Bookies Blog

Another great night for the bookies last night in the Champions League, as both Arsenal and Man U failed to justify odds-on favouritism. Savvy punters would’ve seen it coming, both teams face each other in a crucial league match on Saturday, and we warned you that both were ‘weak in the betting’. Today’s quest for value sees us shun the UEFA Cup for the Glenrothes by-election!

Man City take on Steve McClaren’s FC Twente in the UEFA Cup tonight, in a match that will be televised on ITV4. Twente have won 4 out of 5 of their last away games, so 4/9 for the home side looks very short indeed. Twente are a massive 15/2.

Labour are expected to lose the Glenrothes by-election, and are the 2/1 outsiders. Today Labour have drifted from around the even money mark to 2.4/1. The current odds give Labour around a 30% chance of winning, as the Scottish National Party are the 2/5 favourites.

Defeat would be humiliating for Gordon Brown, who has enjoyed a recent comeback in the polls from his no-nonsense handling of the financial crisis. He has even joined the Glenrothes campaign trail personally, which is risky considering his image may get tainted in defeat.

Never mind that the Glenrothes constituency borders Gordon’s very own, all the pointers are that Labour will lose. The SNP were inundated with volunteers over the weekend, and the betting exchanges suggest it will be plain sailing. Let’s not forget the huge market move for Obama on Tuesday - money is a much better litmus test than any polls.

Assuming that the SNP will wrap up Glentrothes, the interesting market is the tricast with Ladbrokes. We have already established the 1-2, and the tricast market currently looks like this:

SNP/Lab/Cons: 13/8

SNP/Lab/Lib Dems: 2/1

Labour activists have reportedly been asked to bet on their party, in order to gather momentum. We’ll keep it simple and stick with a simple SNP win, although the current odds are restrictive. Still the 2/5 with Ladbrokes is value considering its 1.38/1 with Betfair.

Recommendation:

3pts 2/5 SNP Glenrothes by-election

bookies.com compares odds for all sporting events and wide range of political betting markets, including Next Permanent Labour Leader and the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election.

Man City v FC Twente Match Betting

Glenrothes by-election Winning Party Betting

Glenrothes by-election Tricast Betting