Oscars 2009 Betting: Best Actor in a Leading Role
The Best Actor in a Leading Role award should go to either Sean Penn, Mickey Rourke or Frank Langella, if the betting is to be believed. Any other result would have to go down as an upset, but if one of the other 2 nominees wins the Golden Globe, the market will look drastically different on January 12.
13/8 Sean Penn (Milk)
Sean Penn was the even money favourite to win a Golden Globe for Best Actor (Drama), but is still pretty well fancied as 5/4 with Ladbrokes. The winner of that award is fairly significant, as 4 of the last 5 winners have gone on to win an Oscar. Daniel Day-Lewis won both last year, and was an incredible 1/9 after the Golden Globe.
If we have identified a solid trend, can we capitalize on odds-against for Sean Penn? My view is that he will go odds-on should he win the Golden Globe, I’d estimate his new price to win the Oscar to be about 4/6. Penn‘s performance in Milk is likely to go down well, and he has already picked up the award before in 2003. Daniel Day-Lewis also won before in 1989, so history suggests that shouldn’t be a problem.
9/4 Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler)
Mickey Rourke is the only reason why Sean Penn isn’t odds-on to win the award. For some reason he is only starting to attract praise for his performance as Randy Robinson in The Wrestler. The film won the Golden Lion award at the Venice Film Festival and has apparently received 98% positive reviews. I haven’t seen it, but one critic has said that “Rourke creates a galvanizing, humorous, deeply moving portrait that instantly takes its place among the great, iconic screen performances.” He has now been installed at the head of the betting.
Does Hollywood want Mickey Rourke back? He may even be favourite on the night, but I’m can’t back him at 9/4 at this stage.
4/1 Frank Langella (Frost/Nixon)
I thought that this film was pretty fun to watch and it kept me engaged throughout. Frank Langella would be a banker to get nominated for an Oscar if there was a market, because his President Nixon is spot on. What impressed me was how he even copies Nixon’s walking style, amongst other habits.
I’d be surprised if he actually won the award though, and 4/1 is perhaps a bit short if you are looking for an alternative to take on the favourite.
8/1 Leonardo DiCaprio (Revolutionary Road)
DiCaprio has been nominated twice for this award already, but may not necessarily get nominated for Revoltuionary Road this year. He teams up with Kate Winslet again in a love story set in 1950s America. I won’t be investing in him this year, as he is the only recent winner of a Golden Globe in recent years not to go on and win an Oscar. Like with The Titanic, it may just be Kate Winslet who gets nominated.
8/1 Richard Jenkins (The Visitor)
Paddy Power have priced up Richard Jenkins for his role in The Reader, even though he didn’t take part. I assume that they will pay out if Jenkins picks up the award for his performance in The Visitor. It is great to see him finally play the lead, who is a retired college professor. He carries it out with aplomb, creating a complex character who is confronted by 2 immigrants staying in his New York flat. He deserves a nomination at least, but it will be a tall order to go on and win the award.
Betting Advice:
Sean Penn is pretty short at 13/8, but at this stage he is the most likely winner of the award. Clint Eastwood (Gran Torino) could also get nominated, and is 10/1 for the award. I thought that Brad Pitt would be in the running on what could be a great ceremony for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, but Paddy Power haven’t priced him up. I’ll have a very small stake on Richard Jenkins, who could shorten if nominated.
1pt @ 8/1 Richard Jenkins to win Best Leading Actor
Latest Prices (22 February 2009):
8/15 Mickey Rourke
2/1 Sean Penn
20/1 Frank Langella
bookies.com is an odds comparison site, where you can check out both Oscars Betting and Golden Globes Betting:
Oscars 2009 Best Actor Betting
Oscars 2009 Best Actress Betting
Oscars 2009 Best Director Betting
Oscars 2009 Best Supporting Actor Betting
Oscars 2009 Best Supporting Actress Betting
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