Bookies have a rule called ‘palpable error’ which means that if one of their members of staff offer you odds on a an event that are clearly wrong then they have the right to void the bet.

Below is an interesting story from The Times about the caddy of Shane Lowry, the amateur golfer who won this year’s Irish Open. His amateur status meant he wasn’t permitted to pick up the 500,000 euros first prize but it was widely reported that his caddy had a large bet on the amateur at 3000-1.

The Times story tells how, when his brother (who put the bet on for Noel Egan, the caddy) went to pick up his winnings, he was told by bookies Paddy Power that the odds had been wrong and that they would not be paying him out:

Noel Egan grew up with Shane Lowry in Clara. They were best friends from the time kids first make friends. Last week people were asking what Shane is like. He told them all the same thing. “Shane Lowry,” he says, “is the nicest fellow I’ve ever known. Always was, always will be. Has a smile for everyone, just a lovely jolly fellow.” And they ask how he’ll do on the pro tour. “To do well,” says Noel, “he only has to be Shane.”

A few days before the Irish Open, Noel was having a drink in his local, Baggots Back Door in Clara, when a friend of his called and said the Paddy Power bookmakers in Tullamore were going 3000-1 Shane to win at Baltray. Egan genuinely felt Shane could win the Irish Open and though he made only three bets in his life and never staked more than ten euro, he decided to put 50 each way on his best friend.

The difficulty was that when he put his card into the hole in the wall, the response was disappointing. His brother Gerard agreed to loan him the hundred but when Gerard got to the bookies, he rang and said he’d put 25 each way on for him. “Fifty is enough,” said Gerard. “No,” said Noel, “please put on 50 each way.” If the truth is told, Noel Egan had already calculated his winnings, 187,000 euro – enough to set him up for life.

Gerard agreed. And he had 25 each way for a friend, ten each way for another friend and ten each way for himself. On Friday evening after Shane shot 62 and was joint leader going into the weekend, Noel felt the 187 grand was in the bag. He couldn’t help thinking of what he might do with the winnings. He would pay off his ten grand loan at the Credit Union, he would change his nine-year-old car that leaks oil onto the driveway at his parents’ home, he would buy his mum something lovely and he would take Shane shopping.

Then on Monday morning, after the show was over, Noel saw it in a newspaper. A spokesman for the Paddy Power organisation said there had been a mistake, some punters had been given 3000-1 Shane Lowry to win the Irish Open when the price should have been 300-1. They had tried to contact the punters who had been given this “erroneous” price but had not got to all of them. Noel Egan and his brother’s friends hadn’t heard a thing from Paddy Power.

Their dockets said 3000-1. It was the price they had been given. Gerard, a mild-mannered man, spoke with a high-up representative of the bookies. He was told Paddy Power didn’t mind bad publicity and that if the lads took on the might of Paddy Power, they wouldn’t win and might get nothing. Then they were offered 1000-1, and had until the following morning to decide. They then got another call and were told the 1000-1 offer was available for ten minutes and then it would be withdrawn.

Ten minutes to decide, Noel Egan accepted. Even if it was 125 grand short of what he felt entitled to, 62 grand was a lot of money. But that’s not the reason Noel accepted. Rather it was out of loyalty to Shane, the truest friend he’s ever had. “I know what was done to us was wrong. With that ten minutes thing, I feel we were blackmailed. But how could I complain about getting 62 grand when Shane played unbelievable golf to win a tournament worth 500 grand and didn’t get a penny. What kind of ungrateful bastard would I have been to say 62 grand wasn’t enough?”

From: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/sport/golf/article6349967.ece?token=null&offset=36&page=4

This is an interesting case. Paddy Power have to have rules in place that protect them from staff deliberately colluding with customers to cheat them out of winnings. If a horse is 5-1 and the staff member writes 50-1, Paddy Power cannot be realistically expected to pay out at ten times the true odds.

But what price should Shane Lowry have been to win the Irish Open? Certainly 300-1 feels a bit short but 3000-1 would have been ridiculous. The complete outsiders in most golf tournaments are priced around 500-1 but they are usually pros, so 750-1 is probably about the right odds. At 1000-1 Paddy Power have probably erred on the side of generosity but it would be interesting to see some screenshots of Paddy Power’s pre-event markets to see whether they really were going 300-1 before the off or whether the 3000-1 was ever available.

It’s often useful to look back through the pre-season betting to see what value you could have had if your crystal ball had been working at the start of August 2008. Seeing where the winners came from – and what the odds were – often helps clarify betting strategies for future seasons.

It was no great surprise to anyone that the Premiership favourites, Manchester United, won the title again, which was a 6-4 chance at the start of the season. You could have had odds of 12-1 that Manchester United finished top with Liverpool second while the MU-Liverpool-Chelsea tricast was a 18-1 shot, which looks pretty generous now.

Everton were 6-1 to win the ‘without the top four’ market, while in the top six market you could back Everton at 9-4 and Villa at 12-5, which in retrospect look fat prices for something that in retrospect was fairly predictable.

In the relegation market no team that went down was odds-on to be relegated; West Brom could have been backed at 6-5, Middlesborough at 9-1 and Newcastle at 22-1. There is a strong lesson to most punters there – betting the short price teams for the drop in the Premiership is a fast way to go broke. West Brom were 15-2 to finish bottom, which again shows why swerving the obvious choices of Stoke and Hull was the shrewd move.

The same is usually true of the top goalscorer market. Nicolas Anelka won the Golden Boot with 19 goals – he was a 25-1 shot at the start of the season. In second was Cristiano Ronaldo on 18 goals, who was offered at 7-1, which Steven Gerrard’s 16 goals took third place; he was a 66-1 shot pre-season.

Bookies also offer handicap markets in which clubs are given various points starts over Manchester United and Fulham and Stoke topped the tables, depending on which bookie you bet with. In order, the top five were Fulham, Stoke, Liverpool, Manchester United, Hull, Everton, Wigan and West Ham. These markets are almost always won by a team that the bookies expect to be hovering in or around the relegation zone who outperform all expectations.

The Irish send over the first two in the market, but there is value to be had in the French colts. Falco won the French 2000 Guineas last year at 22/1, beating Gololphin’s Rio De La Plata by three lengths.

Naaqoos is the shortest priced French colt, but he was beaten at odds-on last time out. There must be alternatives that can give us a run for our money.

The Betfair market is immature at this stage, and will only really take shape on Sunday morning. Blue Square have been taking antepost bets for a few days.

3/1 Vocalised

Drawn in six, and Jim Bolger’s colt has won four on the trot. His last win only came last Monday in a Group Three at The Curragh, and Cityscape has let down the Greenham Stakes form.

Vocalised is clearly race fit, but makes no appeal at 3/1. Needs better ground, so any rain would be a negative.

Kevin Manning rides, but I just can’t get excited about that price. He should beat Westphalia – match bet anyone?

4/1 Westphalia

The first string for Aidan O’Brien, but Johnny Murtagh did chose the wrong horse in the Chester Vase. Aidan O’Brien has had three of the last ten winners of this race.

Second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Westphalia caught the eye in the Prix de Fontainebleau over course and distance. Beaten only half a length by Silver Frost, but his head-carriage is still a concern.

He could run a big race, but may just find a couple too good for him. At the prices I’d take Silver Frost.

5/1 Naaqoos

Freddie Head saddles both Naaqoos and stable star Marchand D’Or on Sunday.

Naaqoos has won at Longchamp before, but Newmarket has reminded us to treat the juvenile form with caution.

Davy Bonilla will ride Naaqoos, but he was turned over fair and square by Le Havre at Maisons-Laffitte. Naaqoos is working well according to Head, but still makes little appeal at the price. Obvious claims, but questionable form.

5/1 Silver Frost

A cosy winner of the Prix de Fontainebleau, so there is no reason that Westphalia should be a shorter price. His time of 1′39”50 was pretty good and he is clearly one of the leading French hopes for Yves de Nicolay.

6/1 Le Havre

Christophe Lemaire rides for Jean-Claude Rouget, who also has Oiseau De Feu. A quality colt that goes on good ground, he should confirm the form with Naaqoos. Almost tempts me at 6/1.

Rain would be a negative for Le Havre – he managed only seventh in the Critérium International on heavy ground.

His Djebel win came as a bit of a surprise (7.7/1) but it may be that cheekpieces helped him to focus.

7/1 Shaweel

Only fifth in the Greenham – surely Frankie’s best chance of the day is on Fantasia. Godolphin have had a poor start to the turf season, after a stunning record at the Dubai Carnival.

Decent juvenile form with Mark Johnston, but I wouldn’t even back Shaweel at 10/1 on Sunday.

10/1 Oiseau De Feu

Jean-Claude Rouget has never won this race before, but Oiseau De Feu may be the one to break that record. His third in the Prix de Fontainebleau confirmed that he was progressive, finishing very strongly indeed.

The stable also has Tamazirte (7/1) in the 1000 Guineas, who has also matured well over the winter break.

16/1 Zafisio

Non – runner. Zafisio is now with Roger Curtis and has matured well.

Cut in the ground is absolutely vital for Zafisio, who goes for the German Guineas. Will take a lot of beating.

20/1 Handsome Maestro

Olivier Peslier thinks that Handsome Maestro has what it takes to win the 2000 Guineas.

He won the Prix Machado in ‘irresistible’ fashion, beating Desertar by four lengths (see picture).

He could be anything, but the Poule d’Essai des Poulains will be his strongest test yet. His generous price is probably because his two year old form isn’t special. The Aga Kahn-owned Varenar boosted the form of the Prix Machado by winning at Saint-Cloud this week.

A decent each way bet for me.

FRIDAY UPDATE: Blue Square have cut the odds down to 12/1, two hours after I had £20 each way. On Saturday we can expect to see other bookies open a French 2000 Guineas market – Handsome Maestro must still be backed if available around the 16/1 mark.

33/1 Diableside

Can’t see him reversing Prix Djebel form with both Naaqoos and Le Havre.

50/1 Roi Des Sables

Thrashed by Handsome Maestro at Longchamp and hasn’t registered a course win in three attempts. Won a very very weak looking race at Toulouse last month and absolutely no claims.

66/1 Born To Be King

Two and a half lengths behind Intense Focus at Leopardstown last time out, but will need to improve vastly to have any say in this. 

200/1 Coat Of Arms

By Danehill Dancer but only lost his maiden tag this week. No chance! (We said the same about the 100/1 Kentucky Derby winner)

Recommendation:

5pts win @ 20/1 Handsome Maestro (Blue Square)

bookies.com is your best bet for comparing international horse racing odds:

Poule d’Essai des Poulains (2000 Guineas) Betting

Poule d’Essai des Pouliches (1000 Guineas) Betting

Melbourne Cup Betting

Ascot Gold Cup Betting

The seven furlong Totesport Victoria Cup will be run this Saturday at 2.15pm. BBC2 will be showing the Ascot meeting, which includes the Listed John Doyle Buckhounds Stakes.

Better still, if you can hop on the short train to Ascot, general admission is only £15 and you can join in the Festival of Wine for only a fiver.

The race serves as an introduction to this season’s top handicappers, and usually brings together a mix of sprinters and milers.

The weather will be sunny and the going should be good to firm.

The last two winners have come from stall 14, but this year Beaver Patrol carries top weight.

In the last five years, 14/1 Wise Dennis was the biggest price winner in 2007. Let’s take a look at the market leaders:

6/1 Prescription

Seb Sanders rides the likely favourite for Sir Mark Prescott, in the colours of the Cheveley Park Stud.

Fillies don’t have a great record in this race and she was turned over at 4/7 in September. The daughter of Pivotal is drawn in 18 and has shot up in the ratings. She may have wintered well, but I’m very keen to take on this favourite.

NON RUNNER. A shame we couldn’t take her on.

8/1 Evens And Odds

Dandy Nicholls is another trainer in form, but Evens and Odds has never won at Ascot before. He won a handicap over six furlongs at HQ, but the handicapper has been a bit harsh. Up 6lbs and I’d expect that to be too much. 

12/1 Zaahid

Last year’s winning 5/1 joint favourite won’t have the benefit of Richard Hills (pictured), but the five years olds cannot be ruled out according to the stats. I don’t need to tell readers that trainer Barry Hills is in form, because we said the same last week, before he took the 1000 Guineas and Chester Cup.

Zaahid finished second in this year’s Lincoln, but looks exposed near the top of the handicap.

16/1 Trafalgar Bay

Won at this course over a mile last month, also drawn low. He has been penalised for that success, but he has twice won at the course before. His seven furlong record isn’t great, but he has a 5lb claimer on board.

14/1 We’ll Come

Fourth in last year’s race from a similar stall. He travelled well that day and hit 2/1 in-running on the exchanges. He has only won once in 16 career starts, but he should make the frame off a good weight.

16/1 Blue Sky Basin

The talented Ahmed Ajtebi claims 3lb, but Godolphin only have a 12% strike rate this year in the UK.

20/1 Fishforcompliments

Finds winning difficult but ran a blinder to finish second to Mister Hardy at 18/1 on his reappearance. Seven furlongs is probably too sharp for him, but at the weights he looks to hold a good each-way chance.

Freddie Tylicki carries our money and he is more than capable.

In 1999, Great News won this with a 5lb claimer on board – Adrian Nicholls.

FRIDAY UPDATE: Fishforcompliments is now a 16/1 chance, having had the Newcastle form boosted by Mister Hardy at the Chester May Meeting. Still a generous price.

20/1 Giganticus

Another one for Barry Hills, but was disappointing last time out.

16/1 Arabian Spirit

The consistent son of Oasis Dream has done well on the all-weather, but will probably find seven furlongs on the sharp side.

16/1 Mr Macattack

Very unexposed but has only run on the turf once before. He has won three times over seven furlongs but should be outclassed on Saturday.

Recommendation:

5pts each way @ 20/1 Fishforcompliments (Victor Chandler, 1/4 odds, 4 places)

Prices correct as of 7 May 2009.

bookies.com is the best place to compare antepost horse racing odds:

Totesport Victoria Cup Betting

John Doyle Buckhounds Stakes Betting

Saturday’s Ascot Card Odds

Epsom Oaks Betting

Epsom Derby Betting

Guernsey welcomed Grand National winning jockey Liam Treadwell for its fifth renewal of the Bank Holiday meeting, held at L’Ancresse.

Racing at L’Ancresse used to consist of a piece of rope and a couple of flags, but the Guernsey Race Club now uses the old running rails from Ascot. The right-handed track has a run-in of only one furlong and is a golf course for every other day of the year.

Since Paul Blockley saddled a double a year ago, the camber has changed on the Rock Turn and the course now boasts a photo finish.

The high profile booking of Liam Treadwell and pleasant weather conditions ensured an attendance of almost four thousand, all of whom were treated to a brilliant day of racing.

The ambulance arrived just in time for the opening race, a six furlong handicap. The favourite, Goodbye Cash, was determined in the final furlong, and completed the first leg of a quick double for jockey John England.

Treadwell’s first of two rides came in the following race on the locally trained Garden Party, who is owned by the President of the Guernsey Race Club, Ruth Bougourd. The gelding was well backed by those who had seen him work on the beach, but finished well held in third. Wahoo Sam made the running and won comfortably for the same connections of the previous winner.

The Vice President, Jim Jamouneau, provided Treadwell with his second mount of the day, in the shape of Slickdalay. He was bought on the day of declarations, despite coming back from Chepstow with an injury.

Jamouneau oversees the Crown and Anchor stand, and it was hardly surprising to see his horse get backed into favouritism for the feature race, a handicap over two miles and one furlong.

The Grand National winning jockey was hard at work three furlongs out, but Slickdalay finished well beaten in last. Mattie Batchelor is often seen riding in the Channel Islands, and he took the valuable race on Royal Prodigy for trainer Ron Hodges.            

Trevor Gallienne was seen doing his bit to help out in the morning – clearing dog excrement off the course. As well as being one of the four on-course bookmakers, Trevor is unique in that he also owns the David Evans trained Penang Cinta.

Trevor opened up 5/2 about Penang Cinta, but was forced to cut the price after the first twenty three bets came in for his horse.

Penang Cinta then shrugged off a losing streak to record an impressive victory under David England, to cap off a 14/1 treble on the card for David Evans. Evans was represented at L’Ancresse by his son Tony, and has three of his four Guernsey raiders for sale.

Penang Cinta can take a handicap in the UK soon, and must be backed at any price to do so on his next start. The handicapper will take no notice of the Guernsey form and the win may boost his confidence.

Liam Treadwell praised the ‘lovely relaxed atmosphere’ and even though he wasn’t seen in the temporary winners’ enclosure, he insisted that he would be back again, whether riding or not.

Much to the delight of the locals, he willingly signed racecards and posed for photographs before the last race. Treadwell still has his feet firmly on the ground a month on from Aintree and is revelling in his celebrity status.

Clerk Of The Course Thady Griffith is delighted to be able to bring the racing to the people of Guernsey, who don’t benefit from the same number of meetings as Jersey.

Lord Of The Wing restored Jersey’s pride by winning the fifth and final race of the day for Joan Le Brocq. The 3/1 shot rallied well under pressure to beat Roger Curtis’ Mucho Loco by two lengths.

The Players Championship may not have major status, but it is still one of the betting highlights of the golfing year. This week we also have the Italian Open and the Michelob Ultra Open, but all eyes will be on Tiger Woods at Sawgrass.

The Final Round is on Mothers’ Day, and Stan James go 5/2 about another playoff.

Tiger Woods has a shocking record at Sawgrass, but is still the 4/1 favourite. Since he won in 2001, he has not finished in the top ten in six appearances. Admittedly he has finished in the top ten in the last four tournament, but with that record he is probably a place lay (bet that he doesn’t make the top ten). 

Laying at 1.51 on Betfair, you are getting odds of 2/1 that Tiger doesn’t finish in the top ten.

Boylesports, Stan James and Paddy Power are all paying six places, meaning that we can find options at bigger prices.

Sergio Garcia beat Paul Goydos in a playoff last year, but can still be backed at 40/1. His last top ten finish came in January and he clearly isn’t at the top of his game.

2007 winner Phil Mickelson has been nibbled at 11/1, and is an obvious alternative to the favourite. He could even become the new Number One this weekend. His playing style suits the course because it demands a mixture of shots.

Kenny Perry will also have his backers at 35/1, but is in danger of another meltdown. His Masters conqueror, Angel Cabrera, has missed four consecutive cuts here and is a huge 125/1.

The End of Round One Leader is anyone’s guess, but the Top American market is another one to oppose Woods in at 3/1.

Luke Donald has been backed into 40/1, and Brian Gay has also attracted money at 80s.

Jeff Klauk is an interesting bet at 150/1. The rookie grew up at TPC Sawgrass and should know the course very well indeed.

Anthony Kim is too erratic at 50/1, but Bubba Watson makes more appeal at 125/1, given that he tied for second at Quail Hollow.

bookies.com is your best bet for comparing golf odds between the bookmakers:

The Players Championship 2009 Winner Betting

The Players Championship 2009 Tournament Match Bets

The Players Championship 2009 Place Betting Top 10

The Players Championship 2009 Round Betting

Italian Open Betting

Michelob Ultra Open Betting

Tonight’s Arsenal v Man U match looks too tight to call, with the draw being backed into 23/10. Manchester are 2/7 to qualify for the final, but the value must lie with Arsenal at 3/1 in a tie that could go either way.

Tonight’s card at Peterborough is live on Sky Sports 2, with the feature race off at 9:45pm.

3/1 Barnfield Rocky

Should be sent off the favourite and can be forgiven his third to Freedom Obama in Heat 6. At the odds I prefer Droopys Alvaro, but he can at least withstand the charge of Westmead Grant at 4/6 with Sky Bet.

5/1 Westmead Carl

Couldn’t land a blow in the semi-final, despite being drawn in Trap 1.

10/3 Droopys Alvaro

Bet365 have recently cut their 7/2 about Droopys Alvaro, but Skybet are taking him on at 10/3. The local runner will probably be sent off at shorter odds, so get your money on now. The draw isn’t a concern but he’ll need to break quickly.

Sharon Sabreton will have him primed for a big run and you shouldn’t read into the face that Mountjoy Jasper’s semi final win came in a marginally quicker time.

5/1 Mountjoy Jasper

Beat Freedom Obama by eight lengths on his semi-final, but surely he won’t be able to make all of the running from Trap 4. Passed over, but could run into second place.

16/1 Freedom Obama

No form to suggest that he even has an each-way chance. Rank outsider.

7/2 Westmead Grant

Beat Droopys Alvaro by a head in Heat 3, but will find it difficult breaking from Trap 6. Barnfield Rocky should confirm the semi-final form, when the two dogs broke from the same traps as tonight.

Well bred, out of Mega Delight.

Recommendation:

2pts win @ 3/1 Droopys Alvaro (Stan James, Victor Chandler, Bet365)

bookies.com also compares antepost greyhound racing odds:

• 2009 Greyhound Derby Betting
• Skybet Peterborough Puppy Derby Final Betting
• 5 May Peterborough Card

What a weekend of racing! Admittedly the only Kentucky Derby challenger that we fully wrote off was 100/1 Mine That Bird, but we did tip you the 2000 Guineas winner Sea The Stars, albeit in the wrong market.

Let’s just hope that John Oxx takes his chance in the Irish 2000 Guineas before he wins the Derby, because 20/1 will be a very attractive price indeed.

In the 1000 Guineas, Rainbow View was a massive dissapointment but we tipped the second, 12/1 Cuis Ghaire. Perhaps our lovely picture of Richard Hills persuaded you to get on 20/1 Ghanaati.

The ‘Big Four’ all won this weekend for the fourth time in a row, but the accumulator still paid out a generous 6/1 with Victor Chandler.

Liverpool obliged against Newcastle (3-0) to maintain the pressure on Manchester United, but they can still be backed at 9/1 with Sky Bet for the title.

The relegation betting looks a lot tighter, but even 1/100 West Brom still have an outside chance at survival if they win their remaining fixtures.

Before Hull take on Aston Villa tonight, the bottom end of the table looks like this:

Middlesbrough can be backed at 1/4, but are far from certainties. They have been in woeful form, and haven’t scored in the last three games. Having said that, a victory against Newcastle on May 11 would be a great help for Gareth Southgate’s side. Their other two fixtures are perfectly winnable.

The bookies also expect to see Alan Shearer’s Newcastle get sent down a division at 1/2. The Magpies lack confidence and Joey Barton’s red card comes just at the wrong time. His season must surely be over. They have only scored once in the last five games.

Blackburn look safe at 33/1, but I think that 15/8 Hull City could soon find themselves in deep trouble.

Hull have lost their last three and finish at home to Man U at the end of the season. They should lose at Villa Park tonight (4/7) and have a shocking record away to Bolton.

To their credit they did very well to stay up in the Championship two seasons ago.

10/3 Sunderland have tricky fixtures, but have the bonus of a four point cushion.

Fulham are 9/4 favourites to grab the last available European spot.

Remember to scan the markets available on bookies.com before placing a bet:

Premier League Winner Betting

Relegation 08/09 Odds

3/1 morning favourite I Want Revenge has been scratched from the Derby following a minor ankle injury. Jeff Mullins said of his colt, ”the biggest dream is to get here and the biggest nightmare is to get to raceday and have to scratch.”

The betting has now been dramatically altered, with Dunkirk and Friesan Fire the 4/1 co-favourites with the bookies. We think that both will run big races, but preference is for Friesan Fire, who is proven over sloppy going.

He can still be backed with Victor Chandler at 7/1, who haven’t caught wind of the latest news from Churchill Downs.

Every other horse has been shortened, with our outside tip West Side Bernie into 33s from 40/1.

bookies.com is your best bet for comparing international horse racing odds:

Kentucky Derby Betting

Derby Favourite I WANT REVENGE can be backed at 7/2 with Blue Square this morning. He clearly won’t go off as short as last night’s impressive Oaks winner, 3/10 Rachel Alexandra!

Friesan Fire is still 7/1 with Victor Chandler, but has been cut to 5s with other firms. The colt has form over the wet surface.

Hold Me Back is another mover, 25/1 from 33s, but Godolphin’s Desert Party has attracted even more financial support, and is now 16/1. Punters will be hoping that he can reverse the Dubai form with Alan Garcia’s Regal Ransom.

bookies.com is your best bet for comparing international horse racing odds:

Kentucky Derby Betting

Melbourne Cup Betting

Ascot Gold Cup Betting