Bookies Blog

The new Hockenheim course should prove an interesting challenge for the drivers this weekend. It’s the first Grand Prix to be held there since 2006 and although many have driven F3 on it, they found it a new experience on this revamped course for last week’s test trials

Hamilton looked strong with a half second lead on the second day of tests. The press have been speculating whether mcalren will employ the use of the new fin engine cover for the race, it is said to be factor in Hamilton’s confidence at the tests. However the fin doesn’t perform well in strong winds and Hockenheim, a track suffering from such problems, seems a risky place to test it for real.

 After Silverstone Hamilton has taken up joint residency of the number one spot with Massa and Raikkonen. All three will be pushing hard in the qualifying rounds to gain the pole position. This can explain such closely calculated odds for the Pole Position market, Raikkonen, Hamilton and Massa are 7/4, 9/4 and 9/4 respectively. This doesn’t really leave much value in the market, the only hope to distinguish anything between the three is Hamilton’s consistently high scores in the Qualifying rounds but to be frank its not really worth it.

 As to the winner it appears just as tight between the top three but I might have an each way bet on Kovalainen and see if I can make anything more than a modest return. Paddypower have released the same odds for the top three as in the Pole Position market.

 This weekend the money’s to be found in the points finish market down by Glock and Button. I’d probably stay away from Button despite, I’m sure, your patriotic inclinations. Glock is a good choice though, probably the most experienced driver for the Hockenheim circuit he’s pretty good money at 3/1 with Skybet and Bet365. If your feeling adventurous you might take a gamble on Barrichello after his pretty spectacular performance at Silverstone.

For more GP betting markets click here.

The Open due to start on Thursday looks to have a pretty high chance of rain, the weather report says it should only last 24hrs after such we may well be blessed with some sunshine. Still, its enough to throw some confusion among the ranks of golfers lining up for the biggest event on Britain’s golfing calendar.

Sergio Garcia has a lot to prove here at Birkdale, with the absence of Tiger one of his main rivals will be Padraig Harrington who landed two balls in the drink and then came back to beat Garcia last year at Carnoustie by one stroke. Harrington has had a good week as he opted out of the Loch Lomond Scottish Open this year in order to compete in the European open which he subsequently won.

Garcia is favourite at 9/1 on 888sport, Bluesq and Coral while Harrington is ranked fifth favourite at 16/1 (general). Both players made critical mistakes at last year’s Scottish Open despite both starting off comfortably. It’ll be interesting to see which one prevails this year, if you like the look of Padraig’s form recently then the bookies have offered pretty good value for the defending champ, but Garcia has had some training with Stan Utley recently and his putting is seen to be shaping up as proved by his latest win at the Players Championship.

And then there’s Ernie Els close behind Garcia with a short 10/1 with Totesport who pulled off a late win at the Honda Classic in March, pulling back from Luke Donald’s lead. He’s been looking reasonably good of late, apart form his win in Florida Ernie has also had a joint sixth in the Players Championship.

With the unwelcoming weather waiting for the players in Birkdale both Els and Mickelson are looking to sharpen their short game in order to get an edge on those who’ll rely on their drive to steal a couple less shots. Birkdale will be a real challenge for players like Garcia as no two holes are facing the same direction. Mickelson is at 16/1 (General) with his best price of 18/1 at Betfred.

All these contenders priced so close together and then add in a Lee Westwood at a 16/1 (General) it seems we’re spoilt for choice. But im inclined to take Garcia out of the equation due to the weather conditions and the difficulty of readjusting his shot according to varying strong winds, not that this is beyond his skill merely that the Spaniard cannot handle the psychological pressure applied at this level of play. Instead I feel Ernie Els to be pretty good value.

For more British Open betting markets click here.

Mark Cavendish manages to get his stage win just before the sprinters take the back seat and the racers head for the hills. Yesterday saw a cracking finish to stage five as Cavendish was forced into an early move by Thor Hushovd and subsequently went on to win the stage.

But now we move on to stages six and seven, as the overall gradient steepens the sprinters will begin to take a back seat and the GC’s start to get serious. Stage seven will eliminate any early weaknesses as the riders cross the Massif Central, it should prove the first real endurance test and a warm up to the dreaded stage 15 climb.

Alejandro Valverde seems to be the favourite with a price of 7/2 at bluesq and 888sport or 4-1 for stage 6 of the race but he still lost a minute to Cadel Evans in Stage 4. Alejandro, however, is expected to start shining as they move on to competitive territory. Cadel Evan’s is favourite to win the overall competition at evens (general) which wont be a very good value bet.

Cunego has been on hot form this season with a stage win at the Vuelta al Pais Vasco and a points win. He also won the one day Klaiska Primavera in Spain, not exactly a testament to his stamina (in Tour de France terms) but it shows he should have a strong backing for a stage seven win. To win overall Damiano is 9/1 at bluesq and 888sport.

Denis Menchov is a great choice, despite a mediocre start to 2008 this guy’s got the experience and an excellent form from last year with a yellow jersey and a stage win in the Vuelta a Espana and 2^nd place overall in the Volta a Catalunya. The bookies have him at 15/2 (Bluesq and 888sport).

For more Tour de France 2008 betting markets click here.

So Manchester United are favourites so far, with a spectacular season this year and a win at the Champions League. I suspect it has left them brimming with confidence and anticipation for next season, despite the uncertainty of Ronaldo’s position in the team. Man Utd are 5/4 to win the Premier League, this is a pretty confident move on the bookie’s behalf considering the tight competition between the top four.

 Chelsea are just behind with 2/1 at Bet Direct, it’ll be interesting to see how well their season kicks off with yet another new manager, but Big Phil’s experience and success with  Brazil and Portugal be sure to see the odds shortening on Chelsea over the next few months. It’s definitely beneficial to put a bet on Chelsea now while the price is only mildly extortionate.

And then there’s Liverpool at a price of 7/1 general or 8 if your with Betfred. Despite their standard of play last year they only came fourth, I think it’s a reasonable proposal. Liverpool have a talented side and they play consistently well but they still haven’t won a title since 1990, there isn’t much value in this bet right now but it wouldn’t hurt to check out their form closer to the start of the League.

As for relegation, Hull City are 3/10 the bookies don’t show much faith in the recently promoted team who’ll be playing in the Premier League for the first time ever. I think, however that West Brom are much better value at 5/4 for Canbet.

With Hull, Stoke City and West Brom all looking to be knocked out at the end of the season there looks to be some serious betting down this end of the market too. The competition looks tight between Stoke and Hull who were put down as 15/8 (best price) and 6/4 (best price) respectively to finish bottom. West Brom are looking a confident 11/2 on Paddypower, which needs be left alone.

There’s also some interesting odds on who’ll make the top six, Everton and Villa look to fight it out for the number six spot. The odds tell of close contest with Aston Villa at 1.7/1 (betfair) and Everton a 1.5/1 (betfair)

For more Premier League 2009 betting markets click here.