Bookies Blog

The Grade 2 Cleeve Hurdle takes pace at Cheltenham on Saturday, and is a good form guide ahead of the World Hurdle in March. The race is off at 3.45pm and will be televised on Channel 4.

Nicky Henderson‘s Punchestowns is currently an 11/10 with Ladbrokes and will be sent off as favourite. In a slog over 3 miles on soft ground, the alarm bells are already ringing. He is a chasing type, who as form over the course and predicted going. With an odds-on favourite, you are always looking for an each way selection to fill in the places, and maybe give the jolly a scare. If Punchestowns does win, his 2/1 quote for the World Hurdle will be long gone.

4/1 Big Buck’s has emerged as a surprise contender over timber this year, because he was meant to be aimed at the Gold Cup. His jumping let him down in the Hennessy, but he won on his British hurdling debut at Cheltenham in handicap company. It remains to be seen just how good he is, but with Ruby Walsh on board, he has to be consdered.

There has been money for Blazing Bailey, now 7/1 from 10/1. He has had the misfortune to run into the great Inglis Drever several times, but may do better with the blinkers back on. He has been erratic but still retains his talent deep down.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see some money for 8/1 Fair Along. He has a brilliant record around Cheltenham, and will be ridden by the the under-rated Richard Johnson instead of the claimer Rhys Flint.

All of the above horses are exceptional but I’m still looking elsewhere for my bet. 20/1 Lough Derg is a game front-runner who completed back to back wins last weekend at Ascot. He has Cheltenham form and has the stamina to cope with the going and trip. David Pipe isn’t sure if he’ll be ready in time, so he could be declared a non-runner. Still, I’m on at 35/1 on Betfair and will cross my fingers that he runs.

I can see 25/1 No Refuge running a big race, but the bet of the weekend for me is PETTIFOUR at 33s. Nigel Twiston-Davies has had a mixed season, but still has a good 17% strike rate over timber. The trainer’s form means we are getting a brilliant price on a horse who deserves more attention. He was 5th to Punchestowns at Ascot last time out, but that can be excused after he made a mistake at the first. Perhaps he takes time to be wound up, as his January/February form reads: 11. He will be suited be the course and should relish a strong pace set by Lough Derg.

Recommendation:

3pts each way @ 33/1 Pettifour [Bluesq, 1/5 odds 1,2,3]

1/2pt win @ 25/1 Lough Derg [Ladbrokes]

bookies.com compares odds between bookmakers for antepost horse racing:

Cleeve Hurdle Betting

World Hurdle Betting

Letheby and Christopher Chase Betting

(Mudlover NOZIC looks a great bet at 11/2, William Hill)

Cheltenham Festival 2009 Betting