Bookies Blog

Anticipation is mounting as we approach next weekend’s Grand Prix at Silvestone and the possibility of a home grown champion. The three Brits attending (Hamilton, Button and Coulthard) will be heavily supported by a record crowd of 240,000 over the race weekend. Hamilton is looking comfortable with the incredible turnout saying “It gives an extra boost to your confidence to know you’re getting more support, and it seems to make you perform better. Last year I found the support was immense and made the weekend a lot easier to get through.”

Hamilton will be looking to improve on his fourth place position after incurring penalties in Canada and France. Lewis finished third last year at Silverstone in his first British Grand Prix clocking up some much needed experience. Hamilton is expected to have a reasonable position after the qualifying round. His 12/5 at Betinternet shows the bookies feel his consistency as a driver will make up for his faults on etiquette.

Jenson Button is also looking forward to racing at Silverstone despite only a 1.21.445 best lap time (9^th). Jenson is at 400/1 at Boylesports.

Massa feels Mclaren will put up a greater challenge for his Ferarri team this week at the faster, more flowing, British track. “At Magny-Cours, we didn’t see the real performance from McLaren in the race as they were always blocked in traffic, but for sure, they can be a lot more competitive here.” However Massa will be looking to retain his lead position after a win at Magny-Cours. He is 3/1 to win at Ladbrokes.

Raikkonen is favourite to win this year at 3/2 on Bet1128 and 1.6/1 on Betfair. However, with the top four places so closely contended its hard to find a good value bet on the winner, I’d say Kubica is potentially a good each way bet at 14/1 on William Hill and Bet365.

For more Formula One betting markets click here.

The love square, Stuart looks to have diminished any chance of a Jennifer/Dale relationship. The general public opinion was to approve of such a pairing but Jennifer made her stance clear when she said “Dale obviously has a bit of an infatuation going on, which is very sweet, but it’s never affected our friendship. We’re still good friends.”

Sylvia probably didn’t help matters when she expressed her feelings for Dale to Jennifer. As a result Stuart’s odds have drifted to 33/1 at Bluesq and 888sport and Sylvia is up for eviction tonight and as a result she’s 250/1. The bookies obviously feel she’s outstayed her welcome.

Still leading the winner’s board is Kathreya at 11/10 (general) and 6/5 her best price on Bluesq. In fact the pecking order in the top four seems to have remained the same over the past few weeks. But Dale has drifted to 25/1, next to Mario who I’m surprised to see is still around, most likely because of a certain amount of animosity expressed towards other house mates. Tonight’s eviction sees Sylvia at 1/33 against Mohammed’s 15/1.

Speculation as to the last four housemates shows Michael dropped to 10^th place at 2.5/1 on betfair and Rex displays some apparent popularity in 4^th with 1.24/1. Why not try some good value at 13/1 with Dennis Rodman….?

For more Big Brother betting markets click here.

Yet again, the bookies payout as 20 wins for the favourites out of 30 matches results in Spain meeting Germany in the final on Sunday. Graham Sharpe from William Hill is quoted saying “It was the worst possible final we could imagine”. Spain finished off Russia last night with a convincing 3-0 at full time. They provided what seemed an easy victory confident in their superior statistics.

Such a decisive win has brought their odds down to 5/4 at Bluesq, Coral and Paddypower for The Final. In the mean time Germany’s odds have only slightly shortened from 5/2 (general) to 2/1 (Centrebet).

Germany and Spain are definitely two of the heaviest backed teams in the tournament, yet the bookies feel Germany can provide the best way out. After last night’s match, though, the Germans are going to have to take it up a notch in order to compete convincingly at Spain’s standard of play.

Half Time/Full Time – a Spain/Spain scenario here is favourite at 11/4 from Paddypower and 33/10 at Betchronicle, who seem to be offering the majority of best value odds at this tournament. However Draw/Spain catches my eye as good value at 47/10 on Betchronicle, it would mean a repeat of tactics from the Russia game, a wearing down of the opposition’s stamina with controlled one touch passing and then a series of aggressive attacks in the second half.

The odds for over 2.5 goals being scored in 90minutes are 6/5 (general) but Germany play a reasonably defensive game and its very possible they’ll look to take the lead from a trademark last minute goal, the best price for under 2.5 is 4/6 at Stanjames and Skybet. Its a tough call as Spain may change their play if Germany offer an early attack which could potentially result in a higher amount of goals.

Torres is set to be the first goal scorer at 11/2 Bluesq despite only one goal this tournament. To give him his due, he played very comfortably yesterday but he’s not good value at this price, instead I’d look up Guiza at 8/1 on Skybet.

For more Euro 2008 betting markets click here.

Russia stopped the Dutch in their tracks with a 3-1 victory which brings them to face Spain. It’ll be a closely contested match after the Russians played so well against the Netherlands. The bookies have Spain at 11/10 general with best value at Skybet 6/5 so it seems the underdogs are Russia here at 11/4 (Skybet) and 13/5 at William Hill.

Again, though, I feel Spain are unsuited to the pressure. Coach Aragones was effusive about his team’s resolve after the Italy game. This could show he was worried about what such a defensive game could do to his players. However lets not forget Spain’s crushing 4-1 defeat of Russia in the opening stages of the tournament. Definitely solid evidence of Spain’s prowess over the young Russian team. I think Spain will be playing a transformed team though and I would like to hedge my bets with the Russians.

For the half time/full time bets the bookies have pegged down Russia/Russia at 11/2 on Bet365, best value can be found at Bet Chronicle for 63/10. Whilst Spain/Spain is at 14/5 (Bet Chronicle). Its seems the bookies feel that, if Spain can bag an early goal, they should be able to hold on to a lead till the end of the 90minutes. However I feel Russia will play a defensive first half, and go on to score a late second half goal. The odds for this are 7/1 general, with best odds at Ladbrokes for 8/1.

Fernando Torres is placed at 11/2 at Coral to score the first goal, Torres has had five shots on target this tournament and only one goal. I feel this price was made with his premiership career in mind, not his performance in Euro08. However 7/1 at 888Sport is pretty good value for No Goalscorer.

The number of goals market is at 6/5 over 2.5 goals and 4/6 under 2.5. If Spain take control of the game early on we could be looking at a fairly defensive game with a lot of possession to the Spaniards, but I feel Russia will want to play an aggressive first half and may force the opposition to take more shot. Hence I feel these are reasonable odds.

For more Euro2008 betting markets click here.

Germany – Turkey

Now we’re down to the last four and surprisingly Turkey are still in it. Despite numerous injuries to key players, Turkey have battled their way to the semi-finals where they now face a strong German team, if Turkey’s numbers dwindle even further the Uefa have stated they will call an emergency meeting. But it seems Turkey’s momentum could carry them through this next match too, Turkey’s sheer exuberance at achieving this stage in the tournament transfers the pressure to the better team.

Germany’s Coach Low said “After winning two or three games, the euphoria is huge and Turkey are extremely convinced in their ability,”. The bookies feel this wont affect Germany’s quality of play as they’ve marked them down as 4/9 (Coral, Ladbrokes) and 1/2 (Betfred) while Turkey are at 15/2 at Stanjames and Centrebet.

There are high expectations for Germany to be winning by the beginning of the second half with odds of 10/11 (general) and Turkey being at 7/1 (Ladbrokes, Paddypower, Skybet). To be honest, with four players missing from suspension and five from injuries I can see why an absolute victory from the Germans seems to be the safest bet.

Again the bookies are playing it safe with Podolski to score the opening goal at 5/1 with PaddyPower and Skybet. Meanwhile Semih Senturk looks to be Turkey’s best hope for a goal, especially with Nihat Kahveci absent from the squad. The bookies have Senturk as 10/1 (general).

For more Euro2008 betting markets click here.

We take a look at the current situation of Euro2008.

It’s safe to say that this year British bookmakers have taken a beating at the hands of Euro2008’s tempestuous Group Stages. It’s estimated they suffered a £5 million loss due to the start of this summer’s tournament. The bookies have estimated that at the beginning of the competition the odds for 18+ out 24 favourites winning were 65/1. Ladbrokes spokesman Robin Hutchison said: “We’re happy to be accused of whingeing because we’ve got a lot to whinge about at the moment - Euro 2008 has been a bloodbath so far.”

The Dutch raised eyebrows all around after a 2-0 defeat over Romania on Tuesday hence allowing a much more talented Italy to prove themselves against Spain. The bookies have Spain down as 6/4 (general) to beat Italy in Sunday’s match with the best value going to Bet1128 at 8/5. Spain have had three wins so far and approach their next match with confidence but their track record in major tournaments is far more inconsistent to that of Italy’s. The Italians have had a bad start but I feel if they apply sufficient pressure on the night they’ll break the Spaniards. The Italians may know there is even more occasion for this due to the seemingly unlucky date of the match.

In the last 24 years no team who’ve qualified with maximum group points have then gone on to win the cup. These previous statistics obviously shout a trend, but I feel tomorrow’s match against Russia will show the Netherlands as the most consistent team in the tournament. The bookies are favouring the Dutch at 8/11 (90mins). They’ve been outstanding on the field, earning decisive wins over Italy and France mean they’ve already proven themselves against top class competitors. Russia on the other hand weren’t looking extremely confident at the start of Euro2008.

At 22/1 general Turkey aren’t competitors for the top title but tonight’s match against Croatia should prove an interesting fight. Despite their defeat from Portugal, Turkey have played reasonably well in the tournament. I think 4/1 represents a good value. However if Croatia go through to face Germany for the second time this tournament Croatia would have a good chance to make the final.

For more information on the Euro2008 betting markets click here.

Kimi Raikkonen is the bookies’ favourite for the French Grand Prix at a top price of 5/4 with Blue Square, Coral, Ladbrokes and Paddy Power. The Flying Finn led a Ferrari 1-2 last season in what was considered the turning point in the drivers’ championship. Ferrari also won the race in 2006 with Michael Schumacher taking the chequered flag, so they have a record to be respected here.

Ferrari team mate Felipe Massa is the 9/4 second favourite with Sportingbet and with his great recent record in qualifying means there is a good chance he is on the front row of the grid.

Kubica, who won in Canada, is top priced at 8/1 third favourite with Totesport, while Lewis Hamilton is a 11/1 shot with Victor Chandler and Totesport. Only Heidfeld and Alonso are rated shorter than 100/1 to win the race.

In the pole position betting Massa and Raikkonen are the joint 5/2 favourites with Skybet, followed by Lewis Hamilton at 3/1 with Sportingbet and Kubica at 13/2, also with Sportingbet. Massa took pole last year, so he looks a solid bet this year at 5/2.

Skybet are betting on whether there will be a safety car in the race and offer 4/6 on ‘yes’ and 11/10 on ‘no’. There have been safety cars in the last three races but Magny-Cours is a much more open circuit and the 11/10 on ‘no’ looks like a touch of value.

See all the French Grand Prix betting at bookies.com

Bookies.com takes a look at the top five in the betting at this year’s Wimbledon.

Roger Federer (5/4 Ladbrokes) – The Fedster is back after a crushing defeat at the hands of Nadal in the French open, it doesn’t look like he enjoyed his worst loss since 99 either after he ripped his way through the Gerry Webber Open without dropping a set. Merely a warm up for the chance to turn things around between him and Rafael at Wimbledon. Despite his good form at the French Open, Federer couldn’t handle a greased up Nadal on clay but now as we move into Roger’s element the bookies mark him down as 5/4 . No doubt Federer will have a mind to turn up the heat in this tournament.

Rafael Nadal (9/4 Paddy Power)– Rafa has fallen at the last hurdle these last two years. There’s no question that this Spanish brute is an exceptional player but he just can’t seem to face up to Roger on grass. He has the momentum considering his recent victory in the French Open and Queens Club Championships (including a win over Andy Roddick and Novak Djokovic). The bookies have made a rational choice to put him at 2/1 (general). Given his recently proved dominance over Djokovic on grass it’d be very easy to guess at yet another Federer/Nadal final despite a slight inclination to place my money elsewhere.

Novak Djokovic (7/2 Betfred) – Beat Federer earlier in the year at the Australian open on the new ‘Plexicushion’ surface in the semi-finals which he subsequently went on to win. Since then he has met Nadal twice. Once on clay at the French Open (had he won he would have replaced Nadal as the World No. 2) and once at the Artois championships on grass. Both times he was defeated. Novak’s skill is sufficient to give Rafa a run for his money but his lack of stamina will seriously affect his game if he comes up against any of the other players in the top 4. Betfair are offering reasonable value at 4.4/1.

Andy Roddick (43/1 Betfair) – Andy is fourth favourite to win the tournament but its clear he trails by some distant from the top 3 when the bookies have him at 25/1 (Blue Sq and Ladbrokes) Centrebet have even gone as far as 40/1. However Roddick has shown considerable promise this year after a win over Nadal in the Dubai Tennis Championships in the Quarter Finals and Djokovic in the Semi-Finals. He also defeated Federer at the 2008 Miami Masters. He was forced to pull out of the French open due to a shoulder injury but made it to the semi finals of the Queens championship where Nadal defeated him. I think Roddick has a reasonable chance of success in this tournament though it’s hard to see him making past the top three players in the same tournament.

Andy Murray (33/1 Bluesq) – Betfair have got Britain’s favourite at 49/1…. Still, the general opinion of the bookies is that he’s 5^th favourite to win, that’s enough to raise the hopes of those who so faithfully supported the futile Tim Henman campaign all those years. Has Britain’s time come again?

Click here for the rest of the Wimbledon betting markets.

Bookies.com ponders the results for this year’s women’s singles event at Wimbledon.

Maria Sharapova (9/4 Coral) – She’s having a pretty sunny year after breaking Justine Henin’s 32 match winning streak and going on to win the Australian Open without dropping a set. She won the Singles title at the Qatar Total Open. Her first loss of the year was to Svetlana Kuznetsova in the semifinals of the Pacific Life Open. So it comes as no surprise that she’s favoured by the bookies at 9/4 (general). There are some, however, who inquire after Maria’s shoulder after a spot of bother at the DFS Classic in Birmingham. Also take into consideration the rocky ride she took us on at the French Open.

Serena Williams (5/2 Stanjames) – Knocked out of the Australian Open by Jankovic at the quarter-finals (her fourth consecutive loss in the quarter finals of a Grand slam singles tournament). She and her Sister were then knocked out of the doubles event in the quarter-finals. After the Australian Open she cancelled her next four tournaments. A rocky start to 2008 for Serena, so it comes as a surprise that she is seeded as no.2 to win this tournament. Ladbrokes and Coral have her at 3/1 while Betfair is on 4.3/1. I find it hard to believe that she’s a contender for the final this year.

Ana Ivanovic (5/1 Totesport) – Ana has shown spectactular performance this year making both grand slam finals and winning the French Open. Now ranked No.1 in the world (partly due to Henin’s retirement) I reckon she’s good value at 5/1 general. Although it would be interesting to see her up against Dementieva (ranked 10^th favourite) at Wimbledon as she’s already lost to her twice this year.

Venus Williams (9/2 William Hill) – 9/2 at Bet365 and BlueSq and 6/1 at Betfair means there’s a lot more contesting between the top few players for the favourite spot than in the men’s event. It would be unwise to disregard anyone in the top four until you’ve really knuckled down to your research. Venus squeezed in a win over Maria Sharapova early on in the year at the Hong Kong Exhibition Tournament but yielded a win to Ivanovic in the Australian Open. It’s a tricky call especially as the bookies rate her 4^th favourite.

Jelena Jankovic (14/1 Ladbrokes) – Its hard to see Jelena come through for Wimbledon especially as she doesn’t have any previous Singles Grand slams under her belt. Her talents lie elsewhere on the clay court or in the doubles event. Betfair rates Jankovic for an unoptimistic 16.5/1 a large margin from the top four seeded. Ladbrokes have her at 14/1.

For further information on the Wimbledon betting markets click here.

The big brother producers will be delighted by the turbulent start to series 9. Alexandra’s odds have already drifted to 200/1 on paddy power but I doubt she’ll be off for a while, the public seem to enjoy a bit of banter and she’s certainly the cause. Meanwhile, early favourite Kathreya has eclipsed the votes for Darnell and Mohammed at 3/1 on Betfred and Stanjames. I think Michael also has a good chance to win, the bookies have him marked just above Katheyra at 5/1 (general) which isn’t bad value considering the amount of people who’ve marked him down to be at the finish line.

As for next eviction, Mario seems to have captured the newspaper’s eye. Although a born schemer, he lacks notable intelligence hence landing himself in the public’s black books with his recent failed escapades. The bookies have him down as 2/5 (general). Steph, Mario’s co-conspirator has also landed herself in deep water, it seems her fraternizing didn’t do her any favours. William Hill has her at 7/4. Respect.

Top man – again Michael appears to have earned someone’s approval as the bookies chalk him in as the favourite to win this event. In the event of a personality failure the obvious choice seems to be Luke, but I would also keep an eye on Mohamed’s figures. Top Woman – at this stage I’d be unwilling to bet against Katheyra.