Bookies Blog

The first legs of the last 16 match ups have been played and it already looks like some teams have won their place in the quarters. Unfortunately for Celtic, who really braved it out at Celtic Park, Barcelona are 1/500 favourites with Bet 365 to qualify from the tie. Most teams would be feeling pretty secure with a two nil lead going into the second leg but Liverpool on current form surely can’t be ruled as a cert.

Meanwhile, in the rest of Europe there is some serious fighting to be done. The betting suggests that for Arsenal, the most likely outcome will be a stalemate, with both the 1-1 and 0-0 score lines being offered at 5/1. Arsenal are 10/1 to win the game 1-0 and are out 25/1 to win 2-0. You can see why the odds on Arsenal are so long, they are on a poor run of form, epitomised by their desperate display at the emirates on Saturday and playing Milan at the San Siro is tough enough when you are on top form. With their current form and the daunting prospect of playing Milan at the San Siro Arsenal look as if they have an uphill battle on their hands.

For United and Chelsea the going is a little easier, they are playing their second legs at home and are not facing particularly strong teams. Therefore they both have odds of 3/10 and 4/5 respectively neither of which really look like offering much value.

In the less high profile games, Porto host Schalke and Sevilla host Fernebahche and in both cases the home team are going into the second legs a goal down. However, despite Fenerbahce’s goal advantage brought from the first leg Sevilla are odds on favourites to both win the game and to qualify. Sevilla have been strong at home this season and it does look as if Fenerbahce are going to have difficulty qualifying. This is a symptom of European competitions, the home advantage is far greater than in domestic competitions and many teams have thrown away their chances of qualification by playing poorly at home.

Its tough to find some value in these latter stages, teams like Real Madrid who are a goal down are still odds on to qualify. However, for me I feel that the best bet is on Celtic qualifying, the odds are very long at 33/1 on betfair and I’m not denying that it will be a massive struggle, but Celtic have shown that they have the ability to score against the Spanish giants. Celtic got the result on Saturday, beating Hibs 2-0 away from home whilst Barca received a 4-2 drubbing from Atletico Madrid and who’s to say that either of those results might not repeat themselves?

Why not check out our Champions League Winners Market or even the Match Index.