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22 runners go to post in Saturday’s 1m William Hill Lincoln Handicap, the curtain-raiser to the flat season.

Being a handicap with 16 runners or more, the bookies are paying 4 places at 1/4 the win odds. All the antepost betting has revolved around 4/1 Expresso Star, who has won his last 3 starts.

John Gosden will inspect the ground, and will make a late decision whether or not to chance the favourite on the quick surface. The going should be good to firm, and there shouldn’t any significant rain before the race.

The gamble on Expresso Star was ignited by a Newmarket gallop, forcing the bookies to run for cover from 10/1.

With doubts even over the favourite’s participation, there must surely be some each way value out there.

In the last 9 runnings of the race, only Babodana (2004) has carried more than 9 stone to victory. To make our job easier then, let’s discount 33/1 Lady Deauville, 25/1 Blythe Knight, 8/1 Swop, 33/1 Eva’s Request, 16/1 Don’t Panic, 25/1 Docofthebay and 20/1 Mia’s Boy.

In the last 10 years, only Zucchero and Blythe Knight were the only 6 year old winners. Discount 50/1 Royal Power, 40/1 European Dream, 12/1 Flipando, 33/1 Ace Of Hearts, 50/1 Bolodenka and 16/1 Benandonner.

Of course, if you take the statistical approach, you wouldn’t have found last year’s Cesarewitch winner, 50/1 Caracciola. However, it does make our job easier!

The following are left:

25/1 Whistledownwind wears a visor for Jeremy Noseda, but will want it softer.

11/1 Huzzah has been well supported in the bettting but may want cut in the ground. Drawn in 17, he should get towed along with the pace.

40/1 Dream Lodge was 21st out of 21 in the Spring Mile last year and is overlooked.

50/1 Philario has form behind Premio Loco at Kempton which reads well. Apprentice jockey Martin Lane is good value for his 5lb claim meaning Philario has a place chance.

50/1 Cobo Bay is a front-runner who won first time out last year.

9/1 Charm School is from the same yard as the favourite, but could well beat him from a higher draw. He finished 3rd in a 7f handicap at Doncaster in November, despite not getting a clear run.

14/1 Zaahid has been nibbled at in the betting and will be ridden by Robert Winston. He is drawn in 2, but the pace may be with the higher numbers.

20/1 Titan Triumph has 5 wins from his last 6 starts, but they have all been run on the all-weather.

Conclusion:

A tricky contest to start the flat season, but it may be worth taking a chance with Philario, who is 50/1 with Stan James.

1pt each way @ 50/1 Philario (Stan James, 1-2-3-4, 1/4 odds)

bookies.com is your best bet for comparing Doncaster odds:

Spring Mile Betting

Cammidge Trophy Betting

William Hill Lincoln Handicap Betting