The first race of next week’s Cheltenham Festival, the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, will determine the fortunes of many punters, especially those travelling across the Irish Sea. Dunguib is the horse in question, and is the first so-called ‘banker’ to run. Combined odds of 6/1 about Dunguib, Big Bucks, Master Minded and Kauto Star all winning will tempt many – but will punters still be sitting pretty after the Supreme Novices’ – run over 2m110y?

9/10 Dunguib

Dunguib is undoubtedly the latest National Hunt superstar and he has won 7 out of his 9 races impressively. The most telling of which was last year’s Champion Bumper win at the Festival:

His jumping over obstacles has been atrocious though, and many pundits think that it will cost him the race. Those having large bets on this odds-on favourite will hope that his engine ensures that he trounces a weak looking field.

Last year’s favourite in this race, Cousin Vinny, was beaten at odds of 9/4. Another negative, is that Dunguib’s regular jockey, Brian O’Connell, has never ridden the Cheltenham hurdles course before.

7/1 Get Me Out Of Here

Get Me Out Of Here looks the natural each-way choice in this field. The JP McManus-owned gelding has a progressive profile with form that reads nicely: 11111. The last ’1′ being the Totesport Trophy Handicap at Newbury, which was hotly contested by some useful types.

AP McCoy rides for boss Jonjo O’Neill, and the Champion jockey would love to have a winner before taking the Gold Cup ride on 4/1 Denman on Friday 19th.

12/1 Blackstairmountain

Ruby Walsh takes this ride, the first of many next week. Willie Mullins looks to have a formidable team one again for this year’s Festival, but Blackstairmountain only has a maiden hurdle victory at Punchestown to his name. Such inexperience is a concern in this frantic race.

12/1 Menorah

Menorah is the 15/8 second favourite in the ‘Best of British’ market, contested by Oscar Whisky and Get Me Out Of Here. A slow pace was blamed for his recent odds-on Ascot defeat, but I’d want my cash to be carried by a last time out winner. Richard Johnson is amongst the best jockeys around Cheltenham, but he is yet to win this curtain-raiser.

20/1 Oscar Whisky

Yet another Irish bred gelding in the race, and another one that is unbeaten over hurdles. What to make of his wins though? They have all come at short odds in weak-looking races.

That said, jockey Barry Geraghty is a plus and Nicky Henderson is the leading Festival trainer.

20/1 Dan Breen

Has been backed into 20s from 33/1 last week. His Doncaster win could perhaps be a good bit of form, as the second placed Tanto Faz went on to win a race at Stratford. I can’t get too excited and I’d still rather back the machine that is Dunguib!

bookies.com is your No.1 bet for comparing Cheltenham Festival betting odds:

Supreme Novices Hurdle

Arkle Chase

Champion Hurdle

Neptune Investment Management Novices Hurdle

RSA Chase

Champion Chase

Ryanair Chase

World Hurdle

Triumph Hurdle

Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle

Cheltenham Gold Cup

As ever, we have some terrific racing action to look forward to this Saturday.

The Eider Chase up in Newcastle will be one of the biggest betting races – a 4m1f Grand National trial where stamina is the name of the game. Comply Or Die took this in 2008 before his Aintree heroics, and to me 8/1 Iris De Balme looks the pick of the bunch. I am also a fan of Tarquinius at 16/1, as he always stays on at the end of his races.

Friday update: Newcastle has been rained off.

If Dubai isn’t enough to satisfy fans of flat racing, then they can also look forward to the Winter Derby Trial at Lingfield Park. Gitano Hernando is 10s for the Dubai World Cup, and he really ought to take this at odds of 4/5.

However, we are going to head to Kempton’s jumps action to try and find a good bet. The Racing Post Chase is off at 3.05pm, and is a handicap race over three miles. Triumph Hurdle favourite Mille Chief is also in action, and is 1/2 to win his race.

7/2 Nacarat

Nacarat won this last year at 10/1, and I was surprised to see odds of 9/1 about him repeating that win when the antepost market for this race opened a few weeks ago. 7/2 is a more realistic price now, but he is still entitled for support with AP McCoy taking the ride from the suspended Sam Thomas. McCoy has a good record on the grey, who is a Kempton specialist and ran a cracker in the King George.

I strongly believe that he’ll at least be placed in the first three.

This is what we said about his chances last year…

10/1 Nacarat will be ridden by AP McCoy, and will go well fresh. His form is very erratic, so I don’t think he’ll carry my money. He should be well supported in the betting tomorrow though.

4/1 Kilcrea Castle

Emma Lavelle’s Kilcrea Castle has been very well backed this week, and made a pleasing debut for his new stable at Ascot. If you like this one you’d be mad not to take Sky Bet up on their 50/1 quote for the Grand National.

4/1 Fistral Beach

Paul Nicholls won this race in 2008 with Gungadu, and commands respect in any big race on Saturdays. Ruby Walsh is going to have to do ten stone to get the ride, but Fistral Beach had a terrible spell of ‘seconditis’ and has to race from out of the handicap. Will his recent win bring about a change in attitude? Punters will certainly hope so.

7/1 Miss Mitch

This mare will relish the testing ground and is another horse that’s been well backed for victory.

Betting Update: Withdrawn on Friday afternoon. Reported to be lame at home.

7/1 Madison Du Berlais

Carries the top weight of 11st12lbs and is a favourite of this blog. Forget his last race where he was beaten by Tarnis – he clearly hates Cheltenham and should never set foot there again. He beat Denman twice last year, loves flat tracks and will be suited by the good gallop in this race set by Nacarat.

In my eyes he is a Grade 1 animal and his main threat is the front-running Nacarat, who carries 4lb less than Madison.

12/1 Atouchbetweenacara

Paul Beck has now returned his horses to Venetia Williams. Atouchbetweenacara was touted a a possible Hennessy horse earlier this season, and went down on many lists. The boylesports.com Gold Cup looked the ideal race for him, but he could only manage 11th at 8/1. I think he’s one to keep an eye on for a Festival handicap in March.

14/1 Oedipe

Oedipe’s handicap mark has come down from 146 gradually, and as a result only has to carry 10st. Nicky Henderson won this race in 2004.

14/1 Piraya

Recent winner at Warwick for the David Pipe team, but I prefer the stable-mate, Madison Du Berlais.

25/1 Razor Royale

Could’ve finished closer on his most recent Sandown start, but the handicapper may have the edge over Razor Royale after his November win.

25/1 Private Be

Trainer Philip Hobbs has a good record in this race, and if you are looking for an outsider, I would take Private Be. Looked to have every chance when going down to The Sawyer at Cheltenham, who has since run a blinder behind Monet’s Garden…

25/1 Le Burf

33/1 Something Wells

33/1 Bible Lord

66/1 Ollie Magern

Best Bets:

2pts @ 7/1 Madison Du Berlais

1pt Forecast: 1st Madison Du Berlais. 2nd Nacarat.

bookies.com is your best bet for comparing horse racing odds:

Racing Post Chase Betting Odds

Adonis Juvenile Hurdle Betting

Pendil Novices Chase Betting

Grand National 2010 Antepost Betting Odds

Cheltenham Festival Betting Odds

The John Smith’s Grand National is undoubtedly the most famous steeplechase in the world, run over an astonishing 4m4f. Thrills and spills are guaranteed – you’d be mad not to have a small wager on the race this Saturday (4.15pm, BBC1).

bookies.com compares the odds of all forty runners, to find you the best value. We are also previewing the race in depth to see if we can help you find a winner.

Victor Chandler are now Free Fall, i.e. if your selection falls they’ll refund the bet.

Bet365, BetInternet, Blue Square, Boylesports, Paddy Power and Stan James are all paying 5 places in the National.

• Saturday Betting Update

9/1 My Will

Ruby Walsh rides My Will for Paul Nicholls – the last time he did so was in 2003 on Shotgun Willy. Ruby could’ve chosen the likes of Southern Vic, Big Fella Thanks or Irish Invader, so punters will take it as a sign that this year’s Gold Cup fifth has a very strong chance.

The good ground isn’t a worry and according to his handicap mark he is 8lb well in, after his handicap mark was revised from 152 to 160.

The reason that I’m taking on this favourite is that Paul Nicholls has only had one horse placed out of 40 in the National. With a few high-profile defections, My Will will have to carry over 11st (probably 11st 4lbs) – a major concern.

9/1 Butler’s Cabin

1) AP Mc Coy hasn’t won the National in 14 attempts.

2) AP Mc Coy’s rides are always over-bet.

3) Too much weight.

4) Fell last year, also at 10/1.

10/1 Rambling Minster

A 14,000 guineas bargain, Rambling Minster won the Blue Square Gold Cup for the Reveley family this year. He will stay all day and is 6lb well in according to the weights. James Reveley is a promising young jockey, with a 30% strike rate for Guillaume Macaire in France.

14/1 State Of Play

State of Play won the Hennessy Gold Cup for Evan Williams two seasons ago and won the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby last year. He has been kept fresh for the race, and goes well on flat tracks. Stamina is no concern, but his handicap mark is still quite high. This will only be his 14th chase, so he could still be ahead of the handicapper. One for my shortlist.

16/1 Black Apalachi

Denis O’Regan rides the 2008 Becher Chase winner for Dessie Hughes, but he only made in to the second fence in last year’s National. He will have a lot of weight to carry at 11st 5lbs and the jockey is coming back from injury. Not for me.

18/1 Parsons Legacy

Hobbs has been firing in the winners lately and Parsons Legacy looks to have a place chance. 3rd in last year’s Scottish National, Parsons will like the ground and goes well fresh. Has been gambled.

16/1 Hear The Echo

Mouse Morris sends over Hear The Echo instead of the fancied War Of Attrition. Hear The Echo won the Irish Grand National last spring from out of the handicap. The form of the race reads pretty well, with Notre Pere back in 3rd. Perhaps too much weight to be a danger.

18/1 Comply Or Die

Last years’ 7/1 winner cost the bookies millions. Red Rum was the last horse to successfully defend his crown, but I think the odds for Comply Or Die will be shorter on the day. His last run at the Cheltenham Festival was encouraging, but he is set to carry 9lbs more than last year. Up against it.

20/1 Darkness

Charlie Egerton’s star has been injury prone over the years, but has been aimed at this race. He will love the distance and should be partnered by Dominic Elsworth. If you take the form of a 2008 Haydock Handicap literally, he beat Rambling Minster by 20 lengths, yet on Saturday he will be 7lbs better off.

An impressive winner of the Totescoop6 Veterans’ Handicap Chase in February, he is 8lbs well-in.

22/1 Big Fella Thanks

Christian Williams rides Big Fella for Harry Findlay and Paul Nicholls, but for me, it’s a case of Big Fella No Thanks. No seven year old has wont the National since 1940, and even though this one has been well backed, he is a quirky sort. Turned over in the Racing Post Chase at 7/2 (fav).

22/1 Southern Vic

Southern Vic hasn’t won for trainer Ted Walsh since 2006, but if the ground came up soft, this mudlark would be a cracking bet at the price. He is a good jumper on his day and will relish the trip. Ruby prefers My Will because of the ground, and who can blame him. There is still a chance some rain could fall on Saturday morning, in which case Southern Vic would be a decent bet.

22/1 L’Ami

Enda Bolger thinks that L’Ami is in with a shout this year, and if AP Mc Coy chose to ride him, his odds would be more like 10/1. The 10 year old ran well at The Festival recently, but he ended the career of Mick Fitzgerald at the 2nd fence last year.

22/1 Kilbeggan Blade

Kilbeggan Blade is reported to be in fine form, and is given a chance now that the Tom George yard is back in form. Jockey Graham Lee won the 2004 National on board Amberleigh House.

25/1 Irish Invader

Willie Mullins is taking a chance that the pedigree will see Irish Invader throughout the trip, because stamina-wise he only has a 3m novice chase to his name. Perhaps Mullins has been hiding him from the handicapper deliberately, but punters are taking a bit of a risk with this one.

33/1 Snowy Morning

Last year’s 3rd now looks shockingly handicapped at 11st 8lbs given his patchy form this season. Pass.

33/1 Himalayan Trail

Jimmy Mangan won with Monty’s Pass six years ago and Himalayan Trail has a decent shout this year in my opinion. His spin over hurdles at Naas in February is best forgotten because of the ground. Himalayan Trail goes well in warm conditions and on good ground. He has the requisite stamina after winning the Midlands National last year by 22 lengths.

He was 5th in the Becher Chase at Aintree despite bad ground. Barry Geraghty could be on board.

33/1 Maljimar

Still needs a couple to come out, but he could be worth chancing at this stage before the odds tumble. He was last seen to good effect coming 2nd to Wichita Lineman in the William Hill Trophy and has only had 2 runs this season. However he has never raced at Aintree before and his stamina over this trip is unproven.

Cornish Rebel is by the same sire (Un Desperado) and was pulled up halfway in the 2006 National.

1st Reserve.

33/1 Cornish Sett

This blog’s 33/1 each way selection in the Welsh National will be ridden again by Nick Scholfield. He was 12th last year, weakening towards the end, suggesting that the trip is a concern.

33/1 Offshore Account

Capable of a big run – finished 2nd in a handicap hurdle at Navan so could be anything. Check out the market because any support should be noted nearer the time of the race. He jumps and stays and has beaten several in this field before.

Subject to a shrewd gamble this week and I like the fact that David Casey rides.

33/1 Brooklyn Brownie

Will like decent ground and Malcolm Jefferson thinks that Brownie is worth his place in the field. Jefferson’s best chance of a winner at the Aintree meeting comes in the shape of Cape Tribulation in the John Smith’s Mersey Novices’ Hurdle.

40/1 Cloudy Lane

This year’s top weight faces a mammoth task, and disappointed at 7/1 last year, only managing 6th.

50/1 Battlecry

Tom Scudamore rides Battlecry, but only three eight year olds have won in the last 35 years. Pass.

50/1 Silver Birch

If getting into a good jumping rhythm, the 2007 33/1 winner could be a decent bet in running on Betfair. He won’t have any problems with the ground and he won a point to point race in February after recovering from injury. There is a great chance that Silver Birch will complete the course, so rates as a decent wager.

50/1 Priests Leap

Double winner of the Thystes Chase ideally wants heavy ground.

50/1 Mon Mome

Venetia Williams is in form and Mon Mome gets the trip. 10th last year, but never in contention.

50/1 Can’t Buy Time

Jonjo O’Neill thinks that Can’t Buy Time will get the trip and is happy with his jumping.

He look tired up the Cheltenham Hill when last seen 4th to Tricky Trickster, and is a 7 year old.

66/1 Golden Flight

An interesting one for Nicky Henderson but French bred horses have a bad record. His best effort to date was 3rd in the Gras Savoye Grand Steeple-Chase de Paris for Guillaume Macaire.

66/1 Knowhere

A class act on his day, but in his two National runs he has unseated his rider twice. Jumping errors will porbably cost him, but he was in touch until the 25th fence last year. Another to watch the market with.

66/1 Idle Talk

Nibbled at from 100/1, Idle Talk was 14th from 15 finishers last year, but unseated Jason Maguire in 2007. He got round to finish 4th in the 2008 Becher Chase, so I guess that you could make a case for him snatching a place in exceptional circumstances.

80/1 Chelsea Harbour

Has run ten times since finishing a solid 9th in last year’s race, but 11st 8lbs will surely be too much for him to carry to victory this year.

100/1 Stan

Very doubtful that he will stay.

100/1 Zabenz

Given an outside chance going on old form, and could squeak into a place at mammoth odds.

125/1 Eurotrek

This 13 year old won the 2006 Becher but was pulled up when hampered in Silver Birch’s National. Sam Thomas rides for Paul Nicholls so you’d have to give it a slim chance, but Eurotrek is really up against it.

125/1 Ollie Magern

Jockey Sam Waley-Cohen has a good record over the National fences, but this 11 year old needs to dominate, which will be a tough task with 40 runners. Ollie Magern has been unplaced in 3 Aintree starts.

150/1 Fleet Street

Hasn’t won beyond 3 miles.

150/1 Musica Bella

Will be ridden by Philip Carberry for French maestro François Cottin. Bella’s Auteuil form isn’t anything special, but the mare looks well handicapped at 10st 10lbs.

Her 2nd in the Prix la Haye Jousselin suggests that the distance won’t be an issue, and she should handle the big obstacles. A very interesting long shot but the last mare to win was Nickel Coin in 1951.

150/1 Reveillez

JP McManus has never won the National, but he appears to hold a good hand this year. Reveillez is a long shot having made jumping errors on his 2 Cheltenham starts this year, but had some fair form in 2007.

Aintree record: 1 run, 1 win…

200/1 Fundamentalist

Beat Rambling Minster in the 2008 Veteran’s Chase at this course, but fell at the 3rd in last year’s National.

250/1 Kelami

Last win came over hurdles in France in 2006. Poor record in the National: 2008, Unseated rider. 2007, Pulled up. 2004, brought down.

300/1 Arteea

Very hard to fancy on the basis of his last run in the Kim Muir.

600/1 Cerium

Out of his depth in the Gold Cup and would be a shocker for punters.

Recommendation:

1. Darkness 33/1 (William Hill, Stan James etc.)

2. State Of Play 16/1 (Ladbrokes)

3. Musica Bella 100/1 (Totesport, Ladbrokes etc.)

4. Himalayan Trail 33/1 (Corals, Betfred etc.)

Recommended odds correct as of 30 March 2009.

bookies.com is your best bet for comparing this year’s Grand National Odds.

Grand National Race Winner Betting

Age Of Winner

Aintree Going

Trainer Specials

Weight Carried By Winner

Winning Distance

Aintree Top Jockey

Irish Trained Winner

Winning Owner

Winning Trainer

A first fence failure

It’s all in the name

Those three little words

What price the winner?

What will start favourite for the National?

What’s the weather like?

What’s your favourite price?

Grand National Specials

Many punters will be looking to get thier festival off to a flyer in the Supreme Novices by backing 5/2 Cousin Vinny, but I am happy to wait 35 minutes until the Arkle Chase over 2m.

If you are looking to survive the 4 days of the festival, you simply cannot have a bet in every race. Just stick to one’s where you have fancies and have studied the opposition.

Arkle favourite Tatenen was turned over at odds-on at Leopardstown last time out, so I’m already concerned. The 4/1 favourite is probably overbet due to the Nicholls-Walsh combination. 5 year olds no longer get a weight allowance and the last 2 winners were 7 years old. Another troubling stat is that only 1 favourite has obliged in the last 10 years.

I’m looking for value but the longest-priced winner of this race in the last 12 years was 11/1 Flagship Uberalles in 1999.

11/2 Calgary Bay has finished 2nd in 7 of his 11 starts – oppose.

10/1 Kalahari King needs good ground, but heavy rain is forecast for Monday night. Soft ground is a possibility and is 2/1 with the bookies at the moment.

Which brings me to ORIGINAL (pictured), a 20/1 outsider with William Hill. The 66/1 Kempton winner doesn’t conform to all the statistical trends, but then again Katchit didn’t last year.

He trounced Grade 2 opposition and is a very imposing horse. His size may mean that he find the downhill sections of Cheltenham difficult, but he will fly up the hill.

His form at Auteuil is fair enough, and Original acts on soft and heavy ground – so Monday night rain wouldn’t be a concern.

How about jockey James Davies? He only picked up the Kempton ride because the top jockeys were reluctant, and connections have stuck with him for the Arkle. This season he has only had 3 winners in 151 runners – a 2% strike rate. He has never ridden a winner at Cheltenham. OK, that sounds concerning, but take a look at his 19 rides at the course since April 2004. They include the likes of 500/1 Turnium and 100/1 Redspin. His 3 horses shorter than 10/1 have all finished in the first 4.

Trainer Marcel Rolland in in good form across the Channel, with 4 winners in his last 15 runs, including last Tuesday’s Quinté at Enghien.

This doesn’t look like a vintage renewal of the Arkle, and I think Original is over-priced at 20/1.

Recommendation:

2pts each way @ 20/1 Original (William Hill)

bookies.com is your best bet for comparing odds for the Cheltenham Festival.

Arkle Chase Betting

Gold Cup Betting

Champion Hurdle Betting

Champion Chase Betting

World Hurdle Betting

45/1 Exotic Dancer has been allotted the top weight, 11st 10lb, for this year’s John Smith’s Grand National.

Following Denman‘s sub-standard performance in the Levy Board Chase, connections have sensibly decided against targeting the Gold Cup-National double. Denman had been all the ante-post rage after Paul Nicholls revealed the outrageous plan in the Racing Post, meaning he was backed into 8/1 favouritism. The plan is to go for it next year, but he may still have a run at Auteuil after the Gold Cup.

Butler’s Cabin is the 16/1 co-favourite, and could be the horse to finally break AP McCoy‘s National duck in the famous JP McManus silks. He won the 2007 Irish National, but fell at Aintree last year (10/1).

Hear The Echo is also 16/1 with Victor Chandler, who won last year’s Grand National. To me he looks harshly handicapped, but the National has been his target for a while now.

Pricewise selection Big Fella Thanks is one of those who looks well handicapped, and has thus been backed into 16s from 33/1. I probably still wouldn’t back it if Ruby Walsh was on board, given Paul Nicholl’s poor record in the race.

I am much more tempted by other Nicholls’ runners such as 25/1 My Will (ran a cracker in the Hennessy) or 50/1 Cornish Sett.

Mick Fitzgerald fancies 33/1 State of Play, and there has also been money for last year’s runner up, 25/1 King Johns Castle.

David Pipe‘s 2008 hero, Comply or Die, is 20/1 but has gone 15lb up in the weights. Another win would be a massive ask.

50/1 Endless Power has won twice at Aintree before, but may not get the trip.

This blog will be featuring an extensive Grand National preview come April, in which we will reveal our selections.

bookies.com is the best place to compare the antepost markets:

Grand National Betting

Cheltenham Gold Cup Betting

Newbury‘s mouth-watering card has been lost to the elements, but we’re praying that tomorrow’s re-scheduled Aon Chase goes ahead at Kempton Park.

The attraction is Denman, last year’s Gold Cup hero; who is a 4/7 chance in the Grade 2 Levy Board Chase. The reason he isn’t a silly price like 1/10 is the right handed track and the concern over his well-being. We haven’t seen him on the track for almost 11 months, and Saturday’s race should shake up the 2009 Gold Cup market.

Denman is 15/8 with Blue Square for the Cheltenham feature race, but regular Bookies Blog readers will know that I have taken a liking to 3/1 Kauto Star. If Denman flops tomorrow, I won’t write him off, but I’d expect the bookmakers to cut stable-mate Kauto to about 6/4.

The 2:50 Levy Board Chase is extremely difficult to find a betting angle, but punters would do well to find an each way alternative. The bookmakers have covered that option, by only offering 2 places in the 7 runner race.

6/1 Alberta’s Run will be popular with AP McCoy supporters, but this is a horse that the blog has never got right. We fancied him in the Hennessey at big odds, but he then ran a big race at 25/1 behind Kauto Star on good ground at Kempton. The going is crucial to Alberta’s, who won’t be at home in tomorrow’s soft ground.

If there was 8 runners I’d be tempted to smash into either 6/1 Joe Lively or 14/1 Madison Du Berlais, who will both relish the testing conditions. With only 2 places I’ll have a cheeky few quid on the forecast, but a Denman victory would be good for racing.

bookies.com compares odds between bookmakers for antepost horse racing:

Levy Board Chase Betting
Cheltenham Gold Cup 09 Betting