Rafael Nadal went into the Australian Open final as the bookmakers’ underdog, with Bet365 happy to offer 6/4. A barking price considering that he had won his last 4 matches against Roger Federer. Rafa beat the player of the tournament, Verdasco, whilst Roger beat Roddick with ease in his semi-final.

The money came in for Federer, who was the 4/6 favourite to win his 14th Grand Slam. We kept the faith in our 4/1 tip Nadal, telling readers that ‘he shouldn’t be dismissed’.

Before the tournament even began, we recommended Nadal as a strong bet to win the tournament at 4/1, steering readers past the overbet Andy Murray.

With question marks over Federer’s 2008, I’m happy to take 4/1 for Nadal to win. The reason Nadal’s odds are inflated is that he’s been out of action for 2 months with tendonitis, and he recently lost a match to Gael Monfils (66/1). That was a 2 set match and I’d expect him to give a better showing in Melbourne. He won the Olympic title on a similar surface last year in Beijing.

Perhaps you missed out on the 4/1 value bet of the tournament, well yesterday we pointed out some stunning value to be had before the final.

I won’t be topping up my Nadal bet, but those who didn’t take the price when advised to can have a look at the Set Betting. If you fancy an epic, Nadal is 6/1 with Sky Bet to win 3-2.

The 10/1 for Nadal to win the ‘Grand Slam’ was ‘bound to give you a run for your money’, and you wouldn’t bet against the World No.1 now. William Hill would, and they hold out at 11/1.

Nadal started as the outsider, but managed to break Federer in the first game of the match. Federer fought back gamely, which saw Nadal’s odds drift to 5/2 in running. Even though Fed won 1 more point than Nadal in the match, Nadal saw off his challenge in the first 5 set final in 21 years.

bookies.com compares tennis odds between the top UK bookmakers:

How many Grand Slams will Nadal win? Betting

Wimbledon 2009 Betting

French Open 2009 Betting

Roger Federer has been nibbled at in the betting ahead of Sunday night’s final against Rafael Nadal, and is best priced at 7/10 with Boylesports. It’s not that the bookies have made an error in chalking up their prices, they are being led by the betting public, and have little to lose following the early exit of the well backed Andy Murray.

The logic that make Federer favourite runs a bit like this: Nadal has had one day’s less rest and had a long game against Verdasco. True, but Rafa should be able to recover in time for the final, and I’m not at all concerned about our 4/1 tip.

His 5-set victory against Verdasco isn’t cause for concern – Verdasco proved that he is the form player by turning over Andy Murray. Meanwhile Federer only had to overcome Roddick is straight sets.

The World No. 1 shouldn’t be dismissed, and is 7/5 with Bet Chronicle. I’d also think about backing him at 10/1 to win the 2009 Grand Slam at this stage, because you’re bound to get a run for your money if he triumphs tomorrow.

You can also take 12/1 that the 2 players contest every Grand Slam final this year. It’s an even money chance that they meet in the Wimbledon final again, and they’ve contested the French Open final in each of the last 3 years.

I won’t be topping up my Nadal bet, but those who didn’t take the price when advised to can have a look at the Set Betting. If you fancy an epic, Nadal is 6/1 with Sky Bet to win 3-2.

bookies.com compares tennis odds between the top UK bookmakers:

Federer v Nadal Match Betting

Federer v Nadal Set Betting

Federer v Nadal Handicap Betting

Federer v Nadal First Ace Betting

Safina v S. Williams Match Betting

Olympic Champion Elena Dementieva looks like a terrific bet on paper at 8/1, to win the Australian Open. She has just won 2 WTA titles in Australia – Auckland and Sydney. The world No. 4 is unbeaten in 10 matches and has been cut by some bookmakers to 13/2.

Everything in place for a cast-iron bet. But her form needs closer inspection – she has never won a Grand Slam and hasn’t reached a final since 2004, where she lost 2 in straight sets. Recent form is one thing, but if she has a temperamental problem at Grand Slams it will pay to oppose her, at least until she wins one.

Venus Williams is just shading favouritism on Betfair, but most bookmakers go 7/2 for both Williams sisters. Serena has won the Australian Open 3 times in the last 6 years, but pundits still give Venus a better chance this year. Serena only managed to win 4 games against Dementieva in Sydney, but has won the Open on alternate years: 2003, 2005 and 2007.

Victor Chandler go evens that one of the sisters wins it, but I’d probably be on the 4/5 side of the fence – any other player to win. As well as having 10/1 Safina on your side, you’d also have the likes of 7/1 Jankovic and 12/1 Ivanovic. World No.1 Jankovic is still a maiden, which is why many will prefer to pick one of the Williams sisters.

Of those at bigger prices, Canbet’s 100/1 for Amélie Mauresmo looks far too big. She beat Ivanovic 6-3 6-2 in Brisbane but had to pull out of the semis with an injury. She is feeling better now and won this tournament in 2006.

Recommendation:

2pts 4/5 Winner not to be a Williams Sister

1/2 pt @ 100/1 Mauresmo to win Australian Open 2009

bookies.com compares tennis odds between the top UK bookmakers:

Australian Open Womens Title Betting

Australian Open Womens Williams Sisters v The Field Betting

Australian Open Mens Winner Betting

Australian Open Mens Will There be a New Winner? Betting

Australian Open Mens Big 4 v The Field Betting