Cast your minds back to November 10th, when we first wrote about the X Factor betting. When Diana was the 11/10 favourite, when Alexandra was supported into 10/3 and more importantly, when we tipped JLS.
JLS have been described as the best band the show has ever seen, and have been cut once more into 7/1. The boy band from London do offer some each way value, and also a decent trading opportunity on Betfair over the next two weeks or so.
Recommendation:
2pts 7/1 JLS Outright Winners
My word have things changed! Diana was axed last weekend following a string of poor performances, meaning that Alexandra is the hot favourite to win. Let’s take a look at the remaining 3 contestants to see if there’s any value still to be found:
8/13 ALEXANDRA BURKE
Alexandra has been described as the most talented contestant for weeks now, and Diana’s eviction has seen her go odds-on from evens before last Saturday’s show. In the straight forecast market, favourite backers may like totesport’s 15/8 on 1st Alexandra - 2nd JLS. Bet365 also offer 2/7 that she beats Eoghan in a match bet - ‘free money’ I hear you say. She should take all the beating, and Simon Cowell has backed her to win. If she got turned over it wouldn’t be all that surprising, so i think she is too short to back. Performs with Westlife.
7/2 JLS
Saturday night made for some sensational in-running betting on Betfair. After the contestants had sung their 2 songs, Diana was the new 6/4 favourite to be evicted, even though JLS were still the 8/1 outsiders in the outright market. Layers clearly had their reasons, but to me it was a no-brainer. JLS were 1.70 on Betfair to be evicted before Diana had another shocker. I haven’t traded out my strong JLS position yet and I don’t intend to, in fact I am disappointed not to have taken the 10/1 that was readily available before Saturday’s show.
Aside from me, there have been other JLS supporters who have been backing them with their wallets and this week’s 9/2 and 4/1 has gone. I am particularly re-assured that they have displaced the blasted Eoghan as second favourites and they could prove popular on the night given that they’ll perform with Rihanna.
9/2 EOGHAN QUIGG
Those unfamiliar to the show should note that his first name is pronounced ‘Owen’. They should also note that he is dreadful. He is set to sing with Boyzone and has been very weak in the betting, cut to 11/10 in the next eviction market. I am tempted by those odds, because my hatred of him means that he’s clearly an odds-on shot. As I’m not ‘greening out’ of the JLS position, I won’t increase my liability by backing Eoghan to be evicted. I must be a rational punter and not bet with my heart!
Eoghan’s voice was overwhelmed by the backing singers on Saturday, and he just doesn’t do it for me. I cannot rely on his Irish support and won’t be indulging in Boylesports’ specials. They Irish firm make him 6/2 to record a duet with Diana in 2009, 16/1 to join an Abba tribute band or 2/1 to shave his head.
SkyBet have some X Factor specials, which offer typically poor value. You can get 33/1 that a finalist falls over on stage this weekend, or 5/1 that the winner is dropped by Sony BMG by the end of 2009. I can’t find any stunning bets for this weekend’s show, as all the contestants are pretty skinny prices by this stage.
X Factor Winning Manager Betting
X Factor Straight Forecast Betting
X Factor Next Eviction Betting
