Once again Chelsea have laid off a superb manager in pursuit of an even better one. Whether or not Avram Grant should have been fired is neither here nor there, although it really does make you wonder why anyone would ever support Chelsea. What is important, however, is ascertaining which manager will fill the dreaded position and what price to back them at.
The back page of the Racing post this morning reported how Mancini had become clear favourite for the position after finally announcing his official departure from Inter Milan. However, this seems to have been a rash public movement and does not take into account the fact that Mancini had pretty much jumped the San Siro ship well before our friend Grant got the boot.
So despite being backed into 5/4 yesterday morning he can now be backed a far more reasonable 5/2 with Centrebet. It’s a similar price to the one currently chalked up on Betfair at present, and if Betfair’s anything to go by then 5/2 isn’t particularly good value, let alone the measly 6/4 currently offered by Totesport and Victor Chandler.
However, rather than looking at what is bad value, it seems to me to be far more productive to look at what is good value. At a first glance, it looks as if Ancelotti has shortened up greatly today and he is priced up at around 9/1. In fact, the only bookie with the old price left is Ladbrokes who have him at a very large 14/1. He is currently just below 10/1 on betfair and therefore looks pretty solid value. One, however, should be wary, Ladbrokes often have extremely good inside information and may know something the other bookmakers do not. Still, if you are going to have a punt then it seems to me this is the one you should have.
In markets like this it is always important to follow the clever money, although following Mancini yesterday may not have been too wise, the occasional bit of research helps a bit as well. So, make sure you keep watching which managers are being pushed out and which ones are shortening. Click here to see how the prices are moving now.
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