Channel 4 today has action from Newbury and Haydock, but the feature race of the day is the Winter Derby at Lingfield Park, run over 1m2f at 3.05pm.

The Group 3 race will be run on the all-weather surface, and has £100,000 in prize money up for grabs.

Ladbrokes go 5/2 about Premio Loco, who has 6 wins to his name from 11 starts. His 2 wins this year have come on the poly over a mile at Kempton and Lingfield, and he is bred to stay the mile and a quarter.

As with most favourites, this one isn’t for me, and looks set to drift in the market.

There has been a bit of money for 5/1 Re Barolo this morning, who is very reliable on this surface. He likes to come from behind, so backers should wait for the race to start to get their money down on Betfair. With 12 runners in the field, there is always the chance that he doesn’t get a clear passage.

13/2 Bronze Cannon looks good value with Ryan Moore on board, but he was a bit of a disappointment last year. The distance could be too sharp.

25/1 Halicarnassus can’t be trusted and is drawn wide. 80/1 Baylini is on a losing run, whilst 33/1 Docofthebay is out of form.

Personally I fancy 9/1 Without A Prayer who put in a couple of solid runs in Dubai. The draw (9) is a worry, so I’ll just have it as a saver.

The other bet is 28/1 outsider Mahadee. He will like a strong pace and gets the trip. Many think he is out of his depth at this level, but he is worth a small punt with Jamie Spencer on board.

Recommendation:

1pt each way @ 28/1 Mahadee (Corals, 1/5, 1-2-3)

1pt win @ 9/1 Without A Prayer (Bet365)

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Winter Derby Betting

Kentucky Derby Betting

William Hill Lincoln Handicap Betting

Another great Saturday of racing is upon us, with the Newbury Gold Cup taking centre stage. The Package is the 5/1 favourite with totesport, and looks very well weighted for David Pipe. Top weight is a big ask for Paul Nicholls‘ 10/1 Natal, but punters shouldn’t discount 20/1 Mr Pointment.

The 17 runner handicap is certainly the betting race of the day; with the bookies paying out 1/4 the odds on the first 4 home.

Jumps racing fans have a feast, with meetings from Newbury, Kempton, Kelso and Doncaster.

Grand National winner Comply or Die could run in the Grimthorpe Handicap if the ground hasn’t dried too much, but 12/1 Apollo Creed would be my bet.

I’ll be looking to recoup some of my Ballymore Properties antepost bet in the Premier Kelso Hurdle.

The recent dry spell means that Wendel will probably swerve the Festival, and head straight to Aintree afterwards.

The ground at Kelso will be soft, good to soft in places. Any rain that falls tomorrow will be very welcome for 10/11 Wendel, whose 2 wins at Plumpton mean that he won’t mind the sharp, left-handed track.

Denis O’Regan, Howard Johnson‘s top jockey, rides at Doncaster. 12/1 Doeslessthanme has been beaten by Alfie Flits, whilst 12/1 Teenage Idol is the 2nd string.

50/1 Mr Woods looks out of his depth at this level, and 11/1 Knockara Beau probably wants further. George Charlton won the race in 2007 with Bywell Beau.

5/2 Alfie Flits should give Wendel more to do. He was a smart performer on the flat, racing against the likes of Yeats.

At Kempton he ran a good race in 4th, giving weight away to Ainama and Trenchant. He will travel well, and may go odds-on in running. The final 2 furlongs could just find him out, which is why I’d rather Wendel carry my money, who promises to stay the trip.

Unlike last time, Wendel isn’t a banker, but a good bet nevertheless.

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Newbury‘s mouth-watering card has been lost to the elements, but we’re praying that tomorrow’s re-scheduled Aon Chase goes ahead at Kempton Park.

The attraction is Denman, last year’s Gold Cup hero; who is a 4/7 chance in the Grade 2 Levy Board Chase. The reason he isn’t a silly price like 1/10 is the right handed track and the concern over his well-being. We haven’t seen him on the track for almost 11 months, and Saturday’s race should shake up the 2009 Gold Cup market.

Denman is 15/8 with Blue Square for the Cheltenham feature race, but regular Bookies Blog readers will know that I have taken a liking to 3/1 Kauto Star. If Denman flops tomorrow, I won’t write him off, but I’d expect the bookmakers to cut stable-mate Kauto to about 6/4.

The 2:50 Levy Board Chase is extremely difficult to find a betting angle, but punters would do well to find an each way alternative. The bookmakers have covered that option, by only offering 2 places in the 7 runner race.

6/1 Alberta’s Run will be popular with AP McCoy supporters, but this is a horse that the blog has never got right. We fancied him in the Hennessey at big odds, but he then ran a big race at 25/1 behind Kauto Star on good ground at Kempton. The going is crucial to Alberta’s, who won’t be at home in tomorrow’s soft ground.

If there was 8 runners I’d be tempted to smash into either 6/1 Joe Lively or 14/1 Madison Du Berlais, who will both relish the testing conditions. With only 2 places I’ll have a cheeky few quid on the forecast, but a Denman victory would be good for racing.

bookies.com compares odds between bookmakers for antepost horse racing:

Levy Board Chase Betting
Cheltenham Gold Cup 09 Betting

The feature race of tomorrow’s televised cards is the Hennessy Gold Cup, where 17 runners will each be hoping to emulate Denman‘s victory last year.

2.40 Newbury HENNESSY GOLD CUP CHASE 3m21/2f

11/2 Big Buck’s (167)

Stablemate Denman won this race last year at similar odds, and we all know what happened next. Paul Nicholls has been talking this one up for some time now, earning the horse ambitious 25/1 quotes for the Gold Cup. Even if he was to win this race, I wouldn’t be sure about backing him for the festival. Big Buck’s made a few mistakes at Aintree in his last race, and he’ll need to put in a better performance to win this. Kauto Star was hugely disappointing last weekend, meaning that the bookies are happy to push the horse out to 11/2 from 5/1.

6/1 Air Force One (168)

Reported to be in the ‘form of his life’ by trainer Charlie Mann, and should come on for his Ascot run, in which he finished 2nd to Roll Along. A decent alternative to the favourite, but you’d be happier taking the 10/1 on offer earlier this month.

7/1 Character Building (157)

A big scopey chaser, this one fills the Denman mold, who he finished 3rd to in last year’s edition. He stays well and jumps fluently and currently well fancied for the Grand National at 25/1

8/1 Island Flyer (166)

Should improve for his appearance at Wincanton and carried the ideal weight, 10 stone. No surprise to see that he has been subject to a mini gamble, and has been halved in price from 16′s.

9/1 Albertas Run (165)

Won the SunAlliance at Cheltenham last season, and I think he could well turn the tables on Big Buck’s after finishing 3rd in the same race at Aintree. The race wasn’t run to suit, but the Hennessy should have a strong gallop as the Newbury course is flat. He didn’t give a true account of himself at Carlisle this month because of the ground, but is entitled to come on for the run. AP McCoy’s ride has been supported into 9/1, a price that I’m happy to take.

14/1 Oedipe (172)

Nicky Henderson is in terrific form and Oedipe looks to have a good chance, having found 2m4f inadequate at Punchestown. Will go on any ground and shouldn’t need prep race.

16/1 Slim Pickings (160)

Perhaps he doesn’t stay the Grand National distance, so he’ll be one to keep an eye on this Saturday. Will jump well and should be tip-top after a 2m prep race at Navan. Each-way chance.

16/1 Royal County Star (160)

The Irish haven’t won this race for some time now, but Tony Martin will be hoping that a prep race at Navan has blown away the seasonal cobwebs.

18/1 High Chimes (160)

Horse has been on the upgrade but more will be required to win a top class race like this. Another that will welcome any rain before the off.

19/1 Dear Villez (160)

Won the Munster National and will love the ground. Could well run a big race for Paul Nicholls.

21/1 Snoopy Loopy (172)

Snoopy is going for the Order of Merit and was a shock winner of the Betfair Chase last week. His big price probably reflects the view that the 2 races are too close together, but don’t rule him out!

25/1 Verasi (157)

Reported to be fit and well and will welcome the forecast 5mm to 6mm rain between now and the race. Trainer gives him an each-way chance.

30/1 Knowhere (167)

Will find it difficult under top weight, but Denman defied the same penalty to win it last year. This horse is classy on his day but probably best watched. Having beaten Snoopy Loopy and Exotic Dancer last time out, I make him around a 15/1 shot.

40/1 Always Waning (163)

Likes a strong pace, but Peter Bowen is probably relying on Snoopy Loopy to get in the money. Targeting the National, in which he is 100/1 in the antepost market.

50/1 My Will

Hasn’t raced since April 2007, and jockey booking confirms that Big Buck’s is the stable’s main hope.

50/1 Madison Du Berlais (168)

Was ‘lazy’ at Ascot when beaten by Air Force One.

66/1 Monkerhostin (167)

A massive price for such an honest horse. Monkerhostin won the Bet365 Chase last season at Sandown but disappointed in the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby when he made a mistake. Phillip Hobbs believes the horse will act on the ground and will like the course. Let’s hope that we aren’t discounting a big price winner after we thought 50/1 Snoopy Loopy was a massive price in the Betfair Chase last weekend.

Recommendation:

2pt each way 9/1 Albertas Run

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