Bookies Blog

Another great Saturday of racing is upon us, with the Newbury Gold Cup taking centre stage. The Package is the 5/1 favourite with totesport, and looks very well weighted for David Pipe. Top weight is a big ask for Paul Nicholls‘ 10/1 Natal, but punters shouldn’t discount 20/1 Mr Pointment.

The 17 runner handicap is certainly the betting race of the day; with the bookies paying out 1/4 the odds on the first 4 home.

Jumps racing fans have a feast, with meetings from Newbury, Kempton, Kelso and Doncaster.

Grand National winner Comply or Die could run in the Grimthorpe Handicap if the ground hasn’t dried too much, but 12/1 Apollo Creed would be my bet.

I’ll be looking to recoup some of my Ballymore Properties antepost bet in the Premier Kelso Hurdle.

The recent dry spell means that Wendel will probably swerve the Festival, and head straight to Aintree afterwards.

The ground at Kelso will be soft, good to soft in places. Any rain that falls tomorrow will be very welcome for 10/11 Wendel, whose 2 wins at Plumpton mean that he won’t mind the sharp, left-handed track.

Denis O’Regan, Howard Johnson’s top jockey, rides at Doncaster. 12/1 Doeslessthanme has been beaten by Alfie Flits, whilst 12/1 Teenage Idol is the 2nd string.

50/1 Mr Woods looks out of his depth at this level, and 11/1 Knockara Beau probably wants further. George Charlton won the race in 2007 with Bywell Beau.

5/2 Alfie Flits should give Wendel more to do. He was a smart performer on the flat, racing against the likes of Yeats.

At Kempton he ran a good race in 4th, giving weight away to Ainama and Trenchant. He will travel well, and may go odds-on in running. The final 2 furlongs could just find him out, which is why I’d rather Wendel carry my money, who promises to stay the trip.

Unlike last time, Wendel isn’t a banker, but a good bet nevertheless.

bookies.com compares horse racing odds between the top bookmakers.

AC Milan crashed out the UEFA Cup last night, meaning that 13/2 Man City are the new favourites.

Rafael Benitez was the subject of an enormous gamble this week in the Next Manager to Leave market, backed down from 20/1 to evens (1/1). Skybet went 1/4 that he would no longer be in charge of Liverpool next season.

Kenny Dalglish was well supported in Paddy Power’s Next Liverpool Manager market, but José Mourinho was the 9/2 favourite.

Things change quickly in the betting world, which is why you should keep an eye on bookies.com.

Rick Parry is now leaving his position as Liverpool chief executive at the end of the season, meaning that the power struggle should be over. Benitez is now 1/2 with William Hill to still be in charge next season.

With the title race seemingly over, Liverpool will concentrate on the Champions League, which they are 9/1 to win with Victor Chandler.

Last Sunday, West Brom manager Tony Mowbray was 20/1 in the sack race, but has been very well backed following the 2-0 defeat at Fulham. He is now Sky Bet’s 9/4 favourite.

bookies.com conveniently compares all football odds in one place - so make sure you always get the best available price!

Next Manager to Leave Betting

UEFA Cup Winner Betting
Champions League Winner Betting

The UAE Oaks is only classified as a listed race, but it still contains more prize money than the Group 3 races on Thursday’s Nad Al Sheba card.

It will be televised on Sky Sports 3 and run over 1m1f on the dirt surface.

The field met in the UAE 1000 Guineas on 6 Feb over 1 furlong less, but So Shiny ran out a comfortable winner at 16/1.

She is unsurprisingly the 2/1 favourite, but there are a few negatives to take into account. She ran awkwardly and had everything her way. If she does get an easy lead, it would be a great bet in running.

Devotee is 5/2 and is the mount of Frankie Dettori. She got turned over at 1/3 in the Guineas but was practically pulled up. The vet has cleared her to run and she should put up a better show. You couldn’t discount Devotee from the Godolphin team - watch the money before the race.

11/2 Earth Living is well drawn in 3 and will appreciate the extra furlong. A good each way bet.

7/1 Sos Brilliante travelled freely last time and is clearly a moody type. May run better now without the visor.

Ever Loved and Esta Bailando are discounted, but the maiden Fire Sale could spring a surprise at 16/1. Ryan Moore is on board and the stable is in better form. Don’t be put off by the 6 next to her name - she was cramped for room in the Guineas. Drawn in 8.

bookies.com is the best place to compare horse racing odds:

UAE Oaks Betting

Zabeel Mile Betting

Al Quoz Sprint Betting

Antepost Dubai World Cup Betting

Hopefully we pointed you towards the value bets in Inter-Man U last night. ‘0-0 is always a good result to keep on your side at 7/1′.

The WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship lasts until March 1 and is taking place in Marana, Arizona.

Last year’s winner Tiger Woods is making his return to competition and is the 5/1 favourite, despite some serious negatives. Punters have taken all of the 11/2 quotes and 1/3 of all the Betfair market has been matched on the Tiger.

Tiger is returning from 8 months out and may be sleep-deprived following the birth of his 2nd child.

William Hill have reported thousands of bets, with the biggest so far being £1,800. The serious punters would’ve compared odds on bookies.com and gone to Corals for their 11/2!

Punters are asking whether Brendan Jones (AUS) will ask Tiger for an autograph after their match. Woods is 1/4 to come through the first round, but 2 of his 4 losses have come to Australians here. Jones hasn’t played for 2 months, so you’d really expect this to be one-sided.

Match Play is a funny game and it is going to be difficult for punters to even find someone to make the final. I certainly wouldn’t think about laying Tiger Woods, but you have to question whether he has been over-bet.

Phil Mickelson won the Northern Trust Open last week and is now the World No.3. Sporting Bet go 18/1 and have each way terms for the first 4 places.

Over 6 matches, nobody will be playing their very best golf, which is why punters should have some long-shots on their side.

Andrés Romero (Argentina) has been backed into 66/1, having finished in 3rd in Los Angeles last week.

Anthony Kim and Sergio Garcia will have their supporters at 20s. Zach Johnson doesn’t often make mistakes, and is 70/1.

Meanwhile, Angel Cabrera is another Argentine who is 80/1 with Bet Internet. The 2007 U.S. Open Champion is 13/8 with Stan James to win his first round against Mickelson.

bookies.com is your best bet for comparing golf odds between the bookmakers.

WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship Outright Betting

Top American Betting

Winning Nationality Betting

Hole in One Betting

12/5 Manchester United take on 6/4 Inter Milan at the San Siro tonight, in just one of the mouth watering ties on offer this week (ITV1).

Man U finally conceded a goal at home to Blackburn this weekend, but still drew clear of their title rivals. They are now 1/10 shots for the Premier League and 16/1 with Stan James for the quadruple.

Inter Milan are in a similar domestic position, 1/5 with Bet Chronicle and 9 points clear of Juventus.

Both Fergie and José Mourinho are tactically astute, so punters can expect a tight game. The draw is 21/10 with Sky Bet and under 2.5 goals can be backed at 4/7 with the same firm.

If either of those prices appeals to you, you’d be better off in the correct score market. Man U are missing defenders, but 0-0 is always a good result to keep on your side at 7/1.

But let’s not get too pessimistic now. Adriano (13/2 to score first) and Ibrahimovic (6/1) will create havoc for a United defense missing Evans, Vidic, Brown and Neville.

Inter’s Serie A form is questionable though - in the Champions League Group Stage they lost matches to both Bremen and Panathinaikos, and drew to outsiders Anorthosis 3-3. They failed to score more than 1 goal in any of their home ties against weak opposition.

Man U will be a much tougher test, and are the 4/6 pick to qualify from the tie.

Ladbrokes have a market on the total number of team goals, but 4/11 is too short to back under 1.5 Inter Milan goals.

bookies.com conveniently compares all football odds in one place - so make sure you always get the best available price!

Inter v Man U Match Betting

Arsenal v Roma Match Betting

Lyon v Barca Match Betting

Slumdog Millionaire was the big winner last night, picking up 8 awards, including Best Picture. It was 1/7 for that award and Danny Boyle was also rewarded at 1/9 for directing.

On New Years Day we said that:

This prize likes to recognize films that are financially successful, and Slumdog Millionaire ticks that box. For that reason, 7/4 looks like a fair price.

Since then it tightened at the head of the market, and was cut from 4/9 into 1/6. Meanwhile Benjamin Button drifted out from 4/1 to 13/2 on the night.

Kate Winslet won Best Actress at 1/3, but William Hill quoted 15/8 that she’d win 2 or more. Paddy Power were 4/6 about her crying during her acceptance speech, but she managed to avoid a repeat of the Golden Globes.

Kate was the early favourite to win the Oscar, albeit for a different film. Don’t expect Paddy Power to pay out on bets for Revolutionary Road.

I think that The Reader, a film about the Holocaust, will go down better than Revolutionary Road. At 9/4, I’m happy to look elsewhere for a bet.

Even though we tipped Richard Jenkins for Best Actor, there were only 3 realistic contenders according to the betting. The bookies avoided a blood bath after 8/15 Mickey Rourke was denied by 2/1 Sean Penn.

4 of the last 5 winners of the Golden Globe had gone on to win the Oscar, so Sean Penn was a surprise.

Penn’s performance in Milk is likely to go down well, and he has already picked up the award before in 2003. Daniel Day-Lewis also won before in 1989, so history suggests that shouldn’t be a problem.

As for Mickey Rourke…

Does Hollywood want Mickey Rourke back? He may even be favourite on the night, but I’m can’t back him at 9/4 at this stage.

One of the biggest betting stories was Amy Adams, who was gambled into 11/4 from 14/1, after a ‘leaked document’ on the net claimed that she was the future recipient of the Best Supporting Actress award. Paddy Power will breathe a sigh of relief after taking £40,000 of bets on Amy.

bookies.com is your best bet for comparing odds on specials markets.

Less than 70 days to go to the ‘most exciting 2 minutes in sport’ - the 2009 Kentucky Derby, which takes place May 2 at Churchill Downs.

The British Bookmakers are already taking bets on the race, and have priced up Old Fashioned as the 10/1 favourite. Old Fashioned won the Southwest Stakes the other day, in the same time as 2004 Derby winner Smarty Jones.

The last European runners were the 2 sent over by Aidan O’Brien in 2002, but there could be another challenger this year. Kempton Park is staging the Kentucky Derby Challenge Stakes on March 18, which gives us something to look forward to between the Cheltenham and Aintree meetings.

The winner is guaranteed a place in the Derby and will receive a £70,000 bonus if he lines up on the big day. O’Brien has 3 possible runners in Born To Be King, Chief Lone Eagle and Great Wisdom. Gerard Butler could enter Pachattack, who is by a good dirt sire - Pulpit.

However, the last filly to win the Derby was in 1988. Eight Belles was the 29th filly to run, who finished 2nd to Big Brown in last year’s race.

Dunkirk is 16/1 from 33/1 with Corals, but has only run twice. Neither of those wins was in a stakes race, but the bookies were impressed.

He was a $3.7 million purchase in 2007 - Old Fashioned fetched $800,000 at the time. Not convinced? His pedigree is tailor-made for the Derby. Mother Secret Status won the Kentucky Oaks, whilst his sire is proven at Grade 1 level.

The major concern with having a bet is that the only unraced 2 year old to win the Derby was Apollo in 1882. The history books would have to be re-written if Dunkirk triumphs in May.

16/1 Pioneer Of The Nile won his 3 year old debut in the $200,000 Robert B. Lewis Stakes in California.

20/1 Donativum won the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf, but no horse from Britain has ever won the Derby.

Flat Out is also 20/1 with Blue Square, but was beaten by Old Fashioned by more than 4 lengths in the Southwest Stakes.

20/1 Midshipman has won the Del Mar Futurity and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and was then bought by Godolphin, who have been in great form at Nad Al Sheba. We should see him run in Dubai on March 5 in listed company.

40/1 West Side Bernie was 6th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but had to overcome a wide draw. He then had another lousy draw in January, finishing 3rd in the Holy Bull Stakes.

33/1 Chocolate Candy is another at a big price. He won the El Camino Real Derby in Northern California - his 4th win in 8.

Recommendation:

1pt ew @ 40/1 West Side Bernie (bet365: 1/4 odds 1,2,3)

bookies.com is your best bet for comparing international horse racing odds:

Kentucky Derby Betting

The mystery winner of last weekend’s Scoop6 will chase the £2,755,923 bonus fund in the Racing Post Chase this Saturday.

The punter has pledged the entirety of the fund to The Royal British Legion - a remarkable gesture and we’re willing to give it press even if doesn’t come off.

Big Fella Thanks is the 4/1 favourite for Paul Nicholls, who is 40/1 with bet365 to win both the RP Chase and the National.

Nozic is the mount of Harry Skelton, but he is worth his 5lb claim. Don’t be put off by the Ruby Walsh jockey booking, that means that you can get a price like 33/1 with Ladbrokes for a class act like Nozic, who’ll like the cut in the ground.

There have been a few whispers for 12/1 Possol who won the race a few years ago and is a progressive sort.

Richard Johnson has won the race 4 times before, and is 14/1 this year with Lacdoudal.

I feel that the value has gone from 12/1 Hold Em, who is at the bottom end of the handicap.

10/1 Nacarat will be ridden by AP McCoy, and will go well fresh. His form is very erratic, so I don’t think he’ll carry my money. He should be well supported in the betting tomorrow though.

Whatever your bet tomorrow, remember that in a 20 runner handicap that you’re better off with the bookies. 1/4 of the win odds for the each way terms is much more rewarding that the Betfair place market, even before commission.

The 2.05 at Kempton is a cracking novice hurdle contest. Ainama was so impressive at Kempton that he should probably be shorter than 10/11 (Paddy Power). Dee Ee Williams should place at 5/1, and his form was boosted by our Wendel last weekend. 12/1 Trenchant could do wonders for Torphichen’s form if he runs a big race under Choc Thornton.

bookies.com is the best place to compare horse racing odds:

Racing Post Chase Betting

Grand National Betting

Our Oscars Betting section is well worth a look, but many of the prices have changed since we embarked on the value hunt at the turn of the year. Slumdog Millionaire was an early 13/8 with Paddy Power, but is now 1/6.

We said that it was ‘nailed on’ at 4/9, but we forecast that it could go off shorter in the betting if it performed well at the BAFTAs. It won 7 of the 10 BAFTAs it was nominated for. Danny Boyle is now 1/7 to be Best Director.

Each major category has a warm favourite, but I’m not alone in feeling that not all of them will oblige on the night. Kate Winslet is now 4/9 for Best Actress, whilst Mickey Rourke is 4/7 with Blue Square for Best Actor.

Sean Penn is still in with a shout at 21/10, but our tip Richard Jenkins is a 66/1 no-hoper. Heath Ledger is 1/33 for Best Supporting Actor - surely punters will be ‘printing money’ on the night!

Penelope Cruz is 13/20 for Best Supporting Actress, but there has been a bit of late money for 14/1 Amy Adams.

Don’t worry if you missed the early prices, you can still have a bet on Kate’s acceptance speech with Paddy Power. It’s 4/6 that she cries and 9/4 that she thanks the Academy first in her speech.

It’s 10/1 that a nominated actress is photographed at the Oscars with her nipple uncovered and a juicy 12/1 that an Oscar gong is dropped on the night!

Oscars 2009 Best Film Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Actor Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Actress Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Director Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Supporting Actor Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Supporting Actress Betting

Favourites had a pretty good time of it last night in the UEFA Cup, apart from Sampdoria and Deportivo. Manchester United won 3-0, and are as short as 1/8 for the Premier League.

Paddy Power have paid out on Manchester United as winners of the Premier League, FA Cup and the Carling Cup. They are 4/9 for the Carling Cup, but the FA Cup is by no means over at 7/4. Bet365 quoted them at 300/1 earlier this season for the quadruple! Paddy Power have done this stunt before, paying out on Obama and Master Minded. They also paid out on Stoke to be relegated after only one match.

I’m hoping for more upsets tonight - one such match could be Lech Poznan v Udinese. The Polish League is on a winter break, but Lech Poznan have been in good domestic form and beat Plock 4-0 in a friendly over the weekend. 5/4 for the Italians looks too short, but they were comfortable in the Group stages.

The home side are 9/4 with Sky Bet and will rely on counter-attacking football. Robert Lewandowski is only 20 years old, but is already in the Polish national side - he is 6/1 to score first. Udinese will start with Quagliarella and Di Natale up top. If you fancy goals, over 2.5 is 5/4 with Paddy Power.

Shakhtar are being punted into odds-on for the Spurs clash, but Boylesports still go evens.

Shakhtar Donetsk sold Brandao this winter to Marseille for €6m, who has yet to find the net. I expect OM to beat Twente at 7/10, but there may be some value in the 1-0 scoreline. Their last 4 matches have finished 1-0 (or 0-1) - the 1-0 home win is 11/2 with Victor Chandler.

Fiorentina are 8/13 against Ajax, with Blue Square going 7/1 that Adrian Mutu scores 2 or more goals.

Recommendation:

2pts @ 9/4 Lech Poznan to beat Udinese (Sky Bet)

1pt @ 11/2 Marseille 1-0 Twente Correct Score (VC)

Lech Poznan v Udinese Match Betting

Lech Poznan v Udinese Over/Under Betting

Shakhtar Donetsk v Spurs Match Betting

Fiorentina v Ajax Match Betting