Bookies Blog

Stephen Ireland is one to be on the right side of in the goalscoring markets, as he has scored 4 in the last 3 games. Any takers at 14/1 for him to score first in the Manchester derby?

The feature race of tomorrow’s televised cards is the Hennessy Gold Cup, where 17 runners will each be hoping to emulate Denman’s victory last year.

2.40 Newbury HENNESSY GOLD CUP CHASE 3m21/2f

11/2 Big Buck’s (167)

Stablemate Denman won this race last year at similar odds, and we all know what happened next. Paul Nicholls has been talking this one up for some time now, earning the horse ambitious 25/1 quotes for the Gold Cup. Even if he was to win this race, I wouldn’t be sure about backing him for the festival. Big Buck’s made a few mistakes at Aintree in his last race, and he’ll need to put in a better performance to win this. Kauto Star was hugely disappointing last weekend, meaning that the bookies are happy to push the horse out to 11/2 from 5/1.

6/1 Air Force One (168)

Reported to be in the ‘form of his life’ by trainer Charlie Mann, and should come on for his Ascot run, in which he finished 2nd to Roll Along. A decent alternative to the favourite, but you’d be happier taking the 10/1 on offer earlier this month.

7/1 Character Building (157)

A big scopey chaser, this one fills the Denman mold, who he finished 3rd to in last year’s edition. He stays well and jumps fluently and currently well fancied for the Grand National at 25/1

8/1 Island Flyer (166)

Should improve for his appearance at Wincanton and carried the ideal weight, 10 stone. No surprise to see that he has been subject to a mini gamble, and has been halved in price from 16’s.

9/1 Albertas Run (165)

Won the SunAlliance at Cheltenham last season, and I think he could well turn the tables on Big Buck’s after finishing 3rd in the same race at Aintree. The race wasn’t run to suit, but the Hennessy should have a strong gallop as the Newbury course is flat. He didn’t give a true account of himself at Carlisle this month because of the ground, but is entitled to come on for the run. AP McCoy’s ride has been supported into 9/1, a price that I’m happy to take.

14/1 Oedipe (172)

Nicky Henderson is in terrific form and Oedipe looks to have a good chance, having found 2m4f inadequate at Punchestown. Will go on any ground and shouldn’t need prep race.

16/1 Slim Pickings (160)

Perhaps he doesn’t stay the Grand National distance, so he’ll be one to keep an eye on this Saturday. Will jump well and should be tip-top after a 2m prep race at Navan. Each-way chance.

16/1 Royal County Star (160)

The Irish haven’t won this race for some time now, but Tony Martin will be hoping that a prep race at Navan has blown away the seasonal cobwebs.

18/1 High Chimes (160)

Horse has been on the upgrade but more will be required to win a top class race like this. Another that will welcome any rain before the off.

19/1 Dear Villez (160)

Won the Munster National and will love the ground. Could well run a big race for Paul Nicholls.

21/1 Snoopy Loopy (172)

Snoopy is going for the Order of Merit and was a shock winner of the Betfair Chase last week. His big price probably reflects the view that the 2 races are too close together, but don’t rule him out!

25/1 Verasi (157)

Reported to be fit and well and will welcome the forecast 5mm to 6mm rain between now and the race. Trainer gives him an each-way chance.

30/1 Knowhere (167)

Will find it difficult under top weight, but Denman defied the same penalty to win it last year. This horse is classy on his day but probably best watched. Having beaten Snoopy Loopy and Exotic Dancer last time out, I make him around a 15/1 shot.

40/1 Always Waning (163)

Likes a strong pace, but Peter Bowen is probably relying on Snoopy Loopy to get in the money. Targeting the National, in which he is 100/1 in the antepost market.

50/1 My Will

Hasn’t raced since April 2007, and jockey booking confirms that Big Buck’s is the stable’s main hope.

50/1 Madison Du Berlais (168)

Was ‘lazy’ at Ascot when beaten by Air Force One.

66/1 Monkerhostin (167)

A massive price for such an honest horse. Monkerhostin won the Bet365 Chase last season at Sandown but disappointed in the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby when he made a mistake. Phillip Hobbs believes the horse will act on the ground and will like the course. Let’s hope that we aren’t discounting a big price winner after we thought 50/1 Snoopy Loopy was a massive price in the Betfair Chase last weekend.

Recommendation:

2pt each way 9/1 Albertas Run

bookies.com is your best bet when it comes to comparing odds. Find out the latest market movers and ensure you always get the best odds across a wide range of sports betting markets.

Hennessy Gold Cup Betting

Toteswinger Long Distance Hurdle Betting

Fighting Fifth Hurdle Betting

Romford: Coral Puppy Cup Betting

Manchester City v Manchester United Match Betting

Cheltenham Gold Cup 2009 Betting

Grand National 2009 Betting

Marseille were much the better side at Anfield last night, but that doesn’t win you matches. Steven Gerrard does. An Alou Diarra goal in Bordeaux put us into profit yet again, as we recommended the 1-1 correct score at 6/1. Our tentative 33/1 selection, Benoit Cheyrou, also came very close to scoring with a 25 yard shot.

Tonight is UEFA Cup night so stick with us as we find the value. Portsmouth have been looking very average as of late, so I won’t be having a bet in their encounter with AC Milan. The visitors are available to back at 13/10, which is a fair price for a team that is likely to field a 4-3-3 with the likes of Kaka, 13/2 to score first.

Odds-against for AC Milan looks like a decent bet, but Portsmouth are one of those teams (like Wigan on Monday) where you don’t know quite what to expect. Milan beat Braga 1-0, the same team who whipped Pompey 3-0. If AC run riot I will regret a missed opportunity, but Harry Redknapp is tipping a home win - available to back at 9/4.

Yesterday our bets were French, tonight they are Belgian. I have already backed Standard Liege to lift the trophy at 33/1, but I think that Bruges are a good bet at 10/11 to beat Alain Perrin’s Saint Etienne. Perrin has yet to register a win, and the club will have an eye on the weekend fixture against Nancy. They are already assured of qualification, in the group where we have money riding on Valencia. We should take Belgian league form with a pinch of salt, but Bruges are top and unbeaten at home.

I feel that NEC Nijmegen could also cause an upset against Tottenham. Having been impressed by the Dutch side’s 1-0 victory against Dinamo Bucharest, I will have a small stake on 11/4 with Paddy Power. Elsewhere Schalke will be fielding a strong line-up against Man City, who will miss Robinho. Add that to City’s poor away form and you can see why I won’t be backing all of the English sides at accumulated odds of 25/1 with Boylesports.

Recommendation:

2pts 10/11 Club Brugge to beat Saint Etienne

1pt 8/11 NEC or Draw Double Chance (NEC v Spurs)

UEFA Cup Winner

Portsmouth v AC Milan Match Betting

NEC v Tottenham Match Betting

NEC v Tottenahm Double Chance Betting

Club Brugge v Saint Etienne Match Betting

Schalke 04 v Man City Match Betting

Gordon Brown announced in Prime Minister’s Questions yesterday that the next G20 summit would take place in London on April 2 next year. At that time Paddy Power still had a market up on which year Barack Obama would visit the UK. Unfortunately I wasn’t quick enough to snap up their 1/5, and now the market has rightly disappeared. Yes that price is short, but when you think about it as a 20% interest rate, it doesn’t sound so bad after all!

Paddy Power have invited Barack Obama to attend the Grand National on 4 April, promising him a good feed and several free bets. Aintree’s managing director has welcomed the move, even though it looks highly unlikely during Obama’s first few months as President.

We have all heard about Obama’s poker years, so perhaps he will jump at the opportunity to let his (metaphorical) hair down and have a day at the races. Paddy Power go 16/1 that he does attend, but forgive me for not backing what should be a 50/1 shot! If he did attend, I’d hope that he’d find an betting alternative to the current 20/1 market leader, Comply or Die.

You can also take 9/4 that he stays in Buckingham Palace during his UK visit, or 40/1 that he has lunch with Simon Cowell.

Check out bookies.com for a range of specials markets, including X Factor and I’m a Celebrity.

Barack Obama Specials

Grand National 2009 Betting

We told you yesterday that the draw between Villareal and Man U had been well supported at 15/8, but we still managed to find 13/2 value in the form of the correct score.

Tonight’s Champions League actions on Sky Sports has a distinctly French taste to it, so who better to preview tonight’s encounters than bookies.com’s resident Ligue 1 expert.

4/9 Liverpool are expected to come up with the goods against 8/1 outsiders Marseille, and over 2.5 goals is well fancied at even money. This is just the sort of match where the form book could be turned up on its head, just as Marseille proved with a shock 1-0 win at Anfield in last year’s competition. Mathieu Valbuena scored the only goal of that game, although he is injured this time around.

Punters looking for a big priced first goalscorer can take the under-rated midfielder Benoit Cheyrou at 33/1 with Ladbrokes, who has been banging on the door for the French national side for years now. Marseille have only won 2 out of their last 6 league games at the hostile Velodrome, and I think they are a tougher proposition away from home. For that reason I’m not at all fussed that Liverpool beat Marseille 1-2 in September, and besides, Marseille were certainly the better side so can count themselves as unlucky.

The attacking trident of Ben Arfa - Niang - Koné is a force to be reckoned with, regardless of whether Liverpool have kept recent clean sheets against the likes of Fulham and Bolton. We did well from laying the Liverpool clean sheet against Atletico, and we could repeat that bet as it’s trading at evens on the exchanges.

Chelsea have averaged 3 goals per game in their last 9 matches away from home, and there could well be a few goals in their trip to Bordeaux. Over 3.5 can be backed at a handsome 10/3 and the betting suggests it will be the away side, as Chelsea are just 1/2 to score 2+ with Skybet.

I was at Stamford Bridge for the first leg, and I have never seen such a great mis-match between 2 top flight sides. Chelsea won by a comfortable 4 goal margin, and it could well have been more. There are bits and pieces of money for the home side at 9/2 , but this match is a difficult one to call.  Both sides drew at the weekend, which can be backed with Bet365 at 13/5. As we fancy goals, the 1-1 correct score at 6/1 and 2-2 at 18/1 are the most tempting.

It isn’t known yet who’ll start up top for Chelsea, so I can’t take 5/1 Anelka or 11/2 Drogba in the first goalscorer market. Cavenaghi, dubbed ‘Cavenagol’, is always at threat at 10/1, but I’d prefer Gourcuff at 14/1 who has recently hit a rich vein of form.

Recommendation:

Lay Liverpool Clean sheet at 1/1 to win 2pts (Liability 2pts)

1pt 11/2 Marseille Draw No Bet

1pt 23/25 Under 2.5 Goals Liverpool v Marseille

Bordeaux v Chelsea Correct Score:

1/2pt 6/1 1-1 Draw

1/2pt 18/1 2-2 Draw

Last night proved how profitable it can be to check odds at bookies.com before placing a bet. The 0-0 draw at Villareal was well supported with some firms into 5/1, but we found 13/2 elsewhere.

Liverpool v Marseille Match Betting

Liverpool v Marseille First Goalscorer Betting

Liverpool v Marseille Asian Handicap Betting

Liverpool v Marseille Clean Sheet Betting

Bordeaux v Chelsea Match Betting

Bordeaux v Chelsea Correct Score Betting

Bordeaux v Chelsea First Goalscorer Betting

Sporting v Barcelona Match Betting

Cluj v Roma Match Betting

‘Wigan v Everton could well go either way’. I won’t have a bet for the sake of having an interest - the money came in for Everton, but they were beaten 1-0 thanks to a goal from Henri Camara. It looked like a tight contest on paper, and backers of under 1.5 goals at 2/1 were justly rewarded.

We also told you that the money was coming in for Zenit, but now Victor Chandler have reported a 4 figure bet on Zenit to win the competition outright, forcing them to cut their 80/1 into 50s, although the original price is still available elsewhere.

After the top 10 sides in the Premier League all failed to register wins, it comes as no surprise to find out that they have been weak in the Champions League betting.

Paddy Power have cut their  9/1 on Dynamo Kiev causing an upset at the Emirates, and now the best price you’ll find is 15/2. Punters will be worried about the recent Gallas episode, who is 8/1 to be captain again this year. I am tempted by Bet365’s quote of 4/6 that Gallas remains at Arsenal past the January transfer window. The Big 4 are 25/1 to be winless in Europe this week, also with Bet365.

Villareal v Manchester United is the feature match on ITV1 this evening, and it is very rare that you see the draw being so heavily supported. Both teams only need a draw to progress, meaning that punters are happy to take quotes of 15/8. Neither side can take the match for granted, and defeat would mean a tricky end to the group stage campaign. Villareal have conceded 22 goals in their previous 9 matches, and lost their last home match 0-3 to Valladoid. Admittedly Valladoid had beaten Real Madrid the previous weekend, but that’s no excuse in front of your home fans.

Tp make matters worse, the home side is missing 2 key attackers - Llorente and Nihat. Should I lump on Man U at 7/4? No, that is far too short a price for a side that has a shocking away record in Spain, not to mention in the Premier League this season. Man U will miss Berbatov, Scholes and Hargreaves, amongst others. The last previous 3 meetings between the 2 sides have finished 0-0, 13/2 in the correct score market. I think the bore draw is a good bet, but won’t be backing it heavily, as it inevitably leads to a nervy night in front of the TV.

Recommendation:

2pts 11/10 Villareal Draw No Bet

1pt 0-0 Correct Score Villareal v Man U

Already Recommended:

2pts 10/11 Zenit v Juventus (Match may be postponed due to a car bomb)

bookies.com is the best place to compare odds for all football matches, including tonight’s Champions League fixtures:

Champions League Winner

Arsenal v Kiev Match Betting

Villareal v Man U Match Betting

Villareal v Man U Correct Score Betting

Villareal v Man U Draw No Bet Betting

Zenit v Juventus Match Betting

BATE Borisov v Real Madrid Match Betting

Bayern v Steaua Match Betting

Fiorentina v Lyon Match Betting

‘I really don’t think that 50/1 Snoopy Loopy will finish last’. His trainer was pessimistic but we thought he’d be capable of better, little did we know that he’d go on to win the Betfair Chase at 33/1! 4/11 favourite Kauto Star unseated his new jockey Sam Thomas, and has drifted to 6/4 in the King George. Don’t miss our Hennessy preview, where we’ll find an alternative to another short priced Paul Nicholls runner - 5/1 Big Buck’s.

I cannot bring myself to have a bet in Wigan v Everton, as there is no great value around. Wigan haven’t beaten Everton since 2005, and have drifted out to the same price as the away side - 7/4. If both sides are odds-against, it usually screams draw to me, currently 23/10 with Ladbrokes. This is a match that could well go either way in my opinion as Everton look to make up points behind Aston Villa.

Aston Villa were evens to win the Premier League without the Big 4 last week, which I thought was a decent bet to cover our liability on Man City. Villa are now 10/11, whilst Spurs have been cut to 9/1, having touched 65/1 last month. Aston Villa are 9/4 to qualify for the Champions League, and Arsenal are now 13/8 to finish 5th or lower.

The relegation market is even tighter, as the only sure thing looks like 2/5 West Brom. Blackburn are now into 4/1 and Sunderland are the latest side to be cut, now 11/2.

We’ll find some more bets for tomorrow’s Champions League, but I’ll put a small stake on Zenit today. They are 10/11 following the news that Juventus will field a weak side, and must win to keep their knockout stage hope alive. Zenit have let us down in the past, so they are not quite ‘banker’ material.

Recommendation:

2pts 10/11 Zenit win vs Juventus

bookies.com compares odds across a range of football markets, with everthing from the Belgian League to tonight’s Championship match, Barnsley v Burnley.

Wigan v Everton Match Betting

Premier League Relegation Betting

Premier League Winner without the Big 4 Betting

Zenit v Juventus Match Betting

Australia have only conceded 16 points in the whole World Cup, and are as short as 1/8 to win the World Cup after 80 minutes. They have been in a class of their own, and are widely expected to trounce 15/2 New Zealand, who only scored 1 try the last time the 2 sides met. If you like your form fresh how about this one - New Zealand have beaten England twice in the competition, by 12 point and 10 point margins. Australia beat England 52-4.

With such a one sided betting contest, we will have to look elsewhere to find a potential bet. The specials offer typically poor value, for example totesport go 10/1 that a drop goal is the last scoring play. In the handicap market Australia are generally available at 10/11 to win by 19 points or more. Backers could take up shorter prices on smaller handicaps, such as 1/3 on Australia -10.

If I was to have a bet, I’d take up Ladbrokes on their 6/1 for Australia to win to nil. The same bookmaker offers 5/4 that Australia score the first 3 tries of the game - not inconceivable if the betting is anything to go by!

Rugby League World Cup Final 80 Minutes Betting

Rugby League World Cup Final Handicap Betting Betting

Rugby League World Cup Final Race to 10 points Betting

Rugby League World Cup Final First Scoring Play Betting

Rugby League World Cup Final First Tryscorer Betting

Rugby League World Cup Final To Score at any time Betting

Australia v New Zealand Specials

The tote are forecasting a Scoop6 jackpot of £4.5million tomorrow, as punters now have an idea of the likely races to feature in the £2 bet tomorrow. Totesport had a specials market open yesterday, which made it 1/4 that the jackpot was won, and 11/4 that it rolls over to Hennessy weekend.

The odds of winning are roughly 20,000/1 if you can reduce each race down to just 5 potential winners - easier said than done. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to work out that your £2 single line bet offers incredible value tomorrow, and the jackpot is just too good to miss out on.

The Scoop6 races last weekend were trappy, but I’ll certainly give this one a go. If it rolls over yet again, I will be doing a few perms for next weekend. Who knows how big this jackpot could get? Even if it is finally won tomorrow, it will be the biggest win in UK racing history.

The Scoop6 races have just been finalised, and it’s never too early to get stuck into the form. Lingfield plays a major part, so you’d do well to scrutinise Chris Catlin’s rides.

2.10 Lingfield

2.40 Lingfield

2.45 Haydock

3.20 Lingfield

3.30 Huntingdon

3.50 Lingfield
Paddy Power go 4/1 that just one lucky ticket scoops the jackpot this weekend, and also offer the best current price of 1/5 that the Scoop6 is won this weekend. With all the big hitting syndicates giving it their all, that might not be a bad price at all.

Once the race have been finalised, do check bookies.com to find the morning steamers; avoiding them will give you an added edge in the jackpot. Also, note that totesport are boldly offering 4/9 for Kauto Star in tomorrow’s Betfair Chase.

‘If Helmes starts up top for Germany, 9/1 would be a great price for him to score first.’ He scored.

‘The England U21s proved that you shouldn’t desert a team simply because they are missing players.’ You won’t be getting 14/5 from the bookies on an England victory anytime soon, home or away.

Get the lowdown on Saturday’s Betfair Chase at Haydock.

The race is unlikely to feature in the £5m monster Scoop6 jackpot this Saturday, but it is the best National Hunt races of the year. The Scoop6 races have yet to be decided, but should include action from Ascot, Haydock, Lingfield and Huntingdon. Totesport are offering 11/4 that the Scoop6 rolls over yet another weekend.

Saturday’s Betfair Chase is a Grade 1 affair, run over 3m and the ground is forecast to be good to soft. The betting all revolves around Kauto Star, just 2/5 to win it for a 3rd time on the trot. With only 7 possible runners, the each way terms are very bookmaker friendly. What that does mean is that we can study each horse in detail and see if we can find any antepost value.

SATURDAY 14.15 BBC2 BETFAIR CHASE 3M 

2/5 Kauto Star (191)

Sam Thomas will be doing the steering on Saturday instead of the injured Ruby Walsh, but Thomas is more than capable, as shown by his ride on the same mount last year. It may even be that his riding style suits Kauto better, and it would be fascinating how Thomas does in the Gold Cup if Ruby opts to ride 6/4 Denman. Kauto needs no further introduction and will take all the beating. Still, at that price it won’t make you a fortune and I would’ve much rather taken the 10/11 up for grabs a few days ago.

10/3 Exotic Dancer (186)

Ran a blinder to finish 2nd to Knowhere at Aintree and is expected to finish 2nd to Kauto. The forecast bet won’t make you rich, and I’d be one to lay it. There should be a forecast market on the day of the race, and it will be odds on, just like Exotic Dancer in the place market. He finished half a length behind Kauto in this race last year, but 3/1 is way too short for a horse that was winless last term. With McCoy on board he may attract supporters before the off, in which case I’ll step in for a juicy lay.

20/1 Cloudy Lane (168)

Last year’s favourite for the National is in ‘good order’ and has won plenty of races at Haydock in the past. Opts for this race instead of the Hennessy, where he would’ve been top weight. Punters thought that stamina was his forte but he hasn’t excelled at anything over 3m4f. He’s interesting over this trip and likes the ground, but place prospects at best.

20/1 Tamarinbleu (177)

Won the Boylesports Gold Cup and Victor Chandler last season, but ran a stinker in the Champion Chase. Surpassed all of David Pipe’s expectations last season, but the trainer is suffering from slight dip in form. 20/1 is a fair price, and backers are taking a chance that he returns to his best when fresh.

22/1 Gungadu (169)

Will be running at Aintree on Sunday instead. Probably doesn’t want more than 3m, but if he takes to the big fences his 71/1 Grand National Odds will be trimmed.

25/1 Ollie Magern (172)

Beat Snoopy Loopy by 4 1/2 lengths last time out, and you’d fancy this NTD runner in a match bet.The trainer will be happy if he finishes the race, so another that’s easy to discount. Only a player if ’strange things happen’ and should make the running.

50/1 Snoopy Loopy (169)

The current leader in the Order of Merit, his trainer has said,’even if he finishes last, he’ll get some money and he’s in great form’. Hardly the most optimistic words from a trainer, but is he saying that just to get a bigger price? He was third to State of Play in the Charlie Hall, but that run came too soon after a run at Aintree. Snoopy wouldn’t stand a chance in handicaps, but I really don’t think he’ll finish last. That said there are more talented types in this race that can fill in the second place berth.

Betfair Chase Betting

BHA Order of Merit Betting

Cheltenham Gold Cup Betting

Grand National ‘09 Betting

John Sergeant was subject to a monster gamble on Strictly Come Dancing, the 120/1 long shot a few weeks ago was as short as 8/1 with Ladbrokes this morning. The bookies can now breathe a sigh of relief as the contestant has decided to pull out.

All eyes on Glasgow this evening as Maradona’s Argentina take on 5/1 Scotland. Argentina have the quality to brush the Scots aside, and the bookies are taking no chances and go 4/6. Tevez and Aguero will be up top for Argentina, and are 6/1 and 5/1 respectively in the first goalscorer market. Darren Fletcher and Kenny Miller are notable absentees for the Scots, but Barry Ferguson is back in the side.

On paper Argentina really should breeze this, and are 13/8 to win to nil. Optimists will be taking Paddy Power’s 16/5 that Argentina will win both halves, but I will be siding with the draw. Scotland’s last 3 home internationals have all been draws, whilst Argentina have drawn 4 of their last 5 away from home. Don’t get me wrong, both sides will be trying to win this, but bet365’s 11/4 for the draw is tempting.

Meanwhile England travel to Germany and have been terribly weak in the betting. Capello’s side have won their last 4, but have been pushed out from 23/10 to 14/5 with the bookmakers. England will miss Gerrard, Lampard, Rooney, Ferdinand, Brown, Heskey and both Coles, but they should still be competitive. The England U21s proved that you shouldn’t desert a team simply because they are missing players.

Germany are missing Lahm, Ballack, Frings and Borowski and England haven’t lost against Germany away from home in the past 4 encounters. 6/5 is too short more me to bet on the home win, although I am a great believer in following the money. If Helmes starts up top for Germany, 9/1 would be a great price for him to score first. Alternatively, Klose always seems to come up with the goods for his country, but is short at 6/1.

Germany were unconvincing in their recent win over Wales, and I will take a chance that England can play out a draw. At least John Terry is starting, although he is 7/4 to be sustituted.

Recommendation:
2pts 11/4 Scotland v Argentina Draw

1pt Draw Double: Scotland v Argentina 11/4 & Germany v England 23/10

Strictly Come Dancing Winner Betting

Scotland v Argentina Match Betting

Scotland v Argentina First Goalscorer Betting

Scotland v Argentina To Win to Nil Betting

Scotland v Argentina To Win Both Halves Betting

Germany v England Match Betting

Germany v England First Goalscorer Betting

Germany v England Asian Handicap Betting