Jeff Bridges is the red hot favourite with the bookmakers at 1/6 (bet $60 to win $10 profit) to win Best Actor at this year’s Oscars. Bridges is nominated for his performance as Otis ‘Bad’ Blake in Crazy Heart, and his short odds are justifable given that he has recently won a Golden Globe.

Before punters pile into Jeff Bridges, it is worth bearing in mind that Mickey Rourke failed to complete the Best Actor double in last years Academy Awards, as he was beaten to the Oscar by Sean Penn.

The story line of Crazy Heart has been criticised as mundane by some critics, but the overwhelming consensus is that Jeff Bridges takes the film to another level. His character is an alcoholic country musician, who enters a relationship with a young journalist. On Rotten Tomatoes, the film has a 92% ‘fresh’ rating.

Since the Best Leading Actor market opened on Betfair, $16,000 out of a total of $18,000 has been traded on Bridges.

George Clooney has taken an alarming drift in the market out to 18/1 from 4/1 on the exchange, which would suggest that his chances are slim. His film, Up In The Air, has received a total of six Oscar nominations.

If anything, it is actually Colin Firth that has been backed against the odds-on favourite, and he is at 12/1 with Bet365. It is only his first Oscars nomination, and his momentum has been derived from success at the BAFTAs and at the Venice Film Festival.

Morgan Freeman is 25/1 for Invictus and Jeremy Renner can also be backed at long odds.

bookies.com is your best bet for comparing Oscars 2010 betting odds:

Best Actor Betting Odds

Best Actress Betting Odds

Best Director Betting Odds

Best Picture Betting Odds

Best Supporting Actress Betting Odds

Our Oscars Betting section is well worth a look, but many of the prices have changed since we embarked on the value hunt at the turn of the year. Slumdog Millionaire was an early 13/8 with Paddy Power, but is now 1/6.

We said that it was ‘nailed on’ at 4/9, but we forecast that it could go off shorter in the betting if it performed well at the BAFTAs. It won 7 of the 10 BAFTAs it was nominated for. Danny Boyle is now 1/7 to be Best Director.

Each major category has a warm favourite, but I’m not alone in feeling that not all of them will oblige on the night. Kate Winslet is now 4/9 for Best Actress, whilst Mickey Rourke is 4/7 with Blue Square for Best Actor.

Sean Penn is still in with a shout at 21/10, but our tip Richard Jenkins is a 66/1 no-hoper. Heath Ledger is 1/33 for Best Supporting Actor – surely punters will be ‘printing money’ on the night!

Penelope Cruz is 13/20 for Best Supporting Actress, but there has been a bit of late money for 14/1 Amy Adams.

Don’t worry if you missed the early prices, you can still have a bet on Kate’s acceptance speech with Paddy Power. It’s 4/6 that she cries and 9/4 that she thanks the Academy first in her speech.

It’s 10/1 that a nominated actress is photographed at the Oscars with her nipple uncovered and a juicy 12/1 that an Oscar gong is dropped on the night!

Oscars 2009 Best Film Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Actor Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Actress Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Director Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Supporting Actor Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Supporting Actress Betting

Slumdog Millionaire is now best priced at 4/9 with Boylesports to win Best Film at the Oscars. Most of the other bookmakers have been scared off and go as short as 1/5. Danny Boyle’s film has been backed from about 1/2 on the betting exchanges into 2/5.

Now that I have seen the film I can’t say that I’m in a better place to bet than before. It was well directed and I was impressed with young Dev Patel. However, one problem is that that it doesn’t accurately follow the book, which is beautifully written and highly recommended, whether you’ve seen the hyped film or not.

Readers may disagree, but the storyline is soppy and the dancing business at the end is cringe-worthy.  Don’t get me wrong, I still enjoyed the film! The problem is that the Academy loves feel good movies and films that have been financially successful, so it will probably win. At this stage there looks like no stopping Slumdog Millionaire, and I wouldn’t be put off that it has fewer Oscar nominations than The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.

I also have mixed feelings about Benjamin Button, which was recently backed into 4/1, only to weaken out to 9/2. It is almost 3 hours long, and it takes Brad Pitt a long time to age backwards. I enjoyed the storyline and the makeup was excellent.

It is difficult to find opposition to Slumdog, but William Hill have recently cut Milk into 10/1. I would be extremely surprised if Slumdog Millionaire didn’t win a BAFTA (1/4), which could see its Oscar price cut further.

bookies.com is an odds comparison site, where you can check out Oscars Betting:

Oscars 2009 Best Film Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Actor Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Actress Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Director Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Supporting Actor Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Supporting Actress Betting

BAFTAs 2009 Best Film Betting

BAFTAs 2009 Best Director Betting

BAFTAs 2009 Best Actor Betting

BAFTAs 2009 Best Actress Betting

BAFTAs 2009 Best Supporting Actor Betting

BAFTAs 2009 Best Supporting Actress Betting

BAFTAs 2009 Outstanding British Film Film Betting

I got excited when our alternative, 7/2 Anne Hathaway, took over favouritism at 2/1. She is now a 6/1 chance, so don’t quite write her off yet!

William Hill are offering 1/5 that Kate Winslet wins at least one Oscar, and 15/8 that she wins 2 or more. She has already been nominated 5 times without winning an award, and you can get 4/1 that she goes home empty handed.

Kate is 4/6 favourite with Paddy Power to win Best Actress, but Sally Hawkins has emerged as another serious contender. We said that she should be ‘by no means ruled out’ at 5/1 and is now 2/1 after winning the Golden Globe in the comedy section.

Elsewhere Slumdog Millionaire is a very warm order at 2/5 to win Best Film after it won the equivalent Golden Globe. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button is next at 5/1, although it failed to win a Golden Globe from 5 possible categories.

bookies.com is an odds comparison site, where you can check out Oscars Betting:

Oscars 2009 Best Film Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Actor Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Actress Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Director Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Supporting Actor Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Supporting Actress Betting

BAFTA’s Betting

9/4 Kate Winslet (Revolutionary Road)

Really should become a 7 time Oscar nominee, but whether she will finally win is another question. The Academy probably want to give her an award, and Kate will be hoping that they don’t classify her role in The Reader as a lead. Of the 10 actors that have been nominated in both the lead and supporting categories in the same year, 6 won an award. I think that The Reader, a film about the Holocaust, will go down better than Revolutionary Road. At 9/4, I’m happy to look elsewhere for a bet.

5/2 Meryl Streep (Doubt)

Hasn’t won since Sophie’s Choice, which was released in 1982! The film Doubt looks like a long shot in the Best Film betting, but Meryl Streep has the chance to win Best Actress. Her character is very likable, and the story focuses on sexism and coverups in the Catholic Church. I’m not sure how it will go down on the night, but her drift in the Golden Globes market is alarming, out to 3/1 from 5/2. The Golden Globes don’t always work out as a form guide before the Oscars, but I’d rather bet on an actress that was gathering momentum in the market.

7/2 Anne Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married)

The problem about the 7/2 on offer is that everyone loves Anne Hathaway in this movie, but opinion is divided on the film itself. The Academy loves the younger contenders in this category, meaning that Anne has a terrific chance. If Revolutionary Road flops, Hathaway could mop up at tasty odds of 7/2. She has made the transition from the ‘popcorn’ movies and is a good campaigner. She is best priced at 11/4 for a Golden Globe, so her true price for an Oscar may in fact be shorter than the 7/2. Taking it now is a bit risky before other bookmakers open markets, but I’m happy enough with the price.

5/1 Sally Hawkins (Happy-Go-Lucky)

If she gets nominated, Sally Hawkins has a good chance of winning. Paddy Power are of the same opinion, and go 5/1 from 8/1. She has picked up a few critics’ award, but the same was true for Naomi Watts, who didn’t get an Oscar nomination. My advice would be to tread carefully, but I would by no means rule her out.

6/1 Kristin Scott Thomas (Il y a longtemps que je t’aime)

8/1 Angelina Jolie could pick up a nomination this year, but she hasn’t had one since 1999. If she is back in favour, I fancy that Kristin Scott Thomas will be the casualty. The latter is also a 6/1 long shot for a Golden Globe, but she was brilliant in Il y a longtemps que je t’aime. It’s the only film that I’ve seen on this shortlist – Scott Thomas plays Juliette, who goes to live with her younger sister after a long spell in jail. French films punch above their weight at the Oscars, such as Amélie Poulain, Les Choristes and Le Scaphandre et Le Papillon, which got 4 nominations last year.

Recommendation:

4pts @ 7/2 Anne Hathaway Best Actress in a Leading Role

Latest Prices (22 February 2009):

1/3 Kate Winslet

14/1 Anne Hathaway

7/2 Meryl Streep

bookies.com is an odds comparison site, where you can check out both Oscars Betting and Golden Globes Betting:

Oscars 2009 Best Film Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Actor Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Actress Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Director Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Supporting Actor Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Supporting Actress Betting

BAFTA’s Betting

7/4 Slumdog Millionaire

I would’ve been happy to take the original price of 2/1, but now the best price you can find is 7/4 with William Hill. This film should be at the top of anyone’s list, simply because it has had to build an audience, as it doesn’t have the big studio behind it. This prize likes to recognize films that are financially successful, and Slumdog Millionaire ticks that box. For that reason, 7/4 looks like a fair price.

6/1 Milk

Milk wasn’t nominated in the Best Picture category in the Globes, but it is pretty solid in the betting at 6/1. That price looks pretty short, as I give it a similar chance to both Frost/Nixon and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. Sean Penn’s portrayal of California’s first openly gay elected official will be popular, not least because it’s a politcally apt topic. To be honest, I’d rather put my money on Sean Penn in the Best Actor category.

16/1 Doubt

May eventually get out-grossed by Slumdog Millionaire, but Doubt has to be recognised as another financial success. The first available price was 5/1, but now you can get 16s, maybe because Meryl Streep’s performance has been criticized for one reason or another. Doubt picked up the most Screen Actors Guild nominations, but the same ‘curse’ befell Into The Wild last year.

5/1 The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

I haven’t seen this one, but apparently it is very ordinary and simply helped by its star appeal. Cate Blanchett and Brad Pitt add great weight to this film’s popularity and I’m interested that the Paddy Power now go 5/1 from last week’s 8/1. The film is about an 80 year old man who ages backwards (i.e. gets younger with time) and is described by its director as ‘dark’ and ‘romantic’. Its 3 day total came to $27.2 million – these financially successful films always tend to do well.

8/1 Frost/Nixon

Kevin Bacon deserves an Oscar sometime soon, and could be decent value to pick one up this year in the Best Supporting Actor Category for his performance as an aide in Frost/Nixon. This film should make the final 5, but Ron Howard’s films always come across to me as both slow and a bit static. I’ll confess to not having seen this film yet, but it isn’t worthy of best picture. The interview part has been criticized for being repeatedly interrupted.

Aside from the market leaders, 16/1 The Wrestler could have an outside chance. The Dark Knight is a 25/1 underdog, but has the potential to cause a stunning upset.

Latest Prices (22 February 2009):

1/7 Slumdog Millionaire

13/2 The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

25/1 Milk

bookies.com currently has odds on the 3 main Academy Awards:

Best Film Betting

Best Actress Betting

Best Actor Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Director Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Supporting Actor Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Supporting Actress Betting

BAFTA’s Betting

It’s the time of year when the showbiz world turns their attention towards the Oscars, which take place on 22 February 2009. As we start a new year’s betting on Bookies Blog, we’ll be looking for some long term value bets to keep us afloat.

Over the next few days we’ll be looking at the front-runners in the main 3 categories, to scrutinise the favourites and see if there could be any upsets to the betting. Click the links to be taken to each individual preview or just go to our Oscars Betting section of the blog to find out the latest developments.

• Best Film Betting Preview
• Best Leading Actor Betting Preview
• Best Leading Actress Betting Preview
• BAFTAs Betting Preview
• Slumdog Millionaire

In the Directing category, Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire is 1/2 with Centrebet, followed by 3/1 David Fincher for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. The Dark Knight is a 14/1 outsider in the Best Film category, but director Christopher Nolan has a great chance in this one (10/1).

The best Supporting Actor category will be very prohibitive thanks to Heath Ledger, who must surely pick up the award for his performance as the Joker in The Dark Knight. Skybet have priced him at 1/4.

Penelope Cruz is the even money (1/1) favourite in the best Supporting Actress category, although 4/1 Viola Davis and 6/4 Kate Winslet are close behind. Kate Winslet is a potential nominee for 2 films this year: The Reader and Revolutionary Road. With 5 Golden Globe nominations to her name this year, she has to be considered from a betting angle.

The Adapted Writing category could also go the way of Slumdog Millionaire, which has 4 Golden Globe nominations.  The story is about a child from Mumbai who makes it onto the Indian version of Who Wants to be a Millionaire? Others that will be in contention are Doubt and also The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.

In the Original Writing category, Vicky Cristina Barcelona could take it for Woody Allen. The romantic comedy has had great reviews and has had 4 Golden Globe Nominations. It got an 80% rating on Rotten Tomatoes and is Allen’s best film since Match Point in 2005. Rachel Getting Married and Milk will be at the front of the betting, but Changeling could be an outside bet. If I was to have a bet at this stage, I’d probably take WALL-E for some serious value. It has been gathering momentum and could make headlines this year. Expect it to take the Animated Feature Film category.

bookies.com is an odds comparison site, where you can check out the Oscars Betting:

Oscars 2009 Best Film Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Actor Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Actress Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Director Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Supporting Actor Betting

Oscars 2009 Best Supporting Actress Betting

BAFTAs 2009 Best Film Betting

BAFTAs 2009 Best Director Betting

BAFTAs 2009 Best Actor Betting

BAFTAs 2009 Best Actress Betting

BAFTAs 2009 Best Supporting Actor Betting

BAFTAs 2009 Best Supporting Actress Betting

BAFTAs 2009 Outstanding British Film Film Betting