Antepost Horse Racing bets as the Flat Season draws to a close
The ground is softening, the number of jumps meetings are increasing, we’ve had the Arc - must mean that the curtain is coming down on a memorable Flat Season. Although we still have the Cesarewitch and Racing Post Trophy to look forward to at the end of the month, punters’ attention turn towards the Breeders’ Cup and Guineas markets.
In the 1000 Guineas, Cuis Ghaire was popular after her Royal Ascot success, but has since disappointed. Meanwhile, many have latched onto Rainbow View, the 11/4 favourite. Sunday’s Prix Marcel Boussac winner, Proportional, is next in the betting at 8/1. She has eight national Derby winners within the first four generations of her pedigree, meaning she will probably get 1m4f. I imagine that she will will star in the Prix de Diane, much like Zarkava, whilst 14/1 isn’t a bad price for Epsom Oaks.
As for the colts, it’s all about 9/2 Rip Van Winkle. Another short price offering little antepost value, it’s difficult to find anything in opposition. 12/1 Mastercraftsman was hugely disappointing at Longchamp, turned over by Naaqoos. It has been suggested that the latter’s galloping action would suit Newmarket, but there is a risk that Freddie Head opts for the French 2,000 Guineas. If he does turn up, he will be much shorter than the current price, 14/1.
The battle to be Champion Apprentice is hotting up between David Probert and William Buick. Both are attached to trainer Andrew Balding, and are good friends. Probert is 1/4 with Coral, which is too short to have a bet on, as it is likely to go down to the wire.
The best price available for favourite Septimus in the Melbourne Cup is 13/2. Johnny Murtagh has won three out of four times on the mount, and is set for the ride in Australia. The last Group One win came in the Irish St Leger, which was a poor contest, equivalent to listed company. There are signs that the Ballydoyle team are petering out after a strenuous season, as Duke of Marmalade, Yeats and Henrythenavigator have all been comfortably beaten within the last month. O’Brien needs 4 more Group One winners just to equal Bobby Frankel’s record of 25 - William Hill are offering evens that he doesn’t reach 26.
Let’s take on the Melborune Cup favourite with the Luca Cumani trained Mad Rush.He doesn’t have the typical profile of a stayer: athletic, agile and a cracking turn of foot. Jockey Damien Olvier rode Purple Moon to second in last year’s edition, so let’s hope that he can go one better.
O’Brien’s other Group One hopes include Duke of Marmalde and Soldier of Fortune in the Breeder’s Cup Turf. The Duke is showing effects of tiredness, and cannot be backed at 4/1 in the Breeders’ Cup Turf given that he may opt for the Classic. This blog loves each way value, and there is some to be found in the form of 12/1 Winchester. Dermot Weld has a good overseas record, and the horse picked up the Secretariat Stakes at Arlington in August.
Recommendation:
10pts Evens Aidan O’Brien NOT to have 26 or more Group One winners in 2008
1pt ew 16/1 Mad Rush in the Melbourne Cup
1pt ew 12/1 Winchester in the Breeders’ Cup Turf
1pt ew 14/1 Proportional in the Epsom Oaks
bookies.com compares the odds on a wide range of antepost horse racing markets, including the Cheltenham Festival.
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November 3rd, 2008 at 11:54 am
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