Roger Federer has been nibbled at in the betting ahead of Sunday night’s final against Rafael Nadal, and is best priced at 7/10 with Boylesports. It’s not that the bookies have made an error in chalking up their prices, they are being led by the betting public, and have little to lose following the early exit of the well backed Andy Murray.

The logic that make Federer favourite runs a bit like this: Nadal has had one day’s less rest and had a long game against Verdasco. True, but Rafa should be able to recover in time for the final, and I’m not at all concerned about our 4/1 tip.

His 5-set victory against Verdasco isn’t cause for concern – Verdasco proved that he is the form player by turning over Andy Murray. Meanwhile Federer only had to overcome Roddick is straight sets.

The World No. 1 shouldn’t be dismissed, and is 7/5 with Bet Chronicle. I’d also think about backing him at 10/1 to win the 2009 Grand Slam at this stage, because you’re bound to get a run for your money if he triumphs tomorrow.

You can also take 12/1 that the 2 players contest every Grand Slam final this year. It’s an even money chance that they meet in the Wimbledon final again, and they’ve contested the French Open final in each of the last 3 years.

I won’t be topping up my Nadal bet, but those who didn’t take the price when advised to can have a look at the Set Betting. If you fancy an epic, Nadal is 6/1 with Sky Bet to win 3-2.

bookies.com compares tennis odds between the top UK bookmakers:

Federer v Nadal Match Betting

Federer v Nadal Set Betting

Federer v Nadal Handicap Betting

Federer v Nadal First Ace Betting

Safina v S. Williams Match Betting

Olympic Champion Elena Dementieva looks like a terrific bet on paper at 8/1, to win the Australian Open. She has just won 2 WTA titles in Australia – Auckland and Sydney. The world No. 4 is unbeaten in 10 matches and has been cut by some bookmakers to 13/2.

Everything in place for a cast-iron bet. But her form needs closer inspection – she has never won a Grand Slam and hasn’t reached a final since 2004, where she lost 2 in straight sets. Recent form is one thing, but if she has a temperamental problem at Grand Slams it will pay to oppose her, at least until she wins one.

Venus Williams is just shading favouritism on Betfair, but most bookmakers go 7/2 for both Williams sisters. Serena has won the Australian Open 3 times in the last 6 years, but pundits still give Venus a better chance this year. Serena only managed to win 4 games against Dementieva in Sydney, but has won the Open on alternate years: 2003, 2005 and 2007.

Victor Chandler go evens that one of the sisters wins it, but I’d probably be on the 4/5 side of the fence – any other player to win. As well as having 10/1 Safina on your side, you’d also have the likes of 7/1 Jankovic and 12/1 Ivanovic. World No.1 Jankovic is still a maiden, which is why many will prefer to pick one of the Williams sisters.

Of those at bigger prices, Canbet’s 100/1 for Amélie Mauresmo looks far too big. She beat Ivanovic 6-3 6-2 in Brisbane but had to pull out of the semis with an injury. She is feeling better now and won this tournament in 2006.

Recommendation:

2pts 4/5 Winner not to be a Williams Sister

1/2 pt @ 100/1 Mauresmo to win Australian Open 2009

bookies.com compares tennis odds between the top UK bookmakers:

Australian Open Womens Title Betting

Australian Open Womens Williams Sisters v The Field Betting

Australian Open Mens Winner Betting

Australian Open Mens Will There be a New Winner? Betting

Australian Open Mens Big 4 v The Field Betting

The first Grand Slam of the year gets under way on Monday in Melbourne, and the Mens Betting is very tight at the top. At one point, it looked like Andy Murray would be sent off favourite, but Roger Federer is 11/4 after winning the Kooyong Classic.

Murray is 3/1 with Sportingbet, although most high street bookies are only prepared to lay you 5/2. He has beaten Federer twice this year and also Rafa Nadal in the Abu Dhabi exhibition tournament. He also won the Doha tournament last year, but crashed out to Tsonga in the Australian Open last year. If you are tempted by Murray, have a look at the specials markets where Skybet are offering some tasty prices.

You can get 12/1 that he wins the title after saving match point in any match, or 33/1 to win the title without dropping a set. My advice is to not get carried away, as I think this Murray-mania means there is good value to be found elsewhere. If you aren’t a fan, how about 6/5 that he doesn’t win a set 6-0? Also of interest could be his stage of elimination – Boylesports offer 15/2 for him to crash out in the Quarter Finals.

With question marks over Federer‘s 2008, I’m happy to take 4/1 for Nadal to win. The reason Nadal’s odds are inflated is that he’s been out of action for 2 months with tendonitis, and he recently lost a match to Gael Monfils (66/1). That was a 2 set match and I’d expect him to give a better showing in Melbourne. He won the Olympic title on a similar surface last year in Beijing.

His draw is fine, and it looks like the first real test will be Murray in the semis. Players to watch out for on the way are 250/1 Hewitt and 150/1 Gasquet. Richard Gasquet is extremely talented, but I will only take a financial interest on the grass surface. He is currently 66/1 for Wimbledon.

8/1 Novak Djokovic lost out in the ATP Sydney to Jarkko Nieminen, who is a 300/1 shot. David Nalbandian beat him in the final, and will go into the Australian Open full of confidence. He has been cut into 20/1 from 60s, and looks to have the best outside chance. You can get 4/1 with Skybet that someone from outside the ‘Big 4′ wins the Mens title this year.

Recommendation:

3pts @ 4/1 Nadal to win Australian Open

5ps @ 6/5 Andy Murray NOT to win a set 6-0

bookies.com compares tennis odds between the top UK bookmakers:

Australian Open Mens Winner Betting

Australian Open Mens Will There be a New Winner? Betting

Australian Open Mens Big 4 v The Field Betting

Australian Open Andy Murray Specials

Australian Open Mens Winning Nation Betting

Australian Open Mens Federer to Lose Set Betting

Australian Open Womens Title Betting

Australian Open Womens Williams Sisters v The Field Betting