Tuesday’s Mares Hurdle was a two horse race in the betting, but Friday’s Denman v Kauto showdown in the Totesport Gold Cup has been billed as one of the races of the century, and has a similar betting complexion.

So far this Festival, the Bookies Blog team have seen the two odds-on favourites get comprehensively walloped. Dunguib and Master Minded disappointed many, but there will be some each-way punters that saw those results coming. Will Big Bucks win the World Hurdle easily today at 4/6? Maybe. But that’s not a price I want to be taking in a competitive championship race.

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8/1 Cooldine, 8/1 Imperial Commander and 14/1 Tricky Trickster are all worthy Gold Cup winners, but the paying punters on course want this year’s Gold Cup to materialise into a two horse race.

The one worry for trainer Paul Nicholls’ two ten year olds is that 15 of the last 16 winners have been aged between seven and nine…

Are you a Kauto fan? Is he still a bet at 8/13, or is Denman gigantic each-way value at 4/1?

4/6 KAUTO STAR

Kauto Star has been kept fresh since his blistering win in the King George on Boxing Day 2009, and it bodes well for Kauto fans that six of the eight previous winners of this race did not run in the same calendar year.

This blog has made no secret of its allegiance to the great Kauto Star, and its just a real pleasure to see him winning over and over again. Even if he were to fall at the first fence and get retired after this race, he will still be remembered as a true great. However, optimists will be already backing him for the 2011 Gold Cup at 5/2 with Skybet!

Kauto won his 4th King George Chase last year by 36 lengths, but on the balance of his performances, he prefers flat tracks like Kempton Park.

I don’t think the real Kauto turned up in 2008, and it would be unwise to pick holes in his performances. Ever since being he has sported a noseband, he hasn’t made a single jumping error. C’mon Ruby Walsh!

4/1 DENMAN

Much has been made about Denman’s new jockey, AP McCoy, but the fact is that Sam Thomas is injured and therefore he wouldn’t have got the ride anyway. Kauto’s jockey Ruby Walsh was quoted in The Times this week as saying that National Hunt results are 99% down to the horse itself. So yes, McCoy had a shocker in the Aon Chase and fell from Denman at short odds of 1/6, but Denman should improve a bundle for that run.

Front-runners have won six of the last 28 renewals of the Gold Cup, but I fear that Denman may have a fight on his hands this year up front with the pacey Carruthers. Ruby Walsh knows Denman well enough not to let him get first run up the Cheltenham hill, so don’t expect to see Kauto Star come from way off the pace.

On ratings Denman has 11lb to find with the favourite, but his fans will still hope that Denman can repeat his 2008 win and ‘break Kauto’s heart’ one final time.

The Newbury debacle wasn’t the ideal prep race though, and he certainly has to recover mentally. To his benefit, Denman has only had 13 runs over fences, compared with Kauto’s 23. Therefore some pundits could argue that Denman has more scope for improvement, albeit at the ripe old age of 10.

Corals tempted punters with 9/2 last week about Denman, but that was hoovered up by his legion of fans. If the expected rain doesn’t come though, his starting price could be bigger than the 4s currently available.

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An interesting market is the ‘Gold Cup without Kauto and Denman’. Imperial Commander and Cooldine have both won around the course, and are the 15/8 joint favourites. Calgary Bay has been the subject of bizarre support and is 16s from 33s.

bookies.com is your No.1 bet for comparing Cheltenham Festival betting odds:

Triumph Hurdle

Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle

Cheltenham Gold Cup

The first race of next week’s Cheltenham Festival, the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, will determine the fortunes of many punters, especially those travelling across the Irish Sea. Dunguib is the horse in question, and is the first so-called ‘banker’ to run. Combined odds of 6/1 about Dunguib, Big Bucks, Master Minded and Kauto Star all winning will tempt many – but will punters still be sitting pretty after the Supreme Novices’ – run over 2m110y?

9/10 Dunguib

Dunguib is undoubtedly the latest National Hunt superstar and he has won 7 out of his 9 races impressively. The most telling of which was last year’s Champion Bumper win at the Festival:

His jumping over obstacles has been atrocious though, and many pundits think that it will cost him the race. Those having large bets on this odds-on favourite will hope that his engine ensures that he trounces a weak looking field.

Last year’s favourite in this race, Cousin Vinny, was beaten at odds of 9/4. Another negative, is that Dunguib’s regular jockey, Brian O’Connell, has never ridden the Cheltenham hurdles course before.

7/1 Get Me Out Of Here

Get Me Out Of Here looks the natural each-way choice in this field. The JP McManus-owned gelding has a progressive profile with form that reads nicely: 11111. The last ’1′ being the Totesport Trophy Handicap at Newbury, which was hotly contested by some useful types.

AP McCoy rides for boss Jonjo O’Neill, and the Champion jockey would love to have a winner before taking the Gold Cup ride on 4/1 Denman on Friday 19th.

12/1 Blackstairmountain

Ruby Walsh takes this ride, the first of many next week. Willie Mullins looks to have a formidable team one again for this year’s Festival, but Blackstairmountain only has a maiden hurdle victory at Punchestown to his name. Such inexperience is a concern in this frantic race.

12/1 Menorah

Menorah is the 15/8 second favourite in the ‘Best of British’ market, contested by Oscar Whisky and Get Me Out Of Here. A slow pace was blamed for his recent odds-on Ascot defeat, but I’d want my cash to be carried by a last time out winner. Richard Johnson is amongst the best jockeys around Cheltenham, but he is yet to win this curtain-raiser.

20/1 Oscar Whisky

Yet another Irish bred gelding in the race, and another one that is unbeaten over hurdles. What to make of his wins though? They have all come at short odds in weak-looking races.

That said, jockey Barry Geraghty is a plus and Nicky Henderson is the leading Festival trainer.

20/1 Dan Breen

Has been backed into 20s from 33/1 last week. His Doncaster win could perhaps be a good bit of form, as the second placed Tanto Faz went on to win a race at Stratford. I can’t get too excited and I’d still rather back the machine that is Dunguib!

bookies.com is your No.1 bet for comparing Cheltenham Festival betting odds:

Supreme Novices Hurdle

Arkle Chase

Champion Hurdle

Neptune Investment Management Novices Hurdle

RSA Chase

Champion Chase

Ryanair Chase

World Hurdle

Triumph Hurdle

Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle

Cheltenham Gold Cup

The Queen Mother Champion Chase is run over 2m on Wednesday, and features the highest rated chaser in the world.

Master Minded (pictured) is owned by Clive Smith and trained by Paul Nicholls. Last year he became the youngest ever winner of the race as a 5 year old, beating previous winner Voy Por Ustedes by 19 lengths, without coming off the bridle.

Having won the Tingle Creek and Victor Chandler Chase, he is best priced with Bet Chronicle at 2/5, but most of the other bookies make him a 1/3 shot. OK, there isn’t much between those 2 prices, but it may interest you if you are looking to ‘print some money’.

Blue Square have tried to add some extra interest into the market, with betting on Master Minded’s Starting Price. ’1/3′ is an even money shot, whilst they go 2/1 for a 1/2 SP. 5/2 to win by 14 lengths or more will appeal to many.

My initial instinct would be to lay him, having every other in the field on your side. At the price, you’d be risking £10 to win £30. After all, he has to clear 12 fences and he fell on his UK chasing debut.

His jumping is excellent nowadays and he’ll take all the beating. The each-way terms for the other runners are incredibly attractive.

Big Zeb is next in the market at 10/1, and will be ridden by Choc Thornton. I don’t fancy the horse, but 10/1 each way is a much better bet than 3/1 in the market without Master Minded. You’ll get a decent reward if he places, and you can always hope to get the favourite turned over. After all, there is no such thing as a Festival banker.

Big Zeb fell last time out at Punchestown (6/5), but was travelling well.

14/1 Well Chief was the evens favourite in 2007, but David Pipe thinks he has a chance.

16/1 Tidal Bay will probably join Voy Por Ustedes in the Ryanair Chase.

Nicky Henderson has 14/1 Petit Robin, who should finish closer to Master Minded now running left-handed. A very good place bet.

20/1 Twist Magic ran a blinder in the Tingle Creek only to fall, but is the second string. A horse of such class should be a shorter price with drying ground this year.

Recommendation:

1pt each way @ 20/1 Twist Magic (Ladbrokes, 1/4 odds 1-2-3)

bookies.com is your best bet for comparing odds for the Cheltenham Festival.

Champion Hurdle Betting

Champion Chase Betting

World Hurdle Betting

Gold Cup Betting

11/8 Kauto Star

Kauto was odds-on to win his 3rd King George before he slipped up in the Betfair Chase, but drifted to a general 6/4. Kauto is now best priced at 11/8 to win the race, as punters simply cannot oppose a horse with Cheltenham Gold Cups in the bag. Champion trainer Paul Nicholls has been luke-warm as of late, and his double on Saturday was eclipsed by Nicky Henderson‘s big race 103/1 treble. Henderson won about £250k in prize money, meaning that some firms are opening books on the Champion Trainer market.

Don’t get me wrong, I love Kauto Star, but 11/8 is a bit short for a horse who has lost 3 out of his last 4. He has been turned over by Our Vic and Snoopy Loopy in this field, and Tamarinbleu travelled so well at Haydock that he asked questions of Sam Thomas early on.

Ruby Walsh is the man in the saddle this time, who knows Kauto’s quirks much better, and is capable of handling the big race pressure. Nicholls won’t campaign Kauto Star at Haydock again, because he doesn’t like the new chase track. Kempton Park suits Kauto much better, because the emphasis is on speed. 

4/1 Voy Por Ustedes

Very talented but question marks over whether he will stay the 3m for Alan King. If he does to good effect, expect to see him leap to the fore of the Gold Cup market. I say that because ‘Voy Por’ is very classy and even beat Master Minded at Aintree. Choc Thornton is one of my favourite jockeys and I am tempted to let him carry my money for this one, after he appeared to like the 2m4f at Aintree that day. One to consider.

8/1 Air Force One

Has been well supported from 12s recently, probably because the ground and track will suit him. I’m reluctantly leaving him out of calculations, because I don’t feel he has the quality required to win at this level. He was 2nd in the Hennessy, finishing in front of Snoopy Loopy. Trainer Charlie Mann regards him highly and will be hoping for a big run.

9/1 Imperial Commander

This represents a massive step up in class for Imperial Commander, and we would’ve known more about him if the Boylesports Gold Cup hadn’t been abandoned. His last run was the win in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, after which many thought he was a potential superstar. The form has been well advertised by Barber’s Shop, but the form of the Twiston-Davies yard is a slight concern. NTD has had only 1 winner from 43 runners, meaning that Imperial Commander has drifted out from 7s. I’d rather look elsewhere for a horse with proven class at the top level.

10/1 Our Vic

Has been supported into 10s from a high of 30/1, mainly after trainer Pipe has reported that he has been in blistering form and has schooled well with Grand National winning jockey Timmy Murphy. The Pipe yard is now on the cold list, but they have a knack for taking these big races. Our Vic’s last season reads 2211 and I would rather back him than Imperial Commander or Air Force One, who aren’t proven at this level. Perhaps Our Vic wants less than 3m but he was 2nd in the race last season. According to the lad who rides him out, he is ‘better than ever’

21/1 Tamarinbleu

Ran very well fresh in the Betfair Chase, only to be done on the line by Snoopy Loopy, who ate up the ground. I love a front-runner and I think that Pricewise antepost selection (at 20/1) will give a good account for himself around Kempton. He travelled much better than Kauto Star in his last race, and I fancy that he’ll turn the tables on Snoopy Loopy after his break since the November race.

22/1 Snoopy Loopy

According to Peter Bowen he has been schooling well and he was supplemented for the race at a cost of £10,000. His record of consistently placing (or better) at the highest level makes Snoopy a terrific each way bet. When will the bookies take note? He was weak in the betting for the Peterborough Chase, in which he finished 2nd to Monet’s Garden at 9/1 over a trip which was too sharp for him. For a horse that keeps improving, the price is insulting. Oppose at your peril. 

50/1 Albertas Run

We tipped Tony McCoy’s Albertas Run for the Henessy last month, but he was pulled up on a day when McCoy scored a four-timer. Jonjo O’Neill has said that key to his run is the ground, which was unsuitable last time. If he gets the good ground that is forecast, he could run a very big race indeed. 

53/1 Briareus

One for the Balding team, he is a huge horse but a decent jumper. He won at Kempton over 2m in a Class 2 Chase, but connections are confident that he will stay the 3m. With decent form in the book that price looks a bit big to me, although I agree that others are more appealing.

61/1 Exotic Dancer

Is 5/1 for the Lexus Chase; this is a horse that is extremely profitable to oppose. We advised a place lay in the Betfair Chase but be warned, the Lexus doesn’t look as strong this year.

1000/1 Mont Misere

Pulled up at Huntingdon and very easy to discount.

Recommendation:

I’d rather just watch this intriguing race, but if pressed for a selection, I’d go for Our Vic, each way. That said I’ll still be supporting Kauto Star.

1pt each way @ 10/1 Our Vic

King George VI Betting

Christmas Hurdle Betting

Coral Welsh National Betting

Lexus Chase Betting

Paddy Power Chase Betting