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Final Look at The Oscars 2009 Betting

Trevor Brody — Fri, 20 Feb 2009 00:01:39 +0000

Our Oscars Betting section is well worth a look, but many of the prices have changed since we embarked on the value hunt at the turn of the year. Slumdog Millionaire was an early 13/8 with Paddy Power, but is now 1/6.

We said that it was ‘nailed on’ at 4/9, but we forecast that it could go off shorter in the betting if it performed well at the BAFTAs. It won 7 of the 10 BAFTAs it was nominated for. Danny Boyle is now 1/7 to be Best Director.

Each major category has a warm favourite, but I’m not alone in feeling that not all of them will oblige on the night. Kate Winslet is now 4/9 for Best Actress, whilst Mickey Rourke is 4/7 with Blue Square for Best Actor.

Sean Penn is still in with a shout at 21/10, but our tip Richard Jenkins is a 66/1 no-hoper. Heath Ledger is 1/33 for Best Supporting Actor - surely punters will be ‘printing money’ on the night!

Penelope Cruz is 13/20 for Best Supporting Actress, but there has been a bit of late money for 14/1 Amy Adams.

Don’t worry if you missed the early prices, you can still have a bet on Kate’s acceptance speech with Paddy Power. It’s 4/6 that she cries and 9/4 that she thanks the Academy first in her speech.

It’s 10/1 that a nominated actress is photographed at the Oscars with her nipple uncovered and a juicy 12/1 that an Oscar gong is dropped on the night!

Oscars 2009 Best Film Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Actor Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Actress Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Director Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Supporting Actor Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Supporting Actress Betting

BAFTAs: British Academy Film Awards Betting Preview

Trevor Brody — Tue, 27 Jan 2009 11:44:48 +0000

The British Academy Film Awards (BAFTAs) are the nearest thing that Britain has to the Oscars, meaning that the betting is very similar. They take place on the 8th February and will almost certainly have an effect on the odds for the Oscars betting markets.

Whilst most nominations are the same, there are some regional differences which punters have to take into account. For example, in the Original Screenplay category foreign films such as Burn After Reading and I’ve Loved You So Long have picked up BAFTA nominations.

In the Best Actress Category, the Brits have gone for Kate Winslet (twice!) and Kristin Scott Thomas (25/1). Over the sea, the Americans preferred to give Melissa Leo a shock nomination. This actress protectionism means that I still think Anne Hathaway is a good bet for an Oscar (3/1 Victor Chandler), because Winslet keeps coming up short.

Kate is already preparing an acceptance speech for her BAFTA award, but we don’t know yet which film she’ll get in for: either The Reader (11/10) or Revolutionary Road (6/4). If I was pushed to have a bet in that category, I’d go for The Reader, which has nominations for Best Film and Best Director.

Slumdog Millionaire will probably make the headlines, and Ladbrokes are taking bets on just how many BAFTAs it’ll scoop up. 5-6 Awards is their 5/4 favourite, whilst 7-8 Awards is on offer for 6/4. 9-10 Awards may be of interest to some optimistic punters at 8/1.

I don’t fancy lead actor Dev Patel to pick up Best Actor at 10/1, but Danny Boyle should win Best Director at 2/9. Ladbrokes go 1/4 that Slumdog wins Best Film, and it could even Outstanding British Film at 8/11, but Hunger could be a better bet at 5/2.

Bet with caution, but it could also take Music, Editing, Production Design and Adapted Screenplay. If it doesn’t do as well as expected, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button looks like the one to benefit (8/1 Best Film, Bet365).

bookies.com is an odds comparison site, where you can check out Oscars and BAFTAs Betting:

BAFTAs 2009 Best Film Betting

BAFTAs 2009 Best Director Betting

BAFTAs 2009 Best Actor Betting

BAFTAs 2009 Best Actress Betting

BAFTAs 2009 Best Supporting Actor Betting

BAFTAs 2009 Best Supporting Actress Betting

BAFTAs 2009 Outstanding British Film Film Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Film Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Actor Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Actress Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Director Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Supporting Actor Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Supporting Actress Betting

Will Kate finally win an Oscar this year?

Trevor Brody — Tue, 13 Jan 2009 19:29:16 +0000

The last time we wrote about the betting for this year’s Oscars, Kate Winslet was the 9/4 favourite to win the Best Leading Actress award for Revolutionary Road. After she picked up 2 Golden Globes, in the leading and supporting actress categories, she looks nailed on to go and pick up at least one Oscar next month.

I got excited when our alternative, 7/2 Anne Hathaway, took over favouritism at 2/1. She is now a 6/1 chance, so don’t quite write her off yet!

William Hill are offering 1/5 that Kate Winslet wins at least one Oscar, and 15/8 that she wins 2 or more. She has already been nominated 5 times without winning an award, and you can get 4/1 that she goes home empty handed.

Kate is 4/6 favourite with Paddy Power to win Best Actress, but Sally Hawkins has emerged as another serious contender. We said that she should be ‘by no means ruled out’ at 5/1 and is now 2/1 after winning the Golden Globe in the comedy section.

Elsewhere Slumdog Millionaire is a very warm order at 2/5 to win Best Film after it won the equivalent Golden Globe. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button is next at 5/1, although it failed to win a Golden Globe from 5 possible categories.

bookies.com is an odds comparison site, where you can check out Oscars Betting:

Oscars 2009 Best Film Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Actor Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Actress Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Director Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Supporting Actor Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Supporting Actress Betting

BAFTA’s Betting

Oscars 2009 Betting: Best Actress in a Leading Role

Trevor Brody — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 18:10:22 +0000

At the time of writing, the betting for the Best Actress in a Leading Role looks fairly open, despite the presence of Kate Winslet at the top. There isn’t an obvious winner at the moment, but the other contenders are just as worthy, and could even shade favouritism before the big night.

9/4 Kate Winslet (Revolutionary Road)

Really should become a 7 time Oscar nominee, but whether she will finally win is another question. The Academy probably want to give her an award, and Kate will be hoping that they don’t classify her role in The Reader as a lead. Of the 10 actors that have been nominated in both the lead and supporting categories in the same year, 6 won an award. I think that The Reader, a film about the Holocaust, will go down better than Revolutionary Road. At 9/4, I’m happy to look elsewhere for a bet.

5/2 Meryl Streep (Doubt)

Hasn’t won since Sophie’s Choice, which was released in 1982! The film Doubt looks like a long shot in the Best Film betting, but Meryl Streep has the chance to win Best Actress. Her character is very likable, and the story focuses on sexism and coverups in the Catholic Church. I’m not sure how it will go down on the night, but her drift in the Golden Globes market is alarming, out to 3/1 from 5/2. The Golden Globes don’t always work out as a form guide before the Oscars, but I’d rather bet on an actress that was gathering momentum in the market.

7/2 Anne Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married)

The problem about the 7/2 on offer is that everyone loves Anne Hathaway in this movie, but opinion is divided on the film itself. The Academy loves the younger contenders in this category, meaning that Anne has a terrific chance. If Revolutionary Road flops, Hathaway could mop up at tasty odds of 7/2. She has made the transition from the ‘popcorn’ movies and is a good campaigner. She is best priced at 11/4 for a Golden Globe, so her true price for an Oscar may in fact be shorter than the 7/2. Taking it now is a bit risky before other bookmakers open markets, but I’m happy enough with the price.

5/1 Sally Hawkins (Happy-Go-Lucky)

If she gets nominated, Sally Hawkins has a good chance of winning. Paddy Power are of the same opinion, and go 5/1 from 8/1. She has picked up a few critics’ award, but the same was true for Naomi Watts, who didn’t get an Oscar nomination. My advice would be to tread carefully, but I would by no means rule her out.

6/1 Kristin Scott Thomas (Il y a longtemps que je t’aime)

8/1 Angelina Jolie could pick up a nomination this year, but she hasn’t had one since 1999. If she is back in favour, I fancy that Kristin Scott Thomas will be the casualty. The latter is also a 6/1 long shot for a Golden Globe, but she was brilliant in Il y a longtemps que je t’aime. It’s the only film that I’ve seen on this shortlist - Scott Thomas plays Juliette, who goes to live with her younger sister after a long spell in jail. French films punch above their weight at the Oscars, such as Amélie Poulain, Les Choristes and Le Scaphandre et Le Papillon, which got 4 nominations last year.

Recommendation:

4pts @ 7/2 Anne Hathaway Best Actress in a Leading Role

Latest Prices (22 February 2009):

1/3 Kate Winslet

14/1 Anne Hathaway

7/2 Meryl Streep

bookies.com is an odds comparison site, where you can check out both Oscars Betting and Golden Globes Betting:

Oscars 2009 Best Film Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Actor Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Actress Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Director Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Supporting Actor Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Supporting Actress Betting

BAFTA’s Betting

Oscars 2009 Betting Previews

Trevor Brody — Tue, 30 Dec 2008 19:26:23 +0000

It’s the time of year when the showbiz world turns their attention towards the Oscars, which take place on 22 February 2009. As we start a new year’s betting on Bookies Blog, we’ll be looking for some long term value bets to keep us afloat.

Over the next few days we’ll be looking at the front-runners in the main 3 categories, to scrutinise the favourites and see if there could be any upsets to the betting. Click the links to be taken to each individual preview or just go to our Oscars Betting section of the blog to find out the latest developments.

In the Directing category, Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire is 1/2 with Centrebet, followed by 3/1 David Fincher for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. The Dark Knight is a 14/1 outsider in the Best Film category, but director Christopher Nolan has a great chance in this one (10/1).

The best Supporting Actor category will be very prohibitive thanks to Heath Ledger, who must surely pick up the award for his performance as the Joker in The Dark Knight. Skybet have priced him at 1/4.

Penelope Cruz is the even money (1/1) favourite in the best Supporting Actress category, although 4/1 Viola Davis and 6/4 Kate Winslet are close behind. Kate Winslet is a potential nominee for 2 films this year: The Reader and Revolutionary Road. With 5 Golden Globe nominations to her name this year, she has to be considered from a betting angle.

The Adapted Writing category could also go the way of Slumdog Millionaire, which has 4 Golden Globe nominations. The story is about a child from Mumbai who makes it onto the Indian version of Who Wants to be a Millionaire? Others that will be in contention are Doubt and also The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.

In the Original Writing category, Vicky Cristina Barcelona could take it for Woody Allen. The romantic comedy has had great reviews and has had 4 Golden Globe Nominations. It got an 80% rating on Rotten Tomatoes and is Allen’s best film since Match Point in 2005. Rachel Getting Married and Milk will be at the front of the betting, but Changeling could be an outside bet. If I was to have a bet at this stage, I’d probably take WALL-E for some serious value. It has been gathering momentum and could make headlines this year. Expect it to take the Animated Feature Film category.

bookies.com is an odds comparison site, where you can check out the Oscars Betting:

Oscars 2009 Best Film Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Actor Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Actress Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Director Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Supporting Actor Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Supporting Actress Betting

BAFTAs 2009 Best Film Betting

BAFTAs 2009 Best Director Betting

BAFTAs 2009 Best Actor Betting

BAFTAs 2009 Best Actress Betting

BAFTAs 2009 Best Supporting Actor Betting

BAFTAs 2009 Best Supporting Actress Betting

BAFTAs 2009 Outstanding British Film Film Betting