Bookies Blog

On August 29^th this year, John McCain took a gamble of his own in announcing the then unknown Sarah Palin as his running mate. The Alaska governor has roused the Republican core, and is seeking to attract female voters, particularly Clinton supporters. Never mind stories about her private life – a recent poll has shown her to be more popular than Obama, McCain and Biden, with a favourability rating of 58%.

Following the “Palin Bounce”, the presidential race is now neck and neck:

Gallup: Obama 47%, McCain 45%

Diageo/Hotline: Obama 45%, McCain 42%

Research 2000: Obama 48%, McCain 44%

Rasmussen Reports: McCain 48%, Obama 47%

The different methods employed by pollsters and conflicting results leaves the punter feeling confused. All the information that we can derive from these results is that the November 4 election will be a tight one. The betting suggests otherwise, with Obama best priced at 4/6 to win the Presidential Election with Hills and Paddy Power. McCain is currently available at 7/5 to back with Ladbrokes.

Odds historically do a better job than polls as political barometers. Despite the 2000 election being close to a dead heat, the winner, George Bush, was a 4/7 favourite. The pendulum appears to have swung back in Obama’s favour.

Even though I don’t often bet at odds-on, I’m more than happy with 4/6 for Obama. I believe that his odds will shorten in the future as the electorate tires of Sarah Palin. Furthermore, the current economic climate could help Obama. For a start his party aren’t presiding over a recession, and secondly he has made a consistent case for tighter regulation. Never mind my personal views on the free market; I’m taking a betting angle.

Recommendation:

6pts at 4/6 Obama to be next U.S. President

Check out all the Presidential Election odds with bookies.com and remember to check this blog for more updates before November 4.