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Oscars 2009 Betting: Best Actress in a Leading Role

Trevor Brody — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 18:10:22 +0000

At the time of writing, the betting for the Best Actress in a Leading Role looks fairly open, despite the presence of Kate Winslet at the top. There isn’t an obvious winner at the moment, but the other contenders are just as worthy, and could even shade favouritism before the big night.

9/4 Kate Winslet (Revolutionary Road)

Really should become a 7 time Oscar nominee, but whether she will finally win is another question. The Academy probably want to give her an award, and Kate will be hoping that they don’t classify her role in The Reader as a lead. Of the 10 actors that have been nominated in both the lead and supporting categories in the same year, 6 won an award. I think that The Reader, a film about the Holocaust, will go down better than Revolutionary Road. At 9/4, I’m happy to look elsewhere for a bet.

5/2 Meryl Streep (Doubt)

Hasn’t won since Sophie’s Choice, which was released in 1982! The film Doubt looks like a long shot in the Best Film betting, but Meryl Streep has the chance to win Best Actress. Her character is very likable, and the story focuses on sexism and coverups in the Catholic Church. I’m not sure how it will go down on the night, but her drift in the Golden Globes market is alarming, out to 3/1 from 5/2. The Golden Globes don’t always work out as a form guide before the Oscars, but I’d rather bet on an actress that was gathering momentum in the market.

7/2 Anne Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married)

The problem about the 7/2 on offer is that everyone loves Anne Hathaway in this movie, but opinion is divided on the film itself. The Academy loves the younger contenders in this category, meaning that Anne has a terrific chance. If Revolutionary Road flops, Hathaway could mop up at tasty odds of 7/2. She has made the transition from the ‘popcorn’ movies and is a good campaigner. She is best priced at 11/4 for a Golden Globe, so her true price for an Oscar may in fact be shorter than the 7/2. Taking it now is a bit risky before other bookmakers open markets, but I’m happy enough with the price.

5/1 Sally Hawkins (Happy-Go-Lucky)

If she gets nominated, Sally Hawkins has a good chance of winning. Paddy Power are of the same opinion, and go 5/1 from 8/1. She has picked up a few critics’ award, but the same was true for Naomi Watts, who didn’t get an Oscar nomination. My advice would be to tread carefully, but I would by no means rule her out.

6/1 Kristin Scott Thomas (Il y a longtemps que je t’aime)

8/1 Angelina Jolie could pick up a nomination this year, but she hasn’t had one since 1999. If she is back in favour, I fancy that Kristin Scott Thomas will be the casualty. The latter is also a 6/1 long shot for a Golden Globe, but she was brilliant in Il y a longtemps que je t’aime. It’s the only film that I’ve seen on this shortlist - Scott Thomas plays Juliette, who goes to live with her younger sister after a long spell in jail. French films punch above their weight at the Oscars, such as Amélie Poulain, Les Choristes and Le Scaphandre et Le Papillon, which got 4 nominations last year.

Recommendation:

4pts @ 7/2 Anne Hathaway Best Actress in a Leading Role

Latest Prices (22 February 2009):

1/3 Kate Winslet

14/1 Anne Hathaway

7/2 Meryl Streep

bookies.com is an odds comparison site, where you can check out both Oscars Betting and Golden Globes Betting:

Oscars 2009 Best Film Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Actor Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Actress Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Director Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Supporting Actor Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Supporting Actress Betting

BAFTA’s Betting

Oscars 2009 Betting: Best Film

Trevor Brody — Thu, 01 Jan 2009 13:13:19 +0000

At the moment, there are 281 films in the running for the most prestigious Academy Award, Film of the Year. Nevertheless, you can bet that that the eventual winner will come from Paddy Power’s shortlist of 12 films. Bet365 are also taking bets on this market, and give you slightly more options. That said, do you really think that 66/1 Quantum of Solace was that good?

7/4 Slumdog Millionaire

I would’ve been happy to take the original price of 2/1, but now the best price you can find is 7/4 with William Hill. This film should be at the top of anyone’s list, simply because it has had to build an audience, as it doesn’t have the big studio behind it. This prize likes to recognize films that are financially successful, and Slumdog Millionaire ticks that box. For that reason, 7/4 looks like a fair price.

6/1 Milk

Milk wasn’t nominated in the Best Picture category in the Globes, but it is pretty solid in the betting at 6/1. That price looks pretty short, as I give it a similar chance to both Frost/Nixon and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. Sean Penn’s portrayal of California’s first openly gay elected official will be popular, not least because it’s a politcally apt topic. To be honest, I’d rather put my money on Sean Penn in the Best Actor category.

16/1 Doubt

May eventually get out-grossed by Slumdog Millionaire, but Doubt has to be recognised as another financial success. The first available price was 5/1, but now you can get 16s, maybe because Meryl Streep’s performance has been criticized for one reason or another. Doubt picked up the most Screen Actors Guild nominations, but the same ‘curse’ befell Into The Wild last year.

5/1 The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

I haven’t seen this one, but apparently it is very ordinary and simply helped by its star appeal. Cate Blanchett and Brad Pitt add great weight to this film’s popularity and I’m interested that the Paddy Power now go 5/1 from last week’s 8/1. The film is about an 80 year old man who ages backwards (i.e. gets younger with time) and is described by its director as ‘dark’ and ‘romantic’. Its 3 day total came to $27.2 million - these financially successful films always tend to do well.

8/1 Frost/Nixon

Kevin Bacon deserves an Oscar sometime soon, and could be decent value to pick one up this year in the Best Supporting Actor Category for his performance as an aide in Frost/Nixon. This film should make the final 5, but Ron Howard’s films always come across to me as both slow and a bit static. I’ll confess to not having seen this film yet, but it isn’t worthy of best picture. The interview part has been criticized for being repeatedly interrupted.

Aside from the market leaders, 16/1 The Wrestler could have an outside chance. The Dark Knight is a 25/1 underdog, but has the potential to cause a stunning upset.

Latest Prices (22 February 2009):

1/7 Slumdog Millionaire

13/2 The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

25/1 Milk

bookies.com currently has odds on the 3 main Academy Awards:

Best Film Betting

Best Actress Betting

Best Actor Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Director Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Supporting Actor Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Supporting Actress Betting

BAFTA’s Betting

Oscars 2009 Betting Previews

Trevor Brody — Tue, 30 Dec 2008 19:26:23 +0000

It’s the time of year when the showbiz world turns their attention towards the Oscars, which take place on 22 February 2009. As we start a new year’s betting on Bookies Blog, we’ll be looking for some long term value bets to keep us afloat.

Over the next few days we’ll be looking at the front-runners in the main 3 categories, to scrutinise the favourites and see if there could be any upsets to the betting. Click the links to be taken to each individual preview or just go to our Oscars Betting section of the blog to find out the latest developments.

In the Directing category, Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire is 1/2 with Centrebet, followed by 3/1 David Fincher for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. The Dark Knight is a 14/1 outsider in the Best Film category, but director Christopher Nolan has a great chance in this one (10/1).

The best Supporting Actor category will be very prohibitive thanks to Heath Ledger, who must surely pick up the award for his performance as the Joker in The Dark Knight. Skybet have priced him at 1/4.

Penelope Cruz is the even money (1/1) favourite in the best Supporting Actress category, although 4/1 Viola Davis and 6/4 Kate Winslet are close behind. Kate Winslet is a potential nominee for 2 films this year: The Reader and Revolutionary Road. With 5 Golden Globe nominations to her name this year, she has to be considered from a betting angle.

The Adapted Writing category could also go the way of Slumdog Millionaire, which has 4 Golden Globe nominations. The story is about a child from Mumbai who makes it onto the Indian version of Who Wants to be a Millionaire? Others that will be in contention are Doubt and also The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.

In the Original Writing category, Vicky Cristina Barcelona could take it for Woody Allen. The romantic comedy has had great reviews and has had 4 Golden Globe Nominations. It got an 80% rating on Rotten Tomatoes and is Allen’s best film since Match Point in 2005. Rachel Getting Married and Milk will be at the front of the betting, but Changeling could be an outside bet. If I was to have a bet at this stage, I’d probably take WALL-E for some serious value. It has been gathering momentum and could make headlines this year. Expect it to take the Animated Feature Film category.

bookies.com is an odds comparison site, where you can check out the Oscars Betting:

Oscars 2009 Best Film Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Actor Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Actress Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Director Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Supporting Actor Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Supporting Actress Betting

BAFTAs 2009 Best Film Betting

BAFTAs 2009 Best Director Betting

BAFTAs 2009 Best Actor Betting

BAFTAs 2009 Best Actress Betting

BAFTAs 2009 Best Supporting Actor Betting

BAFTAs 2009 Best Supporting Actress Betting

BAFTAs 2009 Outstanding British Film Film Betting