Bookies Blog

Roger Federer has been nibbled at in the betting ahead of Sunday night’s final against Rafael Nadal, and is best priced at 7/10 with Boylesports. It’s not that the bookies have made an error in chalking up their prices, they are being led by the betting public, and have little to lose following the early exit of the well backed Andy Murray.

The logic that make Federer favourite runs a bit like this: Nadal has had one day’s less rest and had a long game against Verdasco. True, but Rafa should be able to recover in time for the final, and I’m not at all concerned about our 4/1 tip.

His 5-set victory against Verdasco isn’t cause for concern - Verdasco proved that he is the form player by turning over Andy Murray. Meanwhile Federer only had to overcome Roddick is straight sets.

The World No. 1 shouldn’t be dismissed, and is 7/5 with Bet Chronicle. I’d also think about backing him at 10/1 to win the 2009 Grand Slam at this stage, because you’re bound to get a run for your money if he triumphs tomorrow.

You can also take 12/1 that the 2 players contest every Grand Slam final this year. It’s an even money chance that they meet in the Wimbledon final again, and they’ve contested the French Open final in each of the last 3 years.

I won’t be topping up my Nadal bet, but those who didn’t take the price when advised to can have a look at the Set Betting. If you fancy an epic, Nadal is 6/1 with Sky Bet to win 3-2.

bookies.com compares tennis odds between the top UK bookmakers:

Federer v Nadal Match Betting

Federer v Nadal Set Betting

Federer v Nadal Handicap Betting

Federer v Nadal First Ace Betting

Safina v S. Williams Match Betting

The big game is upon us, this Sunday is the 43rd edition of the Superbowl, the climax of the NFL season. Coverage on BBC1 starts 11pm on Sunday night, and the game will be watched by over 100 million viewers worldwide. As one of the betting highlights of the year, bookies.com is featuring a staggering 165 betting markets on the game.

The Arizona Cardinals go in as the 23/10 underdogs, but have been back this week in from 12/5. The Cardinals are often referred to as a finesse team that likes to throw the ball a lot, although the stats show that they are pretty balanced in terms of yardage and running. One of the reasons they are being dismissed is their slow running back, Edgerrin James.

Canbet’s market on James’ rushing yards tells it all, 37/50 for under 43.5 yards. Some punters will also be concerned at the Cardinals’ season, which they finished with 7 losses. Favourite backers beware, the Giants turned over the 1/5 Patriots in the last Superbowl.

Pundits think that that the Cardinals are going to have to throw it to have any chance against the heavily favoured 2/5 Pittsburgh Steelers.

Willie Parker is back for the Steelers, and will be leading their ground game. He is 7/1 with Paddy Power in the Most Valuable Player market and a short 4/5 for over 80.5 rushing yards with the Irish firm.

Backing the Giants +12.5 at evens was one of best bets of last year, and I’m tempted by 10/11 for the Cardinals +7 with Blue Square in the Points Spread market.

Ben Roethlisberger is going to have a lot of plays to run and is unsurprisingly the 2/1 favourite to be Most Valuable Player. His side’s offense has been unconvincing, which puts me off taking them at -7.

MVP often goes to the quarterback, but if we’re looking for exceptional value, I reckon it’s Anquan Boldin at 25/1 with Ladbrokes. Larry Fitzgerald, 17/2, will attract a lot of attention from Pittsburgh, and I reckon that Wide Receivers hold the value in the MVP market. Only problem is that you have to pick one on the winning team!

Recommendation:

3pts @ 10/11 Cardinals +7 (Blue Sq)

1pt @ 25/1 Anquan Boldin to be MVP (Ladbrokes)

bookies.com is the first place to go to compare odds on Superbowl XLIII:

Cardinals v Steelers Money Line

Cardinals v Steelers Point Spread

Cardinals v Steelers First Touchdown Scorer

Cardinals v Steelers Total Points Betting

Cardinals v Steelers Most Valuable Player Betting

Superbowl XLIII Specials

Cardinals Specials

Steelers Specials

Player Specials

Last weekend we were on Mealunes du Corta in the €1,000,000 Prix D’Amerique, who walked over the opposition and returned at an SP of 4.8/1. Let’s see if we can keep up that form going into this weekend’s Grade 1 Flat Race in Cape Town, the J&B Met.

Pocket Power (pictured) is the hot 4/5 favourite, and will probably be sent off at odds-on, a shade below the even money mark. He’ll be bidding for a 3rd successive J&B Met, and looks in good form after thrashing the field in the Queen’s Plate. The Mike Bass trained 6 year old has a splendid course record and is drawn in 10.

The British Bred Dancer’s Daughter is generally a 4/1 shot, and represents Pocket Power’s toughest opposition. She was turned over at 1/4 in the Paddock Stakes, but is now much fitter. She is being aimed at the Breeder’s Cup, which tells you what trainer Justin Snaith thinks of her. Kevin Shea is on board, who has just ridden a few winners at Nad Al Sheba for boss Mike De Kock.

The race has a look of a match bet between the 2 horses at the head of the market, in which case the value must surely lie with Dancer’s Daughter. She has the class to win, is drawn in 13 and is also horse number 13. In the bag.

With 16 runners, each way punters will be glad to know that most British bookies will be offering 4 places at 1/4 of the win odds. It is worth checking first, as William Hill and Sporting Bet are only paying 3 places.

One horse that could run into a place at 14/1 (Blue Square) is Kapil. He ran well in a 1 1/2 length defeat to Pocket Power last time out, and finished quickly. He meets him 2kg better off and has a chance if the pace isn’t too frantic. Buy and Sell is considered at 10/1, drawn in 5 and ridden by Anthony Delpech.

Recommendation:

1pt each way @ 14/1 Kapil [Blue Sq, 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4]

bookies.com compares odds between the leading bookmakers on all major horse races worldwide:

J&B Met Betting

Dubai World Cup Betting

Melbourne Cup 2009 Betting

Cheltenham Gold Cup 2009 Betting

Grand National 2009 Betting

West Ham v Hull City is the the tonight’s match on the box - 8pm on Sky Sports 2. There has been a bit of money for West Ham this morning, and they are currently available to back at 4/5 with Paddy Power. I can’t say I’m a fan of betting at odds-on, but I have a feeling that this one will go the way of the favourite backers.

In the Premier League form table (last 6 matches), Hull City are a miserable 20th, having shipped 17 goals. They are friendless in the betting, and could drift further from their 4/1 mark. Despite their league form, they have beaten both Millwall and Newcastle in the FA Cup this month. In 4 matches away to top half clubs this season, they have scored 7 goals - which means I won’t be taking 11/5 that West Ham win to nil.

Club record signing Jimmy Bullard looks doubtful for this match, whereas the Hammers’ £10m Savio Nsereko could make his debut, and is 8/1 to score first. I’d much rather have 5/1 about Carlton Cole, who has scored 5 in his last 6.

Whilst I think 4/5 is a fair price for a Hammers victory, I won’t be smashing into the home side. Hull are interesting at 15/8 to open the scoring, just as Draw/West Ham is a tempting 7/2 in the HT/FT Result market.

Recommendation:

1/2 pt ew @ 5/1 Carlton Cole to Score First

1pt @ 7/2 Draw/West Ham HT/FT Market

bookies.com conveniently compares all football odds in one place - so make sure you always get the best available price!

West Ham v Hull City Match Betting

West Ham v Hull City First Goalscorer Betting

West Ham v Hull City First Team to Score Betting

West Ham v Hull City Asian Handicap

West Ham v Hull City Correct Score Betting

West Ham v Hull City HT/FT Betting

Everton v Arsenal Match Betting

January Transfer Window Betting

Next Manager to Go Betting

The British Academy Film Awards (BAFTAs) are the nearest thing that Britain has to the Oscars, meaning that the betting is very similar. They take place on the 8th February and will almost certainly have an effect on the odds for the Oscars betting markets.

Whilst most nominations are the same, there are some regional differences which punters have to take into account. For example, in the Original Screenplay category foreign films such as Burn After Reading and I’ve Loved You So Long have picked up BAFTA nominations.

In the Best Actress Category, the Brits have gone for Kate Winslet (twice!) and Kristin Scott Thomas (25/1). Over the sea, the Americans preferred to give Melissa Leo a shock nomination. This actress protectionism means that I still think Anne Hathaway is a good bet for an Oscar (3/1 Victor Chandler), because Winslet keeps coming up short.

Kate is already preparing an acceptance speech for her BAFTA award, but we don’t know yet which film she’ll get in for: either The Reader (11/10) or Revolutionary Road (6/4). If I was pushed to have a bet in that category, I’d go for The Reader, which has nominations for Best Film and Best Director.

Slumdog Millionaire will probably make the headlines, and Ladbrokes are taking bets on just how many BAFTAs it’ll scoop up. 5-6 Awards is their 5/4 favourite, whilst 7-8 Awards is on offer for 6/4. 9-10 Awards may be of interest to some optimistic punters at 8/1.

I don’t fancy lead actor Dev Patel to pick up Best Actor at 10/1, but Danny Boyle should win Best Director at 2/9. Ladbrokes go 1/4 that Slumdog wins Best Film, and it could even Outstanding British Film at 8/11, but Hunger could be a better bet at 5/2.

Bet with caution, but it could also take Music, Editing, Production Design and Adapted Screenplay. If it doesn’t do as well as expected, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button looks like the one to benefit (8/1 Best Film, Bet365).

bookies.com is an odds comparison site, where you can check out Oscars and BAFTAs Betting:

BAFTAs 2009 Best Film Betting

BAFTAs 2009 Best Director Betting

BAFTAs 2009 Best Actor Betting

BAFTAs 2009 Best Actress Betting

BAFTAs 2009 Best Supporting Actor Betting

BAFTAs 2009 Best Supporting Actress Betting

BAFTAs 2009 Outstanding British Film Film Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Film Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Actor Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Actress Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Director Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Supporting Actor Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Supporting Actress Betting

Slumdog Millionaire is now best priced at 4/9 with Boylesports to win Best Film at the Oscars. Most of the other bookmakers have been scared off and go as short as 1/5. Danny Boyle’s film has been backed from about 1/2 on the betting exchanges into 2/5.

Now that I have seen the film I can’t say that I’m in a better place to bet than before. It was well directed and I was impressed with young Dev Patel. However, one problem is that that it doesn’t accurately follow the book, which is beautifully written and highly recommended, whether you’ve seen the hyped film or not.

Readers may disagree, but the storyline is soppy and the dancing business at the end is cringe-worthy.  Don’t get me wrong, I still enjoyed the film! The problem is that the Academy loves feel good movies and films that have been financially successful, so it will probably win. At this stage there looks like no stopping Slumdog Millionaire, and I wouldn’t be put off that it has fewer Oscar nominations than The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.

I also have mixed feelings about Benjamin Button, which was recently backed into 4/1, only to weaken out to 9/2. It is almost 3 hours long, and it takes Brad Pitt a long time to age backwards. I enjoyed the storyline and the makeup was excellent.

It is difficult to find opposition to Slumdog, but William Hill have recently cut Milk into 10/1. I would be extremely surprised if Slumdog Millionaire didn’t win a BAFTA (1/4), which could see its Oscar price cut further.

bookies.com is an odds comparison site, where you can check out Oscars Betting:

Oscars 2009 Best Film Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Actor Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Actress Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Director Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Supporting Actor Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Supporting Actress Betting

BAFTAs 2009 Best Film Betting

BAFTAs 2009 Best Director Betting

BAFTAs 2009 Best Actor Betting

BAFTAs 2009 Best Actress Betting

BAFTAs 2009 Best Supporting Actor Betting

BAFTAs 2009 Best Supporting Actress Betting

BAFTAs 2009 Outstanding British Film Film Betting

Last night Ulrika Jonsson caused the ‘biggest upset in reality TV history’ by winning this year’s edition of Celebrity Big Brother. Before the final show she was availble to back at 12/1, but even more stunning is that she drifted out to 66/1 with some bookmakers when put up for eviction with Lucy Pinder.

She was also matched at a high of 94/1 on Betfair. Cast your minds back to when Ulrika was a 2/1 shot to be evicted:

I said I though that Ulrika wasn’t a bad bet at 25/1 last weekend, because she is very funny. I was secretly disappointed to see her drift in the winner market, to a giant 66/1. She has now come back into 33s, which could be a better bet than Lucy to get evicted, which is what I expect to happen tonight.

Yep, Lucy also got evicted. We also tipped her up as a potential winner just after the show had started:

Ulrika Jonsson is certainly of interest at 25/1, because she is used to performing for the TV cameras. I’m not referring to her dubious love life, but her presenting skills. There hasn’t been any great money for her yet, but I’m happy enough with the current price to latch on now.

Recommendation:

2pts 11/4 Ulrika Jonsson Top Female

1pt 25/1 Ulrika Jonsson Winner of CBB

1pt 6/4 Verne Troyer Winner of CBB (Saver Bet)

Perhaps even more amazingly was the flop of Verne Troyer at 1/5. I thought that our saver bet on him would get us out of jail as the money came pouring in for him, but finally we have managed to oppose a losing short priced favourite. JLS and Martina Navratilova were both runners-up, but Ulrika has rewarded the Bookies Blog value-seekers!

4/5 Ray Quinn looks like he’ll oblige in Dancing on Ice, but the bookies won’t be too worried. William Hill have reported a profit of £100,000 from last night’s shock result.

bookies.com compares a wide range of odds for specials markets:

Dancing on Ice Winner Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Film Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Actor Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Actress Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Director Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Supporting Actor Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Supporting Actress Betting

BAFTA’s Betting

The Grade 2 Cleeve Hurdle takes pace at Cheltenham on Saturday, and is a good form guide ahead of the World Hurdle in March. The race is off at 3.45pm and will be televised on Channel 4.

Nicky Henderson’s Punchestowns is currently an 11/10 with Ladbrokes and will be sent off as favourite. In a slog over 3 miles on soft ground, the alarm bells are already ringing. He is a chasing type, who as form over the course and predicted going. With an odds-on favourite, you are always looking for an each way selection to fill in the places, and maybe give the jolly a scare. If Punchestowns does win, his 2/1 quote for the World Hurdle will be long gone.

4/1 Big Buck’s has emerged as a surprise contender over timber this year, because he was meant to be aimed at the Gold Cup. His jumping let him down in the Hennessy, but he won on his British hurdling debut at Cheltenham in handicap company. It remains to be seen just how good he is, but with Ruby Walsh on board, he has to be consdered.

There has been money for Blazing Bailey, now 7/1 from 10/1. He has had the misfortune to run into the great Inglis Drever several times, but may do better with the blinkers back on. He has been erratic but still retains his talent deep down.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see some money for 8/1 Fair Along. He has a brilliant record around Cheltenham, and will be ridden by the the under-rated Richard Johnson instead of the claimer Rhys Flint.

All of the above horses are exceptional but I’m still looking elsewhere for my bet. 20/1 Lough Derg is a game front-runner who completed back to back wins last weekend at Ascot. He has Cheltenham form and has the stamina to cope with the going and trip. David Pipe isn’t sure if he’ll be ready in time, so he could be declared a non-runner. Still, I’m on at 35/1 on Betfair and will cross my fingers that he runs.

I can see 25/1 No Refuge running a big race, but the bet of the weekend for me is PETTIFOUR at 33s. Nigel Twiston-Davies has had a mixed season, but still has a good 17% strike rate over timber. The trainer’s form means we are getting a brilliant price on a horse who deserves more attention. He was 5th to Punchestowns at Ascot last time out, but that can be excused after he made a mistake at the first. Perhaps he takes time to be wound up, as his January/February form reads: 11. He will be suited be the course and should relish a strong pace set by Lough Derg.

Recommendation:

3pts each way @ 33/1 Pettifour [Bluesq, 1/5 odds 1,2,3]

1/2pt win @ 25/1 Lough Derg [Ladbrokes]

bookies.com compares odds between bookmakers for antepost horse racing:

Cleeve Hurdle Betting

World Hurdle Betting

Letheby and Christopher Chase Betting

(Mudlover NOZIC looks a great bet at 11/2, William Hill)

Cheltenham Festival 2009 Betting

7/2 favoutire Venus Williams was matched at 1/100 on Betfair on her way to a 6-2, 3-6, 5-7 defeat to Carla Suarez Navarro today. The 20 year old Spaniard, 46th in the world, battled back in great fashion to defy in-running odds of 149/1.

She is now 300/1 with Stan James to win the tournament, in from 660/1. Her 3 set victory is brilliant news for followers of Bookies Blog, who were advised to oppose the Williams sisters.

Victor Chandler offered 4/5 before the tournament began that the winner wouldn’t be a Williams sister, which we highlighted as a decent wager. Serena Williams is the new tournament favourite at 10/3, and is looking to maintain her record in the Open.

Our other bets are also looking good at this stage. Nadal is in great form, and is now 7/2 from the advised 4/1. 6/5 Andy Murray not to win a set 6-0 is appreciating in value as his matches get tougher, and Mauresmo is 80/1 from an advised 100/1 to win the Women’s Tournament.

bookies.com compares tennis odds between the top UK bookmakers:

Australian Open Womens Title Betting

Australian Open Mens Winner Betting

The 88th Prix d’Amerique takes place this Sunday at the Vincennes Hippodrome. It promises to be a great day out for the thousands planning to attend - the entry fee is only €5. Rather than betting on the PMU, you can get brilliant odds on Betfair at the moment, as well as with a few bookmakers.

Offshore Dream is the 3/1 favourite, as is looking for his 3rd successive win in the race. In 2007 he clocked the record time of 1′12″, and he will be popular with punters on Sunday. The reason I am questioning his price is his 2008, in which he had breathing problems. He had a Prix de Bretagne (November) to forget, but re-assured his supporters in his next race, a 2nd in the Prix de Bourgogne. A deserving winner, but I’d prefer to look elsewhere.

Meaulnes du Corta is 7/2, and beat stable-mate Offshore Dream in the Prix de Bourgogne. He could be driven by Pierre Levesque, in which case he could be sent off favourite. He won the Trotting World Cup in 2007 and the French pundits are expecting him to confirm the placings with 4/1 Exploit Caf.

I am drawn towards Exploit Caf, who will be driven by the popular Jean-Michel Bazire. He hit form in Spring 2008 but has dissapointed lately - unplaced / 6th / unplaced. He should be tuned up for the race by Fabrice Souloy, but will still be overweight. A decision wil be made on Thursday.

Triton Sund is next at 9/1, but none of the other particpants are given a chance in the betting. Of the longer shots that have a squeak at a place, Niky is very interesting at 60/1 in the win market, and 9/1 to place with Bet365. Paris Haufor would be a more confident place bet at 2/1.

Recommendation:

2pts win @ 7/2 Meaulnes du Corta

3pts place @ 7/10 Meaulnes du Corta

1/2 pt win @ 60/1 Niky

1pt place @ 9/1 Niky

bookies.com compares odds between bookmakers for antepost horse racing:

Prix De L’Amerique Betting