2010 Stan James 2000 Guineas Betting Preview

Last weekend the flat racing season picked up with the impressive reappearance of Paco Boy at Sandown Park, but there are plenty of punters like myself who prefer to hold back until the Stan James Guineas weekend at Newmarket. The first two classics of the season should throw up plenty of pointers to the season ahead, and many flat racing fans will want to know just how good St Nicholas Abbey really is.

Sea The Stars won the 2000 Guineas cosily at odds of 8/1 last year for John Oxx, but perhaps it is unwise to expect another superstar to emerge this season.

Superstar or no superstar, there is still a winner to be found amongst this bunch of colts.

5/4 St Nicholas Abbey

This son of Montjeu has been the subject of much speculation over the winter, and plenty of punters are already on St Nicholas Abbey at 2/1. Johnny Murtagh’s mount won the Racing Post Trophy in sparkling fashion, but the press are getting carried away with that win.

He could be a Sea The Stars, but 5/4 is my idea of a lousy price in the 2000 Guineas.

High Top was the last horse to do the Doncaster-Newmarket double, back in 1972. That is becase the Racing Post Trophy is normally run on soft ground, so is more suited for stayers.

He could win this race easily, but given what we know, fans should instead back him to win the Epsom Derby at 2/1. But even that price is too skinny for me!

7/1 Elusive Pimpernel

Won the Craven Stakes with a good turn of foot, but at 5/1, I feel the value has gone with him. He was destroyed by St Nicholas Abbey in the Racing Post Trophy, but perhaps the soft ground was against him. Course form at Newmarket is a bonus.

10/1 Canford Cliffs

Has smart form as a two year old, but flopped in the Greenham Stakes at 10/11. Perhaps a change of tactics could work, but he looks all speed. Could land a big sprint later on in the season for Richard Hannon. Has been subject of good reports since his shock defeat.

11/1 Awzaan

Has won his four races to date, but they were all over a six furlong trip. He settles well in his races, which means that he is bound to trade shorter in running on the betting exchanges. He doesn’t have the scope to improve later on in the season, so this is his day.

A recommended each-way wager, and the stable is confident.

20/1 Al Zir

Frankie Dettori’s mount has been backed this week, but I feel that Al Zir will be seen to better effect over further than one mile this season. He wouldn’t want the ground too fast, and is one for the future.

22/1 Inler

Harry Findlay’s Inler is a good-looking horse, that was given a gallop at the Craven meeting. Won a Newmarket maiden last October in comfortable fashion, and won’t be inconvenienced by fast ground. Trainer is well-known for the sprinter Kingsgate Native.

18/1 Fencing Master

Looks terrific value, and I guess that is because punters are getting carried away with his stablemate.

Remember that in 2002, Rock Of Gibraltar was the ‘second string’. Fencing Master is well bred, but doesn’t work brilliantly on the gallops.

Was unlucky in the Dewhurst Stakes (beaten a neck) and is worth keeping an eye on.

18/1 Xtension

Third in the Dewhurst, and Xtension could be another that’s escaped under the betting radar of punters. He has grown over the winter, and is not a 18/1 shot.

20/1 Dick Turpin

Won the Greenham against the odds, and goes on any ground. Trainer Richard Hannon knows that softer ground could be to the disadvantage of rivals, so it may be wise to wait for either the Irish or the French 2000 Guineas with Dick Turpin, as the going at Newmarket will be fast.

25/1 Hearts Of Fire

Trainer Pat Eddery has won the 2000 Guineas three times as a jockey. Hearts Of Fire won a Group 3 event at Baden-Baden and then won the Grand Criterium in Italy. The form of the latter race has worked out well, as Vale Of York went on to win the Breeders Cup Juvenile for the Godolphin team.

Stephane Pasquier rides.

40/1 Makfi

This son of Dubawi won the Prix Djebel at Maisons-Lafitte, the same race that Le Harve won last year. Makfi also has the option of the French 2000 Guineas at Longchamp.

50/1 Fair Trade

Only has a Newbury maiden win to his name.

50/1 Poet’s Voice

Fourth in the Middle Park Stakes at 15/8, but won a Group 2 at Doncaster before that.

66/1 Red Jazz

Barry Hills trained the winner of the 1000 Guineas last year, but a mile may not be the ideal trip for Red Jazz.

66/1 Viscount Nelson

Very well bred, by Giants Causeway and out of an Oaks winner. Was as short as 20/1 for this race, but Johnny Murtagh abandoned him for Black Quartz in the 2000 Guineas Trial at Leopardstown. This horse finished second in that race.

Kieren Fallon rides Viscount Nelson, but I prefer the chances of Fencing Master.