Roger Federer has been nibbled at in the betting ahead of Sunday night’s final against Rafael Nadal, and is best priced at 7/10 with Boylesports. It’s not that the bookies have made an error in chalking up their prices, they are being led by the betting public, and have little to lose following the early exit of the well backed Andy Murray.

The logic that make Federer favourite runs a bit like this: Nadal has had one day’s less rest and had a long game against Verdasco. True, but Rafa should be able to recover in time for the final, and I’m not at all concerned about our 4/1 tip.

His 5-set victory against Verdasco isn’t cause for concern – Verdasco proved that he is the form player by turning over Andy Murray. Meanwhile Federer only had to overcome Roddick is straight sets.

The World No. 1 shouldn’t be dismissed, and is 7/5 with Bet Chronicle. I’d also think about backing him at 10/1 to win the 2009 Grand Slam at this stage, because you’re bound to get a run for your money if he triumphs tomorrow.

You can also take 12/1 that the 2 players contest every Grand Slam final this year. It’s an even money chance that they meet in the Wimbledon final again, and they’ve contested the French Open final in each of the last 3 years.

I won’t be topping up my Nadal bet, but those who didn’t take the price when advised to can have a look at the Set Betting. If you fancy an epic, Nadal is 6/1 with Sky Bet to win 3-2.

bookies.com compares tennis odds between the top UK bookmakers:

Federer v Nadal Match Betting

Federer v Nadal Set Betting

Federer v Nadal Handicap Betting

Federer v Nadal First Ace Betting

Safina v S. Williams Match Betting

The first Grand Slam of the year gets under way on Monday in Melbourne, and the Mens Betting is very tight at the top. At one point, it looked like Andy Murray would be sent off favourite, but Roger Federer is 11/4 after winning the Kooyong Classic.

Murray is 3/1 with Sportingbet, although most high street bookies are only prepared to lay you 5/2. He has beaten Federer twice this year and also Rafa Nadal in the Abu Dhabi exhibition tournament. He also won the Doha tournament last year, but crashed out to Tsonga in the Australian Open last year. If you are tempted by Murray, have a look at the specials markets where Skybet are offering some tasty prices.

You can get 12/1 that he wins the title after saving match point in any match, or 33/1 to win the title without dropping a set. My advice is to not get carried away, as I think this Murray-mania means there is good value to be found elsewhere. If you aren’t a fan, how about 6/5 that he doesn’t win a set 6-0? Also of interest could be his stage of elimination – Boylesports offer 15/2 for him to crash out in the Quarter Finals.

With question marks over Federer‘s 2008, I’m happy to take 4/1 for Nadal to win. The reason Nadal’s odds are inflated is that he’s been out of action for 2 months with tendonitis, and he recently lost a match to Gael Monfils (66/1). That was a 2 set match and I’d expect him to give a better showing in Melbourne. He won the Olympic title on a similar surface last year in Beijing.

His draw is fine, and it looks like the first real test will be Murray in the semis. Players to watch out for on the way are 250/1 Hewitt and 150/1 Gasquet. Richard Gasquet is extremely talented, but I will only take a financial interest on the grass surface. He is currently 66/1 for Wimbledon.

8/1 Novak Djokovic lost out in the ATP Sydney to Jarkko Nieminen, who is a 300/1 shot. David Nalbandian beat him in the final, and will go into the Australian Open full of confidence. He has been cut into 20/1 from 60s, and looks to have the best outside chance. You can get 4/1 with Skybet that someone from outside the ‘Big 4′ wins the Mens title this year.

Recommendation:

3pts @ 4/1 Nadal to win Australian Open

5ps @ 6/5 Andy Murray NOT to win a set 6-0

bookies.com compares tennis odds between the top UK bookmakers:

Australian Open Mens Winner Betting

Australian Open Mens Will There be a New Winner? Betting

Australian Open Mens Big 4 v The Field Betting

Australian Open Andy Murray Specials

Australian Open Mens Winning Nation Betting

Australian Open Mens Federer to Lose Set Betting

Australian Open Womens Title Betting

Australian Open Womens Williams Sisters v The Field Betting

We did well to swerve the Carling Cup last night because Burnely and Derby both caused upsets. Tonight there’s Watford v Spurs in the and Man U v Blackburn in the Carling Cup, neither of which are tempting. Punters have supported Blackburn from 13/2 into 11/2, but I won’t be having them. Nor will I take 4/5 on a Man City triumph against PSG, because of the Group A standings.

If the gossip at Bookies Blog Towers is anything to go by, the BBC Sports Personality of the Year Betting could hold some value. The bookies have it as a 3 horse race, and any winner other than the ones we’re featuring would go down as an incredible turn of events. Let’s have a look at the 3 markets principals:

4/6 Lewis Hamilton

Remember that this award isn’t about who you thought had the best sporting year, it’s ultimately a public vote. Lewis is the hot favourite this year, and Ladbrokes have reported 5-figure bets. The award was won by Damon Hill in 1994, even though he didn’t capture the Driver’s Championship. Lewis Hamilton has had a rough time of it this year, and has had to come through racism and barmy stewards’ decisions. He should receive plenty of votes across Britain for his title, not just from the petrol-heads.

10/3 Rebecca Adlington

The first British woman to win an Olympic Gold medal in the swimming pool since 1960, and she certainly has more ‘personality’ than Lewis. I can see her being popular with female voters, and her 2 medals represent an incredible triumph for Britain in the pool. She has had a swimming pool named after her in Mansfield, and I think that she deserves the BBC award on merit, as the Olympics only come every 4 years. After all, Hamilton is a tax evader and has the opportunity to win the drivers’ championship on a yearly basis.

5/1 Chris Hoy

The first Brit to win 3 gold medals at the Olympics since 1908, Chris Hoy was one of the main factors behind Britain’s gold rush last summer. Full credit to him for his achievements, but I cannot see a cyclist taking the award on 14 December. Let’s hope that he doesn’t split the Adlington’s Olympian vote, because it would play into Lewis’ hands.

Others nominated:

66/1 Joe Calzaghe

100/1 Andy Murray

200/1 Rebecca Romero

200/1 Christine Ohuruogu

200/1 Nicole Cook

250/1 Ben Ainslie

Recommendation:

I am tempted to lay Lewis Hamilton for small stakes at 1.7 on Betfair, but I’ll bet Adlington because I cannot see Chris Hoy winning.

1pt 10/3 Rebecca Adlington

bookies.com is a great source for comparing odds on specials markets, and there are plenty around at the moment:

BBC SPOTY Betting

I’m a Celebrity Betting

X Factor Betting

Christmas Snow Betting

Strictly Come Dancing Betting

Spanish Big Brother Betting