The John Smith’s Grand National is undoubtedly the most famous steeplechase in the world, run over an astonishing 4m4f. Thrills and spills are guaranteed – you’d be mad not to have a small wager on the race this Saturday (4.15pm, BBC1).
bookies.com compares the odds of all forty runners, to find you the best value. We are also previewing the race in depth to see if we can help you find a winner.
Victor Chandler are now Free Fall, i.e. if your selection falls they’ll refund the bet.
Bet365, BetInternet, Blue Square, Boylesports, Paddy Power and Stan James are all paying 5 places in the National.
9/1 My Will
Ruby Walsh rides My Will for Paul Nicholls – the last time he did so was in 2003 on Shotgun Willy. Ruby could’ve chosen the likes of Southern Vic, Big Fella Thanks or Irish Invader, so punters will take it as a sign that this year’s Gold Cup fifth has a very strong chance.
The good ground isn’t a worry and according to his handicap mark he is 8lb well in, after his handicap mark was revised from 152 to 160.
The reason that I’m taking on this favourite is that Paul Nicholls has only had one horse placed out of 40 in the National. With a few high-profile defections, My Will will have to carry over 11st (probably 11st 4lbs) – a major concern.
9/1 Butler’s Cabin
1) AP Mc Coy hasn’t won the National in 14 attempts.
2) AP Mc Coy’s rides are always over-bet.
3) Too much weight.
4) Fell last year, also at 10/1.
10/1 Rambling Minster
A 14,000 guineas bargain, Rambling Minster won the Blue Square Gold Cup for the Reveley family this year. He will stay all day and is 6lb well in according to the weights. James Reveley is a promising young jockey, with a 30% strike rate for Guillaume Macaire in France.
14/1 State Of Play
State of Play won the Hennessy Gold Cup for Evan Williams two seasons ago and won the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby last year. He has been kept fresh for the race, and goes well on flat tracks. Stamina is no concern, but his handicap mark is still quite high. This will only be his 14th chase, so he could still be ahead of the handicapper. One for my shortlist.
16/1 Black Apalachi
Denis O’Regan rides the 2008 Becher Chase winner for Dessie Hughes, but he only made in to the second fence in last year’s National. He will have a lot of weight to carry at 11st 5lbs and the jockey is coming back from injury. Not for me.
18/1 Parsons Legacy
Hobbs has been firing in the winners lately and Parsons Legacy looks to have a place chance. 3rd in last year’s Scottish National, Parsons will like the ground and goes well fresh. Has been gambled.
16/1 Hear The Echo
Mouse Morris sends over Hear The Echo instead of the fancied War Of Attrition. Hear The Echo won the Irish Grand National last spring from out of the handicap. The form of the race reads pretty well, with Notre Pere back in 3rd. Perhaps too much weight to be a danger.
18/1 Comply Or Die
Last years’ 7/1 winner cost the bookies millions. Red Rum was the last horse to successfully defend his crown, but I think the odds for Comply Or Die will be shorter on the day. His last run at the Cheltenham Festival was encouraging, but he is set to carry 9lbs more than last year. Up against it.
20/1 Darkness
Charlie Egerton’s star has been injury prone over the years, but has been aimed at this race. He will love the distance and should be partnered by Dominic Elsworth. If you take the form of a 2008 Haydock Handicap literally, he beat Rambling Minster by 20 lengths, yet on Saturday he will be 7lbs better off.
An impressive winner of the Totescoop6 Veterans’ Handicap Chase in February, he is 8lbs well-in.
22/1 Big Fella Thanks
Christian Williams rides Big Fella for Harry Findlay and Paul Nicholls, but for me, it’s a case of Big Fella No Thanks. No seven year old has wont the National since 1940, and even though this one has been well backed, he is a quirky sort. Turned over in the Racing Post Chase at 7/2 (fav).
22/1 Southern Vic
Southern Vic hasn’t won for trainer Ted Walsh since 2006, but if the ground came up soft, this mudlark would be a cracking bet at the price. He is a good jumper on his day and will relish the trip. Ruby prefers My Will because of the ground, and who can blame him. There is still a chance some rain could fall on Saturday morning, in which case Southern Vic would be a decent bet.
22/1 L’Ami
Enda Bolger thinks that L’Ami is in with a shout this year, and if AP Mc Coy chose to ride him, his odds would be more like 10/1. The 10 year old ran well at The Festival recently, but he ended the career of Mick Fitzgerald at the 2nd fence last year.
22/1 Kilbeggan Blade
Kilbeggan Blade is reported to be in fine form, and is given a chance now that the Tom George yard is back in form. Jockey Graham Lee won the 2004 National on board Amberleigh House.
25/1 Irish Invader
Willie Mullins is taking a chance that the pedigree will see Irish Invader throughout the trip, because stamina-wise he only has a 3m novice chase to his name. Perhaps Mullins has been hiding him from the handicapper deliberately, but punters are taking a bit of a risk with this one.
33/1 Snowy Morning
Last year’s 3rd now looks shockingly handicapped at 11st 8lbs given his patchy form this season. Pass.
33/1 Himalayan Trail
Jimmy Mangan won with Monty’s Pass six years ago and Himalayan Trail has a decent shout this year in my opinion. His spin over hurdles at Naas in February is best forgotten because of the ground. Himalayan Trail goes well in warm conditions and on good ground. He has the requisite stamina after winning the Midlands National last year by 22 lengths.
He was 5th in the Becher Chase at Aintree despite bad ground. Barry Geraghty could be on board.
33/1 Maljimar
Still needs a couple to come out, but he could be worth chancing at this stage before the odds tumble. He was last seen to good effect coming 2nd to Wichita Lineman in the William Hill Trophy and has only had 2 runs this season. However he has never raced at Aintree before and his stamina over this trip is unproven.
Cornish Rebel is by the same sire (Un Desperado) and was pulled up halfway in the 2006 National.
1st Reserve.
33/1 Cornish Sett
This blog’s 33/1 each way selection in the Welsh National will be ridden again by Nick Scholfield. He was 12th last year, weakening towards the end, suggesting that the trip is a concern.
33/1 Offshore Account
Capable of a big run – finished 2nd in a handicap hurdle at Navan so could be anything. Check out the market because any support should be noted nearer the time of the race. He jumps and stays and has beaten several in this field before.
Subject to a shrewd gamble this week and I like the fact that David Casey rides.
33/1 Brooklyn Brownie
Will like decent ground and Malcolm Jefferson thinks that Brownie is worth his place in the field. Jefferson’s best chance of a winner at the Aintree meeting comes in the shape of Cape Tribulation in the John Smith’s Mersey Novices’ Hurdle.
40/1 Cloudy Lane
This year’s top weight faces a mammoth task, and disappointed at 7/1 last year, only managing 6th.
50/1 Battlecry
Tom Scudamore rides Battlecry, but only three eight year olds have won in the last 35 years. Pass.
50/1 Silver Birch
If getting into a good jumping rhythm, the 2007 33/1 winner could be a decent bet in running on Betfair. He won’t have any problems with the ground and he won a point to point race in February after recovering from injury. There is a great chance that Silver Birch will complete the course, so rates as a decent wager.
50/1 Priests Leap
Double winner of the Thystes Chase ideally wants heavy ground.
50/1 Mon Mome
Venetia Williams is in form and Mon Mome gets the trip. 10th last year, but never in contention.
50/1 Can’t Buy Time
Jonjo O’Neill thinks that Can’t Buy Time will get the trip and is happy with his jumping.
He look tired up the Cheltenham Hill when last seen 4th to Tricky Trickster, and is a 7 year old.
66/1 Golden Flight
An interesting one for Nicky Henderson but French bred horses have a bad record. His best effort to date was 3rd in the Gras Savoye Grand Steeple-Chase de Paris for Guillaume Macaire.
66/1 Knowhere
A class act on his day, but in his two National runs he has unseated his rider twice. Jumping errors will porbably cost him, but he was in touch until the 25th fence last year. Another to watch the market with.
66/1 Idle Talk
Nibbled at from 100/1, Idle Talk was 14th from 15 finishers last year, but unseated Jason Maguire in 2007. He got round to finish 4th in the 2008 Becher Chase, so I guess that you could make a case for him snatching a place in exceptional circumstances.
80/1 Chelsea Harbour
Has run ten times since finishing a solid 9th in last year’s race, but 11st 8lbs will surely be too much for him to carry to victory this year.
100/1 Stan
Very doubtful that he will stay.
100/1 Zabenz
Given an outside chance going on old form, and could squeak into a place at mammoth odds.
125/1 Eurotrek
This 13 year old won the 2006 Becher but was pulled up when hampered in Silver Birch’s National. Sam Thomas rides for Paul Nicholls so you’d have to give it a slim chance, but Eurotrek is really up against it.
125/1 Ollie Magern
Jockey Sam Waley-Cohen has a good record over the National fences, but this 11 year old needs to dominate, which will be a tough task with 40 runners. Ollie Magern has been unplaced in 3 Aintree starts.
150/1 Fleet Street
Hasn’t won beyond 3 miles.
150/1 Musica Bella
Will be ridden by Philip Carberry for French maestro François Cottin. Bella’s Auteuil form isn’t anything special, but the mare looks well handicapped at 10st 10lbs.
Her 2nd in the Prix la Haye Jousselin suggests that the distance won’t be an issue, and she should handle the big obstacles. A very interesting long shot but the last mare to win was Nickel Coin in 1951.
150/1 Reveillez
JP McManus has never won the National, but he appears to hold a good hand this year. Reveillez is a long shot having made jumping errors on his 2 Cheltenham starts this year, but had some fair form in 2007.
Aintree record: 1 run, 1 win…
200/1 Fundamentalist
Beat Rambling Minster in the 2008 Veteran’s Chase at this course, but fell at the 3rd in last year’s National.
250/1 Kelami
Last win came over hurdles in France in 2006. Poor record in the National: 2008, Unseated rider. 2007, Pulled up. 2004, brought down.
300/1 Arteea
Very hard to fancy on the basis of his last run in the Kim Muir.
600/1 Cerium
Out of his depth in the Gold Cup and would be a shocker for punters.
Recommendation:
1. Darkness 33/1 (William Hill, Stan James etc.)
2. State Of Play 16/1 (Ladbrokes)
3. Musica Bella 100/1 (Totesport, Ladbrokes etc.)
4. Himalayan Trail 33/1 (Corals, Betfred etc.)
Recommended odds correct as of 30 March 2009.
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