Bookies Blog

Paddy Power have markets on The Next Pope, Archbishop of Canterbury and Bank Of England Governor, but today we’ll cast a betting eye over William Hill’s Poet Laureate market.

Andrew Motion has to step down next month after his 10 year stint, which means you’ll get a good run for your money now instead of waiting for Pope Benedict XVI to die.

Motion will not be involved in the selection process, and has been heavily criticised for his job.

Carol Ann Duffy is the 5/4 co-favourite to become the first female Poet Laureate. Hills report that 94% of bets have been for her, but at that price they’ll be keen to lay her. She was the favourite in 1999, but was snubbed. She rubbished rumours of a contest with Andrew Motion, and it is thought that she would gladly accept the position this year.

We could see her go odds-on in a couple of weeks time, but the current odds are pretty skinny for my liking. Her work is accessible and she merits her position as favourite.

Simon Armitage has been halved in price from 5/2 into 5/4. He has received several awards for his poetry. He also lost out in 1999 but is still very positive about the position, even though he won’t comment on his own chances.

Wendy Cope has drifted from 3/1 out to 10/1 having declared herself out of the running. The bookies will still tempt punters at the price who aren’t in the know.

Roger McGough is 6/1, and has already received an O.B.E. That price seems a bit short, but he’ll be on The Department for Culture, Media and Sport’s shortlist. Remember the final decision is taken by the Queen, but you can’t imagine that she’d spark controversy.

James Fenton is the next realistic candidate at 8/1, with the rest of the field at bigger prices. He received the Queen’s Gold Medal for Poetry 2007.

bookies.com is your best bet for comparing odds for specials markets.

Next Poet Laureate Betting

The Top 13 have been revealed for American Idol, which marks the start of a significant betting stage.

The finals were meant to feature 12 contestants, but the judges decided to also advance Anoop Desai, who is 16/1 with Paddy Power in the win market.

The show drags on until May 20, and it is now the viewers who will have the final say in who wins.

The list of finalists is dominated by male vocalists, but the females shouldn’t be discounted just yet. You can back the men in the Winning Gender market at 8/13 with Stan James.

Adam Lambert is the 9/4 favourite, and is popular with the judges. He has been a stage actor since the age of 10, but has been criticised on the show for being too theatrical.

Danny Gokey is at 5/1, and was praised for his rendition of Mariah Carey’s Hero. He recently lost his wife and is sure to be popular with the voters.

Punters should look for contestants who can attract the sympathetic votes – 6/1 Lil Rounds lost her Memphis home last year due to a tornado! She has caught the attention of the judges, along with 16/1 Alexis Grace.

12/1 Matt Giraud has been slashed with several bookmakers, but only made the finals from the wild card show.

Scott Macintyre looks a decent bet at 22/1 with bet365. Scott was home-schooled and only has a 2% field of vision. He is incredibly talented, and should give you a run for your money.

Michael Sarver is the 5/2 favourite in the next eviction market.

Paddy Power currently have a couple of other specials – including 4/1 that the eventual winner has a UK No.1 single in 2009.

Recommendation:

1pt @ 22/1 Scott Macintyre (Bet365)

bookies.com is your best bet for comparing odds for specials markets.

American Idol Winner Betting

The Brit Awards take place tomorrow (Wednesday 18) and you can follow the action on ITV1 from 8pm.

Rather unfortunately for an odds comparison site (bookies.com), there aren’t any odds to compare after bookmakers have suspended the markets. William Hill were forced to stop taking any bets after a number of decent sized wagers were put on 5/1 Paul Weller in the Best Male Solo Artist Category.

They cut the price into 1/5, but they were still taking £50 bets in the London area. Ladbrokes, Paddy Power and totesport have followed suit in suspending all the markets, except Best British Single which is decided by the public. The Betfair markets have also been suspended, with Paul Weller matched at a low of 1.15.

Girls Aloud – The Promise is the 11/8 favourite to win Best Single, having been matched at 13/1 high on the exchanges. They are also the only female group nominated in the Best Group category.

Duffy (Mercy) is next at 7/4, and may be a better bet, given that this category is a bit of a lottery. The fact that she will perform on the show may affect the voting in her favour – she is also nominated for Best British Female, Best British Album and British Breakthrough Act.

If I was having a bet, I’d got for 7/2 Viva La Vida by Coldplay, even though it has drifted in the market. Coldplay had the best selling album of 2008 and VLV was their first single to top the charts.

Leona Lewis is 9/1 for ‘Better in Time‘. There is a rumour that she won’t turn up for the ceremony, having not picked up anything last year.

Bookies Blog is not strictly a tipping service – we just preview the major betting events and sometimes come up with a bit of value. Take the Betfair Ascot Chase for example, we wanted to take on 6/5 Voy Por Ustedes. The race was a terrible betting race, with only 2 places. We managed to steer you towards the banker of the weekend though, 7/5 Wendel who cruised home by 11 lengths.

We cannot give you winners every day of the betting week, so we’ve decided to take a look at the best places on the web to find reliable free tips.

Betting @ Betfair

Plenty of previews and tips across a range of sports, with many geared towards exchange betting. As well as sports tipsters, there are poker articles and a blog by a financial analyst. Nick Shiambouros has a particularly good record with his ’80/20 bet’ for horses with place prospects.

Betdaq Extra

Not as many writers as Betfair, but the ‘Daqman’ often has some terrific horse racing bets. He likes to go for the odds long-shot, as well as regular ‘banker’ bets. His lays have a much better record and he’s currently on 182 successful ones.

Betting Zone

The Zone has a great record, having notched up over 2000pts of profit since it began in 2003. That doesn’t mean they all come home, with the majority of those wins coming in golf. Simon Holt has a good racing column, often with a couple of Saturday bets.

Daily Donkey

Laying 12/1 shots isn’t my cup of tea, but the Daily Donkey team seem to consistently register profits. They lay so many ‘donkeys’ that the odd freak winner doesn’t break the bank. Don’s Diary has the lay of the day.

Adrian Massey

Brilliant statistical analysis for UK horse racing. Adrain’s own ratings can be a great way to filter through a tricky race and can show the way to a few winners.

Racing Post Tipping

Pricewise Extra has a couple of selections from mid-day, which are different to those in the print edition. Personally I prefer Andrew Barr to Tom Segal.

Newspaper Naps

Failing those options, the newspaper naps table has the daily naps from the UK newspaper tipsters, as well as their records. Rob Wright (The Times) is the Champion Tipster and is usually a good bet.

Compare odds on bookies.com before having a bet, to ensure that you are getting the best price available.

The British Academy Film Awards (BAFTAs) are the nearest thing that Britain has to the Oscars, meaning that the betting is very similar. They take place on the 8th February and will almost certainly have an effect on the odds for the Oscars betting markets.

Whilst most nominations are the same, there are some regional differences which punters have to take into account. For example, in the Original Screenplay category foreign films such as Burn After Reading and I’ve Loved You So Long have picked up BAFTA nominations.

In the Best Actress Category, the Brits have gone for Kate Winslet (twice!) and Kristin Scott Thomas (25/1). Over the sea, the Americans preferred to give Melissa Leo a shock nomination. This actress protectionism means that I still think Anne Hathaway is a good bet for an Oscar (3/1 Victor Chandler), because Winslet keeps coming up short.

Kate is already preparing an acceptance speech for her BAFTA award, but we don’t know yet which film she’ll get in for: either The Reader (11/10) or Revolutionary Road (6/4). If I was pushed to have a bet in that category, I’d go for The Reader, which has nominations for Best Film and Best Director.

Slumdog Millionaire will probably make the headlines, and Ladbrokes are taking bets on just how many BAFTAs it’ll scoop up. 5-6 Awards is their 5/4 favourite, whilst 7-8 Awards is on offer for 6/4. 9-10 Awards may be of interest to some optimistic punters at 8/1.

I don’t fancy lead actor Dev Patel to pick up Best Actor at 10/1, but Danny Boyle should win Best Director at 2/9. Ladbrokes go 1/4 that Slumdog wins Best Film, and it could even Outstanding British Film at 8/11, but Hunger could be a better bet at 5/2.

Bet with caution, but it could also take Music, Editing, Production Design and Adapted Screenplay. If it doesn’t do as well as expected, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button looks like the one to benefit (8/1 Best Film, Bet365).

bookies.com is an odds comparison site, where you can check out Oscars and BAFTAs Betting:

BAFTAs 2009 Best Film Betting

BAFTAs 2009 Best Director Betting

BAFTAs 2009 Best Actor Betting

BAFTAs 2009 Best Actress Betting

BAFTAs 2009 Best Supporting Actor Betting

BAFTAs 2009 Best Supporting Actress Betting

BAFTAs 2009 Outstanding British Film Film Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Film Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Actor Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Actress Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Director Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Supporting Actor Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Supporting Actress Betting

Dancing On Ice returns to our screens this Sunday, and the celebrities that are set to take part have already been announced. That means that now is a terrific time to place a bet, because some of the prices will change drastically once the show starts.

Ray Quinn is the 7/2 favourite, already in from 5/1 before the show has even started. I can see the logic of that market move, because he will be popular with the oldies – he made it to the final of the X Factor. Ray has been very enthusiastic and is said to be out of the the others’ league. If the reports are to be believed, 7/2 could look like a great price after Sunday’s show.

The other contender that has been hotly tipped is Jessica Taylor, who is 5/1 with totesport. Kevin Pietersen‘s wife competed in the BBC version 4 years ago, so could hold an advantage over the others. David Seaman also took part in both shows, but flopped in Dancing on Ice in 2006. Coleen Nolan has said that Jessica is like a ‘ballerina on ice’.

Actress Roxanne Pallett is a 9/1 shot, although Victor Chandler take no chances at 11/2. She came 4th in the 2008 Sexiest Soap Babe poll and is getting on well with skating partner Daniel Whiston. (His backside is ‘like a brick’).

Gemma Bissix has weakened out to 10/1 from 7/1, and is standing in for Jennifer Metcalfe. Zoe Salmon (10/1) is the eye-candy, and has performed in an ice skating challenge on Blue Peter.

12/1 Melinda Messenger looks one to oppose, because she ‘couldn’t even get around [her local rink] on her own or without holding onto somebody’. Her partner Fred left last year’s show in the first week.

20/1 Graeme Le Saux is scared, and is watching Blades of Glory once a week to prepare. Skybet are taking on Todd Carty at 28/1, whilst other bookies go 20/1. Todd says that ‘he is not a good dancer’.

20/1 Jeremy Edwards looks like a very good bet to me because he is talented and physically fit. He is competitive but still needs to get the hang of the choreography.

bookies.com compares a wide range of odds for specials markets:

Dancing on Ice Winner Betting

Dancing on Ice Winning Gender Betting

Celebrity Big Brother Winner Betting

Celebrity Big Brother Next Eviction Betting

We wish you a very happy and prosperous new year, and hope that we can continue our betting form into 2009. To celebrate, we’re featuring SkyBet’s incredible list of 2009 specials. I must say the odds are fairly shocking, but it’s pretty amusing to see what the lads at Skybet have conjured up to tempt us.

Odds of 14/1 on the Queen to abdicate are shocking, it should be greater than 100/1! That said, Paddy Power are also running several specials, and have reminded us of what you could’ve got last year if you had lumped on:

8/11      Spice Girls were the first band to split

8/11      Mucca walked away with less than £50million of Paul McCartney’s fortune

15/8      Lewis Hamilton was crowned 2008 F1 champion

5/1        Team GB won more than 12 gold medals at the Olympics

11/2      Barack Obama was elected the 44^th US President

6/1        Madonna and Guy Ritchie were the first celebrity couple to file for divorce

12/1      Peaches Geldof was the first singleton to get married

18/1      Ibiza was Wayne Rooney’s chosen stag weekend destination

If you were pressing me to take one of Skybet’s specials, I’d probably take 10/1 about Chris Moyles being sacked from Radio 1. He has been on thin ice for a while now, and who knows what 2009 holds? Will we finally capture Osama bin Laden at 5/1?!

Perhaps one of the bets of 2009 is a General Election to be held in June 2009 at 4/1 with Ladbrokes. Gordon Brown may want to capitalise on the Obama visit or simply cash in before we find out how bad the economy really is.

I am looking forward to the Cheltenham Festival next year, as well as the Six Nations. Also of interest are The Tour de France, The Ashes, Wimbledon and the Champions League.

2009 SPECIALS:

X Factor Final 3 all have UK no. 1 singles 20/1

Lindsay Lohan and Samantha Ronson marry in civil ceremony 6/4

UK win Eurovision 16/1

X Factor Winner sing on American Idol as guest 3/1

Lewis Hamilton and Nicole Sherzinger marry 10/1

UK come last in Eurovision 3/1

Louis Walsh not to be X Factor judge for 2009 series 3/1

Kate Moss marry Jamie Hince 3/1

UK get ‘nul point’ in Eurovision   10/1

Robbie Williams replace Dannii Minogue as judge on X Factor 2009 5/1

Pete Doherty and Kate Moss get back together officially   4/1

Amy Winehouse and Blake Fielder Civil to divorce 1/3

Simon Cowell not be X Factor panellist in 2009 3/1

Paul McCartney remarry 4/1

Kerry Katona and Mark Croft divorce 2/1

S Cowell announce he’ll stand as candidate in next election 20/1

Britney Spears marries again    4/1

Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie split    5/1

Simon Cowell come out as gay 50/1

Queen not record Xmas message 5/1

David Cameron have his bike stolen 6/1

X Factor Winner have 3 consecutive no. 1 singles by end 08    7/1

Chelsey and Harry get engaged 4/1

David Cameron grow a moustache   33/1

X Factor Winner not go straight to no. 1 official UK album chart with debut by end 08  5/6

Prince William or Prince Harry to marry 6/1

Madonna & G Ritchie get back together 50/1

X Factor 09 winner get Xmas no. 1 2009 1/4

Prince William and Kate Middleton get engaged 2/1

Osama Bin Laden be captured   5/1

X Factor winner 09 NOT get Xmas no. 1 2009 11/4

Queen to abdicate 14/1

Ant and Dec their get own individual TV shows 33/1

X Factor Final 3 all have UK no. 1 albums in 2008 8/1

Prince William and Kate Middleton split 5/2

Chris Moyles sacked from Radio 1 breakfast show 10/1

Diana Vickers and Eoghann Quigg release duet 3/1

Prince William become King 50/1

Russell Brand reinstated as Radio Two DJ 50/1

Cheryl Cole win FHM Sexiest Woman in the World 5/1

Terry Wogan Retire from his BBC Radio 2 breakfast show 6/4

Great white shark be caught off British shores 20/1

Girls Aloud split 5/6

Sports personality win Strictly Come Dancing 09 6/4

Gordon Brown be PM on 31/12/09 2/7

Leona’s fastest selling debut album record broken (375,872 in first week) 5/1

John Sergeant replace Bruce Forsyth as SCD host 10/1

David Cameron be PM on 31/12/09 11/4

Leona Lewis win best UK female at Brits 2/1

Anton Du Beke replace Bruce Forsyth as SCD host 6/1

Nick Clegg be PM on 31/12/09 100/1

Victoria Beckham have baby girl 6/1

Geri Halliwell do Strictly Come Dancing 09 8/1

Will Young announce his intention to stand as candidate in next GE 20/1

Cheryl and Ashley Cole have a baby 3/1

Bruce Forsyth NOT host Strictly Come Dancing 2009 5/4

PM to announce referendum on joining Euro 8/1

Charlotte Church has another baby 4/1

Jonny Vegas win SCD 09 16/1

UK adopt Euro as official currency 16/1

Posh & Becks adopt a child 10/1

Peter Mandelson win SCD 09 33/1

David Cameron arrested under anti-terrorism legislation 33/1

Angelina Jolie adopt again 2/1

Robbie Williams sing on a new Take That release (not old song)   3/1

The FTSE to be above 6000 on 31/12/09 6/1

Celeb Big Brother taken off air permanently mid series 10/1

Totally dry Wimbledon fortnight 10/1

The FTSE to be above 5000 on 31/12/09 5/4

Kate Winslet win Best Lead Actress Oscar 2/1

Rain every day Wimbledon 33/1

Congestion charge be introduced in a UK city by public vote 4/1

Heath Ledger win Best Supporting Actor at Oscars 1/4

David Beckham play in Premier League 3/1

Alexandra Burke, the winner of this year’s X Factor,has also just claimed the Christmas Number 1. ‘Hallelujah’ sold 576,000 copies to make Alexandra the fastest selling female solo artist since Leona Lewis.

The X Factor winner was initially priced up at 1/5 in the Christmas No.1 Betting, although that price was cut to 1/20 at the start of last week, making the event pretty prohibitive from a betting point of view. In terms of value, the best was probably 8/1 on the Hallelujah 1-2 as Jeff Buckley charted in 2nd, to win the market without the X Factor Winner.

Bookies had taken a lot of money for Leona Lewis, who covered Snow Patrol‘s Run. It was initially a 12/1 chance in the betting without the favourite, with acts such as Peter Kayand Terry Wogan were more fancied. Run was  strongly odds-on last week to chart in 2nd, but could only manage 3rd.

Punters were denied the Hallelujah hat-trick, after Leonard Cohen‘s original version charted in 36th.

Paddy Power offer 8/11 that Alexandra’s debut album is the best-selling UK album of 2009 and 5/1 that it’s the fastest selling debut album of all time in the UK and Ireland.

Christmas Snow Betting

The prospect of snow in London this Christmas looks extremely remote, even if we think it’s quite chilly already. Coral have recently pushed the price out for a White London Christmas from 4/1 to 6/1.That looks like a pretty bold move, as they they’ll certainly face big liabilities from the romantic punters, but the best punters will compare odds on bookies.com and find that bet365 are best-priced at 8/1. Coral’s market requires a measurable amount of snow to be verified by the Met Office in each British city, and it is worth checking the terms and conditions with your bookmaker.

For my long-term weather forecasts, I like to use AccuWeather which offers 15 day forecasts. It hasn’t let me down in the past, and is forecasting a high of 7C without any precipitation on the 25th. Betfred offer odds of 1/16 that it doesn’t snow on Christmas Day in London.

Bet365 have also priced up a number of Scandinavian cities, including 11/2 Copenhagen, 11/4 Gothenburg, 9/2 Malmo, 11/10 Oslo and 2/1 Stockholm. Readers who live in other UK cities should find a market that’s tailored for them.

Snow in Manchester is a 6/1 chance, but it looks more likely in Glasgow, where it’s a 7/2 shot. Birmingham is also 6/1, Cardiff 11/2 and Belfast is priced at 5/1 with Irish bookmaker Boylesports.

As a great follower of the money myself, it is not encouraging to see the odds on a White Christmas lengthening with most bookies. Betting on the White Christmas is unlikely to make you rich this year, as early forecasts suggest that it’ll be a cloudy, if not wet UK Christmas.

Instead, I’d advocate having a bet in the King George which take place on Boxing Day. Kauto Star may be short at 6/4, but 10/1 Our Vic should at least run into the places.

Snow on Xmas Day in Birmingham
Snow on Xmas Day in Cardiff
Snow on Xmas Eve in Copenhagen
Snow in Dublin on Xmas Day
Snow on Xmas Day in Glasgow
Snow on Xmas Eve in Gothenburg
Snow on Xmas Day in London
Snow on Xmas Eve in Malmo
Snow on Xmas Day in Manchester
Snow on Xmas Eve in Oslo
Snow on Xmas Eve in Stockholm
Snow on Xmas Day in Belfast

Top Christmas Film Betting

After last weekend’s farce where all 3 couple were put through into the final, you have to question whether it is a good idea to get stuck into the Strictly Come Dancing Betting. At bookies.com, when we see a market, there’s money to be made.

Unfortunately for those who had an eviction bet with either Betdirect, Boylesports, Coral, Paddy Power, Skybet and Stan James last weekend, they will stand for this weekend’s show. Ladbrokes and Bet365 are offering punters the chance to void bets, which is the fairest thing to do. After 1800 complaints received by the BBC, voters are being offered a refund, although their votes will still roll-over to Saturday night.

1/1 Tom Chambers

Judges have been pretty hard on Tom throughout the competition, but that he deserves more credit because he dances with such great enthusiasm and he has the difficult job of leading. You often see the girls put in mistakes, yet they continually get 10s. The judges may not like Tom’s choreography, but voters love the fact that he’s entertaining and confident.

Tom received the lowest score last week and was 1/3 to be evicted, but is the 7/2 outsider this time round.

13/8 Rachel Stevens

Rachel is next in the betting and the 2/5 favourite in the Top Woman market. Rachel and Vincent have a great chance of winning this series, as the outright winner betting basically has them in a match bet with Tom.

Stevens is performing the rumba, which she loves, and the foxtrot. She has promised to have more fun, and I think she stands a great chance at winning. She is technically sound and has been a model of consistency throughout the series.

13/2 Lisa Snowdon

Lisa’s partner, Brendan Cole, won the first series with Natasha Kaplinsky, but victory this time looks unlikely. She is probably the most improved of the 3, and always looks to be enjoying herself. I’d love her to win but she has often had to be saved by the judges. Lisa has been outscored by Rachel in 6 of the past 10 weeks and she is 4/6 to be evicted on Saturday.

Paddy Power are also taking bets on who will be the next host, after The Mirror reported that Bruce Forsyth is getting tired of his job. It is 6/4 that he doesn’t host next year’s series, and Paul O’Grady is the 13/8 favourite to replace him.

Bruce is now just 1/2 to be knighted in the New Year, having been gambled from 33/1.

Strictly Come Dancing Betting

Next Eviction Betting

Next Host Betting

Top Woman Betting

Gender of Winner Betting

Highest scoring Ballroom final dance

Highest scoring Latin final dance

Judge to give highest combined score in final 1st show

Lisa get perfect 40 in final (FT & CC)

Lisa lowest single mark (FT & CC)

Number of perfect 40s in final 1st show

Rachel get perfect 40 in final (FT & R)

Rachel lowest single mark (FT &R)

Tom get perfect 40 in final (FT or S)

Tom lowest single mark (FT & S)