Bookies Blog

With Derby already in preparation for next years Championship campaign there are just two other unfortunate teams who will be joining them in the Championship next season. Which teams these will be is anybody’s guess, especially since many of the contenders have begun to show some terrific form recently.

Fulham who many thought were as likely to survive as Derby have produced some stunning results of late and are just three points away from safety. Still priced at 1/6 odds on though I am not sure they are the safest of bets at that price as a win against Birmingham next week could see them in an extremely promising position.

Birmingham meanwhile are on rather poor form and were extremely fortunate that Liverpool brought their first team players on so late in the game at the weekend to give them a point. They have a tough game against an in form Fulham coming up and will need to beat Blackburn after that to stay up. In my opinion I don’t think that they are likely to do this and an evens bet on them going down looks good value in my opinion.

Reading are guaranteed at least one win in their next two games as they play Derby on the last game of the season. However, with their appalling goal difference one might wonder if it is enough to keep them safe and Steve Coppell will certainly want to take some points from the game against Tottenham at the weekend. Bolton are not as lucky as Reading, with the same number of points they have very tough games against Sunderland and Chelsea and could easily lose to both, leaving them in deep trouble if Fulham and Reading manage to win their next few games. It seems to me that Bolton at 7/4 is certainly a fair punt but I wouldn’t want to touch reading at 12/5.

Boro and Wigan meanwhile with 36 and 37 points each respectively will secretly be thinking that they have done enough to stay up and as they are both over 40/1 to go down with most bookmakers it looks as if the bookies agree. Still, a couple more points in the last few games for them wouldn’t hurt and they’re not foolish enough to stop trying just yet.

Check the odds on all the Premier League Markets here

With just a week left until the London Mayoral elections, things are looking pretty tight. Ken Livingstone has upped the pressure on Boris Johnson and they are almost equal in the polls now. Victor Chandler obviously don’t fancy Ken to retain his role as Mayor and have him marked up at 13/8 which looks a tempting price as he is at a very similar price on Betfair.

Boris, it seems, has let things slip a bit and he has been pushed out to 4/7 from 4/9 by most bookmakers. It does seem that his campaign has lost momentum recently and it will be interesting to see if his price continues to slip throughout this week.

The betting also suggests that Brian Paddick has very little chance of success, he stands at 150/1 on betfair and 100/1 with the more generous bookmakers. So, if you’re a Liberal Democrat I wouldn’t get your hopes up too high about getting Brian in power.

Elsewhere in the world of politics, Barrack Obama looks set to secure himself the democratic candidacy and is currently top priced 2/9 to be taking on Mc Cain come November. However, those of you who still have faith in Hilary Clinton can back her at 7/2 to represent the democrats. It is the Democrats who are odds on favourites to win the election at 11/20 so a bet on Obama at evens to become the next President of the United States might not be too foolish a bet.

Why not check out the rest of the political betting markets here.

We have now seen the first weekend of the IPL and if the games continue to be as exciting as the first five have been then it looks as if the tournament is here to stay. So far we have watched a whopping 1386 runs and 57 wickets in just 188 overs. You could easily fit 188 overs into two days of test cricket and end up watching about a fifth of the runs already scored in the IPL. It doesn’t take much convincing to realise that test cricket and to an even greater extent one day cricket may well have had their moment and that this recent evolution of cricket may well leave them in the history books.

However, what is really important about the IPL is getting a bet on and winning some money. With matches being played everyday for the next month, I’m not sure its going to be too difficult finding a bit of action. The quick pace of Twenty20 is going to create some frantic in match betting and if you don’t have the speediest of live feeds at your fingertips you may well find yourself in trouble as just a single ball at Twenty20 can really turn a game either way.

The odds have certainly been mixed up a bit since last Friday and Kolkata are now 7/2 favourites to win the tournament after two convincing wins. Deccan Chargers have been pushed out to 11/2 with skybet after their late defeat to the Knight Riders but remain 7/2 favourites in a very liquid betfair market so those of you who enjoy arbing events may want to get involved in this one. Jaipur, who were originally the 12/1 outsiders for the title are now out to 16/1 after losing by nine wickets to the Delhi Daredevils.

The Chennai Superkings have also been shortened up to 4/1 after beating the Kings XI by 33 runs on Saturday. The Deccan Chargers are seen as favourites over the Delhi Daredevils in Tuesday’s game and so if they get a result then you can expect them to shorten up a bit in the title odds.

Why not check out all the IPL markets here.

This weekend, the big clash comes between Arsenal and United, where Arsenal desperately need all three points if they are going to take anything from the 2007/08 season. This, however, seems highly unlikely; Arsenal are heavily out of form and a trip up to Old Trafford will be extremely tough on all the Arsenal players. The players will be greatly lacking in confidence and it would be a remarkable display of maturity if they were to produce a result against United, especially as the Red Devils are on such tremendous form. Other than a slightly damaged defence, United will be extremely confident and you can see them dominating an exhausted and deflated Arsenal. The bookies, however, seem to share this opinion putting Arsenal at 4/1 outsiders with United at 10/11 to win the game.

It seems that if United do beat Arsenal then they should have the title wrapped up no matter how Chelsea perform in the rest of their games this season, United are already 2/7 to win the league and you can just expect that price to shorten further if United beat Arsenal, Chelsea have their work cut out already and are relying on a United slip up. Chelsea are looking very consistent and with the exception of their own clash with United, they should win the rest of their games with ease.

At the other end of the table it seems that Fulham are now destined to join Derby in the Championship next season. It seems also that Bolton now have a very slim chance of escaping the drop, although the recent arrests of Birmingham’s directors may have an adverse effect on their struggle for survival. Birmingham and Bolton both have tough games against Everton and West Ham respectively although 9/4 for a West Ham win against Bolton does seem to hold some value.

Reading aren’t quite safe just yet but with an easy game against Fulham this weekend they should be looking to push far enough clear of the relegation zone on Saturday to avoid the drop this season. Elsewhere, Newcastle’s current burst of good form should make a tough game for Portsmouth who are really piling the pressure onto Everton for fifth place. It is doubtless that the Premiership games this weekend are going to really shape how the premiership finally turns out. It could, if certain results occur, determine exactly who wins the Premiership and also which teams go down.

In terms of getting English teams through, it looks as if we have got two in the bag already. Uniteds two away goals with a clean sheet in Rome looks to have put them through and are now as low as 1/66 to go through. And as much as Arsenal and Liverpool love to draw at present, one of them are going to have to go through, although Liverpool seem to have the edge at 4/6 to go through with most bookies.

Chelsea, however, had their work cut out in Turkey. Last Tuesday during half time at the Emirates, due to there being no possibility of a half time pint thanks to ridiculous UEFA ruling, I took to watching the highlights of the Chelsea game on the big screen. It was no surprise to me that Chelsea had secured a comfortable away goal and I assumed they would snatch another one or two in the second half and confirm their spot in the semis. On leaving the Emirates, the revelation that Chelsea had given the game away was almost as shocking to me as Pieter Vink’s decision not to award Hleb that penalty. Let’s just hope that tomorrow evening, Arsenal get that penalty and Chelsea manage to turn things around at the Bridge. Unfortunately for me the odds predict the latter to be a little more likely than the former with Chelsea 1/3 to beat Fernerbache whilst Arsenal stand at 9/4 to win at Anfield.

United’s chance’s meanwhile look fairly solid; they have had an extremely successful run of results against Roma this season and despite the glitch on Tyneside yesterday there seems no reason to suggest that they will not produce the goods against Roma tomorrow. In fact Ronaldo is on such good form, the bookies have him marked up at 4/6 to score (the same price you’d get for a United win). In my opinion, it’s not great value as United are likely to sit very firmly with ten men behind the ball, especially as the Red Devil’s defence has received a bit of end of season bruising lately. Barcelona meanwhile have picked up their away goal and look set to make the semis with ease and are odds on to take the game at the Nou Camp.

In terms of having a punt, I’ll probably be staying well clear. There is far too much odds on betting for my liking and when bookies price a player up at odds on to score you know their making life difficult for you. I think the value is in the Arsenal game and 9/4 for an Arsenal win does seem fair, although I can’t deny a hint of bias in that selection.

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I’ll start off stating the bleedingly obvious. In the National you need a horse that 1) jumps well and 2) stays the full four and half miles. It also helps if your horse likes the prevailing good to soft ground and has experience over the Aintree fences – this really is a race where horses for courses is a relevant expression.

If you’re going to have a bet then make sure you take the best price on the horse you want to back – go to Bookies.com - http://www.bookies.com/betting-odds/horse-racing/uk-saturday/aintree/4-15 - and click on the bold odds next to the horse you fancy to have a bet.

So let’s look at the runners and odds:

Cloudy Lane 11-2

Cloudy Lane looks set to start as the shortest price National favourite in more than a decade and on form you can see why. If you allotted the weights for the race today (rather than January) then Cloudy Lane would carry 20 pounds more. Backed from 33-1 when the weights came out down to 11-2 now and likely to start even shorter, he is clearly the most likely winner. However I am concerned that he may not stay the trip, plus eight years olds have a poor record in the race (only won twice in last 20 years). If you do have a bet I think he’s better value as a win only wager than each way.

Comply Or Die 11-1

Well handicapped and has proven stamina, having won the Eider Chase at Newcastle (over 4 miles one furlong) in February. Has Timmy Murphy in the saddle, which is a big plus but my concern is that he has no form around Aintree. At the odds on offer he’s no great value.

Slim Pickings 12-1

Finished third last year and has been aimed at this race all year. Carrying quite a lot of weight and the odds look about right. Although he jumped well last year he has been sketchy at his fences in other races and I can find others at bigger prices who I prefer.

Simon 12-1

Fell six from home last year when looking like a serious contender and is one of the horses with the best ‘story’, which the National winner always seems to have (owner Mercy Rimmell’s husband trained four National winners). Definitely one for the shortlist but the bookies are not giving much away.

Chelsea Harbour 16-1

Stays forever but would be much better on heavy ground. Slightly dodgy jumper and I expect will find several a little bit faster.

Butler’s Cabin 16-1

Good jumper, stays well and has Tony McCoy on board. All obvious credentials but his form looks a bit suspect and his prep race was unimpressive. Hard to get too excited about at the odds.

Bewleys Berry 16-1

Second in the Becher Chase in November and going well last year when falling at Becher’s Brook on the second circuit. However he carries five pounds more this year and that looks a tough burden on what he has achieved. A potential winner but more likely fully in the grip of the handicapper.

Mr. Pointment 20-1

Won the Becher Chase over these fences in November and was right at the head of the betting when the weights were published. Since then ran an absolute shocker at Doncaster and finished distressed after breaking a blood vessel. Trainer Paul Nicholls says he is fine now but it usually takes a while to come back from that sort of problem and with a big weight to carry over a long trip it is easy to swerve Mr Pointment. Owned by a hairdresser.

King Johns Castle 20-1

Bit of a dodgepot and all his best racing has been at under 3 miles. Prefers softer ground too. Paul Carberry is a decent jockey but he looks more like a 50-1 shot.

Snowy Morning 25-1

One of the form horses in the race and started second favourite in the Hennessy before falling early on. Was well fancied when the weights came out and has been on the drift ever since. On the form he showed in the Royal and Sun Alliance Chase last year, when he finished second to Denman, he should be a good thing but there are big question marks about whether he has trained on from that. At the odds on offer I think he has a big chance but you have to consider that the odds reflect his poor recent form and dubious jumping. A definite value bet but win only is the best option.

Point Barrow 25-1

Proven stayer, jumps well and trained for this race. Started as 8-1 co-favourite last year and fell at the first. This year he carries one pound less and although his form this season has been a little below par, it’s hard to see why he’s a 25-1 chance. The each way bet of the race.

McKelvy 25-1

Second last year and now eight pounds higher. Broke down after last year’s National and it’s hard to have much confidence. Others preferred.

Hedgehunter 25-1

Former winner but too old and carrying too much weight, in my opinion. Could place but hard to see him winning and the odds are not generous.

Philson Run 25-1

Stays forever and will trot round and stay past beaten horses. Booked for sixth or seventh, I’d guess. Only realistic chance is if it pours with rain all day, at which point could be an each way bet.

Turko 28-1

Might not stay, no experience in big handicaps and the stats say that at six he has no chance (last six year old winner was in 1916). Hard to get excited by Turko.

Mon Mome 28-1

A horse for the stats fans on his second in the Welsh National and his relatively easy prep for the race. Recent form is not impressive but definitely a likeable type and could be a decent value each way selection.

D’Argent 33-1

Jumps well and stays but will need to run the race of his life to win this. Stable is confident and the money is down so not one to dismiss but it will take a mega performance for D’Argent to win.

Dun Doire 33-1

Just snuck into the race as bottom weight and trained by notable shrewdie Tony Martin. Showed very little in last year’s race when pulled up four out and will have to have progressed a huge amount to make a mark this year.

L’Ami 33-1

Ran well for about three quarters of the race last year and then ran out of steam. Carries nine pounds less this year but I think the main target this year was Cheltenham. A big surprise if he wins.

Vodka Bleu 40-1

Doubtful stayer and carrying plenty of weight. One for the alcoholics.

Kelami 50-1

Didn’t seem to enjoy the Grand National last year and hard to see why he should have a change of heart this time around.

Black Apalachi 50-1

Jumps well but doubts how well he stays. May lack a bit of speed and easily passed over.

Knowhere 66-1

In great form but fell at the Canal Turn last year and doesn’t look like a National horse to me. Carrying plenty of weight and not one I can get excited by.

Idle Talk 66-1

Not the stable’s main chance and all the evidence to date suggests he is a non stayer. Miracle if he suddenly proves otherwise.

Fundamentalist 66-1

Plenty of weight but tends to do all his winning over distances about one and a half miles shorter. That tends to be a problem in the Grand National.

Madison Du Berlais 66-1

Out of form, dubious stayer and not that good a jumper. No thanks.

Joaaci 66-1

Quite an interesting outsider and the sort of horse that could spring a massive shock. Definite stayer and trained by David Pipe are the positives; not much good at jumping is the obvious negative. Not one to totally write off.

Baily Breeze 66-1

Dubious stayer and uninspiring form.

Ardaghey 100-1

No recent form that would suggest he can be a contender.

Iron Man 100-1

Has consistent Aintree form – every time he runs here, he falls. Perhaps a good clue why he is 100-1.

No Full 100-1

Carrying plenty of weight, no recent form, may not stay and potentially not recovered from an injury. Does that sound like a good bet to you?

Bob Hall 100-1

Badly handicapped, doesn’t appear to like jumping very much, prefers a much shorter trip and unlikely to enjoy his day out very much. Who’d be a horse?

Cornish Sett 100-1

Reasonable pedigree and has a good amateur rider on board. Recent form is lousy but of the 100-1 shots he is the one least likely to be on the way to the Pedigree Chum factory at the end of the season.

Naughton Brook 100-1

Didn’t seem to stay the full trip last year but if you want to back one that will bowl along in front for the first circuit and then drop away then this is the one for you.

Milan Deux Mille 100-1

Fifth in the Topham as a five year old so he shows he can jump these fences but very unlikely to stay and six year olds have an appalling record in the National. Easy to swerve.

Backbeat 100-1

Almost certain to not stay the trip. Form of Sandown win in January gives him a very, very, very outside chance but only really a horse for the eternal optimist.

Hi Cloy 150-1

Lots of weight and dubious stamina so hard to fancy. A good quality horse but not sure why he’s been entered for the National.

Tumbling Dice 150-1

Out of form and may not stay. Miracle if this one wins.

Nadover 150-1

Recent form is poor and is a sketchy jumper. Probably won’t stay either. All in all, a genuine 150-1 shot.

Contraband 500-1

Owner appears to be running this in order to get free entry into the racecourse and a good place in the grandstand. If it started at 4.15pm on Friday it probably still wouldn’t win the race.

Champions League Quarter Final-1^st Leg

All four Premiership sides still remain at the Quarter Final stages of the Champions League. In fact, bookies are now going just 4/11 that the eventual winner will be an English side.

Manchester United have drawn Roma, who I am sure will not be too happy about the draw given United’s success against them in this years group stages. The bookies have United marked up at 13/8, which seems to be a fair price as it exceeds what is currently available on Betfair. However, the game is taking place in Rome and one might expect the Italians to put ten men behind the ball in this first leg and attempt to snatch a cheeky away goal at Old Trafford to put them through. As you might expect, given his current form, Ronaldo is favourite at 13/2 to score first although the exact same price can be taken for there to be no goal scorer.

The only tie to not involve an English team is between Barcelona and Schalke. Barca are generously priced at 5/4 with Hills to win the game whilst Schalke are at a very modest top price 13/5 given that they are coming up against Spanish giants Barcelona. With Barca favourites at 3/1 to win the competition in comparison to Schalke’s 60/1 rating, 5/4 may seem generous, but Barca are not such formidable a force away from home as they are at the Nou Camp and it may be a bet worth leaving well alone.

Arsenal take on Liverpool on Wednesday evening at the Emirates Stadium and realistically, the Champions League is the only chance for either of them to gain any Silverware this season. Arsenal will have regained confidence after a spectacular comeback against Bolton at the weekend but will also have to realise that they will have to pace themselves, as they will face Liverpool two more times in the next two weeks as well as having to play Man U after their three games against Liverpool. Liverpool are also on top form at present, excluding the Man U game, they have been on a long winning streak and are well known for their Prowess in Europe. Arsenal, however, have the home advantage and are 5/4 best price favourites to win the game.

The final quarter final is between Fenerbache and Chelsea and despite being away from home Chelsea are, as you might expect, are evens favourites to win the game. Avram Grant has proven himself to be a decent manager and after a subdued game at the weekend you can expect the Blues to come out far stronger this Wednesday evening. They will have put the Borough game on the backburner and will be looking to take a few away goals back to Stamford Bridge with them. Drogba is 5/1 to score first and you can back Chelsea to win 3-0 at 25/1 with Ladbrokes.

To see our Champions League Markets follow this link.