Bookies Blog

Once again Chelsea have laid off a superb manager in pursuit of an even better one. Whether or not Avram Grant should have been fired is neither here nor there, although it really does make you wonder why anyone would ever support Chelsea. What is important, however, is ascertaining which manager will fill the dreaded position and what price to back them at.

The back page of the Racing post this morning reported how Mancini had become clear favourite for the position after finally announcing his official departure from Inter Milan. However, this seems to have been a rash public movement and does not take into account the fact that Mancini had pretty much jumped the San Siro ship well before our friend Grant got the boot.

So despite being backed into 5/4 yesterday morning he can now be backed a far more reasonable 5/2 with Centrebet. It’s a similar price to the one currently chalked up on Betfair at present, and if Betfair’s anything to go by then 5/2 isn’t particularly good value, let alone the measly 6/4 currently offered by Totesport and Victor Chandler.

However, rather than looking at what is bad value, it seems to me to be far more productive to look at what is good value. At a first glance, it looks as if Ancelotti has shortened up greatly today and he is priced up at around 9/1. In fact, the only bookie with the old price left is Ladbrokes who have him at a very large 14/1. He is currently just below 10/1 on betfair and therefore looks pretty solid value. One, however, should be wary, Ladbrokes often have extremely good inside information and may know something the other bookmakers do not. Still, if you are going to have a punt then it seems to me this is the one you should have.

In markets like this it is always important to follow the clever money, although following Mancini yesterday may not have been too wise, the occasional bit of research helps a bit as well. So, make sure you keep watching which managers are being pushed out and which ones are shortening. Click here to see how the prices are moving now.

As one may expect, Rafael Nadal is odds on favourite to win the tournament and with his dominance on clay it is difficult to see past him. However, despite his recent lack of form, world number one Roger Federer made his way into the second round with great ease and has been shortened to 11/4 for the tournament. It looks, therefore, as if the bookies are predicting a repeat of last years epic final.

The only other player the bookies feel has any chance of winning the tournament is Djokovic who can be backed at 15/2, this however does not seem to offer any particular value as he will have to surpass Nadal to reach the final and this therefore destroys any potential each way bets.

If you are looking for some each way value you are far better off looking for players who will have to take on the Federer , who is weaker than Nadal, on course to the final. I therefore believe that there is good value in either Davydenko or Ferrer, they are available at 25/1 and 40/1 respectively and offer good each way value.

In the Ladies tournament the betting is much more open, Serena Williams is 3/1 favourite to win whilst Jankovic and Sharapova aren’t too far away at 5/1 and 6/1 respectively. Those prices both offer fairly decent value and are the two players I feel are worth backing, they won’t meet each other prior to the final and so I believe a small bet on each makes most sense. Elsewhere there is little value as the ladies tournament is far more open than the mens.

Check out the rest of the betting markets on the French Open here.

It is the first all English Champions League Final, although for the last few years it has seemed that it was just a matter of time before the inevitable occurred. The Premier League has dominated Europe this year and it looks as if they are set to continue the trend.

United of course are favourites to win the game, they have consistently outplayed Chelsea throughout the season and have with the occasional exception of Arsenal looked by far and away the best team in England. Their European campaign has been no different and it is undeniable that the team that deserves the Champions League this season is United as they have quite obviously been the best team in Europe.

However, we all know that this is not the way the world works and United are going to have to show one last display of brilliance if they are going to take both the Champions League as well as the Premier League title this season. Chelsea are not going to go into the game lying down and if both Drogba and Terry return from injury then it really will be game on.

United are 6/4 to win in the 90 minutes and Chelsea are 9/4 to win the game in the same time. Ronaldo is top priced 15/8 to score in the game and can be backed at 11/2 to score first. It’s not a bad price considering he has scored 41 goals so far this season and he has often been seen at odds on to score so 15/8 doesn’t seem too unfair a price.

The competition’s Golden Boot seems likely to be added to Ronaldo’s currently bulging trophy cabinet. He has scored one more goal than Drogba this season in the Champions League and may be looking to extend that lead in the final. There are questions being asked about Drogba’s fitness as well as his allegiances to his club, so if Drogba does not play on Wednesday then Ronaldo will claim the trophy without having to do any further scoring in the final. He is 1/3 with Corals to win the Boot, which again appears to hold value as the best Betfair can currently muster is 1/4.

I, like most people, can’t see far past Man U, they are still a tight team and, as a club, will be completely focused on the game next Wednesday. I don’t get the same impression from the Chelsea camp, it seems that their players are currently more interested either on the transfer market or on booking their holidays to Malaga. I just need to decide whether to back them at 5/4 to win in 90 minutes or whether to back them at 4/5 to win the cup.

Click here now to view all the betting markets on this years Champions League Final.

On Wednesday evening Old Trafford will host the 2008 UEFA Cup final between Zenit St Petersburg and Rangers Football Club. The two clubs couldn’t be further apart geographically and the trip from Glasgow to Manchester will surely take far less of a toll on Walter Smith’s men than it will on Zenit who will have had to fly almost four hours to Manchester and may have difficulty acclimatising to the humid weather.

Zenit, however, are still heavy favourites to win the game at 13/10 top price from William Hill. Zenit are obviously concentrating solely on winning this competition, they have not concentrated on their domestic league and are therefore third from bottom in their league.

Rangers are currently battling with Celtic to win the Scottish Premier Division and have are playing Queen of the South in the final of the Scottish Cup. They have already won the league cup and are in a position where they could win all four possible pieces of silverware. However, with so much for them to concentrate on, the 5/2 odds on them winning are indicative of how difficult a game this will be for Rangers.

The UEFA Cup Golden Boot seems looks to be shared between Luca Toni and Pavel Pogrebnyak, who have both scored 10 goals in the competition, although a yellow card in Pogrebnyak’s semi final has seem him disqualified from the final.

Click here to check out all the UEFA cup betting markets.