Bookies Blog

It’s coming to the end of February and everybody seems to be getting a little restless. As usual Cheltenham fever is spreading across the racing world and this year there are two horses dominating the Cheltenham headlines.

Paul Nicholls’ yard is home to both Kaoto Star and Denman. The horses both share the price of 5/4 at most bookmakers and so far neither horse has shown a hint of weakness in their run up to Cheltenham.

Kaoto Star was favourite ahead of Denman until in October Denman produced a stunning performance, destroying the rest of the field in the Hennessy Gold Cup. Since then Kaoto Star has also been in tremendous form, winning races such as the Betfair Chase and most recently the Commercial First Ascot Chase with incredible ease.

In fact there is so little to distinguish between the two, and they both so superior to all other entries that both totesport and betfair are offering markets which exclude them. There is some great value to be had in these markets. Betfair have priced Mossbank as a 15/2 shot to win without Kaoto Star or Denman in contention; that makes Mossbank joint second favourite behind Exotic Dancer.

Totesport meanwhile have not just left Kaoto Star and Denman out of the race in their Market, but they have also excluded Exotic Dancer. One might expect Mossbank and Neptune Collognes to share prices of around 3/1 or 9/2. Indeed, they have priced Neptune Collognes at 5/2 but Mossbank meanwhile can be backed at a whopping 10/1. There are likely to be around 10 runners in this race and if you back it each way you’ll get a return if Mossbank comes in the top six, it is absolutely cracking value.

After receiving a sound drubbing off league rivals Manchester United on Saturday Arsenal will be looking to use the home advantage they have at the Emirates tonight to take them to the San Siro with an aggregate lead.

The bookies believe that this is a definite possibility with Arsenal 11/10 favourites to win the game. Milan had a very shaky start to the season, but in the past few months have shown better form, although just four goals in their last five league games suggest that they still may have some way to go in catching fierce rivals Inter, who are currently over 20 points ahead of Milan at the top of Serie A. However, Milan have been given just a half goal advantage at 1.84 on Betfair in the Asian Handicap and so the bookies certainly believe that Arsenal’s dominance won’t be too great.

AC’s inability to score is also shown in the first goalscorer markets, most bookmakers have shorter odds for there to be no goalscorer than for an AC Milan player to score first. Meanwhile, Adebayor is currently on magnificent form having scored ten goals in his last eight games and is tipped at 15/2 to score first and is just 7/4 to score at any time in the game.

However, no matter how much the bookies favour Arsenal, AC have a history of dominance in the Champions league and as Liverpool have proved so many times, league form does not necessarily dictate how things are going to go in Europe.

After a classic FA Cup weekend we are left with just four top flight clubs in contention for the FA Cup. Chelsea, after drawing giant killers Barnsley are now favourites to win the Cup, at a best price of 11/8.

Ladbrokes spokesman Nick Weinberg, said this “Chelsea have secured a relatively easier tie and, as a result, have just edged ahead in the betting.” Chelsea have definitely drawn one of the easier sides in the competition and are almost certain to reach the semi finals.

Manchester United, meanwhile, look like they are going to have a tougher time reaching the semis. Pompey was probably the toughest draw after Chelsea and Sir Alex faces a serious challenge. The betfair market has represented this, they are now 2.42 on Betfair (just under 6/4), and one would have expected their odds to have shortened far more after a home draw against any other side in the competition. Portsmouth, however are well known for their impressive away form and United’s odds are now actually a little longer than they were this time yesterday.

Mddlesborough will be looking to finish off Sheffield easily at the Riverside and should also cause Cardiff problems when they also meet at the Riverside in March. So at odds of 11/1 with Stan James they may well be a worthwhile each way punt.

The Bristol Rovers vs West Brom game is the only game which will definitely produce a non Premier League semi finalist. West Brom are obvious favourites, and are on offer at Evens, but Rovers have proven stubborn on their somewhat unkempt home turf this season and have seen off the likes of Fulham and Southampton so don’t write off another upset just yet.

The cup so far has produced many twists and turns and this draw has the potential to produce many more.

Why not have a look at the FA Cup Betting Index or the FA Cup Winners betting odds.

Betting on the Oscars is dominated by odds on favourites, yet every year the favourites in the betting do not always come up trumps, so with a bit of astute analysis one can always seek out some value.

It is highly unlikely for a single film to win every category, the voters get to vote on each category and therefore will be disinclined to give all their votes to one film and hence many more votes might go to some second favourites than expected.

One has to concede that it will be extremely difficult for voters not to select Daniel Day-Lewis, Bet 365 are so certain of such an outcome that they are going 1/25 on such an outcome. Victor Chandler meanwhile are going 1/9 on Day-Lewis and if you like your odds on betting then you may see value in such a punt.

Cate Blanchett took best Actress last year and is therefore going to have difficulty picking up awards again this year. She is 50/1 (VC Bet) to take best actress as you might expect but as favourite for supporting actress she paves the way for some cracking valu on the outsiders in this market. So Amy Ryan and Ruby Dee at 23/10 (B365) and 4/1 (Betfair) respectively may well be in with a far better chance of picking up a gong than the bookies have predicted.

Finally, No Country for Old Men is looking to take best picture at odds of 1/3 from most bookmakers as well as best director with the Coen Brothers currently being priced at ¼ across the board. So, despite probably being the best adapted screenplay
No Country for Old men may well have had their fair share of Oscars by this point and voters may feel inclined to give the award to either 11/4 There Will be Blood or 7/2 Diving Bell and the Butterfly.

Check out the odds on Best Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Adapted Screenplay or the Oscars Betting Index.