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2009 Kentucky Derby Betting Update

Trevor Brody — Sat, 02 May 2009 09:30:16 +0000

Derby Favourite I WANT REVENGE can be backed at 7/2 with Blue Square this morning. He clearly won’t go off as short as last night’s impressive Oaks winner, 3/10 Rachel Alexandra!

Friesan Fire is still 7/1 with Victor Chandler, but has been cut to 5s with other firms. The colt has form over the wet surface.

Hold Me Back is another mover, 25/1 from 33s, but Godolphin’s Desert Party has attracted even more financial support, and is now 16/1. Punters will be hoping that he can reverse the Dubai form with Alan Garcia’s Regal Ransom.

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2009 Kentucky Derby Betting Preview

Trevor Brody — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 13:24:48 +0000

Back in February when we looked at the antepost prices, the Kentucky Derby betting odds were vastly different. Donativum was in the equation, Old Fashioned was the favourite and Dunkirk was into 16/1 from 33s.

Pioneerof The Nile and Chocolate Candy are both shorter prices, but our tip West Side Bernie (pictured) is still 40/1!

I recommend totebet.com for exotics, but let’s take a look to see if the British Bookies are still offering any value in the Kentucky Derby market:

11/4 I Want Revenge

I Want Revenge is very likely to be sent off as the favourite, after Quality Road pulled out due to foot problems. Jeff Mullins is ‘pretty satisfied’ with stall 13, as he hopes to be up there with the pace.

19 year old Joe Talamo rides the impressive winner of both the Wood Memorial and Gotham Stakes.

Mullins is still chasing his first win in a Triple Crown event, but I Want Revenge could be in the same class as last year’s favourite Big Brown. The jockey booking isn’t a negative, but at the prices I prefer West Side Bernie.

6/1 Dunkirk

Corals opened up there book by going 33/1 about the $3.7 million purchase Dunkirk. He is exceptionally well bred, but the last colt to win the Derby as an un-raced two year old was way back in 1882.

We’ve missed the fancy prices, by 6/1 still seems like a fair bet for the John Magnier-owned colt. He hasn’t won a stakes race, but he was a fair second to Quality Road in the Florida Derby, the race that Big Brown won before winning the first two legs of the Triple Crown.

The track was scraped that day, meaning that the surface was fast. If Quality Road lined up in the Derby, I’d back Dunkirk to reverse that form. Very strong candidate.

6/1 Pioneerof The Nile

The Pamplemousse was scratched from the Santa Anita Derby, so you can’t read into that form and back Pioneerof The Nile with any confidence. Not certain to handle the dirt and is a lazy horse. The second and third of that race both ran with credit: Chocolate Candy and Mr Hot Stuff. Garrett Gomez rides.

7/1 Friesan Fire

Has won his last three for trainer Larry Jones, who had last year’s second, Eight Belles. Won the Louisiana Derby by seven and a half lengths, but hasn’t been seen for seven weeks. The last Derby runner to win after a seven week break was Clyde Van Dusen in 1929.

The Louisiana win was over sloppy going, and with showers predicted, punters should keep on the right side of Friesan Fire.

Larry Jones insists that 2009 is his last Derby.

14/1 Chocolate Candy

Finished well in second to Pioneerof The Nile and is preferred at more than double the odds. He was only a length behind I Want Revenge in December and represents one of the West Coast’s best chances.

His sire was unbeaten in six starts and his Monday workout, five furlongs in 59.1s, suggests that the dirt surface won’t be an issue.

20/1 General Quarters

Claimed at Churchill Downs for only $20,000. He won the Blue Grass at Keeneland, but Hold Me Back can reverse the form of that race.

20/1 Desert Party

Second to Regal Ransom in the UAE Derby, but Frankie Dettori’s mount was sent off at 2/5. The colt was quiet after that reverse, but the Godolphin first string is back in form.

Worldly Manner finished seventh for the stable ten years ago, but Saeed Bin Suroor is more confident this year. Like his stablemate, he may not stay the extra furlong.

20/1 Regal Ransom

I fancy Desert Party to reverse the UAE Derby form, but Regal Ransom cannot be discounted. His 16/1 Derby win wasn’t a surprise to his trainer and Alan Garcia retains the ride. He is a keen sort that should be up there with the pace, but he may not stay the trip.

25/1 Musket Man

Musket Man was an impressive winner of the Tampa Bay Derby and is sure to run a big race at a tasty price. He was picked up for $15,000 as a yearling and is now attracting some giant offers. I think he’s one to consider for your exactas. Eibar Coa rides.

25/1 Papa Clem

Beat Old Fashioned in the Arkansas Derby in great style and is a lively outsider that could place.

33/1 Advice

Another one trained by Todd Pletcher. Beat Square Eddie in the Coolmore Lexington Stakes but we like Dunkirk.

33/1 Hold Me Back

Three wins have come on the synthetic surface, but he has acted well over the dirt in training. Sired by Giant’s Causeway, so should improve with each race.

40/1 West Side Bernie

Ran two solid races from poor draws in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and then in the Holy Bull Stakes. He also finished a creditable second to I Want Revenge in the Wood Memorial, and certainly wasn’t flattered – he had to race four wide on the home turn.

Work rider Stewart Elliott is on board, who won the Derby in 2004 on Smarty Jones. Rail draw is the only negative.

50/1 Mr Hot Stuff

Third in the Santa Anita Derby and won’t trouble the market leaders.

66/1 Summer Bird

Only three career starts, all on fast tracks. Pass.

100/1 Atomic Rain

Has only won a maiden and I think that owners George and Lori Hall have a great chance with West Side Bernie.

100/1 Flying Private

Needs to break quickly from Big Brown’s stall (20) to have any kind of chance. He is sired by a Derby winner and the trainer has won the Derby four times.

100/1 Join In The Dance

Todd Pletcher also has Dunkirk, but Join In The Dance is preferred to continue his record for having the last horse in each of the last three Derbys.

100/1 Mine That Bird

Fourth in the Sunland Derby – no chance.

100/1 Nowhere To Hide

Another horse that only just scraped in. Not one to consider for your exactas and trifectas.

Recommendation:

1. 40/1 West Side Bernie (Blue Square, Corals, Ladbrokes)

2. 6/1 Dunkirk (Betchronicle)

3. 25/1 Musket Man (Bet365, Corals, Sporting Bet)

Already Recommended:

1pt ew @ 40/1 West Side Bernie (Bet365)

Prices correct as of 30 April 2009.

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Kempton Park: Kentucky Derby Challenge Stakes Betting Preview

Trevor Brody — Tue, 17 Mar 2009 17:53:37 +0000

The Kentucky Derby Challenge Stakes will be run over 1m1f at 7.50pm on Wednesday. The race carries £80,000 in prize money, pretty generous compared to other all-weather races at Kempton Park.

The winner is guaranteed a place in the Kentucky Derby, even though Britain’s record in the race is shocking. Should they line up, they’ll receive a £100K bonus for their troubles.

There is a short run into the first bend, so runners drawn high are at a disadvantage. That’s flat racing for you, but the jumps season is by far from over.

Mafaaz is 11/2 for the Richard Hills – Sheikh Mohammed combination. He proved that he was a smart prospect by winning over 7f at this course and cost a tasty 400,000gns. He was next seen just behind Donativum and should be even better this year for that experience. Bred to stay this distance.

3/1 favourite Haashed runs for the same owner, although wears the black cap because it is considered to be second string. He won a maiden at Lingfield in November is promising style, so could be anything. Jockey Jamie Spencer has been in great form on the poly this winter.

6/1 Close Alliance is from the same yard as the favourite, and has had had the form of his Great Leighs maiden boosted by 3 winners. Well drawn and looks like my idea of a bet with Jimmy Fortune on board.

20/1 Shampagne is also well drawn, and has won his 3 starts on the all-weather. He has already raced 10 times, and could be vulnerable.

14/1 Akhenaten is drawn in 11 and is a bit of mystery. His previous win was in a 3-runner affair at Wolverhampton.

23/1 Deposer has form behind Square Eddie, but won’t be good enough in this contest. 33/1 Markyg is an appealing long shot, with 2 wins at Kempton to his name.

Recommendation:

1pt win @ 6/1 Close Alliance (Sporting Bet)

1pt win @ 33/1 Markyg (Paddy Power)

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Kentucky Derby Challenge Betting

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Antepost Kentucky Derby 2009 Betting Preview

Trevor Brody — Sun, 22 Feb 2009 16:08:26 +0000

Less than 70 days to go to the ‘most exciting 2 minutes in sport’ – the 2009 Kentucky Derby, which takes place May 2 at Churchill Downs.

The British Bookmakers are already taking bets on the race, and have priced up Old Fashioned as the 10/1 favourite. Old Fashioned won the Southwest Stakes the other day, in the same time as 2004 Derby winner Smarty Jones.

The last European runners were the 2 sent over by Aidan O’Brien in 2002, but there could be another challenger this year. Kempton Park is staging the Kentucky Derby Challenge Stakes on March 18, which gives us something to look forward to between the Cheltenham and Aintree meetings.

The winner is guaranteed a place in the Derby and will receive a £70,000 bonus if he lines up on the big day. O’Brien has 3 possible runners in Born To Be King, Chief Lone Eagle and Great Wisdom. Gerard Butler could enter Pachattack, who is by a good dirt sire – Pulpit.

However, the last filly to win the Derby was in 1988. Eight Belles was the 29th filly to run, who finished 2nd to Big Brown in last year’s race.

Dunkirk is 16/1 from 33/1 with Corals, but has only run twice. Neither of those wins was in a stakes race, but the bookies were impressed.

He was a $3.7 million purchase in 2007 – Old Fashioned fetched $800,000 at the time. Not convinced? His pedigree is tailor-made for the Derby. Mother Secret Status won the Kentucky Oaks, whilst his sire is proven at Grade 1 level.

The major concern with having a bet is that the only unraced 2 year old to win the Derby was Apollo in 1882. The history books would have to be re-written if Dunkirk triumphs in May.

16/1 Pioneer Of The Nile won his 3 year old debut in the $200,000 Robert B. Lewis Stakes in California.

20/1 Donativum won the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf, but no horse from Britain has ever won the Derby.

Flat Out is also 20/1 with Blue Square, but was beaten by Old Fashioned by more than 4 lengths in the Southwest Stakes.

20/1 Midshipman has won the Del Mar Futurity and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and was then bought by Godolphin, who have been in great form at Nad Al Sheba. We should see him run in Dubai on March 5 in listed company.

40/1 West Side Bernie was 6th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but had to overcome a wide draw. He then had another lousy draw in January, finishing 3rd in the Holy Bull Stakes.

33/1 Chocolate Candy is another at a big price. He won the El Camino Real Derby in Northern California – his 4th win in 8.

Recommendation:

1pt ew @ 40/1 West Side Bernie (bet365: 1/4 odds 1,2,3)

bookies.com is your best bet for comparing international horse racing odds:

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