After crashing out of Wimbledon in the Semi Finals against Andy Roddick, Andy Murray has been performing well on the hard courts and after an impressive display in Cincinnati, beating the up and coming Del Potro in the final, he has overtaken Rafael Nadal to No. 2 in the world rankings.

Murray however, is 10/3 second favourite to win the tournament behind a very short priced Federer, who is 11/10 with most bookmakers. Both of these prices seem pretty short and it seems there may be better value backing some of the outsiders each way. There is value to be had in Nadal who is priced at 8/1, but concerns linger over whether his knee can last the seven matches on the unforgiving courts at Flushing Meadows.

Guccione looks like a banker in his first round match against Cuevas, the Argentinean clay-courter. After a faltering start to the year Guccione has found some form with a win at the Aptos challenger in California, followed by an impressive win over Joe-Wilfried Tsonga at Cincinnati. The odds on the big-serving Australian look fairly short at 4/7 and therefore despite his form there is no real value in backing him. Likewise with Karol Beck who plays Maximo Gonzalez, who has very little experience on hard courts, having only ever played six hard court matches, whilst Beck has played in the US Open three times but 4/9 on Beck still seems too short to have a bet.

In the woman’s draw Serena Williams is the heavy favourite and is priced at 2/1. Her sister Venus comes in at 8/1 and despite her poor form since Wimbledon, she can never be ruled out of the big tournaments and the 8/1 might look friendly once we get into the second week.

Click here for all the betting on the US Open.

Rafael Nadal went into the Australian Open final as the bookmakers’ underdog, with Bet365 happy to offer 6/4. A barking price considering that he had won his last 4 matches against Roger Federer. Rafa beat the player of the tournament, Verdasco, whilst Roger beat Roddick with ease in his semi-final.

The money came in for Federer, who was the 4/6 favourite to win his 14th Grand Slam. We kept the faith in our 4/1 tip Nadal, telling readers that ‘he shouldn’t be dismissed’.

Before the tournament even began, we recommended Nadal as a strong bet to win the tournament at 4/1, steering readers past the overbet Andy Murray.

With question marks over Federer’s 2008, I’m happy to take 4/1 for Nadal to win. The reason Nadal’s odds are inflated is that he’s been out of action for 2 months with tendonitis, and he recently lost a match to Gael Monfils (66/1). That was a 2 set match and I’d expect him to give a better showing in Melbourne. He won the Olympic title on a similar surface last year in Beijing.

Perhaps you missed out on the 4/1 value bet of the tournament, well yesterday we pointed out some stunning value to be had before the final.

I won’t be topping up my Nadal bet, but those who didn’t take the price when advised to can have a look at the Set Betting. If you fancy an epic, Nadal is 6/1 with Sky Bet to win 3-2.

The 10/1 for Nadal to win the ‘Grand Slam’ was ‘bound to give you a run for your money’, and you wouldn’t bet against the World No.1 now. William Hill would, and they hold out at 11/1.

Nadal started as the outsider, but managed to break Federer in the first game of the match. Federer fought back gamely, which saw Nadal’s odds drift to 5/2 in running. Even though Fed won 1 more point than Nadal in the match, Nadal saw off his challenge in the first 5 set final in 21 years.

bookies.com compares tennis odds between the top UK bookmakers:

How many Grand Slams will Nadal win? Betting

Wimbledon 2009 Betting

French Open 2009 Betting

Roger Federer has been nibbled at in the betting ahead of Sunday night’s final against Rafael Nadal, and is best priced at 7/10 with Boylesports. It’s not that the bookies have made an error in chalking up their prices, they are being led by the betting public, and have little to lose following the early exit of the well backed Andy Murray.

The logic that make Federer favourite runs a bit like this: Nadal has had one day’s less rest and had a long game against Verdasco. True, but Rafa should be able to recover in time for the final, and I’m not at all concerned about our 4/1 tip.

His 5-set victory against Verdasco isn’t cause for concern – Verdasco proved that he is the form player by turning over Andy Murray. Meanwhile Federer only had to overcome Roddick is straight sets.

The World No. 1 shouldn’t be dismissed, and is 7/5 with Bet Chronicle. I’d also think about backing him at 10/1 to win the 2009 Grand Slam at this stage, because you’re bound to get a run for your money if he triumphs tomorrow.

You can also take 12/1 that the 2 players contest every Grand Slam final this year. It’s an even money chance that they meet in the Wimbledon final again, and they’ve contested the French Open final in each of the last 3 years.

I won’t be topping up my Nadal bet, but those who didn’t take the price when advised to can have a look at the Set Betting. If you fancy an epic, Nadal is 6/1 with Sky Bet to win 3-2.

bookies.com compares tennis odds between the top UK bookmakers:

Federer v Nadal Match Betting

Federer v Nadal Set Betting

Federer v Nadal Handicap Betting

Federer v Nadal First Ace Betting

Safina v S. Williams Match Betting

7/2 favoutire Venus Williams was matched at 1/100 on Betfair on her way to a 6-2, 3-6, 5-7 defeat to Carla Suarez Navarro today. The 20 year old Spaniard, 46th in the world, battled back in great fashion to defy in-running odds of 149/1.

She is now 300/1 with Stan James to win the tournament, in from 660/1. Her 3 set victory is brilliant news for followers of Bookies Blog, who were advised to oppose the Williams sisters.

Victor Chandler offered 4/5 before the tournament began that the winner wouldn’t be a Williams sister, which we highlighted as a decent wager. Serena Williams is the new tournament favourite at 10/3, and is looking to maintain her record in the Open.

Our other bets are also looking good at this stage. Nadal is in great form, and is now 7/2 from the advised 4/1. 6/5 Andy Murray not to win a set 6-0 is appreciating in value as his matches get tougher, and Mauresmo is 80/1 from an advised 100/1 to win the Women’s Tournament.

bookies.com compares tennis odds between the top UK bookmakers:

Australian Open Womens Title Betting

Australian Open Mens Winner Betting

Jérémy Chardy has been in good form this year, and is worth a small investment for tomorrow’s fixture against reigning champ Novak Djokovic. Chardy beat Marcos Daniel 6-4 6-4 6-1 on Monday, and is 10/1 for his next match with Bet365.

He may be 68th in the world rankings, but his opponent lost in the first round of the Brisbane tournament and was beaten by Nieminen in Sydney. Djokovic was hardly convincing in beating Andrea Stoppini yesterday, and it looked like he would be pushed to a 4th set. If you like to bet according to recent form, it is difficult to not to be tempted by Chardy.

I’ll have a couple of saver bets on the set betting market, Djokovic to win 3-1 and 3-2. Ladbrokes are best priced on both outcomes, 7/2 and 14/1 respectively.

Recommendation:

2pts @ 10/1 Chardy to beat Djokovic

1pt @ 7/2 Djokovic to win 3-1

1pt @ 14/1 Djokovic to win 3-2

bookies.com compares tennis odds between the top UK bookmakers:

J Chardy v N Djokovic Match Betting

J Chardy v N Djokovic Set Betting

Australian Open Mens Winner Betting

Australian Open Mens Will There be a New Winner? Betting

Australian Open Mens Big 4 v The Field Betting

Australian Open Andy Murray Specials

Australian Open Mens Winning Nation Betting

Australian Open Mens Federer to Lose Set Betting

Australian Open Womens Title Betting

Australian Open Womens Williams Sisters v The Field Betting

Olympic Champion Elena Dementieva looks like a terrific bet on paper at 8/1, to win the Australian Open. She has just won 2 WTA titles in Australia – Auckland and Sydney. The world No. 4 is unbeaten in 10 matches and has been cut by some bookmakers to 13/2.

Everything in place for a cast-iron bet. But her form needs closer inspection – she has never won a Grand Slam and hasn’t reached a final since 2004, where she lost 2 in straight sets. Recent form is one thing, but if she has a temperamental problem at Grand Slams it will pay to oppose her, at least until she wins one.

Venus Williams is just shading favouritism on Betfair, but most bookmakers go 7/2 for both Williams sisters. Serena has won the Australian Open 3 times in the last 6 years, but pundits still give Venus a better chance this year. Serena only managed to win 4 games against Dementieva in Sydney, but has won the Open on alternate years: 2003, 2005 and 2007.

Victor Chandler go evens that one of the sisters wins it, but I’d probably be on the 4/5 side of the fence – any other player to win. As well as having 10/1 Safina on your side, you’d also have the likes of 7/1 Jankovic and 12/1 Ivanovic. World No.1 Jankovic is still a maiden, which is why many will prefer to pick one of the Williams sisters.

Of those at bigger prices, Canbet’s 100/1 for Amélie Mauresmo looks far too big. She beat Ivanovic 6-3 6-2 in Brisbane but had to pull out of the semis with an injury. She is feeling better now and won this tournament in 2006.

Recommendation:

2pts 4/5 Winner not to be a Williams Sister

1/2 pt @ 100/1 Mauresmo to win Australian Open 2009

bookies.com compares tennis odds between the top UK bookmakers:

Australian Open Womens Title Betting

Australian Open Womens Williams Sisters v The Field Betting

Australian Open Mens Winner Betting

Australian Open Mens Will There be a New Winner? Betting

Australian Open Mens Big 4 v The Field Betting

The first Grand Slam of the year gets under way on Monday in Melbourne, and the Mens Betting is very tight at the top. At one point, it looked like Andy Murray would be sent off favourite, but Roger Federer is 11/4 after winning the Kooyong Classic.

Murray is 3/1 with Sportingbet, although most high street bookies are only prepared to lay you 5/2. He has beaten Federer twice this year and also Rafa Nadal in the Abu Dhabi exhibition tournament. He also won the Doha tournament last year, but crashed out to Tsonga in the Australian Open last year. If you are tempted by Murray, have a look at the specials markets where Skybet are offering some tasty prices.

You can get 12/1 that he wins the title after saving match point in any match, or 33/1 to win the title without dropping a set. My advice is to not get carried away, as I think this Murray-mania means there is good value to be found elsewhere. If you aren’t a fan, how about 6/5 that he doesn’t win a set 6-0? Also of interest could be his stage of elimination – Boylesports offer 15/2 for him to crash out in the Quarter Finals.

With question marks over Federer‘s 2008, I’m happy to take 4/1 for Nadal to win. The reason Nadal’s odds are inflated is that he’s been out of action for 2 months with tendonitis, and he recently lost a match to Gael Monfils (66/1). That was a 2 set match and I’d expect him to give a better showing in Melbourne. He won the Olympic title on a similar surface last year in Beijing.

His draw is fine, and it looks like the first real test will be Murray in the semis. Players to watch out for on the way are 250/1 Hewitt and 150/1 Gasquet. Richard Gasquet is extremely talented, but I will only take a financial interest on the grass surface. He is currently 66/1 for Wimbledon.

8/1 Novak Djokovic lost out in the ATP Sydney to Jarkko Nieminen, who is a 300/1 shot. David Nalbandian beat him in the final, and will go into the Australian Open full of confidence. He has been cut into 20/1 from 60s, and looks to have the best outside chance. You can get 4/1 with Skybet that someone from outside the ‘Big 4′ wins the Mens title this year.

Recommendation:

3pts @ 4/1 Nadal to win Australian Open

5ps @ 6/5 Andy Murray NOT to win a set 6-0

bookies.com compares tennis odds between the top UK bookmakers:

Australian Open Mens Winner Betting

Australian Open Mens Will There be a New Winner? Betting

Australian Open Mens Big 4 v The Field Betting

Australian Open Andy Murray Specials

Australian Open Mens Winning Nation Betting

Australian Open Mens Federer to Lose Set Betting

Australian Open Womens Title Betting

Australian Open Womens Williams Sisters v The Field Betting

Plenty of tennis action to get your teeth stuck into this week, including the Madrid Masters and the Zurich Open. In Madrid it looks set to be another tussle between 11/5 Federer and 9/4 Nadal. I’m not tempted to have a bet in the winners market, because Federer’s shock return may compromise his fitness.

Ginepri is an expensive player to follow, and incredibly over-rated. Let’s have a small win bet on Llodra in today’s afternoon showdown. Ginepri hasn’t been able to reproduce his French Open form, which saw him make the last 16. 5/4 is a decent price for Llodra whose Singles game has come on leaps and bounds.

Meanwhile in Zurich, Venus Williams is the 5/2 favourite but I prefer 7/2 Jankovic. The Serbian was an impressive winner of the Kremlin Cup and is in blistering form, but like Federer, she may be fatigued.

William Hill aren’t taking any wagers above £100 in the 3:50 at Newcastle, labeled by the bookies as a ‘bad each way race’.  The favourite, Princess Rainbow, is available at 1/4 to back with Paddy Power. Never mind that it’s a maiden, but with 8 runners, we’ll be looking for other horses to fill in the 2 other places. 33/1 Golondrina was staying on after her previous maiden over 1m1/2f. She acted reasonably over soft ground, and could well nick a place. Small stakes, as the favourite looks rock solid.

Our Melbourne Cup hope, 16/1 Mad Rush, lines up in Saturday’s Caulfield Cup. The Luca Cumani trained winner of the Old Newton Cup will face a stern test against 7-time Group 1 winner Weekend Hussler.

Recommendation:

1pt 5/4 Llodra to beat Ginepri

1pt each way Golondrina (3:20 Newcastle)

Compare the odds for these markets at bookies.com:

Newcastle 3:50

Superbowl Betting

Madrid Masters: Winner Betting

Madrid Masters: Llodra v Ginepri Betting

Zurich Open: Winner Betting

Roger Federer (5/4 Ladbrokes) – The Fedster is back after a crushing defeat at the hands of Nadal in the French open, it doesn’t look like he enjoyed his worst loss since 99 either after he ripped his way through the Gerry Webber Open without dropping a set. Merely a warm up for the chance to turn things around between him and Rafael at Wimbledon. Despite his good form at the French Open, Federer couldn’t handle a greased up Nadal on clay but now as we move into Roger’s element the bookies mark him down as 5/4 . No doubt Federer will have a mind to turn up the heat in this tournament.

Rafael Nadal (9/4 Paddy Power)– Rafa has fallen at the last hurdle these last two years. There’s no question that this Spanish brute is an exceptional player but he just can’t seem to face up to Roger on grass. He has the momentum considering his recent victory in the French Open and Queens Club Championships (including a win over Andy Roddick and Novak Djokovic). The bookies have made a rational choice to put him at 2/1 (general). Given his recently proved dominance over Djokovic on grass it’d be very easy to guess at yet another Federer/Nadal final despite a slight inclination to place my money elsewhere.

Novak Djokovic (7/2 Betfred) – Beat Federer earlier in the year at the Australian open on the new ‘Plexicushion’ surface in the semi-finals which he subsequently went on to win. Since then he has met Nadal twice. Once on clay at the French Open (had he won he would have replaced Nadal as the World No. 2) and once at the Artois championships on grass. Both times he was defeated. Novak’s skill is sufficient to give Rafa a run for his money but his lack of stamina will seriously affect his game if he comes up against any of the other players in the top 4. Betfair are offering reasonable value at 4.4/1.

Andy Roddick (43/1 Betfair) – Andy is fourth favourite to win the tournament but its clear he trails by some distant from the top 3 when the bookies have him at 25/1 (Blue Sq and Ladbrokes) Centrebet have even gone as far as 40/1. However Roddick has shown considerable promise this year after a win over Nadal in the Dubai Tennis Championships in the Quarter Finals and Djokovic in the Semi-Finals. He also defeated Federer at the 2008 Miami Masters. He was forced to pull out of the French open due to a shoulder injury but made it to the semi finals of the Queens championship where Nadal defeated him. I think Roddick has a reasonable chance of success in this tournament though it’s hard to see him making past the top three players in the same tournament.

Andy Murray (33/1 Bluesq) – Betfair have got Britain’s favourite at 49/1…. Still, the general opinion of the bookies is that he’s 5^th favourite to win, that’s enough to raise the hopes of those who so faithfully supported the futile Tim Henman campaign all those years. Has Britain’s time come again?

Click here for the rest of the Wimbledon betting markets.

Maria Sharapova (9/4 Coral) – She’s having a pretty sunny year after breaking Justine Henin’s 32 match winning streak and going on to win the Australian Open without dropping a set. She won the Singles title at the Qatar Total Open. Her first loss of the year was to Svetlana Kuznetsova in the semifinals of the Pacific Life Open. So it comes as no surprise that she’s favoured by the bookies at 9/4 (general). There are some, however, who inquire after Maria’s shoulder after a spot of bother at the DFS Classic in Birmingham. Also take into consideration the rocky ride she took us on at the French Open.

Serena Williams (5/2 Stanjames) – Knocked out of the Australian Open by Jankovic at the quarter-finals (her fourth consecutive loss in the quarter finals of a Grand slam singles tournament). She and her Sister were then knocked out of the doubles event in the quarter-finals. After the Australian Open she cancelled her next four tournaments. A rocky start to 2008 for Serena, so it comes as a surprise that she is seeded as no.2 to win this tournament. Ladbrokes and Coral have her at 3/1 while Betfair is on 4.3/1. I find it hard to believe that she’s a contender for the final this year.

Ana Ivanovic (5/1 Totesport) – Ana has shown spectactular performance this year making both grand slam finals and winning the French Open. Now ranked No.1 in the world (partly due to Henin’s retirement) I reckon she’s good value at 5/1 general. Although it would be interesting to see her up against Dementieva (ranked 10^th favourite) at Wimbledon as she’s already lost to her twice this year.

Venus Williams (9/2 William Hill) – 9/2 at Bet365 and BlueSq and 6/1 at Betfair means there’s a lot more contesting between the top few players for the favourite spot than in the men’s event. It would be unwise to disregard anyone in the top four until you’ve really knuckled down to your research. Venus squeezed in a win over Maria Sharapova early on in the year at the Hong Kong Exhibition Tournament but yielded a win to Ivanovic in the Australian Open. It’s a tricky call especially as the bookies rate her 4^th favourite.

Jelena Jankovic (14/1 Ladbrokes) – Its hard to see Jelena come through for Wimbledon especially as she doesn’t have any previous Singles Grand slams under her belt. Her talents lie elsewhere on the clay court or in the doubles event. Betfair rates Jankovic for an unoptimistic 16.5/1 a large margin from the top four seeded. Ladbrokes have her at 14/1.

For further information on the Wimbledon betting markets click here.