Bookies Blog

Suarez looked ’slick and dangerous’ but was unfortunately subbed off after 60 minutes. I thought that Spurs played well against Stoke on Sunday, and would’ve done better had it not been for a penalty and a red card. I didn’t think that the same would happen in Northen Italy, but I was ‘ready to be punished!’ Juande Ramos is now 5/1 with Ladbrokes to be axed by Sunday.

Our real focus is on tomorrow’s Breeders’ Cup action, where we can finally see 12/1 Winchester and 3/1 Curlin in action. By the way, Curlin is trading at 2.4/1 on Betfair at the moment, but Ladbrokes are still holding their 5/2. That should disappear by tomorrow.

Tonight sees the Fillies and Mares take centre stage at Santa Anita, which might throw up clues for tomorrow’s action. The first Breeders’ Cup race, 8.35pm UK time, is the Filly & Mares Sprint over 7 furlongs. Ventura looks good value at 4/1. There is no point doing it each way, because it will only return our stake. She will appreciate the drop back in trip, loves the polytrack, and should go well. Bobby Frankel got excited at the initial 8/1 quotes offered by the bookmakers, but those prices have long since gone.

In the Filly & Mare Turf at 10.35, I fancy the chances of Godolphin’s Folk Opera. Unbeaten in 4 starts over the trip, she could make all under Frankie from a decent draw. Take Coral’s 11/1.

In the Ladies Classic, it is impossible to look past Zenyatta. She has won over the course and is a true speed merchant. If you watch some of her performances on the Official Breeders Cup Site, you can’t fail to be impressed. Buy some money 8/11.

Recommendation:

1pt 4/1 Ventura Filly & Mares Sprint

1pt ew 11/1 Folk Opera Filly & Mare Turf

5pts 8/11 Zenyatta Ladies Classic

As well as comparing odds with the British bookmakers on bookies.com, I would also recommend the totebet service for betting into the Santa Anita Track pool. As well as standard win, place and show betting, the exotic bets are very rewarding.

Superfectas, trifectas, pick 6, super high 5, daily doubles and exactas are all available to UK and U.S. customers.

Check out bookies.com to compare odds for all of the Breeder’s Cup action:

Friday @ Santa Anita

Saturday @ Santa Anita

Breeders Cup Classic betting

For some time last night, I was even doubting that we would pull off the Draw/Chelsea HT/FT result. John Terry was the man who got us out of jail. Meanwhile in Madrid, Liverpool touched 1.2 in running, but backers of the 11/1 English club accumulator were denied by Simao. “Atletico are perhaps a Betfair lay at 2.9.”

Punters without Sky Sports have some consolation in tonight’s UEFA Cup action, screened on Channel 5. Sorry Spurs kick-off at high-flying Udinese at 6.10pm, whilst Martin O’Niell’s Villa host Ajax, 8.15pm kick-off.

In the first match, Udinese are generally evens to prevail, the draw is 13/5 and Tottenham are 3/1 outsiders. Juande Ramos hads a good cup record, although Ladbrokes make him 9/4 not to be manager by the conclusion of the group stage. Udinese are 2nd in Serie A, and Spurs have a grand total of 2 points – shouldn’t the home side be odds-on?

Spurs played some decent football against Stoke on Sunday after Gareth Bale was sent off, although they will miss both Corluka and Pavlyunchenko tonight as they are cup-tied. However Udinese are likely to have one eye on their clash against Roma at the weekend, and may rest some key players. Quagliarella has been prolific this season, and is 5/1 to open the scoring.

Udinese have only played one side from the top 9 of their domestic league (Napoli), so perhaps their lofty position flatters them. I can’t bear to side with Tottenham tonight, but I still think that they might hold some value given that Ramos will be fighting for his job. If the match was last season, I would be smashing into the 3/1 offered for Spurs, but tonight I’ll only have a small interest in the Asian Handicap market. I am ready to be punished! Spurs +0.5 at 23/25, which is equivalent to laying Udinese at 2.04 on the exchanges.

4/1 Ajax have injury problems and still haven’t replaced the likes of Ryan Babel and Wesley Sneijder. Villa’s pace will cause problems and it is no surprise to see them best-priced at 4/5. In the first goalscorer market, many will take either 5/1 Carew or 8/1 Klaas-Jan Huntelaar. Just like I let Robinho score first for Man City at the weekend, I’ll be looking for more value. Luis Suarez is a terrific player from Uruguay, who has been scoring freely. Ladbrokes make him 10/1 in both the first and last goalscorer markets, which is an insult.

Recommendation:

2pts Spurs +0.5 v Udinese

1pt each way 10/1 Luis Suarez First Goalscorer Villa v Ajax

bookies.com compares all the odds for tonight’s UEFA Cup matches to find you the best value, including Braga v Portsmouth & Schalke 04 v PSG.

Do you think that David Beckham will help AC Milan to win the UEFA Cup? Find the best odds for the outright winner.

Udinese v Tottenham Match Betting

Udinese v Tottenham First Goalscorer Betting

Udinese v Tottenham Asian Handicap Betting

Villa v Ajax Match Betting

Villa v Ajax First Goalscorer Betting

Wondering whether Man U to win both halves, Man U to win to nil or Man U to win by two goals or more is like splitting hairs. Lyon came from behind to beat Steaua 3-5 in a see-saw match, neither team settling for the draw. Arsenal tore apart Fenerbahce’s home record, and have now be cut to 10/1 to lift the trophy.

Tonight I am steering clear of Atletico Madrid v Liverpool for a number of reasons. Firstly reports from Spain are suggesting that star striker Sergio Aguero will be rested. Atletico have the maximum of 6 points, and are making La Liga their priority, making 8 team changes from their 2-1 defeat to Real.

Secondly, even with Sky Sports Xtra multiscreen, it is difficult to follow two matches at the same time. Flicking between channels, like I did last night, inevitably means you’ll miss goals. Atletico are 13/8 for the win, perhaps a Betfair lay at 2.90. I won’t put anyone off who took Paddy Power’s 11/1 for the English fourfold in Europe, and evens looks a fair price for Liverpool in the Draw No Bet market.

Chelsea are absolutely rampant, and even though 10/1 Roma welcome back Francesco Totti, 4/9 is a decent price. Their record reads: 13 unbeaten home Champions League matches and 5 straight clean sheets in all competitions. Roma’s record in England: P11, W1, D3, L7.

The home side are 11/10 to win to nil, but Roma’s attack should pose more of a threat than Middlesbrough. Roma lost 0-4 to Inter at the weekend, although Spalletti reckons the result was harsh. Tonight he can call upon the suspended Philippe Mexes and Christian Panucci to shore up the back.

Roma are 3/1 to score first, a tempting price, as they have scored a first-half goal in 10 out of their last 13. In the first goalscorer market Totti and Vucinic are 10/1, whilst Mexes is a potentially rewarding 50/1. There should be at least 2 goals in the match, so I’ll take over 2.5 goals at 10/11 with Betfred.

Elsewhere, 2/1 is a big price for Marseille to defeat PSV.

Recommendation:

2pts 10/11 Chelsea v Roma Over 2.5 Goals

1pt 3/1 Roma to score first

1pt 7/2 Draw/Chelsea HT/FT Result

1pt 2/1 Marseille to beat PSV

bookies.com compares all the Champions League odds, and has the odds for the forthcoming Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita:

Atletico Madrid v Liverpool Match Betting

Atletico Madrid v Liverpool Draw No Bet Betting

Atletico Madrid v Liverpool HT/FT Betting

Chelsea v Roma Match Betting

Chelsea v Roma HT/FT Betting

Chelsea v Roma First Goalscorer Betting

PSV v Marseille Match Betting

That’s the great thing about betting the first goalscorer each way. ‘Obvious’ 6/1 Robinho kicks you in the teeth with a penalty, but all is not lost. It took time, but 4 mintues from the end Stephen Ireland rewards us for taking a ‘whopping’ 16/1. We also predicted and backed over 2.5 goals. We also thought that Kinnear was ‘underrated’ at 10/1 to be next Newcastle Manager, now into 4/1.

Manchester United are the ‘bankers’ of the night, top-priced at 2/7. The bookies will be egging on 14/1 Celtic, to try and recoup losses sustained over the weekend after the Big 4 all won. United are in inspired form whilst Celtic are deep in an injury crisis, missing 3 forwards: Samaras, Jan Vemnegoor of Hesselink and Chris Killen. Celtic have a truly shocking away record in the Champions League, having never won in 18 fixture, and only twice managing a draw.

United have kept 7 clean sheets in their last 8 European games, and layers of Celtic will be anticipating ‘free money’. However, take a look a Celtic’s competitive record in England, only 1 defeat from their last 6. That defeat was at Old Trafford. Read into form as you like, but there is no denying that Wayne Rooney is firing on all cyclinders and is 4/1 in the First Goalscorer market. Ronaldo is 7/2 to open the scoring, whilst Sky Bet offer 5/2 that both players net.

Man U are 8/11 to win to nil, which is more appealing than 10/11 offered by Betfred for United to score in both halves. I don’t like to get too stuck into these sorts of games, because it is so hard to find decent value. 20/1 Nakamura to score first? Not wholly confident. Small wager on the handicap result, Man U -1 at 4/5 with Betfred.

The Fenerbahce v Arsenal game also kicks off at 7.45pm, and will be screened on ITV4. Arsenal are too short for me at evens, and are experiencing defensive problems. The home side have not lost at home in their last European 15 matches, and can be backed for the win at a huge 3/1 with Boylesports. Either lay Arsenal on the exchanges at 2.1, or back Fenerbahce +0.5 in the Asian Handicap market. Also value in the ‘Draw No Bet’ market where we can take the home side at 7/4.

That’s it for the televised matches. Elsewhere Steaua Bucharest v Lyon smells like a draw, 23/10 with Sky Bet.

Recommendation:

2pts 4/5 Manchester United -1 Handicap Result

3pts 7/4 Fenerbahce Draw No Bet

1pt 23/10 Steaua Lyon Draw

bookies.com compares the odds for all Champions League fixture, including Juventus v Real Madrid and Porto v Dynamo Kiev

Man U v Celtic Match Betting

Man U v Celtic first Goalscorer Betting

Man U v Celtic To Win to Nil Betting

Man U v Celtic To Score in Both Halves Betting

Fenerbahce v Arsenal Match Betting

Fenerbahce v Arsenal Asian Handicap Betting

Fenerbahce v Arsenal Draw No Bet Betting

S Bucharest v Lyon Match Betting

A sensational weekend of betting, marred only by hard luck in the Chinese Grand Prix. Lewis Hamilton finally conquered his Asian demons, and is 1/7 to take the Drivers Championship. Even if Massa wins the Brazilian GP, Hamilton only needs to finish 5th. The Ferrari driver is 6/4 favourite with Ladbrokes for victory at Interlagos – a decent price for his home GP.

Alonso was a commendable 4th in Shanghai, not sufficient for our each way bet, but still rewarding for punters who back him at evens to win the grand prix with the ‘Big 6′. Bourdais shortened to evens for a points finsh after qualifying, but his race was over following an early incident with Jarno Trulli.

Our ante-post fancy for the Melbourne Cup is Mad Rush, backed at 16/1. Following an unlucky fourth in the Caulfield Cup on Saturday from a terrible draw, he has now been promoted to favoritism at 4/1! Let’s not forget that our biggest bet to date, Aidan O’Brien not to train 26 or more Group 1 winners in 2008, is doing very well. We backed it at evens, now William Hill go 1/4! The shake up comes after Rip Van Winkle flopped in the Dewhurst, heavily backed at 11/8.

Duke of Marmalade has been confirmed for the Breeders Cup Classic, in which he is 12/1. Johnny Murtagh will almost certainly ride the Duke, because 7/1 Henrythenavigator isn’t proven over the 1m2f trip. We told you 11 days ago that the Duke “cannot be backed at 4/1 in the Breeders’ Cup Turf given that he may opt for the Classic.” I cannot imagine that you will get 3/1 for Curlin on the day, so take it now at Ladbrokes. Our selection for the Breeders’ Cup Turf was 12/1 Winchester, although I backed him the following day at Ladbrokes at 14/1. He has shortened to 10/1, but is as short as 6/1 with some firms.

Meanwhile in tonight’s Premier League clash, Manchester City travel to Newcastle, who have lost their last three matches at St. James’ Park. Don’t be too impressed by Newcastle’s apparently ‘gutsy’ draw at Everton – Moyes’ side haven’t won at home in four tries. The form pick is certainly an away win, 6/4 this morning but now 11/8. The home side make little appeal at 23/10, so I’ll side with a Man City win. Even with Michael Owen missing due to a groin strain, I still think this will be a high scoring match.

Back over 2.5 goals at 5/6 with Stan James, because both teams have woeful defensive records. If asked to recommend a player in the First Goalscorer market, it would have to be a Man City player, as we are supporting them to win the Premier League without the Big 4. 6/1 Robinho and 7/1 Jo are obvious choices, but I’d prefer a bigger price for an each way selection. Shaun Wright-Phillips is 10/1, but I’ll take Stephen Ireland at a whopping 16/1.

Recommendation:

3pts 6/4 Massa to win the Brazilian GP

3pts 3/1 Curlin to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic

4pts 5/6 Over 2.5 goals Newcastle v Man City

1pt each way 16/1 Stephen Ireland to score first

bookies.com will enable you to find the best odds for all of the Breeders’ Cup Races and the forthcoming Champions League Fixtures.

Brazilian GP Winner Betting

F1 Drivers Championship Betting

Melbourne Cup Betting

Breeders Cup Turf Betting

Breeders Cup Classic Betting

Newcastle v Man City Match Result Betting

Newcastle v Man City First Goalscorer Betting

Newcastle v Man City HT/FT Betting

Newcastle v Man City to score 2+ Betting

Newcastle v Man City Correct Score Betting

Lewis Hamilton heads the outright winner betting at 7/4, but his form in Asia this year reads: 5-13-3-12. Patriotism can badly skew the betting markets in Britain, just as Stan James have cut England to win the 2010 World Cup from 10/1 to 7/1. Lewis topped Friday’s second practice in Shanghai, and will hopefully drive more conservatively after his antics in Japan cost my bet on Kimi Raikonnen.

Raikonnen is generally 6/1 this weekend, although I am concerned about the car’s speed. The two Ferraris finished sixth and eighth in the practice, which doesn’t inspire betting confidence. Nevertheless, they are 11/10 to be the winning constructor this weekend.

I accept that the odds won’t be as generous as Singapore, but 11/1 Fernando Alonso has to enter calculations. The Renaults had plenty of pace in the practice, finishing 3rd and 4th. I would want each way terms, so the best we can do is 9/1 with Blue Square. Simply betting on him at 8/5 to get a podium finish makes little appeal, never mind how erratic the Big 4 have been.

Heikki Kovalainen was showing good speed last weekend until he suffered from a rare technical glitch, so is also an interesting each way prospect at 16/1 with Paddy Power.

My big bet this weekend is on Sébastien Bourdais to finish in the points at 13/8. Bourdais was in the top 3 in practice today until he ended up in the gravel, which meant that he missed the last 11 minutes. He still managed a creditable 7th place. The Frenchman was harshly penalised 25 seconds for an incident with Felipe Massa, which meant that he just missed out on a points finish.  The team’s technical director, Laurent Mekie, believes that the Chinese GP will be more favourable for the team. The Toro Rosso team haven’t guaranteed Bourdais a place in the team for next season, and with the F1 season drawing to a close, he will be giving it his all.

Recommendation:

5pts 13/8 Bourdais Points Finish

1pt ew 9/1 Alonso to win the Chinese GP

bookies.com compares the odds between the leading British bookmakes for all of the F1 markets, including whther or not there will be a Safety Car.

World Cup 2010 Winner Betting

Chinese GP: Winner Betting

Chinese GP: Winning Constructor Betting

Chinese GP: Podium Finish Betting

Chinese GP: Pole Position Betting

The leading Irish Bookmaker, Paddy Power, is now paying out punters who have bet on Obama to be the next U.S. President. The news comes after the final debate between the two candidates, which Barack Obama is adjudged to have won yet again.

The firm said, “We declare this race well and truly over and congratulate all those who backed Obama; your winnings await you.” The bookies have reported one-way traffic for the Illinois Senator, who was a 50/1 shot back in May 2005. One astute punter had a cheeky €50 at the price. The firm has also reported a single bet of €100,000 at odds of 1/2 back in June.

Great news for followers of this blog, as our second highest stake to date is on Obama at 4/6. Paddy Power also paid out early on Boris Johnson for the London Mayoral Contest, so the omens are good. Coral are offering 1/8, but I’m afraid I won’t be “buying money”.

Instead this blog will be featuring tips for State Betting, including fascinating contests such as the state of Missouri, which was only got the ultimate winner of the election wrong once since 1904. Are you a great follower of historical trends? The Democrats are currently 4/6 to win Missouri…

bookies.com compares odds for all sports betting markets, as well as specials, including political betting.

Presidential Election Betting

Missouri Winning Party Betting

Back 4/11 England at your peril! For the same reasons at the shaky Kazakhstan match, I cannot see any value at backing the away side at such short odds, never mind the absence of Alexander Hleb. The best price you can find for Belarus on bookies.com is 9/1, although they are presently trading at 8.8/1 on Betfair.

An England victory is by no means certain, and Belarus are likely to pose a much stiffer test than Kazakhstan. They have drawn 4 of their last 6 matches, including to the likes of Germany, Turkey and Argentina. Only a last-minute Shevchenko penalty denied them another draw at Ukraine. The draw tonight is somewhat appealing at 18/5, just as I wouldn’t put anyone off laying England at 1.47.

We can back Belarus with an Asian Handicap of +1 with Paddy Power at 13/10, meaning that we collect if Belarus either win or draw, and get our stake refunded if England win by a single goal margin. England often seem to be slow out the traps, so we’ll have a small wager on the Belarus/Draw Half-time/Full-time result at 20/1 with totesport. Do note that each time this blog has fancied a draw, the score has been 2-2 – available at 28/1. There has been financial support in the 0-0 correct score, now as short as 8/1.
Recommendation:

3pts 13/10 Belarus +1 Asian Handicap

1pt 20/1 Belarus/Draw HT/FT Result

1/2pt 28/1 2-2 Correct Score

bookies.com compares live odds for all of tonight’s World Cup Qualifiers, including Germany v Wales (BBC3 7.45pm) and Brazil v Colombia (SS1 2am)

Belarus v England Match Betting

Belarus v England Asian Handicap Betting

Belarus v England HT/FT Betting

Belarus v England Correct Score

‘I am tempted to side with Cleveland’. This is what happens when you bet with your head instead of your heart! The Browns upset the Giants 35-14 – no need for the generous 9 point start offered by Coral. The New York Giants have now been eased out to 15/2 in the Superbowl market.

Plenty of tennis action to get your teeth stuck into this week, including the Madrid Masters and the Zurich Open. In Madrid it looks set to be another tussle between 11/5 Federer and 9/4 Nadal. I’m not tempted to have a bet in the winners market, because Federer’s shock return may compromise his fitness.

Ginepri is an expensive player to follow, and incredibly over-rated. Let’s have a small win bet on Llodra in today’s afternoon showdown. Ginepri hasn’t been able to reproduce his French Open form, which saw him make the last 16. 5/4 is a decent price for Llodra whose Singles game has come on leaps and bounds.

Meanwhile in Zurich, Venus Williams is the 5/2 favourite but I prefer 7/2 Jankovic. The Serbian was an impressive winner of the Kremlin Cup and is in blistering form, but like Federer, she may be fatigued.

William Hill aren’t taking any wagers above £100 in the 3:50 at Newcastle, labeled by the bookies as a ‘bad each way race’.  The favourite, Princess Rainbow, is available at 1/4 to back with Paddy Power. Never mind that it’s a maiden, but with 8 runners, we’ll be looking for other horses to fill in the 2 other places. 33/1 Golondrina was staying on after her previous maiden over 1m1/2f. She acted reasonably over soft ground, and could well nick a place. Small stakes, as the favourite looks rock solid.

Our Melbourne Cup hope, 16/1 Mad Rush, lines up in Saturday’s Caulfield Cup. The Luca Cumani trained winner of the Old Newton Cup will face a stern test against 7-time Group 1 winner Weekend Hussler.

Recommendation:

1pt 5/4 Llodra to beat Ginepri

1pt each way Golondrina (3:20 Newcastle)

Compare the odds for these markets at bookies.com:

Newcastle 3:50

Superbowl Betting

Madrid Masters: Winner Betting

Madrid Masters: Llodra v Ginepri Betting

Zurich Open: Winner Betting

A great weekend for this blog!

Italy odds-on favourites against Bulgaria? “I certainly won’t be having any”. Result: 0-0.

7/5 France? “Romania will create problems. Small draw bet.” Result: 2-2.

2/7 England/England HT/FT Result? “England have stuttered this year”. HT Result: 0-0.

We have more World Cup qualifiers to get our teeth into mid-week, so remember to read our betting advice before you compare the odds on bookies.com.  Incidentally,  I notice that Ladbrokes are now offering 14/1 for our Winchester in the Breeders’ Cup Turf, I will be topping up our each way bet. Any doubters are advised to watch his recent Group 1 romp in the Secretariat, helped by the application of blinkers.

Today we focus on the NFL fixture between Cleveland and the New York Giants. British readers remember that this match will be televised on Channel 5, as well as Sky Sports 1 at 1.30am.

The 2/7 Giants notched up an impressive 44 points against Seattle last week – without wide receiver Plaxico Burres. The team has been in rampant form, outscoring their opponents by an incredible average of 19.5 points in their four victoires, meaning that they have shortened to 6/1 for the 2009 Superbowl.

Meanwhile, Cleveland have only scored 46 points in their four games, and only have a victory against the dire Cincinatti against their name. It has been 5 years since they appeared on Monday night, but a staggering 15 years since they won on a Monday night. Not only do the Browns have history against them, but quarterback Anderson looks nervy, tightend Kellen Winslow is out of action and the offense has been drawing blanks.

Punters would be advised to cast an eye over the pre-season exhibition match between the two teams that took place on August 18. The Browns were losing 3-30 following numerous errors, but ended up only losing the match 34-37. The handicap betting is restricive, but I am tempted side with Cleveland, especially as some firms are allowing them a 9 point start.

More appealing however, in the Total Points betting. Despite the impressive form of the Giants, this match will hopefully be under 43.5 points which is available at 10/11.  Cleveland’s last ten games have been under the Vegas Line, meaning that we will also have a small interest in the Quadpick market: Giants and Under 42.5 points at 5/2 with Stan James.

Recommendation:

2pts 10/11 Under 43.5 Points

1pt 5/2 Quadpick: Giants and Under 42.5 points

bookies.com compares the odds from a wide range of NFL markets. For example, tonight you can compare odds on Highest Scoring Quarter or even Longest Successful Field Goal.

Browns v Giants Betting

Browns v Giants Handicap Betting

Browns v Giants First Touchdown Betting

Browns v Giants Total Points Betting

Browns v Giants Quadpick Betting

Superbowl XLIII Betting