King George VI Chase Betting Preview
The Stan James King George VI Chase takes place at 2.40 on Boxing Day at Kempton Park, and will be televised on Channel 4. It is by far the best chase to take place before the Cheltenham Gold Cup, also run over 3m. I was contemplating whether to back War of Attrition each way at 20/1, but he will now go for the Lexus Chase. Stan James are currently the only firm to offer Non-Runner no bet at this stage whilst the market is still antepost.
11/8 Kauto Star
Kauto was odds-on to win his 3rd King George before he slipped up in the Betfair Chase, but drifted to a general 6/4. Kauto is now best priced at 11/8 to win the race, as punters simply cannot oppose a horse with Cheltenham Gold Cups in the bag. Champion trainer Paul Nicholls has been luke-warm as of late, and his double on Saturday was eclipsed by Nicky Henderson‘s big race 103/1 treble. Henderson won about £250k in prize money, meaning that some firms are opening books on the Champion Trainer market.
Don’t get me wrong, I love Kauto Star, but 11/8 is a bit short for a horse who has lost 3 out of his last 4. He has been turned over by Our Vic and Snoopy Loopy in this field, and Tamarinbleu travelled so well at Haydock that he asked questions of Sam Thomas early on.
Ruby Walsh is the man in the saddle this time, who knows Kauto’s quirks much better, and is capable of handling the big race pressure. Nicholls won’t campaign Kauto Star at Haydock again, because he doesn’t like the new chase track. Kempton Park suits Kauto much better, because the emphasis is on speed.
4/1 Voy Por Ustedes
Very talented but question marks over whether he will stay the 3m for Alan King. If he does to good effect, expect to see him leap to the fore of the Gold Cup market. I say that because ‘Voy Por’ is very classy and even beat Master Minded at Aintree. Choc Thornton is one of my favourite jockeys and I am tempted to let him carry my money for this one, after he appeared to like the 2m4f at Aintree that day. One to consider.
8/1 Air Force One
Has been well supported from 12s recently, probably because the ground and track will suit him. I’m reluctantly leaving him out of calculations, because I don’t feel he has the quality required to win at this level. He was 2nd in the Hennessy, finishing in front of Snoopy Loopy. Trainer Charlie Mann regards him highly and will be hoping for a big run.
9/1 Imperial Commander
This represents a massive step up in class for Imperial Commander, and we would’ve known more about him if the Boylesports Gold Cup hadn’t been abandoned. His last run was the win in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, after which many thought he was a potential superstar. The form has been well advertised by Barber’s Shop, but the form of the Twiston-Davies yard is a slight concern. NTD has had only 1 winner from 43 runners, meaning that Imperial Commander has drifted out from 7s. I’d rather look elsewhere for a horse with proven class at the top level.
10/1 Our Vic
Has been supported into 10s from a high of 30/1, mainly after trainer Pipe has reported that he has been in blistering form and has schooled well with Grand National winning jockey Timmy Murphy. The Pipe yard is now on the cold list, but they have a knack for taking these big races. Our Vic’s last season reads 2211 and I would rather back him than Imperial Commander or Air Force One, who aren’t proven at this level. Perhaps Our Vic wants less than 3m but he was 2nd in the race last season. According to the lad who rides him out, he is ‘better than ever’
21/1 Tamarinbleu
Ran very well fresh in the Betfair Chase, only to be done on the line by Snoopy Loopy, who ate up the ground. I love a front-runner and I think that Pricewise antepost selection (at 20/1) will give a good account for himself around Kempton. He travelled much better than Kauto Star in his last race, and I fancy that he’ll turn the tables on Snoopy Loopy after his break since the November race.
22/1 Snoopy Loopy
According to Peter Bowen he has been schooling well and he was supplemented for the race at a cost of £10,000. His record of consistently placing (or better) at the highest level makes Snoopy a terrific each way bet. When will the bookies take note? He was weak in the betting for the Peterborough Chase, in which he finished 2nd to Monet’s Garden at 9/1 over a trip which was too sharp for him. For a horse that keeps improving, the price is insulting. Oppose at your peril.
50/1 Albertas Run
We tipped Tony McCoy’s Albertas Run for the Henessy last month, but he was pulled up on a day when McCoy scored a four-timer. Jonjo O’Neill has said that key to his run is the ground, which was unsuitable last time. If he gets the good ground that is forecast, he could run a very big race indeed.
53/1 Briareus
One for the Balding team, he is a huge horse but a decent jumper. He won at Kempton over 2m in a Class 2 Chase, but connections are confident that he will stay the 3m. With decent form in the book that price looks a bit big to me, although I agree that others are more appealing.
61/1 Exotic Dancer
Is 5/1 for the Lexus Chase; this is a horse that is extremely profitable to oppose. We advised a place lay in the Betfair Chase but be warned, the Lexus doesn’t look as strong this year.
1000/1 Mont Misere
Pulled up at Huntingdon and very easy to discount.
Recommendation:
I’d rather just watch this intriguing race, but if pressed for a selection, I’d go for Our Vic, each way. That said I’ll still be supporting Kauto Star.
1pt each way @ 10/1 Our Vic
Leave a Comment
