Here are the runners for the 2010 John Smiths Grand National, which will be run at 4:15pm on Saturday 10 April at Aintree. It will be screened live on BBC1 in High Definition (HD) for the first time. The trip is a gruelling four miles and four furlongs and the going will be ‘good to soft’. Last year’s hero Mon Mome bids for a repeat win, but there are plenty of other runners worthy of a punt on Saturday afternoon.

7/1 Big Fella Thanks

Finished sixth last year as a novice, and looked in fine order when winning the Raymond Mould Supporting Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase at Newbury. After that win he shot up the betting into 10s from 20s, but owner Harry Findlay hasn’t yet backed his runner.

The jockey booking of Ruby Walsh is a massive positive given that he could have chosen stablemate Tricky Trickster. Big Fella Thanks could be well backed on the day, but Paul Nicholls has sent out a shocking total of 44 losers in this race….

12/1 Mon Mome

Last year’s 100/1 shock winner was a dream result for the bookies, but this year he is bound to attract more money. He completed the course in 2008 aswell so clearly loves the place, and was given a great ride by the young Liam Treadwell. The dismal record of French-bred chasers was emphatically reversed by Mon Mome’s heroics.

The last horse to win back-to-back Nationals was Red Rum, but Mon Mome finished a gallant third in Imperial Commander’s Cheltenham Gold Cup. The worry for backers is that he has gone up 7lbs for last year’s success, but there could be more to come.

14/1 Black Apalachi

Won the 2008 Becher Chase at Aintree over the perilous National fences, but ideally needs more rain to fall before the race.

14/1 The Package

Jockey Timmy Murphy has chosen 2008 winner Comply Or Die, but The Package is very well weighted for a big run in the National. He is an improving novice and stays beyond three miles, and ran with credit to finish second to Chief Dan George at the Cheltenham Festival. Seven-year-olds have a poor record in this race though, and he looks a better bet for the Bet365 Gold Cup at 14/1 with Betfred.

14/1 Arbor Supreme

This horse is only 14/1 because of the ‘McCoy factor’, and AP isn’t even riding Arbor! This young Irish runner will be ridden by Paul Townend. Interesting jockey booking if this really is JP McManus’ best chance in the race.

16/1 Snowy Morning

Looked the likely winner in 2008, but finished a decent third on that occasion. Completed the course last year and has yet again been aimed at this race by trainer Willie Mullins. It is eyecatching that he only has to carry 10st13lb this year compared with a whopping 11st8lb last year.

18/1 Niche Market

Won last year’s Irish National, but didn’t run that well at Cheltenham last time out. Stamina is assured.

16/1 Character Building

Sold this week to Mr & Mrs Thompson, who run Cheveley Park Stud. Grey horses have a terrible record in the National but the same connections bought 1992 winner Party Politics just three days before the big race.

20/1 State of Play

Finished fourth in this last year, but his dismal run in the 2009 Hennessy is a bit worrying for me. A fresh horse nonetheless and may by punted on the day.

20/1 Tricky Trickster

Went up 3lbs for winning the Aon Chase at Newbury, but he ran a stinker in the Cheltenham Gold Cup when well-fancied to place at odds of 14/1. Has loads of stamina, but could something be amiss?

20/1 Don’t Push It

AP McCoy rides, so sure to be well-backed on the day by the housewives. Don’t Push It won at this meeting last year…

20/1 Vic Venturi

Won the Becher Chase last November, which has been won by previous National winners Silver Birch, Earth Summit & Amberleigh House over the years. Obvious chance.

25/1 Backstage

Won earlier on in the season at Ffos Las but needs the ground to dry out. Trainer could also have Silver Birch in the race.

20/1 Comply Or Die

Partnered by Timmy Murphy, Comply Or Die has finished first and second in his two Nationals. Something of a course specialist.

25/1 Can’t Buy Time

Doesn’t have much in the way of encouraging form.

28/1 Ballyholland

Trainer Colin McBratney is hopeful that his Irish raider will run well if the ground dries out a bit more.

33/1 Dream Alliance

Won Welsh National in 2009, can he do the double for his Welsh syndicate?

40/1 Cloudy Lane

The 2008 favourite has missed his best chance of winning this race.

40/1 Hello Bud

Has plenty of stamina but will be ridden by an inexperienced jockey. Sam Twiston-Davies is currently studying for his A-levels!

40/1 Irish Raptor

Won the Topham Chase last year at 8/1 for Nigel Twiston-Davies.

40/1 Maljimar

Horses that have won over three miles or further are at a great disadvantage, but Maljimar has had an interesting prep this season with this race in mind. Connections were devastated to miss out on last year’s race by just one place. He is guaranteed to travel strongly through the race if he jumps round, but stamina may find him out in the closing stages. One to back.

40/1 Kings John’s Castle

Finished second in 2008 and jockey Paul Carberry thinks he’s in good form.

40/1 My Will

Third last year at 8/1 for Ruby Walsh and Paul Nicholls but has had a poor season. Is 40/1 a big price? Didn’t excel in his Gold Cup prep as he did last year.

50/1 Eric’s Charm

Trainer hopeful of a ‘good show’ but Eric’s won’t be entirely suited by the track.

66/1 Madison Du Berlais

66/1 also in the 2008 National, but fell at the canal turn on that occasion. Has been a revelation since winning the 2008 Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury for the David Pipe team, but unlikely to get involved under the burden of top weight.

66/1 Royal Rosa

66/1 Joe Lively

Has had a poor season by his standards.

66/1 Ballyfitz

My favourite of the long shots. Has had a mixed season of chasing and hurdling, but I can see him getting involved here at a big price.

66/1 Ellerslie George

Don’t think so.

66/1 Palypso De Creek

Another seven year old. Discount.

66/1 Flintoff

Part-owned by the cricketer Andrew Flintoff. Go with Mon Mome instead for the same trainer.

66/1 Cerium

Ran a blinder to finish fifth with a cracked skull at 100/1 last year.

66/1 Nozic

Likes really soft ground. Only positive is that he is partnered by last year’s winning jockey Liam Treadwell. Owned by Coral bookmakers and The Sun newspaper.

100/1 Beat The Boys

Dreadful form. Would be 1000/1 if a different trainer.

100/1 Preists Leap

Would only have a chance if this race was transferred to Gowran Park at the last minute!

100/1 Piraya

Light weight but David Pipe has better chances with Madison Du Berlais, The Package and finally Comply Or Die.

125/1 Made In Taipan

Doubtful stayer.

125/1 Ollie Magern

High class on his day, but prefers Wetherby as a track.

125/1 Conna Castle

Don’t bother wasting your money on this one.

150/1 Pablo Du Charmil

No hoper.

150/1 Knowhere

First reserve now.

Recommended Bets (both each way, 5 places):

1. Maljimar 40/1 (William Hill)

2. Snowy Morning 16/1 (Totesport, Corals, Canbet)

bookies.com is your best bet for checking out the odds on the 2010 Grand National:

Aintree Grand National 2010 Betting Odds

Number of false starts betting odds

Jockey Specials

JP McManus Special

Winning Trainer Specials

Today’s Totesport Bowl Chase is a Grade 1 steeplechase taking place at Aintree at 3:10pm, live on BBC2 for British viewers. Denman fell in last year’s edition and handed victory to Madison Du Berlais. The 2010 Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Imperial Commander is back in action today and is a short priced favourite to record another big win for the Twiston-Davies team.

11/10 Imperial Commander

Imperial Commander is a worthy favourite but has drifted significantly in the betting market. Punters may be worried that he had a hard race in the Gold Cup and that his best form is at Prestbury Park. Both Denman and Kauto Star have flopped in this race after running in the Gold Cup.

The one to beat.

100/30 What A Friend

Owned by Sir Alex Ferguson and won the Lexus Chase in Ireland. What A Friend will be partnered by Ruby Walsh and has won four times from six starts over fences.

9/2 Nacarat

Won last year’s Racing Post Chase and is best round flat tracks like Aintree and Kempton. Stable jockey Sam Thomas is still injured but AP McCoy knows Nacarat very well.

A popular front-running grey.

14/1 Carruthers

Also runs from the front, and finished fourth in the Gold Cup. Likes the ground very soft.

20/1 Calgary Bay

20/1 looks a big price for such a genuine chaser, but he may not be classy enough to win this. Ran a sound race in the Gold Cup last time out, but may need the favourites to disappoint in order to get involved.

bookies.com is your best bet for checking out the odds on the Totesport Bowl Chase:

Totesport Bowl Chase Betting Odds

Liverpool Hurdle Betting Odds

Aintree Grand National 2010 Betting Odds

Number of false starts betting odds

Jockey Specials

JP McManus Special

Winning Trainer Specials

Tuesday’s Mares Hurdle was a two horse race in the betting, but Friday’s Denman v Kauto showdown in the Totesport Gold Cup has been billed as one of the races of the century, and has a similar betting complexion.

So far this Festival, the Bookies Blog team have seen the two odds-on favourites get comprehensively walloped. Dunguib and Master Minded disappointed many, but there will be some each-way punters that saw those results coming. Will Big Bucks win the World Hurdle easily today at 4/6? Maybe. But that’s not a price I want to be taking in a competitive championship race.

* * *

8/1 Cooldine, 8/1 Imperial Commander and 14/1 Tricky Trickster are all worthy Gold Cup winners, but the paying punters on course want this year’s Gold Cup to materialise into a two horse race.

The one worry for trainer Paul Nicholls’ two ten year olds is that 15 of the last 16 winners have been aged between seven and nine…

Are you a Kauto fan? Is he still a bet at 8/13, or is Denman gigantic each-way value at 4/1?

4/6 KAUTO STAR

Kauto Star has been kept fresh since his blistering win in the King George on Boxing Day 2009, and it bodes well for Kauto fans that six of the eight previous winners of this race did not run in the same calendar year.

This blog has made no secret of its allegiance to the great Kauto Star, and its just a real pleasure to see him winning over and over again. Even if he were to fall at the first fence and get retired after this race, he will still be remembered as a true great. However, optimists will be already backing him for the 2011 Gold Cup at 5/2 with Skybet!

Kauto won his 4th King George Chase last year by 36 lengths, but on the balance of his performances, he prefers flat tracks like Kempton Park.

I don’t think the real Kauto turned up in 2008, and it would be unwise to pick holes in his performances. Ever since being he has sported a noseband, he hasn’t made a single jumping error. C’mon Ruby Walsh!

4/1 DENMAN

Much has been made about Denman’s new jockey, AP McCoy, but the fact is that Sam Thomas is injured and therefore he wouldn’t have got the ride anyway. Kauto’s jockey Ruby Walsh was quoted in The Times this week as saying that National Hunt results are 99% down to the horse itself. So yes, McCoy had a shocker in the Aon Chase and fell from Denman at short odds of 1/6, but Denman should improve a bundle for that run.

Front-runners have won six of the last 28 renewals of the Gold Cup, but I fear that Denman may have a fight on his hands this year up front with the pacey Carruthers. Ruby Walsh knows Denman well enough not to let him get first run up the Cheltenham hill, so don’t expect to see Kauto Star come from way off the pace.

On ratings Denman has 11lb to find with the favourite, but his fans will still hope that Denman can repeat his 2008 win and ‘break Kauto’s heart’ one final time.

The Newbury debacle wasn’t the ideal prep race though, and he certainly has to recover mentally. To his benefit, Denman has only had 13 runs over fences, compared with Kauto’s 23. Therefore some pundits could argue that Denman has more scope for improvement, albeit at the ripe old age of 10.

Corals tempted punters with 9/2 last week about Denman, but that was hoovered up by his legion of fans. If the expected rain doesn’t come though, his starting price could be bigger than the 4s currently available.

* * *

An interesting market is the ‘Gold Cup without Kauto and Denman’. Imperial Commander and Cooldine have both won around the course, and are the 15/8 joint favourites. Calgary Bay has been the subject of bizarre support and is 16s from 33s.

bookies.com is your No.1 bet for comparing Cheltenham Festival betting odds:

Triumph Hurdle

Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle

Cheltenham Gold Cup

Last year’s 6/4 Champion Hurdle favourite, Binocular, could still run in the 2010 edition, despite having previously been ruled out by trainer Nicky Henderson.

It had been reported that Binocular was suffering from a muscle problem, but he has now been given the thumbs up from the vets at the Henderson yard.

The French-bred hurdler has been beaten twice by Go Native this season, but a win in a Listed Hurdle event at Sandown Park led to renewed optimism about his Champion Hurdle bid this year.

Binocular (pictured) is a best-priced 12/1 now with Boylesports to be crowned Champion Hurdler, in what looks to be a wide open race without any outstanding candidate. William Hill go 10/1 and will refund you bet if he doesn’t line up.

He is a 20/1 chance on Betfair, as there is still a doubt that he will run. Layers have a chance to collect their winnings before the race is even run, but should he line up, they could face damaging liabilities. £52 has been matched at 999/1!

AP McCoy would be retained to ride Binocular for his boss JP McManus, which would leave Zaynar jockey-less, as it has been understood that Barry Geraghty will ride last year’s champion Punjabi. Top jockeys Ruby Walsh and Paddy Brennan both have fancied rides, so it may mean that Felix De Giles gets the leg up on Victor Chandler’s grey star.

bookies.com is your No.1 bet for comparing Cheltenham Festival betting odds:

Supreme Novices Hurdle

Arkle Chase

Champion Hurdle

Neptune Investment Management Novices Hurdle

RSA Chase

Champion Chase

Ryanair Chase

World Hurdle

Triumph Hurdle

Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle

Cheltenham Gold Cup

As ever, we have some terrific racing action to look forward to this Saturday.

The Eider Chase up in Newcastle will be one of the biggest betting races – a 4m1f Grand National trial where stamina is the name of the game. Comply Or Die took this in 2008 before his Aintree heroics, and to me 8/1 Iris De Balme looks the pick of the bunch. I am also a fan of Tarquinius at 16/1, as he always stays on at the end of his races.

Friday update: Newcastle has been rained off.

If Dubai isn’t enough to satisfy fans of flat racing, then they can also look forward to the Winter Derby Trial at Lingfield Park. Gitano Hernando is 10s for the Dubai World Cup, and he really ought to take this at odds of 4/5.

However, we are going to head to Kempton’s jumps action to try and find a good bet. The Racing Post Chase is off at 3.05pm, and is a handicap race over three miles. Triumph Hurdle favourite Mille Chief is also in action, and is 1/2 to win his race.

7/2 Nacarat

Nacarat won this last year at 10/1, and I was surprised to see odds of 9/1 about him repeating that win when the antepost market for this race opened a few weeks ago. 7/2 is a more realistic price now, but he is still entitled for support with AP McCoy taking the ride from the suspended Sam Thomas. McCoy has a good record on the grey, who is a Kempton specialist and ran a cracker in the King George.

I strongly believe that he’ll at least be placed in the first three.

This is what we said about his chances last year…

10/1 Nacarat will be ridden by AP McCoy, and will go well fresh. His form is very erratic, so I don’t think he’ll carry my money. He should be well supported in the betting tomorrow though.

4/1 Kilcrea Castle

Emma Lavelle’s Kilcrea Castle has been very well backed this week, and made a pleasing debut for his new stable at Ascot. If you like this one you’d be mad not to take Sky Bet up on their 50/1 quote for the Grand National.

4/1 Fistral Beach

Paul Nicholls won this race in 2008 with Gungadu, and commands respect in any big race on Saturdays. Ruby Walsh is going to have to do ten stone to get the ride, but Fistral Beach had a terrible spell of ‘seconditis’ and has to race from out of the handicap. Will his recent win bring about a change in attitude? Punters will certainly hope so.

7/1 Miss Mitch

This mare will relish the testing ground and is another horse that’s been well backed for victory.

Betting Update: Withdrawn on Friday afternoon. Reported to be lame at home.

7/1 Madison Du Berlais

Carries the top weight of 11st12lbs and is a favourite of this blog. Forget his last race where he was beaten by Tarnis – he clearly hates Cheltenham and should never set foot there again. He beat Denman twice last year, loves flat tracks and will be suited by the good gallop in this race set by Nacarat.

In my eyes he is a Grade 1 animal and his main threat is the front-running Nacarat, who carries 4lb less than Madison.

12/1 Atouchbetweenacara

Paul Beck has now returned his horses to Venetia Williams. Atouchbetweenacara was touted a a possible Hennessy horse earlier this season, and went down on many lists. The boylesports.com Gold Cup looked the ideal race for him, but he could only manage 11th at 8/1. I think he’s one to keep an eye on for a Festival handicap in March.

14/1 Oedipe

Oedipe’s handicap mark has come down from 146 gradually, and as a result only has to carry 10st. Nicky Henderson won this race in 2004.

14/1 Piraya

Recent winner at Warwick for the David Pipe team, but I prefer the stable-mate, Madison Du Berlais.

25/1 Razor Royale

Could’ve finished closer on his most recent Sandown start, but the handicapper may have the edge over Razor Royale after his November win.

25/1 Private Be

Trainer Philip Hobbs has a good record in this race, and if you are looking for an outsider, I would take Private Be. Looked to have every chance when going down to The Sawyer at Cheltenham, who has since run a blinder behind Monet’s Garden…

25/1 Le Burf

33/1 Something Wells

33/1 Bible Lord

66/1 Ollie Magern

Best Bets:

2pts @ 7/1 Madison Du Berlais

1pt Forecast: 1st Madison Du Berlais. 2nd Nacarat.

bookies.com is your best bet for comparing horse racing odds:

Racing Post Chase Betting Odds

Adonis Juvenile Hurdle Betting

Pendil Novices Chase Betting

Grand National 2010 Antepost Betting Odds

Cheltenham Festival Betting Odds

All the major high street bookies are now taking antepost bets on next Monday’s Irish Grand National, to be run at Fairyhouse over 3m5f. The ground is currently described as ‘good to yielding’.

The biggest priced winner of the race in the last 5 year’s was Mouse Morris’ Hear The Echo at 33/1 (sadly collapsed on Saturday), but we’ll take a look at the first ten in the betting to see if they merit their prices.

9/1 Wichita Lineman

The last time Jonjo O’Neill raided Ireland was Exotic Dancer in the 2008 Lexus Chase. Wichita Lineman is the 4th top weight, but is still the antepost favourite. The McCoy (pictured on Binocular) factor is certainly at play, but he is a proven stayer. Prone to the odd blunder, so the odds may be more rewarding in-running.

10/1 Emma Jane

Surprisingly Willie Mullins has never won this race. Could be well handicapped at 9-12, she beat Southern Vic and Chelsea Harbour at Naas last time out. She should stay the trip and will certainly be shorter on the day if Ruby is on board. Will appreciate good ground.

10/1 Royal County Star

Tony Martin’s 2008 runner-up in this race is 6lbs higher this year and only one 10 year old has won since 1998. That’s no reason to overlook him, and he should run a big race on good ground. David Casey is on board, but the stable is in dreadful form.

He was travelling so well last year that he was matched at 1.25, but he didn’t really stay the trip.

11/1 Notre Pere

Many fancied Notre Pere for the Gold Cup and Grand National after winning the Welsh National and then running a creditable 2nd to Neptune Collonges in the Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup. He faces a stiff task off top weight (11-12), but remember he beat favourite Mon Mome at Chepstow!

12/1 Arbor Supreme

Has already won over course and distance last November and is another one for JP McManus. Beaten by One Cool Cookie last time out.

12/1 Pomme Tiepy

In from 16s, but the last 6 year old to win was Rhyme ‘n’ Reason in 1985. Beaten favourite on her last three runs.

14/1 Rare Bob

4th in this year’s Moriaty Chase – behind the likes of Cooldine and Forpadydeplasterer. Unraced beyond 3m, but this novice jumps well.

14/1 Garde Champetre

Nina Carberry is on board but the horse’s best form is over the Cheltenham cross country course.

14/1 Casey Jones

I backed him in the RSA Chase, in which he almost ran into the places. Has the stamina to run a big race on Monday.

14/1 Drumconvis

Another for Tony Martin, Drumconvis was 2nd to Tricky Trickster at the Festival. Beaten 20 lengths by Casey Jones at Leopardstown in December, but I prefer him to Royal County Star at the weights.

And finally one at a crazy price…..

100/1 Battle Axe

Only carries 9 stone. He beat the smart J’y Vole in his last race but is still available at a giant 100/1 with William Hill. May not stay the trip.

bookies.com is your best bet for comparing Irish Racing odds

Irish Grand National Betting

Irish 1000 Guineas Betting

Irish 2000 Guineas Betting

Ruby Walsh starts the Aintree meeting with the fancied Big Buck’s and Hebridean, but the horse in focus on Thursday is 2008 Gold Cup winner Denman.

7/1 Denman was our each way selection in this year’s Gold Cup, but tommorrow he is a very warm order at 10/11 for Sam Thomas.

The bookies will surely be out to get him, so it wouldn’t surprise me if his SP was odds-against. He hasn’t won for more than a year, but his Gold Cup 2nd to stablemate Kauto Star was very encouraging.

For those who have to have a bet in every race, I cannot advise lumping on the favourite at such a short price.

5/1 about Denman for the 2010 Cheltenham Gold Cup looks a better value bet.

10/1 Star De Mohaison also runs for the champion trainer, and he deserves his each way supporters. His Aintree record is 2 wins from 2 starts.

7/2 Exotic Dancer swerves the National for this 3m1f race and although I’ve never backed him before on the basis of the McCoy factor, I feel he should place. Punters could try their hand at a reverse forecast, but I’m looking for something at a bigger price.

100/1 Snoopy Loopy looks tired after a long season, whilst Ryanair Chase disappointment 25/1 Our Vic is getting old.

16/1 Madison Du Berlais could run a big race on the flat track, but ideally wants it softer. Sue Smith has been in good form, but 100/1 outsider Mister McGoldrick isn’t classy enough to land the spoils.

12/1 Albertas Run is my tentative pick on good ground. His Aintree record is 123, but his Gold Cup was certainly disappointing considering he had form around Prestbury Park.

bookies.com is your best bet for comparing odds for the Aintree meeting:

Totesport Bowl Betting

Liverpool Hurdle Betting

Grand National Betting

2010 Gold Cup Betting

The John Smith’s Grand National is undoubtedly the most famous steeplechase in the world, run over an astonishing 4m4f. Thrills and spills are guaranteed – you’d be mad not to have a small wager on the race this Saturday (4.15pm, BBC1).

bookies.com compares the odds of all forty runners, to find you the best value. We are also previewing the race in depth to see if we can help you find a winner.

Victor Chandler are now Free Fall, i.e. if your selection falls they’ll refund the bet.

Bet365, BetInternet, Blue Square, Boylesports, Paddy Power and Stan James are all paying 5 places in the National.

• Saturday Betting Update

9/1 My Will

Ruby Walsh rides My Will for Paul Nicholls – the last time he did so was in 2003 on Shotgun Willy. Ruby could’ve chosen the likes of Southern Vic, Big Fella Thanks or Irish Invader, so punters will take it as a sign that this year’s Gold Cup fifth has a very strong chance.

The good ground isn’t a worry and according to his handicap mark he is 8lb well in, after his handicap mark was revised from 152 to 160.

The reason that I’m taking on this favourite is that Paul Nicholls has only had one horse placed out of 40 in the National. With a few high-profile defections, My Will will have to carry over 11st (probably 11st 4lbs) – a major concern.

9/1 Butler’s Cabin

1) AP Mc Coy hasn’t won the National in 14 attempts.

2) AP Mc Coy’s rides are always over-bet.

3) Too much weight.

4) Fell last year, also at 10/1.

10/1 Rambling Minster

A 14,000 guineas bargain, Rambling Minster won the Blue Square Gold Cup for the Reveley family this year. He will stay all day and is 6lb well in according to the weights. James Reveley is a promising young jockey, with a 30% strike rate for Guillaume Macaire in France.

14/1 State Of Play

State of Play won the Hennessy Gold Cup for Evan Williams two seasons ago and won the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby last year. He has been kept fresh for the race, and goes well on flat tracks. Stamina is no concern, but his handicap mark is still quite high. This will only be his 14th chase, so he could still be ahead of the handicapper. One for my shortlist.

16/1 Black Apalachi

Denis O’Regan rides the 2008 Becher Chase winner for Dessie Hughes, but he only made in to the second fence in last year’s National. He will have a lot of weight to carry at 11st 5lbs and the jockey is coming back from injury. Not for me.

18/1 Parsons Legacy

Hobbs has been firing in the winners lately and Parsons Legacy looks to have a place chance. 3rd in last year’s Scottish National, Parsons will like the ground and goes well fresh. Has been gambled.

16/1 Hear The Echo

Mouse Morris sends over Hear The Echo instead of the fancied War Of Attrition. Hear The Echo won the Irish Grand National last spring from out of the handicap. The form of the race reads pretty well, with Notre Pere back in 3rd. Perhaps too much weight to be a danger.

18/1 Comply Or Die

Last years’ 7/1 winner cost the bookies millions. Red Rum was the last horse to successfully defend his crown, but I think the odds for Comply Or Die will be shorter on the day. His last run at the Cheltenham Festival was encouraging, but he is set to carry 9lbs more than last year. Up against it.

20/1 Darkness

Charlie Egerton’s star has been injury prone over the years, but has been aimed at this race. He will love the distance and should be partnered by Dominic Elsworth. If you take the form of a 2008 Haydock Handicap literally, he beat Rambling Minster by 20 lengths, yet on Saturday he will be 7lbs better off.

An impressive winner of the Totescoop6 Veterans’ Handicap Chase in February, he is 8lbs well-in.

22/1 Big Fella Thanks

Christian Williams rides Big Fella for Harry Findlay and Paul Nicholls, but for me, it’s a case of Big Fella No Thanks. No seven year old has wont the National since 1940, and even though this one has been well backed, he is a quirky sort. Turned over in the Racing Post Chase at 7/2 (fav).

22/1 Southern Vic

Southern Vic hasn’t won for trainer Ted Walsh since 2006, but if the ground came up soft, this mudlark would be a cracking bet at the price. He is a good jumper on his day and will relish the trip. Ruby prefers My Will because of the ground, and who can blame him. There is still a chance some rain could fall on Saturday morning, in which case Southern Vic would be a decent bet.

22/1 L’Ami

Enda Bolger thinks that L’Ami is in with a shout this year, and if AP Mc Coy chose to ride him, his odds would be more like 10/1. The 10 year old ran well at The Festival recently, but he ended the career of Mick Fitzgerald at the 2nd fence last year.

22/1 Kilbeggan Blade

Kilbeggan Blade is reported to be in fine form, and is given a chance now that the Tom George yard is back in form. Jockey Graham Lee won the 2004 National on board Amberleigh House.

25/1 Irish Invader

Willie Mullins is taking a chance that the pedigree will see Irish Invader throughout the trip, because stamina-wise he only has a 3m novice chase to his name. Perhaps Mullins has been hiding him from the handicapper deliberately, but punters are taking a bit of a risk with this one.

33/1 Snowy Morning

Last year’s 3rd now looks shockingly handicapped at 11st 8lbs given his patchy form this season. Pass.

33/1 Himalayan Trail

Jimmy Mangan won with Monty’s Pass six years ago and Himalayan Trail has a decent shout this year in my opinion. His spin over hurdles at Naas in February is best forgotten because of the ground. Himalayan Trail goes well in warm conditions and on good ground. He has the requisite stamina after winning the Midlands National last year by 22 lengths.

He was 5th in the Becher Chase at Aintree despite bad ground. Barry Geraghty could be on board.

33/1 Maljimar

Still needs a couple to come out, but he could be worth chancing at this stage before the odds tumble. He was last seen to good effect coming 2nd to Wichita Lineman in the William Hill Trophy and has only had 2 runs this season. However he has never raced at Aintree before and his stamina over this trip is unproven.

Cornish Rebel is by the same sire (Un Desperado) and was pulled up halfway in the 2006 National.

1st Reserve.

33/1 Cornish Sett

This blog’s 33/1 each way selection in the Welsh National will be ridden again by Nick Scholfield. He was 12th last year, weakening towards the end, suggesting that the trip is a concern.

33/1 Offshore Account

Capable of a big run – finished 2nd in a handicap hurdle at Navan so could be anything. Check out the market because any support should be noted nearer the time of the race. He jumps and stays and has beaten several in this field before.

Subject to a shrewd gamble this week and I like the fact that David Casey rides.

33/1 Brooklyn Brownie

Will like decent ground and Malcolm Jefferson thinks that Brownie is worth his place in the field. Jefferson’s best chance of a winner at the Aintree meeting comes in the shape of Cape Tribulation in the John Smith’s Mersey Novices’ Hurdle.

40/1 Cloudy Lane

This year’s top weight faces a mammoth task, and disappointed at 7/1 last year, only managing 6th.

50/1 Battlecry

Tom Scudamore rides Battlecry, but only three eight year olds have won in the last 35 years. Pass.

50/1 Silver Birch

If getting into a good jumping rhythm, the 2007 33/1 winner could be a decent bet in running on Betfair. He won’t have any problems with the ground and he won a point to point race in February after recovering from injury. There is a great chance that Silver Birch will complete the course, so rates as a decent wager.

50/1 Priests Leap

Double winner of the Thystes Chase ideally wants heavy ground.

50/1 Mon Mome

Venetia Williams is in form and Mon Mome gets the trip. 10th last year, but never in contention.

50/1 Can’t Buy Time

Jonjo O’Neill thinks that Can’t Buy Time will get the trip and is happy with his jumping.

He look tired up the Cheltenham Hill when last seen 4th to Tricky Trickster, and is a 7 year old.

66/1 Golden Flight

An interesting one for Nicky Henderson but French bred horses have a bad record. His best effort to date was 3rd in the Gras Savoye Grand Steeple-Chase de Paris for Guillaume Macaire.

66/1 Knowhere

A class act on his day, but in his two National runs he has unseated his rider twice. Jumping errors will porbably cost him, but he was in touch until the 25th fence last year. Another to watch the market with.

66/1 Idle Talk

Nibbled at from 100/1, Idle Talk was 14th from 15 finishers last year, but unseated Jason Maguire in 2007. He got round to finish 4th in the 2008 Becher Chase, so I guess that you could make a case for him snatching a place in exceptional circumstances.

80/1 Chelsea Harbour

Has run ten times since finishing a solid 9th in last year’s race, but 11st 8lbs will surely be too much for him to carry to victory this year.

100/1 Stan

Very doubtful that he will stay.

100/1 Zabenz

Given an outside chance going on old form, and could squeak into a place at mammoth odds.

125/1 Eurotrek

This 13 year old won the 2006 Becher but was pulled up when hampered in Silver Birch’s National. Sam Thomas rides for Paul Nicholls so you’d have to give it a slim chance, but Eurotrek is really up against it.

125/1 Ollie Magern

Jockey Sam Waley-Cohen has a good record over the National fences, but this 11 year old needs to dominate, which will be a tough task with 40 runners. Ollie Magern has been unplaced in 3 Aintree starts.

150/1 Fleet Street

Hasn’t won beyond 3 miles.

150/1 Musica Bella

Will be ridden by Philip Carberry for French maestro François Cottin. Bella’s Auteuil form isn’t anything special, but the mare looks well handicapped at 10st 10lbs.

Her 2nd in the Prix la Haye Jousselin suggests that the distance won’t be an issue, and she should handle the big obstacles. A very interesting long shot but the last mare to win was Nickel Coin in 1951.

150/1 Reveillez

JP McManus has never won the National, but he appears to hold a good hand this year. Reveillez is a long shot having made jumping errors on his 2 Cheltenham starts this year, but had some fair form in 2007.

Aintree record: 1 run, 1 win…

200/1 Fundamentalist

Beat Rambling Minster in the 2008 Veteran’s Chase at this course, but fell at the 3rd in last year’s National.

250/1 Kelami

Last win came over hurdles in France in 2006. Poor record in the National: 2008, Unseated rider. 2007, Pulled up. 2004, brought down.

300/1 Arteea

Very hard to fancy on the basis of his last run in the Kim Muir.

600/1 Cerium

Out of his depth in the Gold Cup and would be a shocker for punters.

Recommendation:

1. Darkness 33/1 (William Hill, Stan James etc.)

2. State Of Play 16/1 (Ladbrokes)

3. Musica Bella 100/1 (Totesport, Ladbrokes etc.)

4. Himalayan Trail 33/1 (Corals, Betfred etc.)

Recommended odds correct as of 30 March 2009.

bookies.com is your best bet for comparing this year’s Grand National Odds.

Grand National Race Winner Betting

Age Of Winner

Aintree Going

Trainer Specials

Weight Carried By Winner

Winning Distance

Aintree Top Jockey

Irish Trained Winner

Winning Owner

Winning Trainer

A first fence failure

It’s all in the name

Those three little words

What price the winner?

What will start favourite for the National?

What’s the weather like?

What’s your favourite price?

Grand National Specials

The Grand National is the next highlight of the jumps season, but we will also be covering the bet365 Gold Cup meeting and Punchestown.

With only 15 days to go to the big race (April 4), the bookmakers have already priced up a few specials. Whether they all clear the first fence is a lottery (11/4), but there is still some value to be found elsewhere.

I’m not talking about Ladbrokes’ ‘Tony McCoy to win the National‘ at 10/1. That will be popular with many, and could be a good back to lay option. Skybet go 2/7 that he rides favourite Butlers’ Cabin, who fell at Becher’s Brook last year.

Butler’s Cabin put in an eye-cattching performance at the Festival, so punters may prefer just to stick their cash on the horse, who is 12/1 favourite with Ladbrokes. That said, there is always a chance that McCoy chooses King Johns Castle (7/2), although he was unplaced on his seasonal debut. In which case the 25/1 odds will disappear.

I think that several punters will get stuck into the favourite, after the 7/1 jolly Comply Or Die obliged last year. It would come as no shock to see the favourite get sent off at 6/1 or shorter, which is a 15/2 chance with Skybet.

Festival hero Ruby Walsh is 10/11 to ride My Will for Paul Nicholls, who ran a blinder in the Gold Cup. My Will is currently a 12/1 chance, having been 25/1 before the Gold Cup. If Ruby chooses My Will, he should be sent off favourite, currently a 10/3 chance.

Personally I think he could choose Southern Vic, for his father Ted. That outcome has already been gambled from 7/1 into 7/2. Paul Nicholls has never won the national (My Will, Big Fella Thanks) and Ruby got his first National win on board Papillon (10/1) for his father.

An Irish trained winner is a 7/4 chance, but I like the 4/1 on offer for a winner priced over 20/1. That has happened 3 times in the last 8 years, so statistically you are getting good value.

The other bet that I like is for a winner with 3 words in its name at 7/4. Alternatively I could just back War Of Attrition at 33/1 who applies to those 3 markets!

bookies.com is the best place to compare the antepost markets:

Grand National Betting

Many punters will be looking to get thier festival off to a flyer in the Supreme Novices by backing 5/2 Cousin Vinny, but I am happy to wait 35 minutes until the Arkle Chase over 2m.

If you are looking to survive the 4 days of the festival, you simply cannot have a bet in every race. Just stick to one’s where you have fancies and have studied the opposition.

Arkle favourite Tatenen was turned over at odds-on at Leopardstown last time out, so I’m already concerned. The 4/1 favourite is probably overbet due to the Nicholls-Walsh combination. 5 year olds no longer get a weight allowance and the last 2 winners were 7 years old. Another troubling stat is that only 1 favourite has obliged in the last 10 years.

I’m looking for value but the longest-priced winner of this race in the last 12 years was 11/1 Flagship Uberalles in 1999.

11/2 Calgary Bay has finished 2nd in 7 of his 11 starts – oppose.

10/1 Kalahari King needs good ground, but heavy rain is forecast for Monday night. Soft ground is a possibility and is 2/1 with the bookies at the moment.

Which brings me to ORIGINAL (pictured), a 20/1 outsider with William Hill. The 66/1 Kempton winner doesn’t conform to all the statistical trends, but then again Katchit didn’t last year.

He trounced Grade 2 opposition and is a very imposing horse. His size may mean that he find the downhill sections of Cheltenham difficult, but he will fly up the hill.

His form at Auteuil is fair enough, and Original acts on soft and heavy ground – so Monday night rain wouldn’t be a concern.

How about jockey James Davies? He only picked up the Kempton ride because the top jockeys were reluctant, and connections have stuck with him for the Arkle. This season he has only had 3 winners in 151 runners – a 2% strike rate. He has never ridden a winner at Cheltenham. OK, that sounds concerning, but take a look at his 19 rides at the course since April 2004. They include the likes of 500/1 Turnium and 100/1 Redspin. His 3 horses shorter than 10/1 have all finished in the first 4.

Trainer Marcel Rolland in in good form across the Channel, with 4 winners in his last 15 runs, including last Tuesday’s Quinté at Enghien.

This doesn’t look like a vintage renewal of the Arkle, and I think Original is over-priced at 20/1.

Recommendation:

2pts each way @ 20/1 Original (William Hill)

bookies.com is your best bet for comparing odds for the Cheltenham Festival.

Arkle Chase Betting

Gold Cup Betting

Champion Hurdle Betting

Champion Chase Betting

World Hurdle Betting