Bookies Blog &#187; cheltenham

Cheltenham Festival 2009: World Hurdle Betting Preview

Trevor Brody — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 01:22:19 +0000

The Ladbrokes World Hurdle is my favourite race of the festival – a stamina test over 3m. Inglis Drever has been retired, and many punters are expecting last year’s runner-up Kasbah Bliss to triumph this year.

Even with rain forecast, Kasbah Bliss is an 11/10 chance. Francois Doumen reports him to be in good health following a stroming win in the Blue Square Hurdle at Haydock, and thinks that he will be good enough to win on soft ground.

Matt Chapman (At The Races) isn’t alone in thinking that Kasbah is a certainty. Jockey Christophe Pieux (pictured) will probably wait in the field before charging home late, so I think the odds will be bigger in-running.

Some may be concerned that he hasn’t won in 2 attempts, but he has progressed well over the flat last year. As a 7 year old he should take all the beating.

The current price is unappealing, but the in-running price will almost certainly be bigger because 4/1 Punchestowns travels very strongly.

He has won 2 from 3 starts, and had to give weight away to the talented Big Buck’s in the Cleeve Hurdle. Nicky Henderson will have him tuned up for the Festival, and he impressed in a racecourse gallop at Newbury on Sunday.

Paul Nicholls was going to be restricted to 25/1 Mobaasher, but 6/1 Big Buck’s has emerged as a popular bet. I won’t be having any more antepost bets in this race, but Big Buck’s would be a terrific each way bet if the ground is soft on Thursday. He stayed on well up the hill in the Cleeve, but had jumping problems over fences.

12/1 Fair Along has improved hugely now back to hurdles, and has a great place chance. He always runs well at Cheltenham, which is more than can be said about others.

25/1 Blazing Bailey has been placed in 2 World Hudles, and will go chasing next season.

33/1 Mighty Man will be ridden by Sam Thomas, and has been placed in 2 World Hurdles. The 9 year old was last seen in April 2007.

40/1 Lough Derg will probably go for the Coral Cup, but would still attract money in this race.

bookies.com is your best bet for comparing odds for the Cheltenham Festival.

Cheltenham Festival 2009: Champion Chase Betting Preview

Trevor Brody — Wed, 04 Mar 2009 03:54:46 +0000

The Queen Mother Champion Chase is run over 2m on Wednesday, and features the highest rated chaser in the world.

Master Minded (pictured) is owned by Clive Smith and trained by Paul Nicholls. Last year he became the youngest ever winner of the race as a 5 year old, beating previous winner Voy Por Ustedes by 19 lengths, without coming off the bridle.

Having won the Tingle Creek and Victor Chandler Chase, he is best priced with Bet Chronicle at 2/5, but most of the other bookies make him a 1/3 shot. OK, there isn’t much between those 2 prices, but it may interest you if you are looking to ‘print some money’.

Blue Square have tried to add some extra interest into the market, with betting on Master Minded’s Starting Price. ’1/3′ is an even money shot, whilst they go 2/1 for a 1/2 SP. 5/2 to win by 14 lengths or more will appeal to many.

My initial instinct would be to lay him, having every other in the field on your side. At the price, you’d be risking £10 to win £30. After all, he has to clear 12 fences and he fell on his UK chasing debut.

His jumping is excellent nowadays and he’ll take all the beating. The each-way terms for the other runners are incredibly attractive.

Big Zeb is next in the market at 10/1, and will be ridden by Choc Thornton. I don’t fancy the horse, but 10/1 each way is a much better bet than 3/1 in the market without Master Minded. You’ll get a decent reward if he places, and you can always hope to get the favourite turned over. After all, there is no such thing as a Festival banker.

Big Zeb fell last time out at Punchestown (6/5), but was travelling well.

14/1 Well Chief was the evens favourite in 2007, but David Pipe thinks he has a chance.

16/1 Tidal Bay will probably join Voy Por Ustedes in the Ryanair Chase.

Nicky Henderson has 14/1 Petit Robin, who should finish closer to Master Minded now running left-handed. A very good place bet.

20/1 Twist Magic ran a blinder in the Tingle Creek only to fall, but is the second string. A horse of such class should be a shorter price with drying ground this year.

Recommendation:

1pt each way @ 20/1 Twist Magic (Ladbrokes, 1/4 odds 1-2-3)

bookies.com is your best bet for comparing odds for the Cheltenham Festival.

Cheltenham Festival 2009: Champion Hurdle Betting Preview

Trevor Brody — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 02:16:43 +0000

The Smurfit Kappa Champion Hurdle is run over 2m110y and comprises 8 hurdles. It will be run on the Old Course at 3.20pm on Tuesday 10 March.

The antepost betting has revolved around Nicky Henderson’s Binocular (pictured), who is now best priced at 6/4.

He hurdles very gracefully and is a strong traveller. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go odds-on in running. He didn’t get up the hill when finishing 2nd in last year’s Supreme Novices, so I cannot have him at any price in such a hotly contested race.

I would be interested in place laying him and laying him in running at about 1.7 on Betfair. With former champions in the field, I can see him getting turned over.

Paul Nicholl’s Celestial Halo is 11/1 with Victor Chandler, but the 5/1 favourite in the market without Binocular. I would much rather back last year’s Triumph Hurdle winner in the market with Binocular, because he has every chance of reversing the Ascot placings.

He had an allergic reaction after being beaten by Binocular, and wasn’t convincing in beating Osana at Sandown last time out.

However, last year he got beaten at Doncaster before Cheltenham, and he comes alive in the Spring. Nicholls has purposefully left plenty to work on and Celestial Halo will relish the strong gallop. Festival form counts for a lot, so my preference would be for Celestial Halo over Binocular, even at a shorter price.

David Pipe’s 11/1 Osana will come on for his last run and has a good chance at snatching a place.

12/1 Crack Away Jack will be ridden by Noel Fehily this time and has Festival form. Excuses can be made for just about every run since, but I’d probably lay it for a place.

I am undecided about last year’s winner Katchit, who is 14/1 with William Hill. Alan King is undecided about applying the blinkers, but Choc Thornton reckons that Katchit is a decent each way bet. His form has been questionable, meaning that he was sent on holiday at the start of the year.

16/1 Sublimity is another former champion, who completed a good piece of work at Leopardstown over the weekend.
Denis O’Regan will ride last year’s favourite, Sizing Europe, who is 20/1 with Victor Chandler. He is reported to be in good form but backers need their heads examined!

Noel Meade sends over Harchibald and Jered who are both 25/1.

33/1 Brave Inca will want soft ground, and could be well supported on the day. Heavy rain is forecast on Monday night, so the time to back the mud-lovers is now. If the going is soft, Brave Inca could be sent off at about 20/1. His age is a concern, and he won’t have Ruby Walsh this time.

40/1 Snap Tie was 3rd in the Supreme Novices’ last year and has an each way chance. The strong pace and large field will suit.

Hardy Eustace is 170/1 to win his 3rd Champion Hurdle. He’ll be running in his 7th festival!

Lough Derg is 1000/1 to win the Champion Hurdle, it looks like the Coral Cup is his target.

Recommendation:

1pt each way @ 11/1 Celestial Halo (Victor Chandler)

1pt each way @ 33/1 Brave Inca (Will Hill etc.)

bookies.com is your best bet for comparing odds for the Cheltenham Festival.

Cheltenham Festival 2009 Betting Preview

Trevor Brody — Mon, 02 Mar 2009 02:37:33 +0000

The Cheltenham Festival kicks off next Tuesday with the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, the moment that jumps racing fans like myself have been waiting for all year.

This week we’ll preview all 4 Championship Races, but we’ll kick things off by taking a look at the Festival specials markets.

At this stage we’re still in the dark about running plans, but several bookmakers are now non-runner/no bet. For example, you fancy Lough Derg – the staying hurdler that never says die. Yet he could run in either the Champion Hurdle, World Hurdle or Coral Cup.

For punters who aren’t in the know, it’s best to check out running plans by searching for the horse’s connections in Google News.

Top Jockey usually only takes about 3 winners, but you really want a jockey tied to an in-form stable who has a good book of rides at the festival. At this stage we don’t know who is riding what, as there are still some dilemnas to be solved – e.g. AP McCoy’s Gold Cup ride.

Tony McCoy is 9/2, not a bad price for a jockey who rode his 3000th winer this year. He doesn’t ride Cheltenham particularly well, but has some strong rides for JP McManus, such as Binocular.

I was on Ruby Walsh at evens (1/1) last year, and he’s 5/4 with bet365 this year. Even at that price he looks a good bet, taking rides for Paul Nicholls and Willie Mullins. Add in Kauto Star and Master Minded and it looks like you have yourself some easy money.

Choc Thornton is interesting at 9/1 with Ladbrokes, whilst Richard Johnson is the best long-shot at 25/1.

Rain is forecast this week, and if it doesn’t fall the course will be watered to ensure that it rides on the easy side of good. ‘Good to Soft’ is 4/11 with Blue Square in the Official Going market.

Paul Nicholls is 5/2 with totesport for 5 or more winners – I’m not interested.

Nicholls is 7/1 on Betfair to repeat the Gold Cup 1-2-3 of 2008, but Denman has been very weak in the betting recently. Perhaps punters should just play the reverse forecast with Kauto Star and Neptune Collonges.

Nicky Henderson is 9/1 to win the Champion Hurdle and World Hurdle - you wouldn’t bet against him this year. He could even take the Gold Cup with Barbers Shop (16/1)!

Blue Square go 4/5 for a Female Winner at Cheltenham – think Nina Carberry (Garde Champetre, Parsons Pistol, Poker De Sivola).

Punters may want to put the so-called ‘bankers’ in an accumulator – the Bincocular, Kasbah Bliss, Master Minded, Kauto Star fourfold is 15/1 on Betfair.

bookies.com is your best bet for comparing odds for the Cheltenham Festival.

Official Going Betting

Top Jockey Betting

Levy Board Chase Betting
Cheltenham Gold Cup 09 Betting

Denman the Weekend Attraction at Kempton Park

Trevor Brody — Sat, 07 Feb 2009 00:43:20 +0000

Newbury‘s mouth-watering card has been lost to the elements, but we’re praying that tomorrow’s re-scheduled Aon Chase goes ahead at Kempton Park.

The attraction is Denman, last year’s Gold Cup hero; who is a 4/7 chance in the Grade 2 Levy Board Chase. The reason he isn’t a silly price like 1/10 is the right handed track and the concern over his well-being. We haven’t seen him on the track for almost 11 months, and Saturday’s race should shake up the 2009 Gold Cup market.

Denman is 15/8 with Blue Square for the Cheltenham feature race, but regular Bookies Blog readers will know that I have taken a liking to 3/1 Kauto Star. If Denman flops tomorrow, I won’t write him off, but I’d expect the bookmakers to cut stable-mate Kauto to about 6/4.

The 2:50 Levy Board Chase is extremely difficult to find a betting angle, but punters would do well to find an each way alternative. The bookmakers have covered that option, by only offering 2 places in the 7 runner race.

6/1 Alberta’s Run will be popular with AP McCoy supporters, but this is a horse that the blog has never got right. We fancied him in the Hennessey at big odds, but he then ran a big race at 25/1 behind Kauto Star on good ground at Kempton. The going is crucial to Alberta’s, who won’t be at home in tomorrow’s soft ground.

If there was 8 runners I’d be tempted to smash into either 6/1 Joe Lively or 14/1 Madison Du Berlais, who will both relish the testing conditions. With only 2 places I’ll have a cheeky few quid on the forecast, but a Denman victory would be good for racing.

bookies.com compares odds between bookmakers for antepost horse racing:

Cheltenham Cleeve Hurdle Betting Preview

Trevor Brody — Fri, 23 Jan 2009 09:34:29 +0000

The Grade 2 Cleeve Hurdle takes pace at Cheltenham on Saturday, and is a good form guide ahead of the World Hurdle in March. The race is off at 3.45pm and will be televised on Channel 4.

Nicky Henderson‘s Punchestowns is currently an 11/10 with Ladbrokes and will be sent off as favourite. In a slog over 3 miles on soft ground, the alarm bells are already ringing. He is a chasing type, who as form over the course and predicted going. With an odds-on favourite, you are always looking for an each way selection to fill in the places, and maybe give the jolly a scare. If Punchestowns does win, his 2/1 quote for the World Hurdle will be long gone.

4/1 Big Buck’s has emerged as a surprise contender over timber this year, because he was meant to be aimed at the Gold Cup. His jumping let him down in the Hennessy, but he won on his British hurdling debut at Cheltenham in handicap company. It remains to be seen just how good he is, but with Ruby Walsh on board, he has to be consdered.

There has been money for Blazing Bailey, now 7/1 from 10/1. He has had the misfortune to run into the great Inglis Drever several times, but may do better with the blinkers back on. He has been erratic but still retains his talent deep down.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see some money for 8/1 Fair Along. He has a brilliant record around Cheltenham, and will be ridden by the the under-rated Richard Johnson instead of the claimer Rhys Flint.

All of the above horses are exceptional but I’m still looking elsewhere for my bet. 20/1 Lough Derg is a game front-runner who completed back to back wins last weekend at Ascot. He has Cheltenham form and has the stamina to cope with the going and trip. David Pipe isn’t sure if he’ll be ready in time, so he could be declared a non-runner. Still, I’m on at 35/1 on Betfair and will cross my fingers that he runs.

I can see 25/1 No Refuge running a big race, but the bet of the weekend for me is PETTIFOUR at 33s. Nigel Twiston-Davies has had a mixed season, but still has a good 17% strike rate over timber. The trainer’s form means we are getting a brilliant price on a horse who deserves more attention. He was 5th to Punchestowns at Ascot last time out, but that can be excused after he made a mistake at the first. Perhaps he takes time to be wound up, as his January/February form reads: 11. He will be suited be the course and should relish a strong pace set by Lough Derg.

Recommendation:

3pts each way @ 33/1 Pettifour [Bluesq, 1/5 odds 1,2,3]

1/2pt win @ 25/1 Lough Derg [Ladbrokes]

bookies.com compares odds between bookmakers for antepost horse racing:

Cleeve Hurdle Betting