode of Britain’s Got Talent, but that hasn’t stopped the bookies from ducking a short-priced favourite.

Susan Boyle stunned judges with I Dreamed A Dream on Saturday’s show, and already has her backers. The 47 year old had been available at 4/1 with totesport earlier, but is now best-priced at 9/4 with Boylesports.

No doubt that Boyles will conjure up some imaginative publicity in time - they share the same name!

9/4 is an extremely short price given that we don’t know Susan’s competition, but she created such a tidal wave on Saturday that we could see her go odds-on.

The unemployed virgin will be well supported by Scotland and has an incredible voice.

Normally at Bookies Blog, we like to oppose the short-priced favourites in the specials markets - but time and time again they do the business. For every Ray Quinn (Dancing On Ice) there is a Verne Troyer (CBB 2nd), so punters should tread with caution.

Dance act Flawless are 5/1, but Susan will probably encounter tougher opposition later on in the show.

Paddy Power bet 1/3 that Susan signs a deal with Simon’s record label. Simon will be very keen to cash in on Susan’s image and voice - 2007 BGT winner Paul Potts has already pocketed a cool £6m.

bookies.com is your best bet for comparing odds for specials markets.

Britain’s Got Talent 09 Betting

FHM 100 Sexiest Women Betting

Poet Laureate Betting

Eurovision Betting

BAFTAs Betting

We should be perhaps covering the Champions League this week, but at bookies.com we thought that we’d turn to matters more pressing…

Cheryl ‘Tweedy’ Cole (pictured) is Paddy Power’s 4/6 favourite in the betting for the 2009 FHM Sexiest Poll. She finished 7th in 2008, but we’re not sure that she should be such a short price.

The 25 year old is statistically up against it - only 2 out of the last 10 winners were in her age category. The under 23s have a fair record - 5 wins. Punters should really focus on the candidates between the ages of 20 and 23.

Last year’s laureate Megan Fox is also a short price at 5/4. She is 22 years old and has been tipped up as the next Lara Croft; but she doesn’t like to be acknowledged as a sex symbol.

2001 was the last year that the sexiest woman defended her crown - Jennifer Lopez. This year she is an unconsidered 80/1.

Unfortunately Paddy Power aren’t offering any each way terms, but Olga Kurylenko may still be good value at 10/1.

Ольга Костянтинівна Куриленко is clearly Ukranian, and made her name in the latest Bond film - Quantum of Solace. 

Bond fans may want to check out the market on the Next Bond Girl. Freida Pinto (Slumdog Millionaire) is the 3/1 favourite.  

Finally a gem of a quote from 12/1 Keeley Hazell:

If I’m swimming in a pool and my bikini pops off, I’m not bothered and carry on.

The betting usually gets these polls pretty much spot-on, so any late market moves could prove significant.

bookies.com is your best bet for comparing odds for specials markets.

FHM 100 Sexiest Women Betting

Poet Laureate Betting

Eurovision Betting

BAFTAs Betting

Paddy Power have markets on The Next Pope, Archbishop of Canterbury and Bank Of England Governor, but today we’ll cast a betting eye over William Hill’s Poet Laureate market.

Andrew Motion has to step down next month after his 10 year stint, which means you’ll get a good run for your money now instead of waiting for Pope Benedict XVI to die.

Motion will not be involved in the selection process, and has been heavily criticised for his job.

Carol Ann Duffy is the 5/4 co-favourite to become the first female Poet Laureate. Hills report that 94% of bets have been for her, but at that price they’ll be keen to lay her. She was the favourite in 1999, but was snubbed. She rubbished rumours of a contest with Andrew Motion, and it is thought that she would gladly accept the position this year.

We could see her go odds-on in a couple of weeks time, but the current odds are pretty skinny for my liking. Her work is accessible and she merits her position as favourite.

Simon Armitage has been halved in price from 5/2 into 5/4. He has received several awards for his poetry. He also lost out in 1999 but is still very positive about the position, even though he won’t comment on his own chances.

Wendy Cope has drifted from 3/1 out to 10/1 having declared herself out of the running. The bookies will still tempt punters at the price who aren’t in the know.

Roger McGough is 6/1, and has already received an O.B.E. That price seems a bit short, but he’ll be on The Department for Culture, Media and Sport’s shortlist. Remember the final decision is taken by the Queen, but you can’t imagine that she’d spark controversy.

James Fenton is the next realistic candidate at 8/1, with the rest of the field at bigger prices. He received the Queen’s Gold Medal for Poetry 2007.

bookies.com is your best bet for comparing odds for specials markets.

Next Poet Laureate Betting

The Top 13 have been revealed for American Idol, which marks the start of a significant betting stage.

The finals were meant to feature 12 contestants, but the judges decided to also advance Anoop Desai, who is 16/1 with Paddy Power in the win market.

The show drags on until May 20, and it is now the viewers who will have the final say in who wins.

The list of finalists is dominated by male vocalists, but the females shouldn’t be discounted just yet. You can back the men in the Winning Gender market at 8/13 with Stan James.

Adam Lambert is the 9/4 favourite, and is popular with the judges. He has been a stage actor since the age of 10, but has been criticised on the show for being too theatrical.

Danny Gokey is at 5/1, and was praised for his rendition of Mariah Carey’s Hero. He recently lost his wife and is sure to be popular with the voters.

Punters should look for contestants who can attract the sympathetic votes - 6/1 Lil Rounds lost her Memphis home last year due to a tornado! She has caught the attention of the judges, along with 16/1 Alexis Grace.

12/1 Matt Giraud has been slashed with several bookmakers, but only made the finals from the wild card show.

Scott Macintyre looks a decent bet at 22/1 with bet365. Scott was home-schooled and only has a 2% field of vision. He is incredibly talented, and should give you a run for your money.

Michael Sarver is the 5/2 favourite in the next eviction market.

Paddy Power currently have a couple of other specials - including 4/1 that the eventual winner has a UK No.1 single in 2009.

Recommendation:

1pt @ 22/1 Scott Macintyre (Bet365)

bookies.com is your best bet for comparing odds for specials markets.

American Idol Winner Betting

The Brit Awards take place tomorrow (Wednesday 18) and you can follow the action on ITV1 from 8pm.

Rather unfortunately for an odds comparison site (bookies.com), there aren’t any odds to compare after bookmakers have suspended the markets. William Hill were forced to stop taking any bets after a number of decent sized wagers were put on 5/1 Paul Weller in the Best Male Solo Artist Category.

They cut the price into 1/5, but they were still taking £50 bets in the London area. Ladbrokes, Paddy Power and totesport have followed suit in suspending all the markets, except Best British Single which is decided by the public. The Betfair markets have also been suspended, with Paul Weller matched at a low of 1.15.

Girls Aloud - The Promise is the 11/8 favourite to win Best Single, having been matched at 13/1 high on the exchanges. They are also the only female group nominated in the Best Group category.

Duffy (Mercy) is next at 7/4, and may be a better bet, given that this category is a bit of a lottery. The fact that she will perform on the show may affect the voting in her favour - she is also nominated for Best British Female, Best British Album and British Breakthrough Act.

If I was having a bet, I’d got for 7/2 Viva La Vida by Coldplay, even though it has drifted in the market. Coldplay had the best selling album of 2008 and VLV was their first single to top the charts.

Leona Lewis is 9/1 for ‘Better in Time‘. There is a rumour that she won’t turn up for the ceremony, having not picked up anything last year.

Bookies Blog is not strictly a tipping service - we just preview the major betting events and sometimes come up with a bit of value. Take the Betfair Ascot Chase for example, we wanted to take on 6/5 Voy Por Ustedes. The race was a terrible betting race, with only 2 places. We managed to steer you towards the banker of the weekend though, 7/5 Wendel who cruised home by 11 lengths.

We cannot give you winners every day of the betting week, so we’ve decided to take a look at the best places on the web to find reliable free tips.

Betting @ Betfair

Plenty of previews and tips across a range of sports, with many geared towards exchange betting. As well as sports tipsters, there are poker articles and a blog by a financial analyst. Nick Shiambouros has a particularly good record with his ‘80/20 bet’ for horses with place prospects.

Betdaq Extra

Not as many writers as Betfair, but the ‘Daqman’ often has some terrific horse racing bets. He likes to go for the odds long-shot, as well as regular ‘banker’ bets. His lays have a much better record and he’s currently on 182 successful ones.

Betting Zone

The Zone has a great record, having notched up over 2000pts of profit since it began in 2003. That doesn’t mean they all come home, with the majority of those wins coming in golf. Simon Holt has a good racing column, often with a couple of Saturday bets.

Daily Donkey

Laying 12/1 shots isn’t my cup of tea, but the Daily Donkey team seem to consistently register profits. They lay so many ‘donkeys’ that the odd freak winner doesn’t break the bank. Don’s Diary has the lay of the day.

Adrian Massey

Brilliant statistical analysis for UK horse racing. Adrain’s own ratings can be a great way to filter through a tricky race and can show the way to a few winners.

Racing Post Tipping

Pricewise Extra has a couple of selections from mid-day, which are different to those in the print edition. Personally I prefer Andrew Barr to Tom Segal.

Newspaper Naps

Failing those options, the newspaper naps table has the daily naps from the UK newspaper tipsters, as well as their records. Rob Wright (The Times) is the Champion Tipster and is usually a good bet.

Compare odds on bookies.com before having a bet, to ensure that you are getting the best price available.

The British Academy Film Awards (BAFTAs) are the nearest thing that Britain has to the Oscars, meaning that the betting is very similar. They take place on the 8th February and will almost certainly have an effect on the odds for the Oscars betting markets.

Whilst most nominations are the same, there are some regional differences which punters have to take into account. For example, in the Original Screenplay category foreign films such as Burn After Reading and I’ve Loved You So Long have picked up BAFTA nominations.

In the Best Actress Category, the Brits have gone for Kate Winslet (twice!) and Kristin Scott Thomas (25/1). Over the sea, the Americans preferred to give Melissa Leo a shock nomination. This actress protectionism means that I still think Anne Hathaway is a good bet for an Oscar (3/1 Victor Chandler), because Winslet keeps coming up short.

Kate is already preparing an acceptance speech for her BAFTA award, but we don’t know yet which film she’ll get in for: either The Reader (11/10) or Revolutionary Road (6/4). If I was pushed to have a bet in that category, I’d go for The Reader, which has nominations for Best Film and Best Director.

Slumdog Millionaire will probably make the headlines, and Ladbrokes are taking bets on just how many BAFTAs it’ll scoop up. 5-6 Awards is their 5/4 favourite, whilst 7-8 Awards is on offer for 6/4. 9-10 Awards may be of interest to some optimistic punters at 8/1.

I don’t fancy lead actor Dev Patel to pick up Best Actor at 10/1, but Danny Boyle should win Best Director at 2/9. Ladbrokes go 1/4 that Slumdog wins Best Film, and it could even Outstanding British Film at 8/11, but Hunger could be a better bet at 5/2.

Bet with caution, but it could also take Music, Editing, Production Design and Adapted Screenplay. If it doesn’t do as well as expected, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button looks like the one to benefit (8/1 Best Film, Bet365).

bookies.com is an odds comparison site, where you can check out Oscars and BAFTAs Betting:

BAFTAs 2009 Best Film Betting

BAFTAs 2009 Best Director Betting

BAFTAs 2009 Best Actor Betting

BAFTAs 2009 Best Actress Betting

BAFTAs 2009 Best Supporting Actor Betting

BAFTAs 2009 Best Supporting Actress Betting

BAFTAs 2009 Outstanding British Film Film Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Film Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Actor Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Actress Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Director Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Supporting Actor Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Supporting Actress Betting