9/4 Kate Winslet (Revolutionary Road)

Really should become a 7 time Oscar nominee, but whether she will finally win is another question. The Academy probably want to give her an award, and Kate will be hoping that they don’t classify her role in The Reader as a lead. Of the 10 actors that have been nominated in both the lead and supporting categories in the same year, 6 won an award. I think that The Reader, a film about the Holocaust, will go down better than Revolutionary Road. At 9/4, I’m happy to look elsewhere for a bet.

5/2 Meryl Streep (Doubt)

Hasn’t won since Sophie’s Choice, which was released in 1982! The film Doubt looks like a long shot in the Best Film betting, but Meryl Streep has the chance to win Best Actress. Her character is very likable, and the story focuses on sexism and coverups in the Catholic Church. I’m not sure how it will go down on the night, but her drift in the Golden Globes market is alarming, out to 3/1 from 5/2. The Golden Globes don’t always work out as a form guide before the Oscars, but I’d rather bet on an actress that was gathering momentum in the market.

7/2 Anne Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married)

The problem about the 7/2 on offer is that everyone loves Anne Hathaway in this movie, but opinion is divided on the film itself. The Academy loves the younger contenders in this category, meaning that Anne has a terrific chance. If Revolutionary Road flops, Hathaway could mop up at tasty odds of 7/2. She has made the transition from the ‘popcorn’ movies and is a good campaigner. She is best priced at 11/4 for a Golden Globe, so her true price for an Oscar may in fact be shorter than the 7/2. Taking it now is a bit risky before other bookmakers open markets, but I’m happy enough with the price.

5/1 Sally Hawkins (Happy-Go-Lucky)

If she gets nominated, Sally Hawkins has a good chance of winning. Paddy Power are of the same opinion, and go 5/1 from 8/1. She has picked up a few critics’ award, but the same was true for Naomi Watts, who didn’t get an Oscar nomination. My advice would be to tread carefully, but I would by no means rule her out.

6/1 Kristin Scott Thomas (Il y a longtemps que je t’aime)

8/1 Angelina Jolie could pick up a nomination this year, but she hasn’t had one since 1999. If she is back in favour, I fancy that Kristin Scott Thomas will be the casualty. The latter is also a 6/1 long shot for a Golden Globe, but she was brilliant in Il y a longtemps que je t’aime. It’s the only film that I’ve seen on this shortlist - Scott Thomas plays Juliette, who goes to live with her younger sister after a long spell in jail. French films punch above their weight at the Oscars, such as Amélie Poulain, Les Choristes and Le Scaphandre et Le Papillon, which got 4 nominations last year.

Recommendation:

4pts @ 7/2 Anne Hathaway Best Actress in a Leading Role

Latest Prices (22 February 2009):

1/3 Kate Winslet

14/1 Anne Hathaway

7/2 Meryl Streep

bookies.com is an odds comparison site, where you can check out both Oscars Betting and Golden Globes Betting:

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