2009 Scottish Grand National Betting Preview

21 runners go to post in today’s Scottish Grand National at Ayr. The 4m Grade 3 handicap is on Channel 4 at 3.25pm, on the same day as a tricky Newbury flat card.

Let’s take a look at the runners and riders – hopefully we’ll be able to unearth a huge priced winner!

Iris De Balme won last year at 66/1, and the way things are going (33/1 Niche Market, 100/1 Mon Mome), you cannot afford to discount the outsiders.

The statistics aren’t hugely revealing, although it may be worth noting that Ferdy Murphy has trained three Scottish National winners in the last decade. He saddles 8/1 Nine De Sivola today.

Good ground is forecast, so tread with caution if you fancy a mud-lark.

Interestingly enough, none of the runners were bred in Britain.

Finally, Betinternet is the only betting firm paying out on the first five places.

20/1 Dear Villez (FR)

Harry Skelton is clearly a jockey to keep a close eye on. He comes into the race having beaten the likes of Ruby Walsh in Monday’s Irish National.

Dear Villez has a touch of class (2008 Munster National), but is difficult to back now that the gelding has shot up the ratings.

9/1 Tricky Trickster (IRE)

Sam Waley-Cohen is another jockey for the future, who claims 7lbs today. No six year old has won in the last decade, but the gelding showed at the Festival that he is a talented stayer. Could place.

14/1 Gone To Lunch (IRE)

AP McCoy on board, but Gone To Lunch was pulled-up in the RSA Chase when last seen. Surely we can do better.

20/1 Brooklyn Brownie (IRE)

This Aintree fancy fell early, but I’m not sure whether he will get this trip. 20s seems fair enough.

7/1 Chief Dan George (IRE)

The morning favourite should stay, and has a decent opportunity to take advantage of a low rating over fences. This smart novice hasn’t been seen out of the first three places all season, so the nine year old should be short-listed.

10/1 West End Rocker (IRE)

Looks well-weighted for Alan King, but he may have trouble with his jumping.

8/1 Nine De Sivola (FR)

The 2007 runner-up has never won over fences. 8/1 is far too short for my liking, but Ferdy Murphy has a great record in this race.

20/1 Sound Accord (IRE)

Very interesting profile, especially with Barry Geraghty on board. I’ll have a modest each-way bet because he looks like a smart jumper (which always helps).

25/1 Coe (IRE)

Coe finished 2nd in the Blue Square Gold Cup, behind a certain Rambling Minster. I would certainly consider backing him if the ground was in his favour. The fact that he fell last time out may be concerning for punters, but he could run into a place.

12/1 Merigo (FR)

Won the Eider at Newcastle, but wants it softer. At that price I’ll pass.

20/1 According To John (IRE)

He has form behind Denman, but again, he probably wants it softer. Sam Thomas rides.

40/1 Arteea (IRE)

10th in the National at 200/1 was just as astonishing as Cerium finishing fifth.

14/1 Out The Black (IRE)

May not be classy enough to land the race, but the Hobbs yard have had 3 winners at Cheltenham this week.

14/1 Hello Bud (IRE)

Good strike rate over fences but now up 4lbs. The ground is not a concern for Paddy Brennan’s mount.

10/1 That’s Rhythm (FR)

Sir Robert Ogden’s novice needs to improve from his Bangor win because this will be a lot tougher.

16/1 Chiaro (FR)

You can’t write off Rhys Flint’s chances on-board Chiaro. The teenager is good value for his 5lb claim, and the gelding looks well handicapped on the basis of his Hereford win.

33/1 Sea Diva (IRE)

Fourth in Midlands National. Dessie Hughes’ mare won’t mind the ground and has a slim place chance in my view.

20/1 King Barry (FR)

Beat Jass last December at this course and also has form behind Church Island (2nd Irish National).

66/1 Le Toscan (FR)

Unpredictable, thus we can afford to oppose.

33/1 Native Coral (IRE)

Out of the handicap and may not stay.

40/1 L’Aventure (FR)

Nick Williams’ mare won the 2005 Welsh National but she is an outsider today. Perhaps worth chancing at 40s in the hope that she can sneak a place.